Author Topic: Zach Lowe: C's "recoiled" at price for Dwight,may still have interest....  (Read 29305 times)

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Re: Zach Lowe: C's "recoiled" at price for Dwight,may still have interest....
« Reply #45 on: February 16, 2016, 05:00:37 PM »

Offline tomrod

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Howard is no longer a number 1 guy on a championship team. So you cant pay him like he is. If he wants that money he's not getting it from Ainge.

Plus, he is 30 and declining, Ainge wants a bigger championship window this time. If he could get him for 16 a year he would consider it.

The plan is to get him for cheap. We have disposable assets, like the picks that the team doesnt want to use all of them, Sullinger that wants a contract the Celtics wont pay, same with Amir, Jerebko and Zeller fo different reasons. Maybe one of them is on the long term plan, but everyone is replaceable. So he could get him for assets than are not on the team's plan, and make a run in the playoffs and try to convince Howard that he can be great here for a lesser price.

You can say the same about almost everybody in the NBA.

Is westbrook the #1 guy on a championship team?  What about Draymond Green?  What about Kevin Love?  Blake Griffin?  John Wall?  Kyle Lowry?  Klay Thompson? Deandre Jordan?

If you thing any one of those guys would get any less than a max deal with the stats they're putting up this season, youre dreaming.

When you have a $90m Cap and almost every team in the league has cap space, you dont med to be the #1 guy on a championship team to be worthy of a max contract.

Dwight Howard is an elite defensive player, an elite rebounder, is a very productive offensive player who can dominate that end of the floor some nights.

Like it or not, that is EASILY a max contract player in a league where Tristan Thompson and Greg Monroe are on max deals.

Howard's max is way more than those guys cause he has played in the league more. And no, he doesn't deserve that, and any team paying him that will not be a contender, since you are basically giving him money to be your best player.

Re: Zach Lowe: C's "recoiled" at price for Dwight,may still have interest....
« Reply #46 on: February 16, 2016, 05:30:59 PM »

Offline Evantime34

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If the price on Howard keeps dropped and we only need to include Lee and our first then there is no reason not to do the deal, even if Howard will walk to end the year.
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Re: Zach Lowe: C's "recoiled" at price for Dwight,may still have interest....
« Reply #47 on: February 16, 2016, 05:35:11 PM »

Offline crimson_stallion

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Howard is no longer a number 1 guy on a championship team. So you cant pay him like he is. If he wants that money he's not getting it from Ainge.

Plus, he is 30 and declining, Ainge wants a bigger championship window this time. If he could get him for 16 a year he would consider it.

The plan is to get him for cheap. We have disposable assets, like the picks that the team doesnt want to use all of them, Sullinger that wants a contract the Celtics wont pay, same with Amir, Jerebko and Zeller fo different reasons. Maybe one of them is on the long term plan, but everyone is replaceable. So he could get him for assets than are not on the team's plan, and make a run in the playoffs and try to convince Howard that he can be great here for a lesser price.

You can say the same about almost everybody in the NBA.

Is westbrook the #1 guy on a championship team?  What about Draymond Green?  What about Kevin Love?  Blake Griffin?  John Wall?  Kyle Lowry?  Klay Thompson? Deandre Jordan?

If you thing any one of those guys would get any less than a max deal with the stats they're putting up this season, youre dreaming.

When you have a $90m Cap and almost every team in the league has cap space, you dont med to be the #1 guy on a championship team to be worthy of a max contract.

Dwight Howard is an elite defensive player, an elite rebounder, is a very productive offensive player who can dominate that end of the floor some nights.

Like it or not, that is EASILY a max contract player in a league where Tristan Thompson and Greg Monroe are on max deals.

Howard's max is way more than those guys cause he has played in the league more. And no, he doesn't deserve that, and any team paying him that will not be a contender, since you are basically giving him money to be your best player.

That is quite flawed logic.

Kevin Love is no better a player than Howard is right now, he's just as injury prone, he has just as many personality question marks, and he has declined FAR more than Howard has (production wise).  The only argument to defend Love is that the Cavs aren't using him right and he's buried behind Lebron, which is dropping his production...and you could make the exact same argument for Howard / Harden.  Even moreso in fact, since Harden is even more of a ball hog than Lebron is.

The only difference is that Howard has PROVEN that he can carry a team deep in the playoffs, while Love hasn't even proven he can carry a team TO the playoffs.

Yet Cleveland paid Kevin Love a max deal which was pretty much just as high as Howard's max would be, the Cavs are CLEARLY a contender.

People here give Howard far too little credit.  All this talk of his dramatic decline, etc.  What is this based on?

Dwight Howard this year is averaging only 8.8 FGA Per game and he's averaging 14.6 PPG.  That's a scoring production of 1.66 Points Per FGA. 

