Zach Lowe: C's "recoiled" at price for Dwight,may still have interest....

[fairweatherfan]

Listening to WEEI. We're apparently not on Dwight's List, per Broussard's sauces? The list being teams that he thinks will re-sign him for the max. I get the feeling he would be very unhappy if traded as a rental.

On his list? Hahahahah. Goes to show you how dim Dwight is, and why his teammates never like him. He clearly doesn't understand his value (or reputation) -- still thinks its 2010 and he's 'the guy'. 

If Howard successfully convinced one NBA franchise to sign him to the full max this summer, I'd be surprised. I'd be even more shocked if a team that trades for him before tomorrow's deadline does, considering the boost in money and year(s) his Bird Rights provide.

In an ordinary year, maybe, but almost every team will have enough cap space to pay Dwight the max, and there are relatively few FAs who are clearly better than him.  You don't think there's a single team that'll bite the bullet and give him the max?  Bird Rights, who knows, but no max whatsoever seems very unlikely.

[ssspence]

Listening to WEEI. We're apparently not on Dwight's List, per Broussard's sauces? The list being teams that he thinks will re-sign him for the max. I get the feeling he would be very unhappy if traded as a rental.

On his list? Hahahahah. Goes to show you how dim Dwight is, and why his teammates never like him. He clearly doesn't understand his value (or reputation) -- still thinks its 2010 and he's 'the guy'. 

If Howard successfully convinced one NBA franchise to sign him to the full max this summer, I'd be surprised. I'd be even more shocked if a team that trades for him before tomorrow's deadline does, considering the boost in money and year(s) his Bird Rights provide.

In an ordinary year, maybe, but almost every team will have enough cap space to pay Dwight the max, and there are relatively few FAs who are clearly better than him.  You don't think there's a single team that'll bite the bullet and give him the max?  Bird Rights, who knows, but no max whatsoever seems very unlikely.

Yes, every team will have some space, but the notion of this exploding cap where any team can spend anything is overblown by most.

 A rival team can offer Dwight $129mil over 4 seasons. A team with his Bird Rights can offer him 5 years @ approx $170mil, I believe (starting at $30mil per season!!).

For context, there's this:

One Eastern Conference executive told Yahoo's Mannix in regards to Howard's expected asking price in the summer, "Three years, $60 million. I'm not going any higher than that," with another saying, "I don't know that I'd make that serious an offer. That back is always going to scare me."

So, a shorter deal, and less than he makes now.

At the end of the day, I could see a small or cold weather market -- one who really struggles to attract FAs -- offering Dwight a 4 year max. But then I look at the teams themselves...

Portland = doubtful. too well run.
Denver = maybe
Minny = no
Milwaukee = no
Cleveland = can't, and likely wouldn't
Philly = no
Boston = no
OKC = no
ATL = no
Orlando = no
NOP = maybe, but doubtful
MEM = no
Toronto = no

open up the list a little and it still looks weak.

would the Heat do it?
would the Mavs do it? Rick Carlisle?

again, I can see some of these teams making him an offer, just not the max in years or $$. I just don't see a bull market for him.

 

[Dino Pitino]

again, I can see some of these teams making him an offer, just not the max in years or $$. I just don't see a bull market for him.

It's not about a bull market for him. It's about a bear market for free agents in general. How much a GM would give Howard in a vacuum is meaningless. How much a GM declares he wants to give Howard months in advance is meaningless. When push comes to shove, and the top 5 or so free agents are snatched up, and there are all these middling teams with max cap room and nothing to spend it on and fanbases clamoring for a splash, Howard will suddenly look a lot better, and the GM who was rational months before will suddenly start talking himself into Howard, and there will be more than one such GM, and so a mini-bidding war will ensue, and Howard will get the max, and the "winning" franchise will almost insta-regret it. Like the desperate scene in a bar before last call when the least-mediocre chick starts looking like a model to dudes with beer goggles, and then the morning after remorse, etc. TLDR, no matter the sport: Never underestimate the willingness of front offices flush with cash but short on options to spend it badly.

[slamtheking]

again, I can see some of these teams making him an offer, just not the max in years or $$. I just don't see a bull market for him.

