Brooklyn is going to be terrible- We really could get a top 5 pick this year...

[Moranis]

Brooklyn could contend for the National Championship with that roster. That team is beyond screwed. Brook Lopez if healthy has more talent than anyone on the Celtics roster but he's never going to be healthy. JJ is far too old to be a focal point. But I would still believe they finish just barely outside the playoff hunt. Probably around the same spot as Boston. Miami and Indiana will overtake them both. Maybe Orlando and Detroit too.

Lopez has played 7 seasons, 5 of them he has been pretty much healthy.  Now in the other 2 he missed virtually the entire season, but he is coming off a healthy season.  I don't get this notion that Lopez is guaranteed to be injured or not healthy. 

[saltlover]

Brooklyn could contend for the National Championship with that roster. That team is beyond screwed. Brook Lopez if healthy has more talent than anyone on the Celtics roster but he's never going to be healthy. JJ is far too old to be a focal point. But I would still believe they finish just barely outside the playoff hunt. Probably around the same spot as Boston. Miami and Indiana will overtake them both. Maybe Orlando and Detroit too.

Lopez has played 7 seasons, 5 of them he has been pretty much healthy.  Now in the other 2 he missed virtually the entire season, but he is coming off a healthy season.  I don't get this notion that Lopez is guaranteed to be injured or not healthy.

The notion is pretty simple.  Those two injured seasons have been in the last four seasons.  Even his two healthy seasons have seen him miss games, unlike his first three seasons where he played all 82.  Last year he played the second fewest minutes per game of his career (in games he was able to get on the court).  And his major injury that caused him to miss the better part of two nonconsecutive seasons was to the same toe.  In other words, it's something that has recurred in the past.  Combine that with the fact that recurring foot injuries have derailed many a center's career, and yeah, people aren't crazy to expect that Brook Lopez stands a good chance to miss a large portion of the season, or be in some way limited if he doesn't.  Is it a guarantee?  No.  But we live in a probabilistic world, so factoring in Brook Lopez's injury chances, and weighting them higher than those of key players on most teams, is quite reasonable.

Anyway, I think that even a fully healthy Nets team misses the playoffs and provides the Celtics with no worse than the 11th pick, and it wouldn't surprise me if they were healthy and gave us the 8th pick.  Lopez getting hurt for any extended length of time makes the bottom completely drop out of this team.  Just about everything went right for the Nets last year and they squeaked out 37 wins and won the tiebreaker with the Pacers, which gave them (Atlanta really) the 15th pick instead of the 11th pick.  They're replacing Deron Williams with Shane Larkin.  Plumlee, overrated tho he is, with Bargnani.  Alan Anderson was downright mediocre, but he's still a better player this year than RHJ.  A full season of Thaddeus Young, who's been the best player on consecutive teams that failed to win 20 games, doesn't move the needle.  Brookyln is a 30-win team when healthy.  The Celtics will get somewhere between a very good pick and a great pick.

[Moranis]

Brooklyn could contend for the National Championship with that roster. That team is beyond screwed. Brook Lopez if healthy has more talent than anyone on the Celtics roster but he's never going to be healthy. JJ is far too old to be a focal point. But I would still believe they finish just barely outside the playoff hunt. Probably around the same spot as Boston. Miami and Indiana will overtake them both. Maybe Orlando and Detroit too.

Lopez has played 7 seasons, 5 of them he has been pretty much healthy.  Now in the other 2 he missed virtually the entire season, but he is coming off a healthy season.  I don't get this notion that Lopez is guaranteed to be injured or not healthy.