For his career he's averaging 11 FGA and 18 PPG, which equates to 1.64 Points Per FGA...so he is scoring at the exact same rate (if anything, slightly higher rate) as he has over the entirety of his career.

His Free Throw Rate this year is 81.1%, versus his career rate of 81.5%.

He's shooting 75% inside three feet this year, versus 71.5% for his career.

He's average 13.4 rebounds Per 36 this year, versus 12.9 Rebounds /36 for his career.

His turnovers (2.7 TO /36) this year are the lowest since his sophomore year, and below his career average (which is 3.1 TO /36).

His fouls, assists and steals are all dead on par with his career averages.

The only two statistical categories in which Howard's numbers have dropped significantly are scoring (16.3 Points Per 36 this year vs 18.2 for his career) and shot blocking (1.6 Blocks Per 36 this year vs 2.1 for his career). 

Both are pretty modest drops, and the scoring drop entirely due to the fact that his field goal attempts have dropped by 1.5 Per 36 compared to his career attempts (this easilly explains the extra 1.9 points Per 36).

There is absolutely ZERO statistical evidence to indicate that Howard has declined significantly when compared to his career production.   His numbers simply don't look as impressive because he's playing second fiddle to the  greatest ball hog since Kobe Bryant, and because his minutes are down by some 3 MPG versus his career.

You put Howard on a team like the Celtics (which has a roster makeup not unlike the Orlando teams Howard carried to the Finals and ECF) and you're absolutely insane if you think having Howard on this team would be anything less that a complete difference maker. 

With the extra touches he'd get here his numbers should instantly rise back up to 18/12 guy he was in back in the Lakers days, and when he's putting up those numbers there is absolutely zero argument about whether he's a max contract guy.

I really don't get how people argue that Dwight isn't a max guy, but seem to have no problems trading for Love (on his max deal) or extending Horford (which would take a max deal)...and when just about everybody on here was utterly in favour of signing Marc Gasol on a max deal. 

Howard at his best is far more dominant than any of those guys.  He's also a more proven winner, since he's the only one of those four guys who has ever led his team deep in the playoffs as their #1 guy. 

The ONLY valid arguments against trading for Dwight are personality concerns and injury history.  They are both fair arguments, but if you use the personality argument then you need to apply that to Love as well...and if you use the injury argument then you need to apply that to Love, Horford AND Gasol.

At the end of the day it's blatantly clear that personal bias (i.e. not liking the guys personality) is ultimately the one thing holding people back.   

That's fine as an excuse to not want to trade for him, but you can't use that to argue whether or not somebody is good enough to deserve a max deal.  Howard is, and that is absolutely 100% undeniable. He is on par with ANY center in the NBA right now not named Demarcus Cousins.
« Last Edit: February 16, 2016, 05:43:12 PM by crimson_stallion »

Re: Zach Lowe: C's "recoiled" at price for Dwight,may still have interest....
« Reply #48 on: February 16, 2016, 05:35:14 PM »

Offline rondohondo

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If the price on Howard keeps dropped and we only need to include Lee and our first then there is no reason not to do the deal, even if Howard will walk to end the year.

even if it costs

Lee
Sully
Dal 1st
Bos 1st
Plus 2nd's

I do the deal . Sully isn't going to last long in this league at his weight . Plus he needs to be resigned . I would rather offer Howard 20-25 mil a year than sign Sully for 10-15 a year .

Re: Zach Lowe: C's "recoiled" at price for Dwight,may still have interest....
« Reply #49 on: February 16, 2016, 05:39:52 PM »

Offline rondohondo

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Howard is no longer a number 1 guy on a championship team. So you cant pay him like he is. If he wants that money he's not getting it from Ainge.

Plus, he is 30 and declining, Ainge wants a bigger championship window this time. If he could get him for 16 a year he would consider it.

The plan is to get him for cheap. We have disposable assets, like the picks that the team doesnt want to use all of them, Sullinger that wants a contract the Celtics wont pay, same with Amir, Jerebko and Zeller fo different reasons. Maybe one of them is on the long term plan, but everyone is replaceable. So he could get him for assets than are not on the team's plan, and make a run in the playoffs and try to convince Howard that he can be great here for a lesser price.

You can say the same about almost everybody in the NBA.

Is westbrook the #1 guy on a championship team?  What about Draymond Green?  What about Kevin Love?  Blake Griffin?  John Wall?  Kyle Lowry?  Klay Thompson? Deandre Jordan?

If you thing any one of those guys would get any less than a max deal with the stats they're putting up this season, youre dreaming.

When you have a $90m Cap and almost every team in the league has cap space, you dont med to be the #1 guy on a championship team to be worthy of a max contract.

Dwight Howard is an elite defensive player, an elite rebounder, is a very productive offensive player who can dominate that end of the floor some nights.

