How can you Justify Poeltl over Ellenson

[chilidawg]

 You guys do make some good points about Poeltl, but the original point is are the Celtics really in a position to take a better "fit" guy I'm Jakob.

 When we really need a star, and Ellenson certainly has more Star attributes...

Star attributes in the Kevin Love sense?  Or in the Tim Duncan winning basketball sense?  I think Poeltl has more of the latter.

What?? How does Poeltl have a Tim Duncan winning basketball sense..

I think what chillidawg is saying is Pieltls game translates better to winning basketball while Ellenson maybe more of a stat sheet filler type guy. A better comp maybe love vs Marc gasol. Minn live put up huge stats but didn't win Gasol on the other hand dominates the game but not always the box score.

Pretty much, thanks.

[nickagneta]

 He's Dirk Nowitzki that has More Guard Skills, but also a great rebounder with his size, and not the shooter Dirk is.

He is nowhere near being Dirk. Just because he is white, tall and has a similar shooting style doesn't make him Dirk. I laugh every time some tall white guy who prefers to shoot outside and play the perimeter gets compared to Dirk. Dirk had unreal talent at the same age as Ellenson, Olynyk, Kaminsky or any other guy that gets compared to Dirk. These guys will just never be on that level.

Ellenson compares more favorably to an Olynyk, or Kaminsky or Channing Frye. Good. Big. Some passing skills but they just don't have the talent or athleticism to take it to the next level. Probably a 6th man level player, maybe a serviceable starter.

[Roy H.]

 He's Dirk Nowitzki that has More Guard Skills, but also a great rebounder with his size, and not the shooter Dirk is.

He is nowhere near being Dirk. Just because he is white, tall and has a similar shooting style doesn't make him Dirk. I laugh every time some tall white guy who prefers to shoot outside and play the perimeter gets compared to Dirk. Dirk had unreal talent at the same age as Ellenson, Olynyk, Kaminsky or any other guy that gets compared to Dirk. These guys will just never be on that level.

Ellenson compares more favorably to an Olynyk, or Kaminsky or Channing Frye. Good. Big. Some passing skills but they just don't have the talent or athleticism to take it to the next level. Probably a 6th man level player, maybe a serviceable starter.

Yeah, I was just about to compare him to a less athletic Channing Frye.  Dirk is a once in a generation player.  Not every white guy who has any semblance of a jumper should be considered the next Dirk / Larry.

[LooseCannon]

Ellenson is your basic versatile, skilled offensive player who has questions about his ability to defend in the NBA due to his relative lack of athleticism.  He does have some decent length working in his favor, despite being seen as a below the rim player.

He has starter potential if he can be an adequate defender and bust potential if he is too much of a defensive liability.  I think he's more of an all-or-nothing prospect than someone you can project as a solid bench player.

Poetl seems like he has solid defense with reasonable upside on offense because he is still learning a lot about how to play. 

It sounds to me like Ellenson has a better shot of becoming a go-to scorer but Poetl has a better shot of giving you star-level production that may be underrated because he doesn't score as much. 

[tarheelsxxiii]

I don't think you can gamble with pick #4-6 -- if he is still available, you take Timofey Mozgov.

[PhoSita]

Ellenson is your basic versatile, skilled offensive player who has questions about his ability to defend in the NBA due to his relative lack of athleticism.  He does have some decent length working in his favor, despite being seen as a below the rim player.

He has starter potential if he can be an adequate defender and bust potential if he is too much of a defensive liability.  I think he's more of an all-or-nothing prospect than someone you can project as a solid bench player.

Poetl seems like he has solid defense with reasonable upside on offense because he is still learning a lot about how to play. 

It sounds to me like Ellenson has a better shot of becoming a go-to scorer but Poetl has a better shot of giving you star-level production that may be underrated because he doesn't score as much.

Thing is, Ellenson seems like he has a pretty good chance of turning into something like Sullinger or Julius Randle on offense -- versatile and skilled, yes, but so inefficient you don't want him taking many shots.

[hwangjini_1]

Ellenson is your basic versatile, skilled offensive player who has questions about his ability to defend in the NBA due to his relative lack of athleticism.  He does have some decent length working in his favor, despite being seen as a below the rim player.

He has starter potential if he can be an adequate defender and bust potential if he is too much of a defensive liability.  I think he's more of an all-or-nothing prospect than someone you can project as a solid bench player.

Poetl seems like he has solid defense with reasonable upside on offense because he is still learning a lot about how to play. 

It sounds to me like Ellenson has a better shot of becoming a go-to scorer but Poetl has a better shot of giving you star-level production that may be underrated because he doesn't score as much.

