Author Topic: Trade Idea: Sully for Nerlens Noel  (Read 3824 times)

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Trade Idea: Sully for Nerlens Noel
« on: December 12, 2015, 05:55:52 PM »

Offline LarBrd33

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I've been a fan of Nerlens since before he was drafted.  If this idea was proposed a couple months ago, nobody on this forum would say "no"... and I'd probably laugh off the idea as absurd.   But things change.

Philly has attempted to play Nerlens out of position at PF and it's a disaster.  He excels at protecting the rim.  They have him running around the perimeter.  I had Nerlens as the runner-up to Wiggins in Rookie of the Year last year.  He came back from his injury and just got better as the season progressed.  Over the second half he put up 13.1 points, 10 rebounds, 1.9 assists, 2.3 blocks, 2.1 steals with 49% shooting and 66% from the line.   Additionally, Philly had a top 12 defense thanks to him and the top defense in the league in minutes he was on the court.  He put up historic defensive numbers for a 20 year old rookie.   Flash forward to this season, he's struggled with injuries and seems completely inable to co-exist with Okafor.  His numbers have taken a nose-dive to 10.3 points, 8 rebounds, 1.2 assists, 1 block and 1.5 steals with 43% shooting and 58% from the line.    He's still only 21 years old.  Philly needs to shake it up at some point.   His stock isn't getting any lower than it is right now.

On the flip side, if you believe Bill Simmons, Boston was ready to cut Sully this Summer had he not gotten into shape. 



I actually wasn't as down on Sully as everyone else.  He's always been able to contribute with minutes.  And he doesn't turn 24 years old for a few months.  He's had probably his best season to date... putting up averages of 10.2 points, 9.9 rebounds, 2.5 assists, 1 block and 1 steal with 43% shooting and 64% from the line in just 26 minutes.   His per-36 numbers are pretty impressive:  14.2 points, 13.8 rebounds, 3.5 assists, 1.3 blocks, 1.3 steals  ... Still, I have plenty of concerns about him.  I feel he has a limited ceiling and questionable attitude. 

Why for Boston:  Many reasons.  For one, Sully is a restricted free agent this summer so we may be stuck paying him big money next year... cutting into our flexibility to add talent via free agency.  Second, I just don't think Sully has anywhere near the ceiling of Noel.  Boston could slot Noel in at his natural center position.  He has the potential to be a dominant defensive force and the idea of him, Bradley and Smart together long term is a freaky proposition.   Olynyk can get the bump to starting PF.   I've long been a believer in Olynyk's shooting ability.  With minutes, he's performed (and has actually been more or less even with Sully over the past few years in per minute production).   I also feel like Noel and Olynyk would be a good fit next to each other.   Noel isn't an offensive contributor, but Olynyk's shooting makes up for it.   Two other factors to consider...  #1 - I don't see Amir as a long-term solution here.  He's here in part, because we gave him a weird 12 million unguaranteed contract that can make him exceptionally tradeable should a star become available.  I don't anticipate Amir to be here making 12 million next season.   #2 - If we hang onto that Brooklyn pick... our pipe dream is Ben Simmons.  Ben Simmons is a PF.  At some point, we need to clear out space at that position anyways... so might as well get rid of Sully before we're stuck paying him.

Why for Philly:  That's less clear.  They'd be buying high on Sully and selling low on Noel.  In theory, I imagine Sully would fit better next to Okafor.  Sully can hit some shots and even stretch the floor a tiny bit (though he's only shooting 30% from three).   Sully is a natural power forward so it might make some sense.  He's certainly a better offensive player than Noel at this point.  If I'm Philly, I look for more than Sully... and probably look for better options from other teams... but a trade idea is a trade idea, so I'm throwin it out there.  If Colangelo is really in charge (doubt it) and really wants to make immediate steps towards putting something resembling a team out there this year (doubt it), moving Noel for Sully might have some sense to it.   