Like it or not, that is EASILY a max contract player in a league where Tristan Thompson and Greg Monroe are on max deals.

Howard's max is way more than those guys cause he has played in the league more. And no, he doesn't deserve that, and any team paying him that will not be a contender, since you are basically giving him money to be your best player.

That is quite flawed logic.

Kevin Love is no better a player than Howard is right now, he's just as injury prone, he has just as many personality question marks, and he has declined FAR more than Howard has (production wise). 

The only difference is that Howard has PROVEN that he can carry a team deep in the playoffs, while Love hasn't even proven he can carry a team TO the playoffs.

Yet Cleveland paid Kevin Love a max deal which was pretty much just as high as Howard's max would be, the Cavs are CLEARLY a contender.

People here give Howard far too little credit.  All this talk of his dramatic decline, etc.  What is this based on?

Dwight Howard this year is averaging only 8.8 FGA Per game and he's averaging 14.6 PPG.  That's a scoring production of 1.66 Points Per FGA. 

For his carerr he's averaging 11 FGA and 18 PPG, which equates to 1.64 Points Per FGA. 

His Free Throw Rate this year is 81.1%, versus his career rate of 81.5%.

He's shooting 75% inside three feet this year, versus 71.5% for his career.

He's average 13.4 rebounds Per 36 this year, versus 12.9 Rebounds /36 for his career.

His turnovers (2.7 TO /36) this year are the lowest since his sophomore year, and below his career average (which is 3.1 TO /36).

His fouls, assists and steals are all dead on par with his career averages.

The only two statistical categories in which Howard's numbers have dropped significantly are scoring (16.3 Points Per 36 this year vs 18.2 for his career) and shot blocking (1.6 Blocks Per 36 this year vs 2.1 for his career). 

Both are pretty modest drops, and the scoring drop entirely due to the fact that his field goal attempts have dropped by 1.5 Per 36 compared to his career attempts (this easilly explains the extra 1.9 points Per 36).

There is absolutely ZERO statistical evidence to indicate that Howard has declined significantly when compared to his career production.   His numbers simply don't look as impressive because he's playing second fiddle to the  greatest ball hog since Kobe Bryant, and because his minutes are down by some 3 MPG versus his career.

You put Howard on a team like the Celtics (which has a roster makeup not unlike the Orlando teams Howard carried to the Finals and ECF) and you're absolutely insane if you think having Howard on this team would be anything less that a complete difference maker. 

With the extra touches he'd get here his numbers should instantly rise back up to 18/12 guy he was in back in the Lakers days, and when he's putting up those numbers there is absolutely zero argument about whether he's a max contract guy.

I really don't get how people argue that Dwight isn't a max guy, but seem to have no problems trading for Love (on his max deal) or extending Horford (which would take a max deal)...and when just about everybody on here was utterly in favour of signing Marc Gasol on a max deal. 

Howard at his best is far more dominant than any of those guys.  He's also a more proven winner, since he's the only one of those four guys who has ever led his team deep in the playoffs as their #1 guy. 

The ONLY valid arguments against trading for Dwight are personality concerns and injury history.  They are both fair arguments, but if you use the personality argument then you need to apply that to Love as well...and if you use the injury argument then you need to apply that to Love, Horford AND Gasol.

At the end of the day it's blatantly clear that personal bias (i.e. not liking the guys personality) is ultimately the one thing holding people back.   

That's fine as an excuse to not want to trade for him, but you can't use that to argue whether or not somebody is good enough to deserve a max deal.  Howard is, and that is absolutely 100% undeniable. He is on par with ANY center in the NBA right now not named Demarcus Cousins.

100 TPS ( It may take a while for me to dish them out )

Howard on this team make great sense for this year and the future .

Re: Zach Lowe: C's "recoiled" at price for Dwight,may still have interest....
« Reply #50 on: February 16, 2016, 05:40:19 PM »

Offline mctyson

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My guess is that the "recoil" was from both a request for one of Olynyk/Smart and the Brooklyn 2016, plus probably another 1st...and that's for a guy who might walk.

Re: Zach Lowe: C's "recoiled" at price for Dwight,may still have interest....
« Reply #51 on: February 16, 2016, 05:44:56 PM »

Offline j804

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If we don't have to give up a lot it's worth taking the flyer on him, no brainer. I hope Danny sees this doesn't mean we have to pay him. Our defense would be stifling man.
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Re: Zach Lowe: C's "recoiled" at price for Dwight,may still have interest....
« Reply #52 on: February 16, 2016, 05:45:26 PM »

Offline mctyson

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Howard is no longer a number 1 guy on a championship team. So you cant pay him like he is. If he wants that money he's not getting it from Ainge.

Plus, he is 30 and declining, Ainge wants a bigger championship window this time. If he could get him for 16 a year he would consider it.