The notion is pretty simple.  Those two injured seasons have been in the last four seasons.  Even his two healthy seasons have seen him miss games, unlike his first three seasons where he played all 82.  Last year he played the second fewest minutes per game of his career (in games he was able to get on the court).  And his major injury that caused him to miss the better part of two nonconsecutive seasons was to the same toe.  In other words, it's something that has recurred in the past.  Combine that with the fact that recurring foot injuries have derailed many a center's career, and yeah, people aren't crazy to expect that Brook Lopez stands a good chance to miss a large portion of the season, or be in some way limited if he doesn't.  Is it a guarantee?  No.  But we live in a probabilistic world, so factoring in Brook Lopez's injury chances, and weighting them higher than those of key players on most teams, is quite reasonable.

Anyway, I think that even a fully healthy Nets team misses the playoffs and provides the Celtics with no worse than the 11th pick, and it wouldn't surprise me if they were healthy and gave us the 8th pick.  Lopez getting hurt for any extended length of time makes the bottom completely drop out of this team.  Just about everything went right for the Nets last year and they squeaked out 37 wins and won the tiebreaker with the Pacers, which gave them (Atlanta really) the 15th pick instead of the 11th pick.  They're replacing Deron Williams with Shane Larkin.  Plumlee, overrated tho he is, with Bargnani.  Alan Anderson was downright mediocre, but he's still a better player this year than RHJ.  A full season of Thaddeus Young, who's been the best player on consecutive teams that failed to win 20 games, doesn't move the needle.  Brookyln is a 30-win team when healthy.  The Celtics will get somewhere between a very good pick and a great pick.

Brook Lopez played more minutes last year then every current Celtic aside from Avery Bradley and Evan Turner.  Mind you that is the same Avery Bradley that has only played in 74% of the available games 2 years in his 5 year career.   David Lee was only able to play in 49 games last year at a whopping 904 minutes.  Even Amir Johnson was barely at 26 minutes a game and his career best is under 29 minutes.  Sullinger is more likely to miss time than Lopez based on his career thus far. 

Lopez finished last year healthy.  To start the year he was a little banged up and a small injury early on, but he was a monster down the stretch and in the playoffs, both in production and playing time.  During that 13-6 stretch to finish the year, Lopez had 4 separate 30/10 games and a couple of more that were close (32/9, 26/10), he was also a very active shot blocker something that he had been missing earlier last year (7 of the 19 games over 3 and just 2 games with 0).  He is also just 27. 

I just don't buy this notion that there is a high probability he will be injured.  Sure he could be and he obviously has higher odds than say someone like Kelly Olynyk, but I fully expect Lopez to be healthy next year and for Brooklyn to ride him to a mid to upper 30 win total.  I think expecting anything else is just wishful thinking and not really based on much of anything other than that wishful thinking.

[saltlover]

Brooklyn could contend for the National Championship with that roster. That team is beyond screwed. Brook Lopez if healthy has more talent than anyone on the Celtics roster but he's never going to be healthy. JJ is far too old to be a focal point. But I would still believe they finish just barely outside the playoff hunt. Probably around the same spot as Boston. Miami and Indiana will overtake them both. Maybe Orlando and Detroit too.

Lopez has played 7 seasons, 5 of them he has been pretty much healthy.  Now in the other 2 he missed virtually the entire season, but he is coming off a healthy season.  I don't get this notion that Lopez is guaranteed to be injured or not healthy.

The notion is pretty simple.  Those two injured seasons have been in the last four seasons.  Even his two healthy seasons have seen him miss games, unlike his first three seasons where he played all 82.  Last year he played the second fewest minutes per game of his career (in games he was able to get on the court).  And his major injury that caused him to miss the better part of two nonconsecutive seasons was to the same toe.  In other words, it's something that has recurred in the past.  Combine that with the fact that recurring foot injuries have derailed many a center's career, and yeah, people aren't crazy to expect that Brook Lopez stands a good chance to miss a large portion of the season, or be in some way limited if he doesn't.  Is it a guarantee?  No.  But we live in a probabilistic world, so factoring in Brook Lopez's injury chances, and weighting them higher than those of key players on most teams, is quite reasonable.

