Smart Vs. Randle

[Rosco917]

Are we having a senior moment? Didn't we do this comparison several times before?

We have Smart...we do not have Randle.

[LarBrd33]

Are we having a senior moment? Didn't we do this comparison several times before?

We have Smart...we do not have Randle.

We passed on Randle for Smart.  Ainge had considered taking Randle according to a lot of reports.  With the guy dropping double-doubles nightly, it will be something we'll always keep looking at until Smart finally breaks out.  Hopefully Smart finally breaks out.

[alldaboston]

He's literally averaging almost the same ppg as smart, on a trash team. The rebounds are nice, but he's always been a gifted rebounder. If you look at randle's stats, you'll struggle finding any defensive impact whatsoever (ok, my mistake, you'll find negative defensive impact). If all he does is fill the box score offensively, and offers little more, I have a hard time choosing him over smart.

Also, literally last week (I think), wasn't this forum exploding with joy after Smart made that great save out of bounds to keep a possession alive at the end of the game (the opponent, I don't remember, unfortunately). Marcus, put simply, does things that don't appear on a box score, but makes winning plays. Does he have an attitude problem in games? Sure. But I'd rather have a competitive fiery guy than a defensive slacker and (based on reports from lakers fans) somewhat selfish teammates.

[Csfan1984]

There are a lot of disappointed Lakers fans on Randle and their are bunch of C's fans disappointed on Smart. So I don't see how either can be compared to just yet. Let's wait till 4th years. Also Randle doesn't have an All star playing in front of him.

[loco_91]

If you look at their stats, Randle is just better. His stats are better than Jared Sullinger's already. You can technically even say this is Randle's first year. This one is on Ainge. Randle would be looking pretty good on this team right now.

Their advanced stats say just the opposite (Sullinger's advanced stats are much better too). Go to the last two lines in the link below and look at OWS (Offensive Win Shares) and other numbers to its right and Smart dominates him. The other numbers indicate that their true shooting % (TS%) are identical, Randle edge in rebounding is mostly negated by Smart's edge as a ballhandler, and Randle's slight edge overall offensively is overwhelmed by Smart's edge defensively.

http://bkref.com/tiny/m4d42

Looking at Randle compared to the top 30 PFs in minutes played per game and he's 21st in PER as an offensive indicator and 26th and 24th in defensive win shares and defensive box +/- as defensive indicators. It's a small sample, but he's not lighting the world on fire as a second year rookie.

This is a good post, but the eye test tells me Randle looks like a sure 15 and 10 in the future. I can't see Smart having that type of impact offensively. Also tbh, that would mean Randle has more value in the trade market, because I do not believe teams value Smart's defense the way us Celtics fans do. Just being honest.

So you're saying that Randle is better because other teams might erroneously discount Smart's defense? Fantastic logic!

[mrceltics2013]

I really really really do not like smart. Everyone keeps saying "how good his defense is" but thats what AB is for. His offence is terrible as all he do is jack up 3's because he's too scared to drive. When he was drafted I was disappointed, but I was like meh he was BPA so wasn't too upset. Then I saw his workout and I was like man hes built he's going to be like Dwade, but this guy will NOT DRIVE. If I Was in the NBA I could do what he does, just takes horrible forced 3pt shots. Don't believe me? Look at his stats on any game, you will always see more 3 pointers than any other shot taken by him and they are rarely above 30% from behind the line too. Until he stops begin SCARED he will never be anything but a bottom bench player or even out the league.

[Denis998]

I really really really do not like smart. Everyone keeps saying "how good his defense is" but thats what AB is for. His offence is terrible as all he do is jack up 3's because he's too scared to drive. When he was drafted I was disappointed, but I was like meh he was BPA so wasn't too upset. Then I saw his workout and I was like man hes built he's going to be like Dwade, but this guy will NOT DRIVE. If I Was in the NBA I could do what he does, just takes horrible forced 3pt shots. Don't believe me? Look at his stats on any game, you will always see more 3 pointers than any other shot taken by him and they are rarely above 30% from behind the line too. Until he stops begin SCARED he will never be anything but a bottom bench player or even out the league.

he does drive. quite regularly these days

[The Rondo Show]

It's pretty ironic to talk about taking stats out of context while using advanced stats out of context. The issue with advanced stats -- and don't get me wrong, they're valuable for a lot of reasons -- is that they can never truly factor in context, even though some are designed to. It's just impossible.

