A healthy Nets team misses the playoff and provides a pretty good pick/lottery chances. A team that suffers any sort of injury, as most every team does every year, is easily bottom 5.
I disagree with "any sort of injury." I think an injury to Brook Lopez that causes him to miss a month or more, or a longer term injury to Jack or Thad Young, would be enough to set them on an extended run of losing.
Their point differential, even with their terrible start to the season (with a very difficult schedule), is only at -6. That's
bad, don't get me wrong, but a handful of other teams are around that mark or well below it, suggesting the Nets aren't a clear cut horrible team the way they appeared to be at the beginning of the season, when we were all (me included) dreaming of the Nets having a repeat of their 2009 season.
My feeling all along has been that the Nets will finish in the high 20s or low 30s unless Brook Lopez misses extended time. A plausible but optimistic outlook would have them finishing around the same place the Celts finished two years ago, which was good for the #6 pick. Not bad at all, but in this draft, probably not gonna yield a future All-Star.
The Nets are not a good team, but I don't think losing Deron Williams, Mirza Teletovic, and Mason Plumlee in exchange for Andrea Bargnani and RHJ is enough to turn them from a playoff team to a team that will compete with Philadelphia and LA for a top pick.
I'm not sure why that opinion gets treated like I'm denying climate change or the Big Bang Theory around here, but so be it.