What pieces do the Celtics Really Need

[acieEarl]

After seeing Brook Lopez pretty much score at will on a single defender, I say our main concern would be big man in the middle. Cousins would be the perfect fit. Scores, rebounds, and can play defense when he's focused.

Simmons is going to be a stud in the NBA. If we can land say the 3rd pick with that Nets pick, I'd do whatever it takes to move up to the 1rst pick. Not sure it's possible but I'd give the house of picks up for that kid.

[CroCorvus]

I would be ecstatic if we could make something like this with this years our or Dallas pick going to Memphis.

http://espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=jp8kn6w

Why for Memphis:
the league is going in other direction of more athletic and faster play, and they are not going to win a championship with playing old style of bball with two bigs. This way they get younger, they get promising good shooter in Young, stretch four in Jonas and a good look at Sully till the end of the season. On top of that they get 1st round pick which should be around 20. They are getting rid of last year of Zach's contract (not that they need to bearing in mind next year's salary cup and all), but they are getting 3 young quality players who could mean something for prying Conley to sign when his contract is up in the summer.   

Why for Boston:
Maybe I'm slightly overpaying here because Z-Bo is 35, but he is what we need: a very good low post scorer, former all star and a leader. He had some rough times in the past but he is a veteran now so that should not be a risk. Bearing his style of play should age very well (which he's doing btw). I like Jonas, Sully and James but it should not be a problem for us because we have plenty of bigs and guards.

Starting lineup: Marcus, Bradley, Crowder, Randolph, Kelly O.
Off the bench: IT, RJ, Turner, Lee, Johnson + Zeller, Mickey and Rozier

Just say no to Z-Bo.  Marc Gasol on the other hand would be a good fit.  Can space the floor and an excellent defender, defensive rebounder and passer.

It's like you saying Durant, Lebron or Curry would be a great fit. Of course he would, but I'm talking about getting a very good and a serviceable player for acceptable price. That way we get better in short time, get Z-Bo on a two year friendly contract (9 mil per year)... If it does't work out you can trade him easily...

[Al91]

I'm my opinion they need an Ezeli-type player for the 5. With the direction the NBA is going in I'm not sure there's as much value in 5s, yet one of the league's most coveted (yet "going nowhere") players is Demarcus Cousins.

Idk, maybe it's the logjam but I'd really like to see Zeller starting again, and perhaps that alone would alleviate my idea of needing a legitimate 7'0 ft, wide-shouldered 5.

I'd also love a kid like Ingram out of Duke next year to play the 3 when the Celtics go small and move Crowder to the 4.

[Hemingway]

Going into this season, I was convinced that the Celtics biggest need was a small forward who could play defense and shoot -- something like Gordon Hayward or Jimmy Butler.  As others have suggested on this site, the recent play of Crowder has been really eye opening.  He can defend multiple positions, doesn't back down from the Lebron-type challenges, isn't afraid to take the big shot, and is really improving on offense.  His numbers this year (his 4th year) compare favorably to Butler's 3rd year:

Butler:  38 mins, 13.1 pts, 5 reb, 2.6 assists, 40% FG, 28% 3pt

Crowder:  32 mins, 13.9 pts, 5.3 reb, 1.8 assists, 45% FG, 35% 3 pt

Obviously Butler made a massive jump in his fourth year and it's unrealistic to expect Crowder to do the same.  Nevertheless, it is very easy to imagine Crowder being the 3 on a championship caliber team. The question then becomes:  where do the Celtics need upgrades?

Here's my analysis:

I think that Smart, Bradley and IT form a pretty good guard rotation.  Smart and Bradley are elite defenders and IT is an elite offensive player who seems to be improving significantly on defense (Defensive win share of 1.3 -- the highest in his career).

I like Crowder at the 3.

I think KO is an excellent sub off the bench -- someone who can add energy and an offensive spark.  I don't think it's likely he'll grow into a starter on a championship team.  (He's missing the swagger that Smart, Crowder, IT, and even Bradley have.)

What I think are missing are a shot blocker who can also stretch the floor (at least a bit) at the 5 and a star scorer at the 4 (or vice versa).  Then if we have someone at the 2/3 who can add offense off the bench, we've got a pretty good team.  An offensive sub is not hard to find (Hunter or Young could potentially fill this role).  A center who can block shots (or at least defend) and stretch the floor also isn't too difficult to get (if Mickey develops, he could be that guy).  So that leaves finding a star at the 4.  There is no way we are going to get someone who isn't a bit of gamble. 

I think our best bet, after Kevin Durant (which will never happen) is Carmelo Anthony. He is a truly gifted scorer.  He can shoot from anywhere on the court, can create his own shot as well as virtually anyone in the league (outside of Durant and Curry) and has to be focal point of the other team's defensive scheme. 

Adding him would give us a team that has two offensive stars, elite defense at the 1-3, and role players who can spread the floor and hit shots.  Although Carmelo's numbers are down from previous years (21.5 puts on 43% shooting as opposed to career averages of 25 pts/45%), he should do better in the Celtics system where defenses couldn't cheat as much.