You'd have a hard time convincing me that if the two switched situations, especially with the difference in coaching, their numbers wouldn't be much different.

It's way too early to call it either way. Both have their strong suits. Both also need to do a lot of growing.

Randle is already a top flight rebounder with a raw offensive game. He's also a nightmare on defense, but luckily he has the athleticism to eventually become an average to above-average defensive presence.

Smart is an elite defender and a gifted athlete, but leaves a ton to be desired offensively. He has his hot performances, but it's hard to see us ever relying on him for consistent offense unless he becomes an above average -- at the very least -- jump shooter.

Right now, I think it's Smart all day if you're going for a higher floor, but Randle for a higher ceiling. I think both players will be in the league for a long time no matter what. Their value will depend on whether each can improve upon his deficiencies.

For this specific Celtics team, however, I think Smart is the best option.

[alldaboston]

I really really really do not like smart. Everyone keeps saying "how good his defense is" but thats what AB is for. His offence is terrible as all he do is jack up 3's because he's too scared to drive. When he was drafted I was disappointed, but I was like meh he was BPA so wasn't too upset. Then I saw his workout and I was like man hes built he's going to be like Dwade, but this guy will NOT DRIVE. If I Was in the NBA I could do what he does, just takes horrible forced 3pt shots. Don't believe me? Look at his stats on any game, you will always see more 3 pointers than any other shot taken by him and they are rarely above 30% from behind the line too. Until he stops begin SCARED he will never be anything but a bottom bench player or even out the league.

he does drive. quite regularly these days

It's become psychological with him, I'm afraid. In the past, he didn't drive bc his ankle or whatever, but now that he's healthy he wants to  drive, but a lot of times he drives he doesn't get the call upon contact, which (in my opinion) makes him hesitant to try it again

[The Rondo Show]

I really really really do not like smart. Everyone keeps saying "how good his defense is" but thats what AB is for. His offence is terrible as all he do is jack up 3's because he's too scared to drive. When he was drafted I was disappointed, but I was like meh he was BPA so wasn't too upset. Then I saw his workout and I was like man hes built he's going to be like Dwade, but this guy will NOT DRIVE. If I Was in the NBA I could do what he does, just takes horrible forced 3pt shots. Don't believe me? Look at his stats on any game, you will always see more 3 pointers than any other shot taken by him and they are rarely above 30% from behind the line too. Until he stops begin SCARED he will never be anything but a bottom bench player or even out the league.

he does drive. quite regularly these days

It's actually even. He takes 35% of his shots at the rim and 35% from 3PT. The only issue is that he's not very good from either. He shoots a horrific 47% at the rim (way below league average) and a nightmarish 28% from 3PT -- though he's improved a bit through the season. Here's his progressive shot chart this year:



You're going to have a hard time convincing anyone here that Smart is a good offensive player. He really has work to do on that end. The criticism will only get worse if he doesn't show significant improvement in year three. His offensive limitations really limit his potential, but at the very least you know you have an above average rotation player with his defense.

The bottom line of this thread comes down to how much you value one skill-set over the other. I think this Celtics team prefers defense and hustle to inside scoring and rebounding, making Smart the better option between the two mentioned in this thread.

[Iggzilla]

It's way too early to call it either way. Both have their strong suits. Both also need to do a lot of growing.

Randle is already a top flight rebounder with a raw offensive game. He's also a nightmare on defense, but luckily he has the athleticism to eventually become an average to above-average defensive presence.

Smart is an elite defender and a gifted athlete, but leaves a ton to be desired offensively. He has his hot performances, but it's hard to see us ever relying on him for consistent offense unless he becomes an above average -- at the very least -- jump shooter.

TP, you took the words right out of my mouth.

