What pieces do the Celtics Really Need

[ChiCeltics]

Going into this season, I was convinced that the Celtics biggest need was a small forward who could play defense and shoot -- something like Gordon Hayward or Jimmy Butler.  As others have suggested on this site, the recent play of Crowder has been really eye opening.  He can defend multiple positions, doesn't back down from the Lebron-type challenges, isn't afraid to take the big shot, and is really improving on offense.  His numbers this year (his 4th year) compare favorably to Butler's 3rd year:

Butler:  38 mins, 13.1 pts, 5 reb, 2.6 assists, 40% FG, 28% 3pt

Crowder:  32 mins, 13.9 pts, 5.3 reb, 1.8 assists, 45% FG, 35% 3 pt

Obviously Butler made a massive jump in his fourth year and it's unrealistic to expect Crowder to do the same.  Nevertheless, it is very easy to imagine Crowder being the 3 on a championship caliber team. The question then becomes:  where do the Celtics need upgrades?

Here's my analysis:

I think that Smart, Bradley and IT form a pretty good guard rotation.  Smart and Bradley are elite defenders and IT is an elite offensive player who seems to be improving significantly on defense (Defensive win share of 1.3 -- the highest in his career).

I like Crowder at the 3.

I think KO is an excellent sub off the bench -- someone who can add energy and an offensive spark.  I don't think it's likely he'll grow into a starter on a championship team.  (He's missing the swagger that Smart, Crowder, IT, and even Bradley have.)

What I think are missing are a shot blocker who can also stretch the floor (at least a bit) at the 5 and a star scorer at the 4 (or vice versa).  Then if we have someone at the 2/3 who can add offense off the bench, we've got a pretty good team.  An offensive sub is not hard to find (Hunter or Young could potentially fill this role).  A center who can block shots (or at least defend) and stretch the floor also isn't too difficult to get (if Mickey develops, he could be that guy).  So that leaves finding a star at the 4.  There is no way we are going to get someone who isn't a bit of gamble. 

I think our best bet, after Kevin Durant (which will never happen) is Carmelo Anthony. He is a truly gifted scorer.  He can shoot from anywhere on the court, can create his own shot as well as virtually anyone in the league (outside of Durant and Curry) and has to be focal point of the other team's defensive scheme. 

Adding him would give us a team that has two offensive stars, elite defense at the 1-3, and role players who can spread the floor and hit shots.  Although Carmelo's numbers are down from previous years (21.5 puts on 43% shooting as opposed to career averages of 25 pts/45%), he should do better in the Celtics system where defenses couldn't cheat as much.

I also think he's gettable.  Assuming he would waive his no-trade clause, I would trade all three first round picks next year, Sullinger, Lee and either Rozier or Young (Knicks choice).  I know people are extremely resistant to trading the Nets pick, but I disagree.  In the last 20 games of the season, teams are going to tank hard.  The Nets have no incentive to go that route.  Right now the Nets have 10 wins:  The 76ers have 4 and should be the worst team.  The Lakers (who lose their pick if it's not top 3) have 8 and should continue to stay really bad.  There are FOUR other teams that have 12 or fewer wins:  Phoenix (which is a mess), the Pelicans (another mess), Minnesota and Denver.  So, yes, we are taking a risk in trading away what could potentially be a number 1 pick.  But the odds are against us (even the worst team has only a 1 in 4 chance of winning it).  If the Nets end up being the 5 worst team, we would have an 8.8% chance of winning the lottery.

And even a #1 pick isn't any sort of guarantee.  Wiggins is a nice player and should be an all-star but he's going to take some time to get there and won't be the next LeBron that everyone said.  Anthony-Towns also looks good, but is going to take years to really figure it out and become an elite player.  Anthony Bennet was a bust.  The only true superstar taken #1 in the past 4 years has been Anthony Davis and look at how his team is doing.   

So are we giving up a lot?  Yes.  But we gave up a lot (or it seemed like a lot at the time) for Garnett.  Al Jefferson looked like a future elite player.  Gerald Green had a ton of promise.  Gomes also looked like a decent player.  And we gave up 2 number 1s.  Assuming the Nets pick is roughly equivalent to Jefferson back then (and I would argue that Jefferson was much more valuable), that means the Carmelo trade I suggested is roughly equivilant to the KG trade.

Jefferson = Nets Pick
Green + Gomes >= Sullinger
2 first round picks= Celtics other 2016 first round picks
Theo Ratfliff contract = David Lee's contract
Telfair = Rozier

Yes, KG is better than Carmelo, but the point is that, in retrospect, we gave up a bunch of promising guys/picks and got an established star.  It was a heist, even though at the time it seemed risky.