Anyway, I think that even a fully healthy Nets team misses the playoffs and provides the Celtics with no worse than the 11th pick, and it wouldn't surprise me if they were healthy and gave us the 8th pick.  Lopez getting hurt for any extended length of time makes the bottom completely drop out of this team.  Just about everything went right for the Nets last year and they squeaked out 37 wins and won the tiebreaker with the Pacers, which gave them (Atlanta really) the 15th pick instead of the 11th pick.  They're replacing Deron Williams with Shane Larkin.  Plumlee, overrated tho he is, with Bargnani.  Alan Anderson was downright mediocre, but he's still a better player this year than RHJ.  A full season of Thaddeus Young, who's been the best player on consecutive teams that failed to win 20 games, doesn't move the needle.  Brookyln is a 30-win team when healthy.  The Celtics will get somewhere between a very good pick and a great pick.

Brook Lopez played more minutes last year then every current Celtic aside from Avery Bradley and Evan Turner.  Mind you that is the same Avery Bradley that has only played in 74% of the available games 2 years in his 5 year career.   David Lee was only able to play in 49 games last year at a whopping 904 minutes.  Even Amir Johnson was barely at 26 minutes a game and his career best is under 29 minutes.  Sullinger is more likely to miss time than Lopez based on his career thus far. 

Lopez finished last year healthy.  To start the year he was a little banged up and a small injury early on, but he was a monster down the stretch and in the playoffs, both in production and playing time.  During that 13-6 stretch to finish the year, Lopez had 4 separate 30/10 games and a couple of more that were close (32/9, 26/10), he was also a very active shot blocker something that he had been missing earlier last year (7 of the 19 games over 3 and just 2 games with 0).  He is also just 27. 

I just don't buy this notion that there is a high probability he will be injured.  Sure he could be and he obviously has higher odds than say someone like Kelly Olynyk, but I fully expect Lopez to be healthy next year and for Brooklyn to ride him to a mid to upper 30 win total.  I think expecting anything else is just wishful thinking and not really based on much of anything other than that wishful thinking.

I don't really understand the purpose of comparing Lopez' minutes to those of Avery Bradley.  Have I or anyone else argued that Bradley is going to play 2600 minutes this season?  I fully expect AB to miss 5-10 games with an ankle injury or two.

As for healthy Lopez getting the Nets to mid-to-upper 30 wins -- again, they had healthy Lopez last year.  You just proved it.  That got them to 37 wins.  Their roster is worse this year than last.  And last year, with healthy Lopez, they had the scoring differential of a 32-win team.  Don't run from regression to the mean.  The Nets are a 30 win team, with a healthy Lopez.  And that's why most are excited, because without a healthy Lopez, you're talking top 5 pick.

[Moranis]

Thad Young makes the Nets better (you saw that down the stretch).  Plumlee, who was at a whopping 8 minutes a game in the playoffs, was traded for a defensive minded SF (albeit a rookie), but I actually think that improves their team by providing better roster continuity.  I don't think they are worse than they were last year.  Probably right about the same.

[slamtheking]

guys this is seriously getting ridiculous. I cant find a single sportsbook that has the nets at over 33 wins. If you really think they will 35-40 games go place a huge bet and rub the money in our face. Otherwise, you kind of just come off like a jerk. If i say I think the Patriots are going to make the playoffs i don't really need to give much of an explanation. Everyone expects and agrees they most likely will. On the opposite end of that, if I said I thought the Jets would make the playoffs i would need a hell of a lot of advanced statistics and reasoning to make an argument that was compelling against all other predictions and statistics. In the case of the nets backers here, you are the jets fans. Every sports site has the Nets bottom of the east. You feel differently, burden is on you. Dont call people homers for agreeing with the general consensus.

THis is year 4 of people expecting the Nets to bottom out.  People have been writing them off since KG and Pierce had a slow start.  Whatever.  There's no incentive for them to be bad.  You're more likely to see Boston change gears and tank than you are to see Brooklyn end up at the bottom of the standings.