It's not about a bull market for him. It's about a bear market for free agents in general. How much a GM would give Howard in a vacuum is meaningless. How much a GM declares he wants to give Howard months in advance is meaningless. When push comes to shove, and the top 5 or so free agents are snatched up, and there are all these middling teams with max cap room and nothing to spend it on and fanbases clamoring for a splash, Howard will suddenly look a lot better, and the GM who was rational months before will suddenly start talking himself into Howard, and there will be more than one such GM, and so a mini-bidding war will ensue, and Howard will get the max, and the "winning" franchise will almost insta-regret it. Like the desperate scene in a bar before last call when the least-mediocre chick starts looking like a model to dudes with beer goggles, and then the morning after remorse, etc. TLDR, no matter the sport: Never underestimate the willingness of front offices flush with cash but short on options to spend it badly.

this describes what a really bad front office would do. 

DH shouldn't get the max but someone will likely offer it to him for some number of years in the hopes he can recapture his prime form and to keep the fanbase happy and engaged.

[ssspence]

again, I can see some of these teams making him an offer, just not the max in years or $$. I just don't see a bull market for him.

It's not about a bull market for him. It's about a bear market for free agents in general. How much a GM would give Howard in a vacuum is meaningless. How much a GM declares he wants to give Howard months in advance is meaningless. When push comes to shove, and the top 5 or so free agents are snatched up, and there are all these middling teams with max cap room and nothing to spend it on and fanbases clamoring for a splash, Howard will suddenly look a lot better, and the GM who was rational months before will suddenly start talking himself into Howard, and there will be more than one such GM, and so a mini-bidding war will ensue, and Howard will get the max, and the "winning" franchise will almost insta-regret it. Like the desperate scene in a bar before last call when the least-mediocre chick starts looking like a model to dudes with beer goggles, and then the morning after remorse, etc. TLDR, no matter the sport: Never underestimate the willingness of front offices flush with cash but short on options to spend it badly.

If you don't want to discuss the topic in a vacuum, then why did you edit out the team analysis of who may (or may not) sign him in the real world, as well as quotes from league execs, then start talking in sports generalities? Follow me?

What team is going to sign Howard to a max contract this summer, and why? What GM wants to get fired when Howard is annoying his teammates, sitting out back to backs like a *****, and whining to his coaches about touches while making $30mil in December of his 2nd season on a 4 year deal?

Maybe Michael Jordan will instruct Rich Cho to do it. Maybe.

[ssspence]

Lawson's contract is non guaranteed next year.

Right -- he waived his right to guaranteed 2016-17 in order to be traded, didn't he. Man, that was a bad move...

Still think the deal make sense for Houston, whether they include him or not. I find it very hard to believe they could do better than Thad Young in exchange for Howard.

Nets may wish to take a crack at rehabbing him (giving him the ball more than HOU can) for the ROY before choosing to keep him, or not, this summer. Hard to imagine Houston doing anything but letting him go.

Regardless, would Sean Marks really pull the trigger on a deal like this in his first day? Or would Prokhorov pull the trigger on it before he accepts (if he accepts)? Seems like a long shot.

Update -- If I'm Morey, I'm calling whoever is sitting in Billy King's old office right now.

http://www.netsdaily.com/2016/2/17/11036342/mikhail-prokhorov-says-nets-didnt-offer-sean-marks-gm-job

[Dino Pitino]

again, I can see some of these teams making him an offer, just not the max in years or $$. I just don't see a bull market for him.

It's not about a bull market for him. It's about a bear market for free agents in general. How much a GM would give Howard in a vacuum is meaningless. How much a GM declares he wants to give Howard months in advance is meaningless. When push comes to shove, and the top 5 or so free agents are snatched up, and there are all these middling teams with max cap room and nothing to spend it on and fanbases clamoring for a splash, Howard will suddenly look a lot better, and the GM who was rational months before will suddenly start talking himself into Howard, and there will be more than one such GM, and so a mini-bidding war will ensue, and Howard will get the max, and the "winning" franchise will almost insta-regret it. Like the desperate scene in a bar before last call when the least-mediocre chick starts looking like a model to dudes with beer goggles, and then the morning after remorse, etc. TLDR, no matter the sport: Never underestimate the willingness of front offices flush with cash but short on options to spend it badly.

If you don't want to discuss the topic in a vacuum, then why did you edit out the team analysis of who may (or may not) sign him in the real world, as well as quotes from league execs, then start talking in sports generalities? Follow me?

