2016 draft pick tracker

[TheSundanceKid]

This run in is going to be so exciting! I feel confident of getting the #3 seed, the Atlanta game is the crucial one.

Watching Dallas is going to be fun as well. Houston have the easiest run in but Utah have it pretty tough. There will probably only be a game in it at the end, maybe even on a tiebreaker!

[mef730]

I'd be okay with 4, 15 and 22.

Phoenix remaining games: @ATL, @HOU, @NO, SAC, LAC

BKN: @Washington, @Charlotte, @Indiana, Washington, Toronto

Even if we work under the assumption that BKN loses everything between now and the end of the season, I still need PHX to win two. It's doable. They'll lose the first two, but New Orleans is a mess, SAC won't be playing Cousins and LAC will hopefully be resting players.

Now, will BKN actually lose all five? They should lose at both Charlotte and Indiana, both of whom will be fighting for playoff positioning. But then we have issues. They play Washington twice. Washington isn't terrible, but they're effectively out of the playoff picture (four games behind, five to play). The second game against BKN is in BKN, on the second night of a BTB. We already know that the Nets won't be playing anybody good. The question is who Washington is playing at that point. True, you don't need to rest anybody for the playoffs, but are you shutting people down by now?

My big fear is Toronto. Last game for BKN, at home, they'll want to at least make a good showing. Meanwhile, absent a major CLE meltdown, Toronto has already locked in the two-spot. If I'm them, my starting five on the last day of the season is the ball boy, Tim Horton, Dick Vitale, Patches O'Houlihan and the "Charlie bit my finger!" kid. No way to know which one that one goes.

But if we do end up tied with PHX and there's a coin flip, I vote we send Belichick to represent us.

Mike

[slamtheking]

I'd be okay with 4, 15 and 22.

Phoenix remaining games: @ATL, @HOU, @NO, SAC, LAC

BKN: @Washington, @Charlotte, @Indiana, Washington, Toronto

Even if we work under the assumption that BKN loses everything between now and the end of the season, I still need PHX to win two. It's doable. They'll lose the first two, but New Orleans is a mess, SAC won't be playing Cousins and LAC will hopefully be resting players.

Now, will BKN actually lose all five? They should lose at both Charlotte and Indiana, both of whom will be fighting for playoff positioning. But then we have issues. They play Washington twice. Washington isn't terrible, but they're effectively out of the playoff picture (four games behind, five to play). The second game against BKN is in BKN, on the second night of a BTB. We already know that the Nets won't be playing anybody good. The question is who Washington is playing at that point. True, you don't need to rest anybody for the playoffs, but are you shutting people down by now?

My big fear is Toronto. Last game for BKN, at home, they'll want to at least make a good showing. Meanwhile, absent a major CLE meltdown, Toronto has already locked in the two-spot. If I'm them, my starting five on the last day of the season is the ball boy, Tim Horton, Dick Vitale, Patches O'Houlihan and the "Charlie bit my finger!" kid. No way to know which one that one goes.

But if we do end up tied with PHX and there's a coin flip, I vote we send Belichick to represent us.

Mike

I'm feeling the draft karma this year such that no matter where Brooklyn ends up pre-lottery (3 or 4) they'll come out of it with a top 3 pick (top 2 actually).  I'm completely confident that our absolute worst case would be #5 post-lottery and that's if we end up as #4 pre-lottery. 

Pegged Brooklyn as giving us a top 5 pick this draft and feeling pretty smug for that prediction (shame on me but not really    )

[slamtheking]

just some quick observations heading into the final week of games

Brooklyn:
Fighting with Phx for #3.  Up 1 game in the standings in 4th over PHX.

Phx has to play  @Rockets, @ NO, Kings, Clips --> could lose all 4 but I there's a glimpse of hope they could go anwhere from 3-1 to 1-3  --> Loss to Clips and maybe losing to Houston and/or maybe losing to the Kings.

Brooklyn has to play @ Charlotte, @ Indiana, Wash, Tor --> with Thad and Lopez sitting, should lose all 4 but could be Wash who may have thrown in the towel by then. 

I'm anticipating a tie for 3rd worst in the end.


Dallas:
Fighting with Utah and Houston to stay in the playoffs.

Dallas has to play Memphis, @ Clips, @ Jazz, Spurs --> could lose all 4.  could also win all 4 if Clips and Spurs rest their best players.  A chance to put Utah behind them for good if they win that on the road.  Could end up with a win-loss anywhere between 4-0 and 0-4.