Actually, I'd say it's year 2, not year 4.  people expected the addition of KG and PP to put them into contention for the most part.

They may have no incentive to be bad but they can still be bad even if they're trying to win. 

- Their top 5 to close out a game will be Jack, Johnson, Young, Lopez and either Bargnani or Bogdonovic (?).   that's not the worst 5 players that can be put on the floor in the league but that lineup is a defensive sieve.  if the game is close in the final few minutes and they're not playing a top team, they may win a few games down the stretch. not many though

- The rest of the game they'll have to rely on weak bench.  this is when I expect them to get killed in games by teams with better benches or have their starters playing longer minutes against weaker opposition to press the advantage.  Also, should the Nets top 5/6 suffer injury and miss games, they have no quality depth on their bench so the production dropoff will be significant from the starters.

- Also, the rest of the East improved.  Sure, one could argue if Detroit or Charlotte really improved with their offseason moves but IMHO, I think they did somewhat.  Certainly shouldn't be easy marks for the Nets in terms of picking up wins. 

- Nets finished 8th last year and did not improve.  The 7 teams that finished better than them should do so again.  Miami and Indy are getting back top players from injury and made other offseason moves to further improve.  They will finish better than the Nets as well.  That makes the Nets as 10th best tops right there.  NY will be better -- Melo/Afflalo/Lopez isn't all that worse off than the Nets -- could even argue that with Melo being superior to anyone on the Nets, the Knicks could finish better in the end.  Charlotte and Detroit have more overall talent so they could (and I think should) finish better than the Nets.  Orlando has some up-and-coming talent.  I would not be surprised to see them pass the Nets either (tbh, I'm anticipating that to happen).

- can only really say the Philly is certain to finish with a worse record.

Still expect the Brooklyn pick to end up in the 12-17 range.  The majority of arguments made to explain why they will bottom out can also be applied to the Boston Celtics.  "The East got better... their late season success isn't sustainable... lack of talent", etc.

The problem with that line of thinking is that the Celtics are a younger team and will likely improve from last season. The C's have also improved their roster, while the Nets have regressed. There is also talk that Joe Johnson, who averaged 35 minutes last season, will have his minutes reduced.

Players that will get playing time and excluding end of bench guys/D-league bound guys

* 14-15 minutes per game in parentheses

Cs in
Johnson
Lee

Cs out
Bass (23.5)
Datome (10.7)



Nets in
Larkin
Robinson
Ellington
Bargnani


Nets out
Williams (34.9)
Teletovic (22.3)
Anderson (23.6)
Plumlee (21.3)

The Nets have a pretty bad roster when analyzed objectively (cough, cough) and not just trying to argue for the sake of argument. Also, in a league that is so PG dominant the Nets not only have the worst PG duo in the league (Jack/Larkin), but one of the worst duos of the last several seasons.

Unfortunately that is what this has dissolved to. You got people on one side of the "arguement" pointing out objective third party rankings, advanced statistics and some things that are common sense (35 year old players regress) while the other side is stomping their feet and saying "meh i dont care about any stats, facts or arguments and i'm taking my bad and ball and going home."

No "argument" to be made.  They still have their franchise players.   I'd be shocked to see Brooklyn finish in the bottom 5.  There's no way to "win" an argument that is purely a prediction.  Just have to see how the season plays out.  Diving into this deeply is a waste of effort.  I've seen Joe Johnson effectively run point in the past.  Lopez is still a beast when healthy.   Should be plenty mediocre this year.

Well basically you're saying that this 'perennial playoff contender' with 'franchise players' ends up somewhere between the 12th and 17th pick. The Jazz finished 12th last year, so you've left yourself a wiiiiide margin for being right haha.

The majority consensus here is that they end up 10th-13th in the East, with a pick inside the top 10 for us. But if they have a major injury (reasonably possible) then they'll really crash hard.
Thin bench+ (as you describe) injury prone/aging 'franchise' players ain't the recipe for success.