Thing is, Ellenson seems like he has a pretty good chance of turning into something like Sullinger or Julius Randle on offense -- versatile and skilled, yes, but so inefficient you don't want him taking many shots.

this is an interesting observation and i am interesting in learning more. what lead you to this conclusion, may i ask? i dont know much on ellensen, save draftexpress info. in the video i watched, he seemed quite good at scoring, especially a great, quick jumpshot.

what might make his style of play inefficient? i had thought that with CBS offensive schemes he would fit into the celtics.

[KG Living Legend]

 I'd like to see his shot chart%. I have a feeling if a good coach like Brad gets a hold of him he can make him a more efficient player.

 In the games I've seen he's great around the basket, and driving to the hoop, not so great jacking three's and deep two's.
 

[chilidawg]

Here's a video of Poeltl against Tarczewski of Arizona.  Poeltl definitely gets moved around a bit by the stouter Tarczewski, but he's 3 years younger.  Impressed by his mobility, and he has one nice drive where he shows his ability to put the ball on the floor.  Mobililty is key I think in a modern big man so that you can switch and defend the perimeter if need be.

http://www.draftexpress.com/article/Jakob-Poeltl-vs-Kaleb-Tarczewski-Matchup-Video-Breakdown-5386/

Be sure to watch with the sound muted, the music is awful.

[guava_wrench]

I'm not really going to do much looking at draft prospects until after the Celtics season is over, but I am amused that NBAdraft.net comparisons are:
Poeltl - Andrew Bogut
Ellenson - Brian Scalabrine/Brian Cardinal

It almost feels like choosing between Cauley-Stein and Kaminsky.

 

Poeltl's at least as likely to become Omer Asik or Kosta Koufos, but the Bogut comparison is nice to ponder. 

So, Asik/Koufos or Scal/Cardinal? The bad case you mention still matches up fine to the alternative. Unless we are counting broadcasting skill.

[chilidawg]

Why do we have to compare them to white guys?

Watching Poeltl's videos he actually reminds me of Zeller in the way he moves.  He's much more mobile than Asik or Kofous.  Hopefully he'll be a better defender than Zeller.   

[PhoSita]

what might make his style of play inefficient? i had thought that with CBS offensive schemes he would fit into the celtics.

Generally when guys who seem to be athletically gifted, with good size, struggle to score at the college level, it doesn't bode well for them becoming efficient scorers at the NBA level.

Ellenson is shooting 44% from the field in college, and 27.6% from the the college three (on 3+ attempts per game). 

That field goal percentage is actually a significant improvement from where he was at just a few weeks ago.  I remember checking recently and it was like 42%.  He's had a lot of rough games from the floor.

4-15 against Georgetown; 7-17 against Wisconsin; 8-18 against San Jose State; 1-8 against Iowa; 4-13 against St. John's.

He's also had plenty of games shooting around 45-55%, so it's not all bad.  I just tend to like my college big man prospects to be dominant in terms of scoring at that level. 

Kelly Olynyk scored almost 18 points per game on roughly 63% shooting his last year at Gonzaga. 

Poeltl is scoring 17.6 points per game on 65% shooting.

[Ilikesports17]

what might make his style of play inefficient? i had thought that with CBS offensive schemes he would fit into the celtics.

Generally when guys who seem to be athletically gifted, with good size, struggle to score at the college level, it doesn't bode well for them becoming efficient scorers at the NBA level.

Ellenson is shooting 44% from the field in college, and 27.6% from the the college three (on 3+ attempts per game). 

That field goal percentage is actually a significant improvement from where he was at just a few weeks ago.  I remember checking recently and it was like 42%.  He's had a lot of rough games from the floor.

4-15 against Georgetown; 7-17 against Wisconsin; 8-18 against San Jose State; 1-8 against Iowa; 4-13 against St. John's.

He's also had plenty of games shooting around 45-55%, so it's not all bad.  I just tend to like my college big man prospects to be dominant in terms of scoring at that level. 

Kelly Olynyk scored almost 18 points per game on roughly 63% shooting his last year at Gonzaga. 

Poeltl is scoring 17.6 points per game on 65% shooting.

Ellenson is a freshman
Kelly was a Junior
Poeltl is a sophomore

Ellenson shoots a lot of 3s at a pretty bad rate which drags him down. Hes shooting 50% on 2s which isnt great but its not as bad as the 44 makes him sound

[byennie]

Well sure, but Ellenson is already getting credit for being a freshman. If he was doing this as a junior, there would be no debate vs Poeltl. If he stays in school one more year does he automatically project to play defense and shoot 60%?

Higher risk, higher reward because KO and Poeltl both achieved at a higher level than Ellenson currently is. But as you say, it's early and he could still be the best of the bunch years down the line.