2016 draft pick tracker

[mef730]

Hoping for some good juju.

We deserve some after our #2 became #5 in '07. Let's see the #4 become #1 this time to even it out! 

I also am hopeful that the Dallas pick can be packaged with the Celts pick and early second rounders for some extra ping pong balls. 

I think a lot of people would argue that we got our good juju with the eventual results of that draft.

Mike

[slamtheking]

link to last year's draft pick tracker
http://forums.celticsblog.com/index.php?topic=75437.0

Standings as of 3/1/16 -- will try to update weekly

Nets pick -- unprotected  -- #4 currently
              Games Behind    Current Wins     Games Left    Last 10
Minnesota         +2                      19                    22                 5-5   
Brooklyn           --                        17                22                 5-5
Phoenix             -1.5                     15                    23                 1-9

--> PHX falling behind a bit more.  I think that ship has sailed.  Can't believe I would ever post that Brooklyn went 5-5 in the past 10 games. 



Boston Pick #23  (percentage points worse than Memphis)

            Games Behind    Current Wins     Games Left    Last 10
Memphis         even                    35                     23                 6-4
Boston          ---                          36                  21                  7-3
Miami                -2                        33                    23                 6-4
Atlanta              -2.5                      33                    22                 5-5

--> C's still pretty solidly in this pocket of teams. Getting to the point where a drop to even #20 would be a surprise right now even though the East is pretty packed and a C's cold streak could drop them in the standings quickly.

Dallas Pick #19 -- (tied with Portland) protected if in top 7
                Games Behind    Current Wins   Games Left   Last 10
Miami                +1.5                     33                    23                 6-4
Atlanta               +1                        33                    22                 5-5
Dallas               ----                     32                    22                 4-6
Portland             even                    32                    22                 8-2
Charlotte            -1                         30                    24                 7-3
Chicago             -1                         30                    24                 3-7
Indiana               -1                        31                    22                 5-5
===========Eastern Conference Playoff cutoff==============
Detroit                -1                         31                    22                 5-5
Washington        -2.5                      29                    23                 7-3
Houston             -3                         29                    22                 4-6   
===========Western Conference Playoff cutoff==============
Utah                   -3.5                       28                   23                  4-6

-->Dallas climbed a bit because the teams right around them in the standings can't get it together recently.  still would take just a small Dallas cold streak to set them back a bit in the standings very quickly.  Hoping those in the chase for the playoffs get their collective heads out of their butts and start winning.

Second Rounders:
Philly - #31
Minnesota (if 1st isn't conveyed) - #35
Dallas (better of Dallas or Memphis) - #49
Miami - #52
Cleveland - #58


2016
first rounders
Boston
Brooklyn
Dallas (protected 1-7)
Minnesota (protected 1-12)

Second rounders
Cleveland
Philly
Miami
Best of Dallas/Memphis
Minnesota (if 1st not conveyed)

[slamtheking]

link to last year's draft pick tracker
http://forums.celticsblog.com/index.php?topic=75437.0

Standings as of 3/7/16 -- will try to update weekly

Nets pick -- unprotected  -- #4 currently
              Games Behind    Current Wins     Games Left    Last 10
Minnesota         +1.5                    20                    18                 3-7   
Brooklyn           --                        18                19                 4-6
Phoenix             -1                        17                    19                 3-7

--> PHX just a game behind now.  hoping that playing in a weaker conference will be enough to push them ahead of the Nets as well as keep Minny in front of them as well.

Boston Pick #23 

            Games Behind    Current Wins     Games Left    Last 10
Memphis           +.5                      38                     19                 7-3
Boston          ---                          38                  18                  7-3
Miami                -.5                        37                     19                 8-2
Atlanta              -2.5                      35                     19                 5-5

--> C's still pretty solidly in this pocket of teams.   Looking like it's down to jockeying with Memphis and Miami down the stretch

Dallas Pick #16-- (tied with Portland for record and with Chicago in terms of %) protected if in top 7
                Games Behind    Current Wins   Games Left   Last 10
Atlanta              +2.5                     35                    19                 5-5
Charlotte           +2                        34                    18                 8-2
Indiana              +1                        34                    18                 5-5
Chicago             even                    32                    20                 5-5
===========Eastern Conference Playoff cutoff==============
Dallas               ----                     33                    18                 4-6
Portland             even                    33                     18                 6-4
Detroit                -.5                        32                     19                 5-5
Houston             -1.5                      31                     19                 4-6
===========Western Conference Playoff cutoff==============
Washington        -2                        30                      20                 6-4

-->Dallas is up and down right now.  starting to lose hope they drop out of the playoffs -- Utah, Houston and Portland all need to get hot while Dallas cools off.  been a tough stretch for those 3 teams to gain ground.