Re: Trade Idea: Sully for Nerlens Noel
« Reply #1 on: December 12, 2015, 05:57:25 PM »

Offline Who

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Sully doesn't have that type of trade value.

It would need to be Smart. Or one of the Brooklyn picks.

Re: Trade Idea: Sully for Nerlens Noel
« Reply #2 on: December 12, 2015, 06:00:52 PM »

Offline mctyson

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I've been a fan of Nerlens since before he was drafted.

You tremendously overrate Noel, he is a terrible offensive player.  I don't think he will ever be even remotely capable of NBA offense.  I would only trade Sully for him if there was no way they could resign Sully longterm for a reasonable price.


Re: Trade Idea: Sully for Nerlens Noel
« Reply #3 on: December 12, 2015, 06:01:54 PM »

Offline LarBrd33

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Sully doesn't have that type of trade value.

It would need to be Smart. Or one of the Brooklyn picks.
I agree with you, Who.     But of course you got folks like mctyson (above) who would wildly disagree... so I figured I'd start the discussion.

Re: Trade Idea: Sully for Nerlens Noel
« Reply #4 on: December 12, 2015, 06:02:32 PM »

Offline CelticSince83

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I don't disagree with your rationale or the idea in general but I think Philly would need a sweetener.  Sully would help Okafor's rebounding deficiencies but my God would they need some lock down defenders on the wings with those two playing together (JS and JO). 

This goes without saying, but I think it would make more sense for Philly to move their excess bigs for a point guard and could probably get a good haul trading big for small. 

Re: Trade Idea: Sully for Nerlens Noel
« Reply #5 on: December 12, 2015, 06:06:03 PM »

Offline LarBrd33

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I don't disagree with your rationale or the idea in general but I think Philly would need a sweetener. Sully would help Okafor's rebounding deficiencies but my God would they need some lock down defenders on the wings with those two playing together (JS and JO). 

This goes without saying, but I think it would make more sense for Philly to move their excess bigs for a point guard and could probably get a good haul trading big for small.
To be clear, I'd probably trade Marcus Smart straight up for Noel right now.  You don't need to sell me on the fact that Philly would need a sweetener... but not everyone here agrees.   I do wonder if a package built around Sully would intrigue Philly, though.   Probably would have to include some late 1sts or something to have it make sense.   Philly is desperate for a PG... would Sully + Rozier for Noel make more sense to you?

Re: Trade Idea: Sully for Nerlens Noel
« Reply #6 on: December 12, 2015, 06:09:17 PM »

Offline Sketch5

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Sully doesn't have that type of trade value.

It would need to be Smart. Or one of the Brooklyn picks.

I think as of right now your over valuing Noel.

Noel-10ppg 8rpg 1bpg

Sully-10ppg 9rpg 1bpg

Sully fits with Okafor better, being able to shot from the out side. Right their ups Sully's value.

But I'm not sure Noel is a Stevens guy.

Re: Trade Idea: Sully for Nerlens Noel
« Reply #7 on: December 12, 2015, 06:09:54 PM »

Offline mctyson

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Sully doesn't have that type of trade value.

It would need to be Smart. Or one of the Brooklyn picks.
I agree with you, Who.     But of course you got folks like mctyson (above) who would wildly disagree... so I figured I'd start the discussion.

I don't disagree per se that trading Sully for someone like Noel is a bad idea.  Noel is without question an elite defensive prospect, and I love defense.  I want this franchise to build on it.

The problem is that Noel, based on what I have seen from him, simply does not have any offensive skill.  His shot is very ugly, and I don't think he has good hands (Sullinger has some of the best in the NBA).  With the way the game is being played right now, your 4s and 5s have to be able to knock down shots.  We don't need a 7-foot Rondo on this team in this NBA nowadays.  But his defense could make up for it (like Smart's does sometimes).