It's just too early to tell until we see them play a few years down the line, or at their peaks. Who knows, Randle might eventually grow into an above-average defender (but with his physical limitations, it looks unlikely). And Smart has occasionally shown flashes of offensive ability--he can hit threes (just needs to do it consistently) and he has this ability to get to the rim.

I'd still take Smart over Randle in a re-draft. I think Smart has much more upside for the guard position with that big frame of his (I still believe he'll evolve into a Lowry-type player in a few years). Randle's physical limitations and outdated skillset won't make him a good fit for the modern NBA, where big men are expected to space the floor and protect the rim at a respectable rate.

[mrceltics2013]

I really really really do not like smart. Everyone keeps saying "how good his defense is" but thats what AB is for. His offence is terrible as all he do is jack up 3's because he's too scared to drive. When he was drafted I was disappointed, but I was like meh he was BPA so wasn't too upset. Then I saw his workout and I was like man hes built he's going to be like Dwade, but this guy will NOT DRIVE. If I Was in the NBA I could do what he does, just takes horrible forced 3pt shots. Don't believe me? Look at his stats on any game, you will always see more 3 pointers than any other shot taken by him and they are rarely above 30% from behind the line too. Until he stops begin SCARED he will never be anything but a bottom bench player or even out the league.

he does drive. quite regularly these days

It's actually even. He takes 35% of his shots at the rim and 35% from 3PT. The only issue is that he's not very good from either. He shoots a horrific 47% at the rim (way below league average) and a nightmarish 28% from 3PT -- though he's improved a bit through the season. Here's his progressive shot chart this year:



You're going to have a hard time convincing anyone here that Smart is a good offensive player. He really has work to do on that end. The criticism will only get worse if he doesn't show significant improvement in year three. His offensive limitations really limit his potential, but at the very least you know you have an above average rotation player with his defense.

The bottom line of this thread comes down to how much you value one skill-set over the other. I think this Celtics team prefers defense and hustle to inside scoring and rebounding, making Smart the better option between the two mentioned in this thread.

Here is where I disagree. I strongly believe if we had a player whose main game was to penetrate the D we wouldn't be searching so hard for a "Star". Can you imagine someone who could drive with contact and make shots? This would open up all of our other perimeter players and we would be a legit team instantly.

[BitterJim]

I really really really do not like smart. Everyone keeps saying "how good his defense is" but thats what AB is for. His offence is terrible as all he do is jack up 3's because he's too scared to drive. When he was drafted I was disappointed, but I was like meh he was BPA so wasn't too upset. Then I saw his workout and I was like man hes built he's going to be like Dwade, but this guy will NOT DRIVE. If I Was in the NBA I could do what he does, just takes horrible forced 3pt shots. Don't believe me? Look at his stats on any game, you will always see more 3 pointers than any other shot taken by him and they are rarely above 30% from behind the line too. Until he stops begin SCARED he will never be anything but a bottom bench player or even out the league.

he does drive. quite regularly these days

It's actually even. He takes 35% of his shots at the rim and 35% from 3PT. The only issue is that he's not very good from either. He shoots a horrific 47% at the rim (way below league average) and a nightmarish 28% from 3PT -- though he's improved a bit through the season. Here's his progressive shot chart this year:



You're going to have a hard time convincing anyone here that Smart is a good offensive player. He really has work to do on that end. The criticism will only get worse if he doesn't show significant improvement in year three. His offensive limitations really limit his potential, but at the very least you know you have an above average rotation player with his defense.

The bottom line of this thread comes down to how much you value one skill-set over the other. I think this Celtics team prefers defense and hustle to inside scoring and rebounding, making Smart the better option between the two mentioned in this thread.

Here is where I disagree. I strongly believe if we had a player whose main game was to penetrate the D we wouldn't be searching so hard for a "Star". Can you imagine someone who could drive with contact and make shots? This would open up all of our other perimeter players and we would be a legit team instantly.

You mean IT?