So even if Lopez goes down, or Johnson goes down, you think the worst they can do is finish with the 12th pick?

Lol if either of those guys was on our team you'd probably be calling them scrubs- but that's what I like about your input to the board- you're not afraid to make people question their conclusions- it's just very hard to get you to question yours.

Welp let's hope the "consensus" ends up being worth more than the typical going rate of jack squat.  Boston was supposed to be a bottom 3 team last year.  It didn't work out.  Brooklyn will be fine.

I think that could be where you thought they would finish, but not an opinion of the masses. That said, given your impressive track record of Celtics preseason predictions I think it's actually a plus that you think they'll be bad.

Remember this C's 14-15 preseason prediction?

30 wins 12th seed

I mean you were only off by 25% in wins/losses and 5 seeds. You're the Ace Rothstein of Celtics blog.

TP for the effort to dig that up. 

[slamtheking]

Brooklyn could contend for the National Championship with that roster. That team is beyond screwed. Brook Lopez if healthy has more talent than anyone on the Celtics roster but he's never going to be healthy. JJ is far too old to be a focal point. But I would still believe they finish just barely outside the playoff hunt. Probably around the same spot as Boston. Miami and Indiana will overtake them both. Maybe Orlando and Detroit too.

Lopez has played 7 seasons, 5 of them he has been pretty much healthy.  Now in the other 2 he missed virtually the entire season, but he is coming off a healthy season.  I don't get this notion that Lopez is guaranteed to be injured or not healthy.

The notion is pretty simple.  Those two injured seasons have been in the last four seasons.  Even his two healthy seasons have seen him miss games, unlike his first three seasons where he played all 82.  Last year he played the second fewest minutes per game of his career (in games he was able to get on the court).  And his major injury that caused him to miss the better part of two nonconsecutive seasons was to the same toe.  In other words, it's something that has recurred in the past.  Combine that with the fact that recurring foot injuries have derailed many a center's career, and yeah, people aren't crazy to expect that Brook Lopez stands a good chance to miss a large portion of the season, or be in some way limited if he doesn't.  Is it a guarantee?  No.  But we live in a probabilistic world, so factoring in Brook Lopez's injury chances, and weighting them higher than those of key players on most teams, is quite reasonable.

Anyway, I think that even a fully healthy Nets team misses the playoffs and provides the Celtics with no worse than the 11th pick, and it wouldn't surprise me if they were healthy and gave us the 8th pick.  Lopez getting hurt for any extended length of time makes the bottom completely drop out of this team.  Just about everything went right for the Nets last year and they squeaked out 37 wins and won the tiebreaker with the Pacers, which gave them (Atlanta really) the 15th pick instead of the 11th pick.  They're replacing Deron Williams with Shane Larkin.  Plumlee, overrated tho he is, with Bargnani.  Alan Anderson was downright mediocre, but he's still a better player this year than RHJ.  A full season of Thaddeus Young, who's been the best player on consecutive teams that failed to win 20 games, doesn't move the needle.  Brookyln is a 30-win team when healthy.  The Celtics will get somewhere between a very good pick and a great pick.

Brook Lopez played more minutes last year then every current Celtic aside from Avery Bradley and Evan Turner.  Mind you that is the same Avery Bradley that has only played in 74% of the available games 2 years in his 5 year career.   David Lee was only able to play in 49 games last year at a whopping 904 minutes.  Even Amir Johnson was barely at 26 minutes a game and his career best is under 29 minutes.  Sullinger is more likely to miss time than Lopez based on his career thus far. 

Lopez finished last year healthy.  To start the year he was a little banged up and a small injury early on, but he was a monster down the stretch and in the playoffs, both in production and playing time.  During that 13-6 stretch to finish the year, Lopez had 4 separate 30/10 games and a couple of more that were close (32/9, 26/10), he was also a very active shot blocker something that he had been missing earlier last year (7 of the 19 games over 3 and just 2 games with 0).  He is also just 27. 