I also think he's gettable.  Assuming he would waive his no-trade clause, I would trade all three first round picks next year, Sullinger, Lee and either Rozier or Young (Knicks choice).  I know people are extremely resistant to trading the Nets pick, but I disagree.  In the last 20 games of the season, teams are going to tank hard.  The Nets have no incentive to go that route.  Right now the Nets have 10 wins:  The 76ers have 4 and should be the worst team.  The Lakers (who lose their pick if it's not top 3) have 8 and should continue to stay really bad.  There are FOUR other teams that have 12 or fewer wins:  Phoenix (which is a mess), the Pelicans (another mess), Minnesota and Denver.  So, yes, we are taking a risk in trading away what could potentially be a number 1 pick.  But the odds are against us (even the worst team has only a 1 in 4 chance of winning it).  If the Nets end up being the 5 worst team, we would have an 8.8% chance of winning the lottery.

And even a #1 pick isn't any sort of guarantee.  Wiggins is a nice player and should be an all-star but he's going to take some time to get there and won't be the next LeBron that everyone said.  Anthony-Towns also looks good, but is going to take years to really figure it out and become an elite player.  Anthony Bennet was a bust.  The only true superstar taken #1 in the past 4 years has been Anthony Davis and look at how his team is doing.   

So are we giving up a lot?  Yes.  But we gave up a lot (or it seemed like a lot at the time) for Garnett.  Al Jefferson looked like a future elite player.  Gerald Green had a ton of promise.  Gomes also looked like a decent player.  And we gave up 2 number 1s.  Assuming the Nets pick is roughly equivalent to Jefferson back then (and I would argue that Jefferson was much more valuable), that means the Carmelo trade I suggested is roughly equivilant to the KG trade.

Jefferson = Nets Pick
Green + Gomes >= Sullinger
2 first round picks= Celtics other 2016 first round picks
Theo Ratfliff contract = David Lee's contract
Telfair = Rozier

Yes, KG is better than Carmelo, but the point is that, in retrospect, we gave up a bunch of promising guys/picks and got an established star.  It was a heist, even though at the time it seemed risky.

If we had the following rotation players, we could compete for a number 2 spot in the East:

Guards:  Smart, Bradley, IT
3:  Crowder, Turner
4:  Carmelo, KO
5.  Amir Johnson, Zeller

We still would have a ton of youth to be developed:  Young, Hunter, Mickey

And we would be well positioned to add one more piece in free agency that could get us over the top.

Sorry for the long post.  Now, everyone, tell me how I'm wrong.

I completely agree. We would still have a lot of picks and assets to trade and we'd still have max contract space to get another star. It's not like we are an aging team that trades away their picks ever year, we have tons on them and lots of recently drafter prospects. FAs would see a team like this as attractive to go to:

Amir
Melo
Crowder
AB
IT

bench: Smart, KO, Jerebko?, Hunter, Rozier, Young, Mickey
coach: Brad Stevens

We would have a great trade package in an expiring Amir and picks to get another star in one came available.


With the rising cap, we have the space to have 3 stars. we have deals one AB, Smart, IT and Crowder so we can spend to fill it out. half our picks players we don't want to keep and Lee(contract) for one star and the other half of the picks and Amir for another star. And we can sign one in the summer. So it's not so much about Melo. He can easily be in a big 3. And as the OP said, we can probably get him.

[ssspence]

An MVP caliber player -- like every other team in the NBA that doesn't have one. Without one, you're irrelevant. There's no banners for 2nd place in Boston.

[walker834]

An MVP caliber player -- like every other team in the NBA that doesn't have one. Without one, you're irrelevant. There's no banners for 2nd place in Boston.

I am all on the Simmons bandwagon. I think that's the guy we need  but I think we could win with a poorer version and a dave cowens type. It's really Bill Russell vs Cowens.  We wouldn' win 11 but a couple.  Amir is ok and in that mold himself but we need better than that.  I'm not sold on guys liek Cousins or Drummond or just saying we need a stud.  I think players like that could hurt more than help.  We need a certain kind of player.

We either need a guy like Simmons or someone who is more crafty down there and plays hard. High energy guys regardless.

Drummond is not crafty.  He is terrible at ft shooting and is a dunk machine that can be taken away if fouled or kept away from the basket. 

Cousins demands the ball too much. He'll get after it on the offensive end but he can get lazy defensively and his shot selection and decision making is not always best for the team. Cousins to me tries to play like Antoine Walker and expand his game and handle the ball on the break and shoot 3's when he is more a beast down low.  He's really the new age chamberlain if he played like it. He isn't that quick of foot to be out there handling the ball.

We have one star in Isaiah and our roleplayers pretty much shored up.   We have good physical quick guards who play tough and aggressive.  Same with Crowder and Amir and Mickey and good assortment of bigs in Sully and KO that give us some toughness and versatility.   Ainge keeps drafting these guys and adding them and we really just keep getting more athletic and versatile and in that mold. We really are at the point where we have more than enough of those guys.  We basically need 1 or 2 guys who are a cut above.

We get Skal L vs Simmons it basically is that.  Skal would be ok but he's not Simmons.