[chambers]

I really really really do not like smart. Everyone keeps saying "how good his defense is" but thats what AB is for. His offence is terrible as all he do is jack up 3's because he's too scared to drive. When he was drafted I was disappointed, but I was like meh he was BPA so wasn't too upset. Then I saw his workout and I was like man hes built he's going to be like Dwade, but this guy will NOT DRIVE. If I Was in the NBA I could do what he does, just takes horrible forced 3pt shots. Don't believe me? Look at his stats on any game, you will always see more 3 pointers than any other shot taken by him and they are rarely above 30% from behind the line too. Until he stops begin SCARED he will never be anything but a bottom bench player or even out the league.

he does drive. quite regularly these days

It's actually even. He takes 35% of his shots at the rim and 35% from 3PT. The only issue is that he's not very good from either. He shoots a horrific 47% at the rim (way below league average) and a nightmarish 28% from 3PT -- though he's improved a bit through the season. Here's his progressive shot chart this year:



You're going to have a hard time convincing anyone here that Smart is a good offensive player. He really has work to do on that end. The criticism will only get worse if he doesn't show significant improvement in year three. His offensive limitations really limit his potential, but at the very least you know you have an above average rotation player with his defense.

The bottom line of this thread comes down to how much you value one skill-set over the other. I think this Celtics team prefers defense and hustle to inside scoring and rebounding, making Smart the better option between the two mentioned in this thread.

Good post, TP.
The encouraging thing with Marcus is that recently he's improved his shot selection and is using more patience.

What's also not shown in marcus' favor (other than RPM) is hoe many easy baskets he gets us in transition or fast breaks that lead to a Jae Crowder/IT/AB/Evan Turner layup or free throws.
He's a pretty savage defensive rebounder too.

But yeah, Marcus has a long way to go on the offensive end.
I heard Gorman say the other day something like his free throw attempts over the last 20 odd games have gone above 5 per game which is a good sign with his increased penetration.

Marcus just works so hard so the 'worry' with his offense shouldn't consume us too much yet. Right now he's a defensive stopper who Brad is giving more offensive freedom to.
He's a piece by piece project and will add things to his game every few months and especially over summer.

For his career's sake we need to either trade Bradley or let Turner walk because he can't keep coming off the bench and if he does,  he needs to play PG as much as possible.

[TheSundanceKid]

I really really really do not like smart. Everyone keeps saying "how good his defense is" but thats what AB is for. His offence is terrible as all he do is jack up 3's because he's too scared to drive. When he was drafted I was disappointed, but I was like meh he was BPA so wasn't too upset. Then I saw his workout and I was like man hes built he's going to be like Dwade, but this guy will NOT DRIVE. If I Was in the NBA I could do what he does, just takes horrible forced 3pt shots. Don't believe me? Look at his stats on any game, you will always see more 3 pointers than any other shot taken by him and they are rarely above 30% from behind the line too. Until he stops begin SCARED he will never be anything but a bottom bench player or even out the league.

he does drive. quite regularly these days

It's actually even. He takes 35% of his shots at the rim and 35% from 3PT. The only issue is that he's not very good from either. He shoots a horrific 47% at the rim (way below league average) and a nightmarish 28% from 3PT -- though he's improved a bit through the season. Here's his progressive shot chart this year:



You're going to have a hard time convincing anyone here that Smart is a good offensive player. He really has work to do on that end. The criticism will only get worse if he doesn't show significant improvement in year three. His offensive limitations really limit his potential, but at the very least you know you have an above average rotation player with his defense.

The bottom line of this thread comes down to how much you value one skill-set over the other. I think this Celtics team prefers defense and hustle to inside scoring and rebounding, making Smart the better option between the two mentioned in this thread.

Here is where I disagree. I strongly believe if we had a player whose main game was to penetrate the D we wouldn't be searching so hard for a "Star". Can you imagine someone who could drive with contact and make shots? This would open up all of our other perimeter players and we would be a legit team instantly.

You mean IT?

We have IT and Crowder drives as well (although his misses alot). We need more though. If we keep the Nets pick I love Jaylen Brown for this reason. Alternatively in FA we could go after DeRozan