The plan is to get him for cheap. We have disposable assets, like the picks that the team doesnt want to use all of them, Sullinger that wants a contract the Celtics wont pay, same with Amir, Jerebko and Zeller fo different reasons. Maybe one of them is on the long term plan, but everyone is replaceable. So he could get him for assets than are not on the team's plan, and make a run in the playoffs and try to convince Howard that he can be great here for a lesser price.

You can say the same about almost everybody in the NBA.

Is westbrook the #1 guy on a championship team?  What about Draymond Green?  What about Kevin Love?  Blake Griffin?  John Wall?  Kyle Lowry?  Klay Thompson? Deandre Jordan?

If you thing any one of those guys would get any less than a max deal with the stats they're putting up this season, youre dreaming.

When you have a $90m Cap and almost every team in the league has cap space, you dont med to be the #1 guy on a championship team to be worthy of a max contract.

Dwight Howard is an elite defensive player, an elite rebounder, is a very productive offensive player who can dominate that end of the floor some nights.

Like it or not, that is EASILY a max contract player in a league where Tristan Thompson and Greg Monroe are on max deals.

Howard's max is way more than those guys cause he has played in the league more. And no, he doesn't deserve that, and any team paying him that will not be a contender, since you are basically giving him money to be your best player.

That is quite flawed logic.

Kevin Love is no better a player than Howard is right now, he's just as injury prone, he has just as many personality question marks, and he has declined FAR more than Howard has (production wise).  The only argument to defend Love is that the Cavs aren't using him right and he's buried behind Lebron, which is dropping his production...and you could make the exact same argument for Howard / Harden.  Even moreso in fact, since Harden is even more of a ball hog than Lebron is.

The only difference is that Howard has PROVEN that he can carry a team deep in the playoffs, while Love hasn't even proven he can carry a team TO the playoffs.

Yet Cleveland paid Kevin Love a max deal which was pretty much just as high as Howard's max would be, the Cavs are CLEARLY a contender.

People here give Howard far too little credit.  All this talk of his dramatic decline, etc.  What is this based on?

Dwight Howard this year is averaging only 8.8 FGA Per game and he's averaging 14.6 PPG.  That's a scoring production of 1.66 Points Per FGA. 

For his career he's averaging 11 FGA and 18 PPG, which equates to 1.64 Points Per FGA...so he is scoring at the exact same rate (if anything, slightly higher rate) as he has over the entirety of his career.

His Free Throw Rate this year is 81.1%, versus his career rate of 81.5%.

He's shooting 75% inside three feet this year, versus 71.5% for his career.

He's average 13.4 rebounds Per 36 this year, versus 12.9 Rebounds /36 for his career.

His turnovers (2.7 TO /36) this year are the lowest since his sophomore year, and below his career average (which is 3.1 TO /36).

His fouls, assists and steals are all dead on par with his career averages.

The only two statistical categories in which Howard's numbers have dropped significantly are scoring (16.3 Points Per 36 this year vs 18.2 for his career) and shot blocking (1.6 Blocks Per 36 this year vs 2.1 for his career). 

Both are pretty modest drops, and the scoring drop entirely due to the fact that his field goal attempts have dropped by 1.5 Per 36 compared to his career attempts (this easilly explains the extra 1.9 points Per 36).

There is absolutely ZERO statistical evidence to indicate that Howard has declined significantly when compared to his career production.   His numbers simply don't look as impressive because he's playing second fiddle to the  greatest ball hog since Kobe Bryant, and because his minutes are down by some 3 MPG versus his career.

You put Howard on a team like the Celtics (which has a roster makeup not unlike the Orlando teams Howard carried to the Finals and ECF) and you're absolutely insane if you think having Howard on this team would be anything less that a complete difference maker. 

With the extra touches he'd get here his numbers should instantly rise back up to 18/12 guy he was in back in the Lakers days, and when he's putting up those numbers there is absolutely zero argument about whether he's a max contract guy.

I really don't get how people argue that Dwight isn't a max guy, but seem to have no problems trading for Love (on his max deal) or extending Horford (which would take a max deal)...and when just about everybody on here was utterly in favour of signing Marc Gasol on a max deal. 

Howard at his best is far more dominant than any of those guys.  He's also a more proven winner, since he's the only one of those four guys who has ever led his team deep in the playoffs as their #1 guy. 

The ONLY valid arguments against trading for Dwight are personality concerns and injury history.  They are both fair arguments, but if you use the personality argument then you need to apply that to Love as well...and if you use the injury argument then you need to apply that to Love, Horford AND Gasol.

At the end of the day it's blatantly clear that personal bias (i.e. not liking the guys personality) is ultimately the one thing holding people back.   