If Sully was truly a goner, I would do the trade.  But I think Sully brings more to this team overall in the long run, assuming he is healthy.


Re: Trade Idea: Sully for Nerlens Noel
« Reply #8 on: December 12, 2015, 06:11:10 PM »

Offline CelticSince83

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I don't disagree with your rationale or the idea in general but I think Philly would need a sweetener. Sully would help Okafor's rebounding deficiencies but my God would they need some lock down defenders on the wings with those two playing together (JS and JO). 

This goes without saying, but I think it would make more sense for Philly to move their excess bigs for a point guard and could probably get a good haul trading big for small.
To be clear, I'd probably trade Marcus Smart straight up for Noel right now.  You don't need to sell me on the fact that Philly would need a sweetener... but not everyone here agrees.   I do wonder if a package built around Sully would intrigue Philly, though.   Probably would have to include some late 1sts or something to have it make sense.   Philly is desperate for a PG... would Sully + Rozier for Noel make more sense to you?

I would too.  Trade Smart for him that is.  I would rather my center be inept offensively than my point guard.  Rozier doesn't do much for me if I am Philly.  From a PHI prospective I would be really be looking for a veteran starting caliber pg for Noel.  Nothing is coming to mind though in a two team deal. 

Re: Trade Idea: Sully for Nerlens Noel
« Reply #9 on: December 12, 2015, 06:21:56 PM »

Offline Evantime34

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I'd trade Sullinger and picks from Noel. He would make our defense complete.
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Re: Trade Idea: Sully for Nerlens Noel
« Reply #10 on: December 12, 2015, 06:24:05 PM »

Offline esel1000

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I'd trade Sullinger and picks from Noel. He would make our defense complete.

Yeah I would too but mainly because I think Sully is going to command too much money after this season

Re: Trade Idea: Sully for Nerlens Noel
« Reply #11 on: December 12, 2015, 06:44:32 PM »

Offline Vermont Green

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If you look at them both as 10pts/10rebs guys then the trade makes sense because we have extra PFs and no real center.  I have not seen enough Sixers games to understand Noel's limitations but my sense is he has more value than Sullinger.  We have enough draft picks that I would be willing to add one to make the deal happen, just not a Brooklyn pick.

Re: Trade Idea: Sully for Nerlens Noel
« Reply #12 on: December 12, 2015, 06:47:16 PM »

Offline BDeCosta26

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Your right in that if certainly takes more than Sully go get Noel, though I don't think it would require the 2016 Nets pick.

Sullinger, Rozier, the better of the Mavs/Celtics 1sts, and their 2nd back.

Re: Trade Idea: Sully for Nerlens Noel
« Reply #13 on: December 12, 2015, 06:49:41 PM »

Offline MBunge

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Sully doesn't have that type of trade value.

It would need to be Smart. Or one of the Brooklyn picks.

How much value do you think Noel has right now?  He shows elite defensive potential but can't even put up points on a horrible Philly roster and now barely functions alongside Okafor.

If you are talking about what Philly would demand, that makes sense but I'd be surprised to see anyone offer something a whole lot better than Sully right now.

Mike

Re: Trade Idea: Sully for Nerlens Noel
« Reply #14 on: December 12, 2015, 06:54:57 PM »

Offline CsBanner18

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I've been a fan of Nerlens since before he was drafted.  If this idea was proposed a couple months ago, nobody on this forum would say "no"... and I'd probably laugh off the idea as absurd.   But things change.