I just don't buy this notion that there is a high probability he will be injured.  Sure he could be and he obviously has higher odds than say someone like Kelly Olynyk, but I fully expect Lopez to be healthy next year and for Brooklyn to ride him to a mid to upper 30 win total.  I think expecting anything else is just wishful thinking and not really based on much of anything other than that wishful thinking.

I don't really understand the purpose of comparing Lopez' minutes to those of Avery Bradley.  Have I or anyone else argued that Bradley is going to play 2600 minutes this season?  I fully expect AB to miss 5-10 games with an ankle injury or two.

As for healthy Lopez getting the Nets to mid-to-upper 30 wins -- again, they had healthy Lopez last year.  You just proved it.  That got them to 37 wins.  Their roster is worse this year than last.  And last year, with healthy Lopez, they had the scoring differential of a 32-win team.  Don't run from regression to the mean.  The Nets are a 30 win team, with a healthy Lopez.  And that's why most are excited, because without a healthy Lopez, you're talking top 5 pick.

exactly.

also that comparison means nothing when considering Brad was juggling playing time amongst 10-12 players on that active roster at any time during the season so the players' average and total minutes would be low.  Lopez would play higher minutes for the Nets out of necessity since their bench was (and still is) crap.

[colincb]

guys this is seriously getting ridiculous. I cant find a single sportsbook that has the nets at over 33 wins. If you really think they will 35-40 games go place a huge bet and rub the money in our face. Otherwise, you kind of just come off like a jerk. If i say I think the Patriots are going to make the playoffs i don't really need to give much of an explanation. Everyone expects and agrees they most likely will. On the opposite end of that, if I said I thought the Jets would make the playoffs i would need a hell of a lot of advanced statistics and reasoning to make an argument that was compelling against all other predictions and statistics. In the case of the nets backers here, you are the jets fans. Every sports site has the Nets bottom of the east. You feel differently, burden is on you. Dont call people homers for agreeing with the general consensus.

THis is year 4 of people expecting the Nets to bottom out.  People have been writing them off since KG and Pierce had a slow start.  Whatever.  There's no incentive for them to be bad.  You're more likely to see Boston change gears and tank than you are to see Brooklyn end up at the bottom of the standings.

2012 49 wins
2013 44 wins
2014 38 wins
2015 ? wins

Seems to be a trend there. Lost one of their better players in DWill and jettisoned some other useful pieces to save money. The Russian has made a huge profit on paper if he wants to sell.

Why do they need an incentive to be bad?

Lopez inexplicably spent the bulk of the season coming off the bench.  When he started next to Thad young they played at a 56 win pace.

11-9 when they started together in regular season, 13-13 including playoffs. Neither is a 56 game pace.

Brooklyn finished the season 13-5.  My bad... that's a 59 win pace.  I was just going off memory from the last dozen times we've had threads on this wishful thinking topic.   

But nice point about the playoffs.  Based on playoffs, Boston will go 0-82 this season.

First your numbers were wrong, then you cherry-pick a sample size more favorable to your argument. Same ole Andy.

[JBcat]

Thad Young makes the Nets better (you saw that down the stretch).  Plumlee, who was at a whopping 8 minutes a game in the playoffs, was traded for a defensive minded SF (albeit a rookie), but I actually think that improves their team by providing better roster continuity.  I don't think they are worse than they were last year.  Probably right about the same.

Even if the Nets quality of play is roughly the same this year IMO they were very lucky to make the playoffs last year.  I think many of the East bottom feeders have improved, and I would guess at least 3 out of these 6 teams Heat, Pacers, Hornets, Magic, Pistons, or Knicks will leapfrog them this year.

I think you could see a little more parity with maybe the Wizards, Raptors, Bulls, and Hawks not winning as many games as last year.