That's fine as an excuse to not want to trade for him, but you can't use that to argue whether or not somebody is good enough to deserve a max deal.  Howard is, and that is absolutely 100% undeniable. He is on par with ANY center in the NBA right now not named Demarcus Cousins.

Very detailed analysis, which one is hard-pressed to argue with.  The problem is that Dwight (as I understand it) can walk after this season, and you have no guarantee that he will stay here as any team can afford him, including his hometown Hawks.

Love is tied up for a few more years.  That is a HUGE difference.

Re: Zach Lowe: C's "recoiled" at price for Dwight,may still have interest....
« Reply #53 on: February 16, 2016, 05:58:00 PM »

Offline tomrod

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Howard is no longer a number 1 guy on a championship team. So you cant pay him like he is. If he wants that money he's not getting it from Ainge.

Plus, he is 30 and declining, Ainge wants a bigger championship window this time. If he could get him for 16 a year he would consider it.

The plan is to get him for cheap. We have disposable assets, like the picks that the team doesnt want to use all of them, Sullinger that wants a contract the Celtics wont pay, same with Amir, Jerebko and Zeller fo different reasons. Maybe one of them is on the long term plan, but everyone is replaceable. So he could get him for assets than are not on the team's plan, and make a run in the playoffs and try to convince Howard that he can be great here for a lesser price.

You can say the same about almost everybody in the NBA.

Is westbrook the #1 guy on a championship team?  What about Draymond Green?  What about Kevin Love?  Blake Griffin?  John Wall?  Kyle Lowry?  Klay Thompson? Deandre Jordan?

If you thing any one of those guys would get any less than a max deal with the stats they're putting up this season, youre dreaming.

When you have a $90m Cap and almost every team in the league has cap space, you dont med to be the #1 guy on a championship team to be worthy of a max contract.

Dwight Howard is an elite defensive player, an elite rebounder, is a very productive offensive player who can dominate that end of the floor some nights.

Like it or not, that is EASILY a max contract player in a league where Tristan Thompson and Greg Monroe are on max deals.

Howard's max is way more than those guys cause he has played in the league more. And no, he doesn't deserve that, and any team paying him that will not be a contender, since you are basically giving him money to be your best player.

That is quite flawed logic.

Kevin Love is no better a player than Howard is right now, he's just as injury prone, he has just as many personality question marks, and he has declined FAR more than Howard has (production wise).  The only argument to defend Love is that the Cavs aren't using him right and he's buried behind Lebron, which is dropping his production...and you could make the exact same argument for Howard / Harden.  Even moreso in fact, since Harden is even more of a ball hog than Lebron is.

The only difference is that Howard has PROVEN that he can carry a team deep in the playoffs, while Love hasn't even proven he can carry a team TO the playoffs.

Yet Cleveland paid Kevin Love a max deal which was pretty much just as high as Howard's max would be, the Cavs are CLEARLY a contender.

People here give Howard far too little credit.  All this talk of his dramatic decline, etc.  What is this based on?

Dwight Howard this year is averaging only 8.8 FGA Per game and he's averaging 14.6 PPG.  That's a scoring production of 1.66 Points Per FGA. 

For his career he's averaging 11 FGA and 18 PPG, which equates to 1.64 Points Per FGA...so he is scoring at the exact same rate (if anything, slightly higher rate) as he has over the entirety of his career.

His Free Throw Rate this year is 81.1%, versus his career rate of 81.5%.

He's shooting 75% inside three feet this year, versus 71.5% for his career.

He's average 13.4 rebounds Per 36 this year, versus 12.9 Rebounds /36 for his career.

His turnovers (2.7 TO /36) this year are the lowest since his sophomore year, and below his career average (which is 3.1 TO /36).

His fouls, assists and steals are all dead on par with his career averages.

The only two statistical categories in which Howard's numbers have dropped significantly are scoring (16.3 Points Per 36 this year vs 18.2 for his career) and shot blocking (1.6 Blocks Per 36 this year vs 2.1 for his career). 

Both are pretty modest drops, and the scoring drop entirely due to the fact that his field goal attempts have dropped by 1.5 Per 36 compared to his career attempts (this easilly explains the extra 1.9 points Per 36).

There is absolutely ZERO statistical evidence to indicate that Howard has declined significantly when compared to his career production.   His numbers simply don't look as impressive because he's playing second fiddle to the  greatest ball hog since Kobe Bryant, and because his minutes are down by some 3 MPG versus his career.

You put Howard on a team like the Celtics (which has a roster makeup not unlike the Orlando teams Howard carried to the Finals and ECF) and you're absolutely insane if you think having Howard on this team would be anything less that a complete difference maker. 

With the extra touches he'd get here his numbers should instantly rise back up to 18/12 guy he was in back in the Lakers days, and when he's putting up those numbers there is absolutely zero argument about whether he's a max contract guy.