If we had the following rotation players, we could compete for a number 2 spot in the East:

Guards:  Smart, Bradley, IT
3:  Crowder, Turner
4:  Carmelo, KO
5.  Amir Johnson, Zeller

We still would have a ton of youth to be developed:  Young, Hunter, Mickey

And we would be well positioned to add one more piece in free agency that could get us over the top.

Sorry for the long post.  Now, everyone, tell me how I'm wrong.

[pearljammer10]

It amazed me when I looked up Crowder and Butler's ages and found Butler is 26 and Crowder is 25.


I thought Crowder was at least 32.

[slamtheking]

too much to give up for Melo.  he's no spring chicken.

what we need:
1) a prime scorer that can get points down the stretch of games who's also not useless on D.
2) a starting-quality PG that can run an offense.  IT isn't it.  need someone who's a better ballhandler and passer who's also not useless on D.
3) a defensive-minded center that's also a good rebounder.  someone who doesn't have hands of stone and isn't useless on O.

We have a roster of bench players.  some games that's enough to win.  some games, not so much.  put 2 solid starting-quality players that address 2 of the 3 needs above and we're likely good enough to get to the ECF.  address that third need and we become a contender.

Melo addresses the need for a scorer but his D is lacking (and that's being kind).  Dwight would address the Center issue provided he shows up to compete instead of giving his current half-hearted effort.  As for the PG, there's a number of them out there that would be an overall upgrade over IT who would be a top backup in the league. 
I don't see any position on this roster and think that there's one we're all set at.  We can improve everywhere. 

[jambr380]

If we're being honest, all we really need is Demarcus Cousins and a little more time to develop our current players.

Smaller trades could be made and it's likely that Smart and the BKN pick would be needed in a trade for Cousins, but with the emergence of Crowder and with Avery / Bradley manning the backcourt with a do-it-all player like Turner off the bench, we really just need more 'dominance' up front.

[obnoxiousmime]

We're a "dominant SG" away from being a contender.

[SHAQATTACK]

Young Paul Pierce

But


Paul George would be fantastic

[i believe in brad]

I've been a fan of this idea for most of this season.  I completely agree with everything you say except I don't see any way the Knicks trade Carmelo during this season which is a bummer.  This trade would make them significantly worse in short term but they wouldn't reap the benefits of plummeting in the standings because they don't own their 2016 1st rounder.  Even if it's in the Knick's best interest to make a move like this, they'd be too afraid to look stupid giving away their own top pick (see Brooklyn).  If they want to do something like this it's way more likely they do it after this season in my opinion. 

But then again selling off a talent mid-season should logically bring back more assets so maybe I'm wrong and they would bite the bullet and move him.

[Yenohb]

Here's what I think we need:

1.) A Swing SF\PF who can defend the likes of Lebron, Draymond, Kawhi, Paul Millsap etc. which means he needs to be quick (can defend perimeter players) and strong(can defend post players) at the same time.

Ex. Terrence Jones

2.) Low post defender\shot blocker who is not a liability on offense.

Ex. Joakim Noah, Al Horford.

3.) A go-to-scorer.

Ex. Danilo Gallinari

[CelticsFanFromNYC]

Here's what I think we need:

1.) A Swing SF\PF who can defend the likes of Lebron, Draymond, Kawhi, Paul Millsap etc. which means he needs to be quick (can defend perimeter players) and strong(can defend post players) at the same time.

Ex. Terrence Jones

2.) Low post defender\shot blocker who is not a liability on offense.

Ex. Joakim Noah, Al Horford.

3.) A go-to-scorer.

Ex. Danilo Gallinari

I think Crowder got ya first request down packed if thats all your looking for in ya SF.

[CelticsFanFromNYC]

I don think any SF in the league can guard all those guys ****oo. ONLY RAJA BELL COULD!!

[PhoSita]

What do the Celts need? 

First you have to answer what the Celts have.


Right now, the way I see it is that the Celts have an above average starting point guard in Isaiah Thomas.  They've got a solid starting wing in Jae Crowder.  They've got a decent but replaceable starting shooting guard in Avery Bradley.

Aside from that, they've got a handful of decent bench players. 

Smart and Turner are capable backup ball-handler options; one is more defense-focused and the other is more of a shot creator.

Kelly Olynyk, Jared Sullinger, Tyler Zeller, Amir Johnson, and David Lee are all productive backup-caliber big men that each has significant strengths and significant flaws.