What team is going to sign Howard to a max contract this summer, and why? What GM wants to get fired when Howard is annoying his teammates, sitting out back to backs like a *****, and whining to his coaches about touches while making $30mil in December of his 2nd season on a 4 year deal?

Maybe Michael Jordan will instruct Rich Cho to do it. Maybe.

Not sure "no" next to a team counts as analysis. So, for example, why wouldn't Atlanta or Orlando or Milwaukee be susceptible to the pressure to spend the money on something big?

[Moranis]

again, I can see some of these teams making him an offer, just not the max in years or $$. I just don't see a bull market for him.

It's not about a bull market for him. It's about a bear market for free agents in general. How much a GM would give Howard in a vacuum is meaningless. How much a GM declares he wants to give Howard months in advance is meaningless. When push comes to shove, and the top 5 or so free agents are snatched up, and there are all these middling teams with max cap room and nothing to spend it on and fanbases clamoring for a splash, Howard will suddenly look a lot better, and the GM who was rational months before will suddenly start talking himself into Howard, and there will be more than one such GM, and so a mini-bidding war will ensue, and Howard will get the max, and the "winning" franchise will almost insta-regret it. Like the desperate scene in a bar before last call when the least-mediocre chick starts looking like a model to dudes with beer goggles, and then the morning after remorse, etc. TLDR, no matter the sport: Never underestimate the willingness of front offices flush with cash but short on options to spend it badly.

If you don't want to discuss the topic in a vacuum, then why did you edit out the team analysis of who may (or may not) sign him in the real world, as well as quotes from league execs, then start talking in sports generalities? Follow me?

What team is going to sign Howard to a max contract this summer, and why? What GM wants to get fired when Howard is annoying his teammates, sitting out back to backs like a *****, and whining to his coaches about touches while making $30mil in December of his 2nd season on a 4 year deal?

Maybe Michael Jordan will instruct Rich Cho to do it. Maybe.

Not sure "no" next to a team counts as analysis. So, for example, why wouldn't Atlanta or Orlando or Milwaukee be susceptible to the pressure to spend the money on something big?

especially Atlanta where he is from.

[rondohondo]

Ric Bucher: “The Houston Rockets are going to do everything in their power to move Dwight Howard before the [trade] deadline.”
– via NetsDaily

[LGC88]

Ric Bucher: “The Houston Rockets are going to do everything in their power to move Dwight Howard before the [trade] deadline.”
– via NetsDaily

And tomorrow at 2:55pm he will call Danny for a second rounder.

[MJohnnyboy]

Ric Bucher: “The Houston Rockets are going to do everything in their power to move Dwight Howard before the [trade] deadline.”
– via NetsDaily

I thought so. Rockets are now realizing they have no leverage in a Dwight Howard deal. I bet a billion TP's he gets traded before the deadline.

[Donoghus]

Certainly doesn't hurt the Celtics to lowball the heck out of HOU right now.

[hpantazo]

Ric Bucher: “The Houston Rockets are going to do everything in their power to move Dwight Howard before the [trade] deadline.”
– via NetsDaily

I thought so. Rockets are now realizing they have no leverage in a Dwight Howard deal. I bet a billion TP's he gets traded before the deadline.

David Lee and the Dallas 1st makes total sense right now.

[MJohnnyboy]

Ric Bucher: “The Houston Rockets are going to do everything in their power to move Dwight Howard before the [trade] deadline.”
– via NetsDaily

I thought so. Rockets are now realizing they have no leverage in a Dwight Howard deal. I bet a billion TP's he gets traded before the deadline.

David Lee and the Dallas 1st makes total sense right now.

Heck, his value is so low right now I think david lee and the Minnesota 1st gets it done. I don't think straight up Lee for Howard it works so they may have to include Sullinger.

[LGC88]

Ric Bucher: “The Houston Rockets are going to do everything in their power to move Dwight Howard before the [trade] deadline.”
– via NetsDaily

I thought so. Rockets are now realizing they have no leverage in a Dwight Howard deal. I bet a billion TP's he gets traded before the deadline.

David Lee and the Dallas 1st makes total sense right now.

Lee + 2nd sounds about right for a rental.
Lee + Bos 1st if you push me, only because I need to get rid of picks this year.