I really don't get how people argue that Dwight isn't a max guy, but seem to have no problems trading for Love (on his max deal) or extending Horford (which would take a max deal)...and when just about everybody on here was utterly in favour of signing Marc Gasol on a max deal. 

Howard at his best is far more dominant than any of those guys.  He's also a more proven winner, since he's the only one of those four guys who has ever led his team deep in the playoffs as their #1 guy. 

The ONLY valid arguments against trading for Dwight are personality concerns and injury history.  They are both fair arguments, but if you use the personality argument then you need to apply that to Love as well...and if you use the injury argument then you need to apply that to Love, Horford AND Gasol.

At the end of the day it's blatantly clear that personal bias (i.e. not liking the guys personality) is ultimately the one thing holding people back.   

That's fine as an excuse to not want to trade for him, but you can't use that to argue whether or not somebody is good enough to deserve a max deal.  Howard is, and that is absolutely 100% undeniable. He is on par with ANY center in the NBA right now not named Demarcus Cousins.

I'm sorry but I stopped reading after the Love - Howard comparison. I mean, Love is just younger and better at this point and his max is still less money than Howard's, my point stands. I will read it all later though. But I think you are over valuing Howard.

Re: Zach Lowe: C's "recoiled" at price for Dwight,may still have interest....
« Reply #54 on: February 16, 2016, 05:59:55 PM »

Offline chambers

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I'd prefer Dwight over Horford.

His $30 million salary will have an actual cap hit of $25 million if we get him and decide to pay him the max. I don't wanna give him that much but if we have to spend an extra $5 million a year to retain Dwight for 2 years I'd bite the bullet.
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quoting 'Greg B' on RealGM after 2017 trade deadline.
Read that last line again. One more time.

Re: Zach Lowe: C's "recoiled" at price for Dwight,may still have interest....
« Reply #55 on: February 16, 2016, 06:01:29 PM »

Offline crimson_stallion

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Howard is no longer a number 1 guy on a championship team. So you cant pay him like he is. If he wants that money he's not getting it from Ainge.

Plus, he is 30 and declining, Ainge wants a bigger championship window this time. If he could get him for 16 a year he would consider it.

The plan is to get him for cheap. We have disposable assets, like the picks that the team doesnt want to use all of them, Sullinger that wants a contract the Celtics wont pay, same with Amir, Jerebko and Zeller fo different reasons. Maybe one of them is on the long term plan, but everyone is replaceable. So he could get him for assets than are not on the team's plan, and make a run in the playoffs and try to convince Howard that he can be great here for a lesser price.

You can say the same about almost everybody in the NBA.

Is westbrook the #1 guy on a championship team?  What about Draymond Green?  What about Kevin Love?  Blake Griffin?  John Wall?  Kyle Lowry?  Klay Thompson? Deandre Jordan?

If you thing any one of those guys would get any less than a max deal with the stats they're putting up this season, youre dreaming.

When you have a $90m Cap and almost every team in the league has cap space, you dont med to be the #1 guy on a championship team to be worthy of a max contract.

Dwight Howard is an elite defensive player, an elite rebounder, is a very productive offensive player who can dominate that end of the floor some nights.

Like it or not, that is EASILY a max contract player in a league where Tristan Thompson and Greg Monroe are on max deals.

Howard's max is way more than those guys cause he has played in the league more. And no, he doesn't deserve that, and any team paying him that will not be a contender, since you are basically giving him money to be your best player.

That is quite flawed logic.

Kevin Love is no better a player than Howard is right now, he's just as injury prone, he has just as many personality question marks, and he has declined FAR more than Howard has (production wise).  The only argument to defend Love is that the Cavs aren't using him right and he's buried behind Lebron, which is dropping his production...and you could make the exact same argument for Howard / Harden.  Even moreso in fact, since Harden is even more of a ball hog than Lebron is.

The only difference is that Howard has PROVEN that he can carry a team deep in the playoffs, while Love hasn't even proven he can carry a team TO the playoffs.

Yet Cleveland paid Kevin Love a max deal which was pretty much just as high as Howard's max would be, the Cavs are CLEARLY a contender.

People here give Howard far too little credit.  All this talk of his dramatic decline, etc.  What is this based on?

Dwight Howard this year is averaging only 8.8 FGA Per game and he's averaging 14.6 PPG.  That's a scoring production of 1.66 Points Per FGA. 

For his career he's averaging 11 FGA and 18 PPG, which equates to 1.64 Points Per FGA...so he is scoring at the exact same rate (if anything, slightly higher rate) as he has over the entirety of his career.

His Free Throw Rate this year is 81.1%, versus his career rate of 81.5%.

He's shooting 75% inside three feet this year, versus 71.5% for his career.

He's average 13.4 rebounds Per 36 this year, versus 12.9 Rebounds /36 for his career.