Second Rounders:
Philly - #31
Minnesota (if 1st isn't conveyed) - #35
Dallas (better of Dallas or Memphis) - #46
Miami - #52
Cleveland - #58


2016
first rounders
Boston
Brooklyn
Dallas (protected 1-7)
Minnesota (protected 1-12)

Second rounders
Cleveland
Philly
Miami
Best of Dallas/Memphis
Minnesota (if 1st not conveyed)

[mef730]

As always, TP for the hard work.

We have only another week or so of Nets games that they should win. After Toronto tonight, they will be playing PHL/MIL/PHL. Ouch. Look for 2-2 over the next four games, including tonight. If they're still only a game or so ahead of Phoenix and Phoenix can keep playing the way they have (I think the former is more likely than the latter.). Brandon Knight is practicing tonight and could play as early as tomorrow night, although they have absolutely no reason to bring him back sooner rather than later.

Fun fact for the day: TWolves play Phoenix twice between now and the end of the season. Who do I root for? I guess I'll know the morning of the game. Since I don't think Phoenix makes it, I'll probably root for the TWolves and the security of that fourth slot.

Dallas has a tough remainder of March, although April softens up a bit. But with only 18 games remaining and a 3 game lead over 9th place Utah, it's going to be tough for them to fall into the lottery. As of now, Utah has the 12th pick.

Mike

[slamtheking]

As always, TP for the hard work.

We have only another week or so of Nets games that they should win. After Toronto tonight, they will be playing PHL/MIL/PHL. Ouch. Look for 2-2 over the next four games, including tonight. If they're still only a game or so ahead of Phoenix and Phoenix can keep playing the way they have (I think the former is more likely than the latter.). Brandon Knight is practicing tonight and could play as early as tomorrow night, although they have absolutely no reason to bring him back sooner rather than later.

Fun fact for the day: TWolves play Phoenix twice between now and the end of the season. Who do I root for? I guess I'll know the morning of the game. Since I don't think Phoenix makes it, I'll probably root for the TWolves and the security of that fourth slot.

Dallas has a tough remainder of March, although April softens up a bit. But with only 18 games remaining and a 3 game lead over 9th place Utah, it's going to be tough for them to fall into the lottery. As of now, Utah has the 12th pick.

Mike

thanks for the input Mef -- an appreciative TP back at ya

[chilidawg]

Today's 538 projections put Dallas at 40-42, unfortunately a game ahead of Utah for the last playoff spot.  That would net the 15th pick.  One advantage of Dallas making the playoffs is it eliminates the slim chance that they move up in the lottery to the top 3 and cost us the pick this year entirely.  Or maybe in the long run that's a good thing, next years draft perhaps being better.

538 projects the Suns to finish a game ahead of Brooklyn, one back of Minnesota.  Let's hope that pans out.

[LarBrd33]

Man that Dallas pick could still end up being pretty special.

This season is a dream. 

[jambr380]

Man that Dallas pick could still end up being pretty special.

This season is a dream.

You sure have turned over a new leaf lately. I have always enjoyed your posts and the thought that goes behind them (more of a slightly half-glass empty realist than a pure pessimist). Glad to see you see a positive end in sight for this season, anyway.

Also, a very big TP to Slam for an incredibly informative thread. A lot of people around here are stats geeks and it's quite nice to be able to come here for all of our draft position needs!

[slamtheking]

Man that Dallas pick could still end up being pretty special.

This season is a dream.

You sure have turned over a new leaf lately. I have always enjoyed your posts and the thought that goes behind them (more of a slightly half-glass empty realist than a pure pessimist). Glad to see you see a positive end in sight for this season, anyway.