Conclusion:

- The Celts are pretty well off at point guard and wing.
- An upgrade at shooting guard wouldn't hurt but isn't a major need
- The team really needs a couple of no-doubt starting caliber big men

So I think if you added a forward like, say, Danilo Gallinari, and a big man like, say, Derrick Favors, and those two became the starting frontcourt, that would fill the biggest needs the team has.


All of the above is approaching the "What do the Celtics Need?" problem on a positional basis.


The other way you could look at this is by asking what the Celts are good at and what they are not good at.


Good:

- 12th in Offensive Rebound Rate
- 8th in Assist Ratio
- 2nd in Steals
- 1st (tied) in Opponent Turnovers
- 3rd in Opponent 3P%
- 7th in 3PA

Bad:

- 25th in 3P%
- 23rd in FTA
- 24th in Defensive Rebound Rate
- 18th in Blocks
- 23rd in Points Per Shot


The answer based on those rankings appears to be that the Celts really need to add players that can control the boards on defense, block shots, get to the free throw line, hit a high percentage of shots from outside, and generally score with efficiency.

All of that is consistent with the above -- adding big men who can rebound, protect the rim, get to the line, score with efficiency, and ideally also help space the floor would go a long way toward shoring up the team's weaknesses.

That description basically limits the selection to All-Star caliber big men, however, possibly the hardest type of player to acquire.  It definitely helps you understand why Ainge was so keen on acquiring Kevin Love, though.  He would have checked off a lot of boxes.

Upgrading the shooting guard spot with a player who can provide similar scoring and shooting as Avery Bradley while also attacking the rim and getting to the line more frequently would also help. 

But again, that's probably an All-Star caliber player, and shooting guard is probably the shallowest position in the league talent-wise.

[CFAN38]

My breakdown of the team is similar to the OP.

I think the biggest need in a clear upgrade at the 4/5. The Cs currently have 5 guys at the 4/5 spots who are NBA rotational players this is not including Jerebko or Mickey. If the Cs can find a way to obtain 1 clear upgrade even if not a star like Cousins but maybe someone on the level of Horford or Favors it would greatly help this team. This is fare from an easy task. The Cs current bigs are versatile and should be able to fit with almost any addition.

My secondary need would be a scoring wing. This player doesn't necessarily have to start over Crowder. What I see as an ideal is a player who takes Turners current minutes as well as some of the minutes at PF and provides this team solid 3/2 defense and court spacing. Adding a scoring (shooting wing) and consolidating the big man rotation BS would be free to play more small ball with Crowder at the PF. A player like Danny Green or Evan Fouriner would be a nice fit.

New rotation

PG Smart
SG AB
SF Crowder
PF Amir
C  New Big Man

6th IT
7th Wing player
8th KO

[Ed Hollison]

too much to give up for Melo.  he's no spring chicken.

Agree. Melo is just too old. That would be way too much to give up for a player his age who's showing slippage in his game and who has been less-than-average on defense for most of his career.

[pearljammer10]

We need a premier, go to scorer that we can rely on to close games and give us clutch hoops and we need a defensive oriented big man that can run the floor and play defense.

I'd be on board with Melo but the Nets pick would be off the table for me.

Sully, Lee, Rozier 2 firsts (non Nets pick).


Obviously Cousins is my pipe dream center which I would trade the Nets pick for but I don't think he is leaving Sac anytime soon. I would shoot for Noah since he might be a buy-low center right now. Jerebko, Turner, Zeller and a future first (or Amir and a future first and future second for Noah). Bulls gets a pick, rotation players to add depth for a playoff push and expirings for next year.

IT (32)/Smart (16)
Bradley (28 )/Smart(14) /RJ (6)
Crowder (30)/Melo (18 )/Young
Melo (16)/KO (24)/Mickey (8 )
Noah (28 )/Amir (20)

[td450]

I'll state the obvious: Ben Simmons

If we get a bit lucky and get him, I see us challenging for titles out as far as the eye can see. With Jarrett Jack out, it looks like Brooklyn will end up with the 2nd or 3rd worst record. We will have a legit shot at this.

Simmons will not be the go to scorer that we need for about 4 years. But he will be an elite defender and rebounder and the best passer on the team on his first day. He will break down defenses and get easy shots for others immediately. We will be the quickest team in the league.

Because he is drafted, Ainge will still have the financial and trade chip resources necessary to go after two or more other complimentary players.

There are obviously many paths to contention. But that one is the easiest and would have the longest impact.