Jazz has to play Clips, @Denver, Dallas, @Lakers --> should go 3-1.  expect to lose to Clips but they
have Dallas at home in a must win game.  need to pull that out.

Houston has to play Phx, Lakers, @Minny, Kings --> should win out 4-0.  blew the game against Dallas that would have tied them in the standings. 

Really, really hoping Jazz and Houston get their expected/needed wins while Dallas limps to the finish with a 1-3 or 0-4 finish.  Expecting Houston to be the odd man out at the end though -- no faith in Houston to play as well as they should against inferior teams.

The Houston/Suns game tonight is a real pick-your-poison night.  one of them will get the win but the other team losing hurts the pick standings.  If the difference is getting the 3rd pick instead of the fourth or getting the 12th pick instead of the 15th I'd  go for the 3rd pick.  (but then if the fourth slot wins the lottery I'll throw something through my TV)

[Tr1boy]

Mavs pick looking bad to worst

[Vermont Green]

The Dallas win over Houston definitely hurt our chances of Dallas missing the playoffs but this is not over yet.  Houston has 4 really easy games (PHX, LAL, MIN, SAC) and could win them all even if they aren't trying.  I am not sure Houston wants to make the playoffs though and none of the other teams will really be busting it to win either.

Dallas has 4 pretty tough games (MEM, LAC, UTA, SAN).

Quite a bit has to go right for Dallas to fall out but it is still in play (barely).

[slamtheking]

The Dallas win over Houston definitely hurt our chances of Dallas missing the playoffs but this is not over yet.  Houston has 4 really easy games (PHX, LAL, MIN, SAC) and could win them all even if they aren't trying.  I am not sure Houston wants to make the playoffs though and none of the other teams will really be busting it to win either.

Dallas has 4 pretty tough games (MEM, LAC, UTA, SAN).

Quite a bit has to go right for Dallas to fall out but it is still in play (barely).

I don't really see why Houston wouldn't want to make the playoffs.  more money for the players and franchise.  if they miss the playoffs the pick only becomes a few slots better --> #12 is not all that much better than #15 in this draft.  Can't see the upside for them not to try to get into the playoffs.

[mef730]

The Houston/Suns game tonight is a real pick-your-poison night.  one of them will get the win but the other team losing hurts the pick standings.  If the difference is getting the 3rd pick instead of the fourth or getting the 12th pick instead of the 15th I'd  go for the 3rd pick.  (but then if the fourth slot wins the lottery I'll throw something through my TV)

Tell ya what: We'll have a lottery party at a bar for the people in this thread so you can break somebody else's TV.

I'm putting Dallas at 15. I think the Jazz pass them, but Pop will sit everyone on the last game and Dallas should beat Memphis. 2-2 for them. But this could get fun: Houston goes 4-0 and Dallas wins against Memphis and SAN but loses to the other two, they end up with a tied record. Then we go HTH: Both are 2-2. Then we go to Division for the tie-breaker. Both are 8-8. Then we go to Conference. Finally! Houston pulls ahead. Still, there's too much that needs to go right for this scenario to pass.

Brooklyn: The last two games worry me. Washington is essentially eliminated from the playoffs and that game against BKN is the second day of a BTB. I'm sitting starters, if I'm them. Why risk injury to guys who have proven fragile for a meaningless game? Same thing with Toronto. They're pretty much locked in as a two seed. They could rest all of their starters for the next four games and still be secure as a two.

Let's see, who's left? Oh, Phoenix. Should lose to Houston. Should win the next three, assuming that the Clippers, locked in as a 4-seed, rest players on the last day (in Phoenix). It is, of course, zero-incentive Phoenix that we are talking about, so let's not take anything for granted.

Most likely scenario? Coin flip for 3rd pick. Somebody call Belichick.

Mike

[86MaxwellSmart]

If Brooklyn and Phoenix are tied---do they Actually Flip a freaking Coin--?

This is too important for that---they need to just Split up the assigned numbers as even as possible.

[nickagneta]

If Brooklyn and Phoenix are tied---do they Actually Flip a freaking Coin--?

This is too important for that---they need to just Split up the assigned numbers as even as possible.