[Moranis]

Brooklyn could contend for the National Championship with that roster. That team is beyond screwed. Brook Lopez if healthy has more talent than anyone on the Celtics roster but he's never going to be healthy. JJ is far too old to be a focal point. But I would still believe they finish just barely outside the playoff hunt. Probably around the same spot as Boston. Miami and Indiana will overtake them both. Maybe Orlando and Detroit too.

Lopez has played 7 seasons, 5 of them he has been pretty much healthy.  Now in the other 2 he missed virtually the entire season, but he is coming off a healthy season.  I don't get this notion that Lopez is guaranteed to be injured or not healthy.

The notion is pretty simple.  Those two injured seasons have been in the last four seasons.  Even his two healthy seasons have seen him miss games, unlike his first three seasons where he played all 82.  Last year he played the second fewest minutes per game of his career (in games he was able to get on the court).  And his major injury that caused him to miss the better part of two nonconsecutive seasons was to the same toe.  In other words, it's something that has recurred in the past.  Combine that with the fact that recurring foot injuries have derailed many a center's career, and yeah, people aren't crazy to expect that Brook Lopez stands a good chance to miss a large portion of the season, or be in some way limited if he doesn't.  Is it a guarantee?  No.  But we live in a probabilistic world, so factoring in Brook Lopez's injury chances, and weighting them higher than those of key players on most teams, is quite reasonable.

Anyway, I think that even a fully healthy Nets team misses the playoffs and provides the Celtics with no worse than the 11th pick, and it wouldn't surprise me if they were healthy and gave us the 8th pick.  Lopez getting hurt for any extended length of time makes the bottom completely drop out of this team.  Just about everything went right for the Nets last year and they squeaked out 37 wins and won the tiebreaker with the Pacers, which gave them (Atlanta really) the 15th pick instead of the 11th pick.  They're replacing Deron Williams with Shane Larkin.  Plumlee, overrated tho he is, with Bargnani.  Alan Anderson was downright mediocre, but he's still a better player this year than RHJ.  A full season of Thaddeus Young, who's been the best player on consecutive teams that failed to win 20 games, doesn't move the needle.  Brookyln is a 30-win team when healthy.  The Celtics will get somewhere between a very good pick and a great pick.

Brook Lopez played more minutes last year then every current Celtic aside from Avery Bradley and Evan Turner.  Mind you that is the same Avery Bradley that has only played in 74% of the available games 2 years in his 5 year career.   David Lee was only able to play in 49 games last year at a whopping 904 minutes.  Even Amir Johnson was barely at 26 minutes a game and his career best is under 29 minutes.  Sullinger is more likely to miss time than Lopez based on his career thus far. 

Lopez finished last year healthy.  To start the year he was a little banged up and a small injury early on, but he was a monster down the stretch and in the playoffs, both in production and playing time.  During that 13-6 stretch to finish the year, Lopez had 4 separate 30/10 games and a couple of more that were close (32/9, 26/10), he was also a very active shot blocker something that he had been missing earlier last year (7 of the 19 games over 3 and just 2 games with 0).  He is also just 27. 

I just don't buy this notion that there is a high probability he will be injured.  Sure he could be and he obviously has higher odds than say someone like Kelly Olynyk, but I fully expect Lopez to be healthy next year and for Brooklyn to ride him to a mid to upper 30 win total.  I think expecting anything else is just wishful thinking and not really based on much of anything other than that wishful thinking.

I don't really understand the purpose of comparing Lopez' minutes to those of Avery Bradley.  Have I or anyone else argued that Bradley is going to play 2600 minutes this season?  I fully expect AB to miss 5-10 games with an ankle injury or two.