His turnovers (2.7 TO /36) this year are the lowest since his sophomore year, and below his career average (which is 3.1 TO /36).

His fouls, assists and steals are all dead on par with his career averages.

The only two statistical categories in which Howard's numbers have dropped significantly are scoring (16.3 Points Per 36 this year vs 18.2 for his career) and shot blocking (1.6 Blocks Per 36 this year vs 2.1 for his career). 

Both are pretty modest drops, and the scoring drop entirely due to the fact that his field goal attempts have dropped by 1.5 Per 36 compared to his career attempts (this easilly explains the extra 1.9 points Per 36).

There is absolutely ZERO statistical evidence to indicate that Howard has declined significantly when compared to his career production.   His numbers simply don't look as impressive because he's playing second fiddle to the  greatest ball hog since Kobe Bryant, and because his minutes are down by some 3 MPG versus his career.

You put Howard on a team like the Celtics (which has a roster makeup not unlike the Orlando teams Howard carried to the Finals and ECF) and you're absolutely insane if you think having Howard on this team would be anything less that a complete difference maker. 

With the extra touches he'd get here his numbers should instantly rise back up to 18/12 guy he was in back in the Lakers days, and when he's putting up those numbers there is absolutely zero argument about whether he's a max contract guy.

I really don't get how people argue that Dwight isn't a max guy, but seem to have no problems trading for Love (on his max deal) or extending Horford (which would take a max deal)...and when just about everybody on here was utterly in favour of signing Marc Gasol on a max deal. 

Howard at his best is far more dominant than any of those guys.  He's also a more proven winner, since he's the only one of those four guys who has ever led his team deep in the playoffs as their #1 guy. 

The ONLY valid arguments against trading for Dwight are personality concerns and injury history.  They are both fair arguments, but if you use the personality argument then you need to apply that to Love as well...and if you use the injury argument then you need to apply that to Love, Horford AND Gasol.

At the end of the day it's blatantly clear that personal bias (i.e. not liking the guys personality) is ultimately the one thing holding people back.   

That's fine as an excuse to not want to trade for him, but you can't use that to argue whether or not somebody is good enough to deserve a max deal.  Howard is, and that is absolutely 100% undeniable. He is on par with ANY center in the NBA right now not named Demarcus Cousins.

Very detailed analysis, which one is hard-pressed to argue with.  The problem is that Dwight (as I understand it) can walk after this season, and you have no guarantee that he will stay here as any team can afford him, including his hometown Hawks.

Love is tied up for a few more years.  That is a HUGE difference.

That is indeed a valid point, but once again that is no different to the Al Horford situation...yet people seem far less opposed to trading for Horford.

You could also swing that argument the opposite direction.   

When you have a player as 'risky' as Love or Howard, I think I actually prefer to get a one year preview to see how they do on your team, so that if they do miss 3/4 of that time due to injury, or they do prove to not be as good as you hoped, or they do destroy team chemistry...you can elect not to re-sign them.

Ultimately a 2 year deal would be perfect because it gives you enough time to try the player out, without worrying about them killing your team long-term.  Unfortunately none of our targets are on deals like that, so you need to choose between a guy who expires after the season, or a guy who is locked up for 5 years. 

Given the choice, I actually choose the rental.  If we lock in to Love, we are stuck with him.  If he comes to Boston and looks just as bad as he does in Cleveland, then the "lebron" excuse falls aparts, and his trade value falls through the floor.  We would get stuck with a $20M a year contract for the next 4 years that would be practically untradeable - think Amare Stoudemire.

If we take the rental option, at least we get to see how Dwight fits and performs for us, and then Danny has the ability (based on that information) to make an informed decision on whether it's worth offering him the max extension. 

Sure there is some risk of Dwight walking, and there is a risk he won't work out and Danny won't offer him the max.  Those risks are exactly the reason why the guy is available to begin with - Houston is scared he's going to walk so they want to get something back.  As long as we aren't giving up potential core pieces (Smart, Thomas, Bradley, Olynyk, Crowder, 2016 Nets pick) then as far as I am concerned everything else is fair game.


Re: Zach Lowe: C's "recoiled" at price for Dwight,may still have interest....
« Reply #56 on: February 16, 2016, 06:02:24 PM »

Offline Donoghus

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I'm fine with Howard as a rental if the cost is minimal (no BKN picks and no one from the Smart/Crowder/AB/IT4 bunch) but no real interest in locking him long-term.


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Re: Zach Lowe: C's "recoiled" at price for Dwight,may still have interest....
« Reply #57 on: February 16, 2016, 06:05:19 PM »

Offline crimson_stallion

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I'm sorry but I stopped reading after the Love - Howard comparison. I mean, Love is just younger and better at this point and his max is still less money than Howard's, my point stands. I will read it all later though. But I think you are over valuing Howard.