Tiebreaker is they evenly split allotted ping pong balls for those two positions(3 and 4). The teams also flip a coin and the winner of the coin flip picks before the loser of the coin flip if neither team makes it into the top 3. I also think that the coin flip adds a ping long ball to the team that wins the coin flip if there is a left over ping pong ball after splitting the ping long balls evenly.

[loco_91]

Huge road win for PHX over the Rockets. While it does mean that the Mavs pick is unlikely to be in the lotto, it's still awesome. Most likely outcome now is that Pheonix and Brooklyn tie, but if anything the Suns have an easier schedule coming up especially considering that the Nets are resting Thad and Lopez. Phoenix has an away game vs the injury-battered Pelicans, a home game vs Sacramento, and a home game on the last game of the regular season vs LAC, where Doc may elect to rest his starters.

[RockinRyA]

Huge win for PHX over the Rockets. While it does mean that the Mavs pick is unlikely to be in the lotto, it's still awesome. Most likely outcome now is that Pheonix and Brooklyn tie, but if anything the Suns have an easier schedule coming up especially considering that the Nets are resting Thad and Lopez. Phoenix has an away game vs the injury-battered Pelicans, a home game vs Sacramento, and a home game on the last game of the regular season vs LAC, where Doc may elect to rest his starters.

That's why I kinda wanted Houston to win, since PHO has opportunity to win in other games, esp the NOP game and the Nets may not win anymore. Houston meanwhile needs all the wins they can get.

[loco_91]

Huge win for PHX over the Rockets. While it does mean that the Mavs pick is unlikely to be in the lotto, it's still awesome. Most likely outcome now is that Pheonix and Brooklyn tie, but if anything the Suns have an easier schedule coming up especially considering that the Nets are resting Thad and Lopez. Phoenix has an away game vs the injury-battered Pelicans, a home game vs Sacramento, and a home game on the last game of the regular season vs LAC, where Doc may elect to rest his starters.

That's why I kinda wanted Houston to win, since PHO has opportunity to win in other games, esp the NOP game and the Nets may not win anymore. Houston meanwhile needs all the wins they can get.

I just think that ping-pong balls are way more valuable than a few draft slots in the teens. It's not likely that Pheonix will end up 2 games behind (better than) the Nets, so it's really likely that this win will end up making a difference at the end of the season. Meanwhile, it's likely that it wouldn't have made a difference for the Rockets to win this game, especially since they lose a tiebreaker with the Mavs.

[libermaniac]

Huge win for PHX over the Rockets. While it does mean that the Mavs pick is unlikely to be in the lotto, it's still awesome. Most likely outcome now is that Pheonix and Brooklyn tie, but if anything the Suns have an easier schedule coming up especially considering that the Nets are resting Thad and Lopez. Phoenix has an away game vs the injury-battered Pelicans, a home game vs Sacramento, and a home game on the last game of the regular season vs LAC, where Doc may elect to rest his starters.

That's why I kinda wanted Houston to win, since PHO has opportunity to win in other games, esp the NOP game and the Nets may not win anymore. Houston meanwhile needs all the wins they can get.

Now, that's just getting greedy.    You are trying to "thread the needle" of tank perfection.  I wouldn't count the Nets completely out of their last 2 games - where teams might be resting for the playoffs. So, we need every Suns win we can get.   The difference between 13 and 15 is not worth any chance at messing up the chance to get the 3rd best lotto slot outright.

[TheSundanceKid]

Huge win for PHX over the Rockets. While it does mean that the Mavs pick is unlikely to be in the lotto, it's still awesome. Most likely outcome now is that Pheonix and Brooklyn tie, but if anything the Suns have an easier schedule coming up especially considering that the Nets are resting Thad and Lopez. Phoenix has an away game vs the injury-battered Pelicans, a home game vs Sacramento, and a home game on the last game of the regular season vs LAC, where Doc may elect to rest his starters.

That's why I kinda wanted Houston to win, since PHO has opportunity to win in other games, esp the NOP game and the Nets may not win anymore. Houston meanwhile needs all the wins they can get.

I just think that ping-pong balls are way more valuable than a few draft slots in the teens. It's not likely that Pheonix will end up 2 games behind (better than) the Nets, so it's really likely that this win will end up making a difference at the end of the season. Meanwhile, it's likely that it wouldn't have made a difference for the Rockets to win this game, especially since they lose a tiebreaker with the Mavs.

Agreed. The extra 3.7% at the number 1 pick isn't much, but the extra 21.8% chance at a top 4 pick is definitely worth it!