As for healthy Lopez getting the Nets to mid-to-upper 30 wins -- again, they had healthy Lopez last year.  You just proved it.  That got them to 37 wins.  Their roster is worse this year than last.  And last year, with healthy Lopez, they had the scoring differential of a 32-win team.  Don't run from regression to the mean.  The Nets are a 30 win team, with a healthy Lopez.  And that's why most are excited, because without a healthy Lopez, you're talking top 5 pick.

exactly.

also that comparison means nothing when considering Brad was juggling playing time amongst 10-12 players on that active roster at any time during the season so the players' average and total minutes would be low.  Lopez would play higher minutes for the Nets out of necessity since their bench was (and still is) crap.

And the Nets didn't.  Boston had 14 players finish with 500 minutes or more.  Brooklyn had 13.

[Moranis]

Thad Young makes the Nets better (you saw that down the stretch).  Plumlee, who was at a whopping 8 minutes a game in the playoffs, was traded for a defensive minded SF (albeit a rookie), but I actually think that improves their team by providing better roster continuity.  I don't think they are worse than they were last year.  Probably right about the same.

Even if the Nets quality of play is roughly the same this year IMO they were very lucky to make the playoffs last year.  I think many of the East bottom feeders have improved, and I would guess at least 3 out of these 6 teams Heat, Pacers, Hornets, Magic, Pistons, or Knicks will leapfrog them this year.

I think you could see a little more parity with maybe the Wizards, Raptors, Bulls, and Hawks not winning as many games as last year.

I tend to agree with you on making them not making playoffs, I just think the Nets will be a mid-30 win team again.  Probably doesn't back door into the playoffs, but also probably isn't even a top 10 pick let alone top 5. 

[Csfan1984]

Very likely Nets fall out of playoffs yet if it's 5-10 record wise doesn't matter too much given there is still the draft lottery to play out. Never know if C's finally luck out in that horror show. They are due right?

[Boris Badenov]

From here on out I'm going to refer to him as "When Healthy Brook Lopez."

https://www.google.com/webhp?sourceid=chrome-instant&ion=1&espv=2&ie=UTF-8#q=%22when%20healthy%20brook%20lopez%22

[PhoSita]

They don't have to make the playoffs for the pick to end up in the 8-12 range.  They just have to be on the lower end of mediocre.  That seems fairly likely.

I'll still be happy if they send a pick in that range our way -- we might get a couple around there.  A pick in that area would've yielded Justise Winslow, Stanley Johnson, or Myles Turner in this year's draft.  I'd be thrilled to add a couple of similar talents to the team.

I just think that people who are expecting the Nets to gift us a top 5 pick need to dial back those expectations a bit.

Perhaps Danny can trade a handful of picks to move up from the back of the top 10 closer to the top, if the picks fall the right way.  Sounds like this might not be the best draft for that kind of trade, though.

[Evantime34]

Brooklyn could contend for the National Championship with that roster. That team is beyond screwed. Brook Lopez if healthy has more talent than anyone on the Celtics roster but he's never going to be healthy. JJ is far too old to be a focal point. But I would still believe they finish just barely outside the playoff hunt. Probably around the same spot as Boston. Miami and Indiana will overtake them both. Maybe Orlando and Detroit too.

Lopez has played 7 seasons, 5 of them he has been pretty much healthy.  Now in the other 2 he missed virtually the entire season, but he is coming off a healthy season.  I don't get this notion that Lopez is guaranteed to be injured or not healthy.

Last year he only missed 10 games, but he was limited in a lot of other games when he came back from injury which is evident in only starting 44 of the 72 games he played in.

Lopez missed 2 seasons in his last 4 years, only playing in 51% of the possible games the last 4 years. Since 2011 he hasn't played more than 2300 minutes in a season, for a Celtics based reference Avery Bradley played 2428 minutes last year.

The reason I think he is more likely than not (I won't go as far as saying guaranteed) to not be healthy is because I think recent health is a lot more important than health over the life of ones career.

The problem with him playing limited minutes to stay healthy and/or missing a bunch of games is the Nets are one of the thinnest teams in the league. If he or one of their main fixtures goes down it will hurt them badly.