How is it relevant that Love is younger if he is ALREADY declining at a rediculously higher rate than Howard is?

Also how in god's name is Love (who is averaging 15.7 Pts, 10.3 Reb, 2.4 ast, 41.7% FG with average-to-mediocre defense) better than Dwight (who is averaging 14.6 Pts, 12 Reb, 1.5 Ast, 61% FG, and is one of the most dominate defensive players in NBA history)?   

I find that claim incredibly amusing, but alas I will give you an opportunity to justify it just in case I'm missing something.

It's also worth nothing that long, defensive minded bigs have a tendency to remain productive NBA players quite late in their careers - just look at guys like Tim Duncan, KG, Theo Ratliff, Marcus Camby, Dikembe Mutombo, etc.  Even as they got to their 35-36 age range, those guys were still quite productive NBA players who had no trouble finding spots on rosters.

On the other hand, undersized offensive minded bigs tend to decline quite aggressively once they reach their 30's and are usually pretty much out of the league by the time they reach 32 - 33.  Just look at Carlos Boozer, David Lee, David West, Troy Murphy, etc.

Fact is, when you have guys with elite defensive IQ, good rebounding instincts, and great length - those are tools that you do not lose with age.  Your jumpshot might fade and you might lose your ability to finish around the basket...but you'll still be able to impact games with your defense and your rebounding well into your mid 30's despite those declines (KG and Duncan are perfect examples). 

It's much harder for undersized guys, because those guys need to depend more on their mobility to defend and to get rebounding position...and it also gets harder to get shots off against NBA competition (inside and outside) as you start to lose your conditioning.  So once these guys get to around 32 or 33 years old and start to lose a step, they tend to become 15 MPG guys who can't do very much aside from coming off the bench and hitting midrange jumpers.

Given how early undersized bigs tend to decline, combined with the way Love is already declining, the future doesn't look promising for him at all.

Given how long tall defensive minded bigs tend to last, combined with the fact that Dwight (at 30) is STILL putting up numbers on par with his career averages, tells me that his future looks much brighter.

This is assuming he doesn't suffer a career ending injury (knock on wood), but he's really no more risk of that then Love is.
« Last Edit: February 16, 2016, 06:25:18 PM by crimson_stallion »

Re: Zach Lowe: C's "recoiled" at price for Dwight,may still have interest....
« Reply #58 on: February 16, 2016, 06:24:09 PM »

Offline tomrod

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I'm sorry but I stopped reading after the Love - Howard comparison. I mean, Love is just younger and better at this point and his max is still less money than Howard's, my point stands. I will read it all later though. But I think you are over valuing Howard.

How is it relevant that Love is younger if he is ALREADY declining at a rediculously higher rate than Howard is?

Also how in god's name is Love (who is averaging 15.7 Pts, 10.3 Reb, 2.4 ast, 41.7% FG with average-to-mediocre defense) better than Dwight (who is averaging 14.6 Pts, 12 Reb, 1.5 Ast, 61% FG, and is one of the most dominate defensive players in NBA history)?   

I find that claim incredibly amusing, but alas I will give you an opportunity to justify it just in case I'm missing something.

First: Listen, Love is not declining, he is missused. Irving and Lebron, two ball hogs, you only mentioned one.

Second: You keep saying my logic is flawed, yet you cite Howard's past resume as to why we should sign him now. He is just not that player anymore. Case in point: Defensive rating: In the nineties all his years in Orlando, up to 104 now, thats basically what Love is for his career. So there you see his decline, he isnt the defensive force he once was, and its not even close. That was the trait that made him so valuable, and its gone. And its not because he is disgruntled in Houston, it was the same last year, and just a little better in the playoffs.

Third: I dont even think Howard is as good of a fit here. He is ok, but Love is just perfect for Stevens system.

So you are saying you want that player, to be your max player for the next 4 years, you are just never going to get to the finals. Nevermind beating the Warrios or the Spurs. If Howard would agree to a below 20 million per year then maybe its worth considering it, but again, Ainge has said he wants a bigger championship window.


Finally, I think either player is a risk, players like Cousins and Durant are risks for different reasons. But I'm more confident in a 27 year old Love, that has declined when he moved to a system that didnt make an effort to fit him in, than a 30 year Howard, that is showing clear signs of declining.

Re: Zach Lowe: C's "recoiled" at price for Dwight,may still have interest....
« Reply #59 on: February 16, 2016, 06:30:28 PM »

Offline walker834

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Love is worth giving up the nets pick.  Howard isn't. A lot of these guys are risks though.  I'm sort of hoping we just draft.  Maybe Ainge will find something we aren't expecting.  Love is really the guy who is worth it.  Howard is  more a big name and additional piece.   I'm not sure I absolutely want any of these guys.