Philly has attempted to play Nerlens out of position at PF and it's a disaster.  He excels at protecting the rim.  They have him running around the perimeter.  I had Nerlens as the runner-up to Wiggins in Rookie of the Year last year.  He came back from his injury and just got better as the season progressed.  Over the second half he put up 13.1 points, 10 rebounds, 1.9 assists, 2.3 blocks, 2.1 steals with 49% shooting and 66% from the line.   Additionally, Philly had a top 12 defense thanks to him and the top defense in the league in minutes he was on the court.  He put up historic defensive numbers for a 20 year old rookie.   Flash forward to this season, he's struggled with injuries and seems completely inable to co-exist with Okafor.  His numbers have taken a nose-dive to 10.3 points, 8 rebounds, 1.2 assists, 1 block and 1.5 steals with 43% shooting and 58% from the line.    He's still only 21 years old.  Philly needs to shake it up at some point.   His stock isn't getting any lower than it is right now.

On the flip side, if you believe Bill Simmons, Boston was ready to cut Sully this Summer had he not gotten into shape. 



I actually wasn't as down on Sully as everyone else.  He's always been able to contribute with minutes.  And he doesn't turn 24 years old for a few months.  He's had probably his best season to date... putting up averages of 10.2 points, 9.9 rebounds, 2.5 assists, 1 block and 1 steal with 43% shooting and 64% from the line in just 26 minutes.   His per-36 numbers are pretty impressive:  14.2 points, 13.8 rebounds, 3.5 assists, 1.3 blocks, 1.3 steals  ... Still, I have plenty of concerns about him.  I feel he has a limited ceiling and questionable attitude. 

Why for Boston:  Many reasons.  For one, Sully is a restricted free agent this summer so we may be stuck paying him big money next year... cutting into our flexibility to add talent via free agency.  Second, I just don't think Sully has anywhere near the ceiling of Noel.  Boston could slot Noel in at his natural center position.  He has the potential to be a dominant defensive force and the idea of him, Bradley and Smart together long term is a freaky proposition.   Olynyk can get the bump to starting PF.   I've long been a believer in Olynyk's shooting ability.  With minutes, he's performed (and has actually been more or less even with Sully over the past few years in per minute production).   I also feel like Noel and Olynyk would be a good fit next to each other.   Noel isn't an offensive contributor, but Olynyk's shooting makes up for it.   Two other factors to consider...  #1 - I don't see Amir as a long-term solution here.  He's here in part, because we gave him a weird 12 million unguaranteed contract that can make him exceptionally tradeable should a star become available.  I don't anticipate Amir to be here making 12 million next season.   #2 - If we hang onto that Brooklyn pick... our pipe dream is Ben Simmons.  Ben Simmons is a PF.  At some point, we need to clear out space at that position anyways... so might as well get rid of Sully before we're stuck paying him.

Why for Philly:  That's less clear.  They'd be buying high on Sully and selling low on Noel.  In theory, I imagine Sully would fit better next to Okafor.  Sully can hit some shots and even stretch the floor a tiny bit (though he's only shooting 30% from three).   Sully is a natural power forward so it might make some sense.  He's certainly a better offensive player than Noel at this point.  If I'm Philly, I look for more than Sully... and probably look for better options from other teams... but a trade idea is a trade idea, so I'm throwin it out there.  If Colangelo is really in charge (doubt it) and really wants to make immediate steps towards putting something resembling a team out there this year (doubt it), moving Noel for Sully might have some sense to it.   

I'd be all for it.

Why?

1) We get Nerlens for an extra year which prolongs having to spend money.

2) Nerlens can rebound which is Sully's primary strength. He brings more shot blocking and defense to our team. Philly gets better floor spacing.

TP b/c I like the premise of your idea! However, I think it would take a bit more to pry away Nerlens.

Here's my counter proposal:

To Bos: Nerlens, Canaan
To Phi: Sully, Rozier, 2016 Min 1st

Why for Boston: We get Nerlens and our defense becomes even better. We get to say we have two little guys named Isaiah (spelled the same too)!

Why for Phi: They get Sully to space the floor better. They get Rozier who they can give plenty of minutes to. They can start Kendall Marshall & Wroten, and bring Rozier & McConnell off the bench.

The Minny pick would provide them with some incentive to do the deal, and it's likely to become two 2nd rounders.