Also, a very big TP to Slam for an incredibly informative thread. A lot of people around here are stats geeks and it's quite nice to be able to come here for all of our draft position needs!

glad to know this is helpful to people (which was what I was hoping for) -- TP back at ya

[slamtheking]

Today's 538 projections put Dallas at 40-42, unfortunately a game ahead of Utah for the last playoff spot.  That would net the 15th pick.  One advantage of Dallas making the playoffs is it eliminates the slim chance that they move up in the lottery to the top 3 and cost us the pick this year entirely.  Or maybe in the long run that's a good thing, next years draft perhaps being better.

538 projects the Suns to finish a game ahead of Brooklyn, one back of Minnesota.  Let's hope that pans out.

in the remote chance that Dallas ends up in the lottery AND moves into the top 3, I don't think it would necessarily be a bad thing. 
-we already have 7 other picks this year in a 'down' draft.
-next year's protections don't get any stronger and that draft may indeed be better to the point we'd want another first rounder that year.

[slamtheking]

not to jinx things but Dallas now down to 7th in the west and only a half game up on Houston

[mef730]

not to jinx things but Dallas now down to 7th in the west and only a half game up on Houston

I'll step in and fulfill my role as Debbie Downer. 18 games left, 3.5 game Dallas lead. Statistically, that's a very tough nut to crack.

Utah will play GS, CLE, OKC and SA between now and the end of the year, but every other game for them is winnable. No, I'm not predicting that they go 14-4 (although that would be sweet), but they do have an okay schedule.

Houston's schedule looks even better, with 2XOKC and one against CLE and Toronto each.

17 games left for Dallas, including 2XGS, CLE and SA. 10/17 on the road.

In other words, there's hope, but I do see that pick coming in at 15. Too bad, since Utah, in the 9th seed, picks 12th, given the strength of the east.

Mike

[Quetzalcoatl]

not to jinx things but Dallas now down to 7th in the west and only a half game up on Houston

I'll step in and fulfill my role as Debbie Downer. 18 games left, 3.5 game Dallas lead. Statistically, that's a very tough nut to crack.

Utah will play GS, CLE, OKC and SA between now and the end of the year, but every other game for them is winnable. No, I'm not predicting that they go 14-4 (although that would be sweet), but they do have an okay schedule.

Houston's schedule looks even better, with 2XOKC and one against CLE and Toronto each.

17 games left for Dallas, including 2XGS, CLE and SA. 10/17 on the road.

In other words, there's hope, but I do see that pick coming in at 15. Too bad, since Utah, in the 9th seed, picks 12th, given the strength of the east.

Mike

Their L10 has been 4-6 for about a month now.  It's not crazy to think that they finish 6-12. 

[saltlover]

not to jinx things but Dallas now down to 7th in the west and only a half game up on Houston

I'll step in and fulfill my role as Debbie Downer. 18 games left, 3.5 game Dallas lead. Statistically, that's a very tough nut to crack.

Utah will play GS, CLE, OKC and SA between now and the end of the year, but every other game for them is winnable. No, I'm not predicting that they go 14-4 (although that would be sweet), but they do have an okay schedule.

Houston's schedule looks even better, with 2XOKC and one against CLE and Toronto each.

17 games left for Dallas, including 2XGS, CLE and SA. 10/17 on the road.

In other words, there's hope, but I do see that pick coming in at 15. Too bad, since Utah, in the 9th seed, picks 12th, given the strength of the east.

Mike

Their L10 has been 4-6 for about a month now.  It's not crazy to think that they finish 6-12.

No, it's not crazy to think they finish 6-11 (they have 17 games left).  But even doing so, the Jazz would need to finish 10-8 and win the head-to-head matchup vs. Dallas in April to pass them.  With games against the Warriors, Spurs, Clippers, Thunder, and Cavs in those final 18 games, it's tough to see the Jazz, who have won only 45% of their games this season, finishing at that clip.

To miss the playoffs, I think the bottom would need to completely fall out of the Mavs, such that they win no more than 4 games over the final stretch.  I don't think it's impossible, but it's not likely.  It's also not likely the Jazz can catch them otherwise.  There's just too much distance and too little time, given the Jazz recent play and remaining schedule.

[nickagneta]

Really not concerned whether Dallas finishes anywhere between 12-16. This draft is weak and the chances of landing anything great in that area is going to be very slim. Besides, the Celtics have picks to burn. If Dallas' pick turns out to be 16th and the Celtics want someone at 12, they have the draft picks to make a swap. I still don't see Boston using any first rounder but the Brooklyn pick and even that I am doubtful of if the pick isn't top 2.