Brooklyn is going to be terrible- We really could get a top 5 pick this year...

[LarBrd33]

guys this is seriously getting ridiculous. I cant find a single sportsbook that has the nets at over 33 wins. If you really think they will 35-40 games go place a huge bet and rub the money in our face. Otherwise, you kind of just come off like a jerk. If i say I think the Patriots are going to make the playoffs i don't really need to give much of an explanation. Everyone expects and agrees they most likely will. On the opposite end of that, if I said I thought the Jets would make the playoffs i would need a hell of a lot of advanced statistics and reasoning to make an argument that was compelling against all other predictions and statistics. In the case of the nets backers here, you are the jets fans. Every sports site has the Nets bottom of the east. You feel differently, burden is on you. Dont call people homers for agreeing with the general consensus.

THis is year 4 of people expecting the Nets to bottom out.  People have been writing them off since KG and Pierce had a slow start.  Whatever.  There's no incentive for them to be bad.  You're more likely to see Boston change gears and tank than you are to see Brooklyn end up at the bottom of the standings.

2012 49 wins
2013 44 wins
2014 38 wins
2015 ? wins

Seems to be a trend there. Lost one of their better players in DWill and jettisoned some other useful pieces to save money. The Russian has made a huge profit on paper if he wants to sell.

Why do they need an incentive to be bad?

Lopez inexplicably spent the bulk of the season coming off the bench.  When he started next to Thad young they played at a 56 win pace.

[slamtheking]

guys this is seriously getting ridiculous. I cant find a single sportsbook that has the nets at over 33 wins. If you really think they will 35-40 games go place a huge bet and rub the money in our face. Otherwise, you kind of just come off like a jerk. If i say I think the Patriots are going to make the playoffs i don't really need to give much of an explanation. Everyone expects and agrees they most likely will. On the opposite end of that, if I said I thought the Jets would make the playoffs i would need a hell of a lot of advanced statistics and reasoning to make an argument that was compelling against all other predictions and statistics. In the case of the nets backers here, you are the jets fans. Every sports site has the Nets bottom of the east. You feel differently, burden is on you. Dont call people homers for agreeing with the general consensus.

THis is year 4 of people expecting the Nets to bottom out.  People have been writing them off since KG and Pierce had a slow start.  Whatever.  There's no incentive for them to be bad.  You're more likely to see Boston change gears and tank than you are to see Brooklyn end up at the bottom of the standings.

Actually, I'd say it's year 2, not year 4.  people expected the addition of KG and PP to put them into contention for the most part.

They may have no incentive to be bad but they can still be bad even if they're trying to win. 

- Their top 5 to close out a game will be Jack, Johnson, Young, Lopez and either Bargnani or Bogdonovic (?).   that's not the worst 5 players that can be put on the floor in the league but that lineup is a defensive sieve.  if the game is close in the final few minutes and they're not playing a top team, they may win a few games down the stretch. not many though

- The rest of the game they'll have to rely on weak bench.  this is when I expect them to get killed in games by teams with better benches or have their starters playing longer minutes against weaker opposition to press the advantage.  Also, should the Nets top 5/6 suffer injury and miss games, they have no quality depth on their bench so the production dropoff will be significant from the starters.

- Also, the rest of the East improved.  Sure, one could argue if Detroit or Charlotte really improved with their offseason moves but IMHO, I think they did somewhat.  Certainly shouldn't be easy marks for the Nets in terms of picking up wins. 

- Nets finished 8th last year and did not improve.  The 7 teams that finished better than them should do so again.  Miami and Indy are getting back top players from injury and made other offseason moves to further improve.  They will finish better than the Nets as well.  That makes the Nets as 10th best tops right there.  NY will be better -- Melo/Afflalo/Lopez isn't all that worse off than the Nets -- could even argue that with Melo being superior to anyone on the Nets, the Knicks could finish better in the end.  Charlotte and Detroit have more overall talent so they could (and I think should) finish better than the Nets.  Orlando has some up-and-coming talent.  I would not be surprised to see them pass the Nets either (tbh, I'm anticipating that to happen).

- can only really say the Philly is certain to finish with a worse record.

[LooseCannon]

Lopez inexplicably spent the bulk of the season coming off the bench.  When he started next to Thad young they played at a 56 win pace.

It's easy to explain in two words: Lionel Hollins. 

[The Walker Wiggle]

Johnson isn't a bordeline all-star and hasn't been one for years.  The only thing Johnson was ever exceptional at was scoring and that has been on a serious decline over the past three seasons.

If you want to be a contrarian wet blanket, is it too much to ask that you AT LEAST base it on facts?

Jesus Joe was an All Star in 2014? He's also still one of the best late game scorers in the league, shooting a higher percentage over the past three seasons in close, end-of-game situations than Lebron, Curry, Melo, Kobe, even our guy Pierce.

Come on, let's not let facts get in the way.

You honestly believe that? Johnson shooting better in late game situations than Curry or LeBron? The guy's hit his share of game winners, but so has Rudy Gay.

Last 3 seasons average FG% in final 5 Mins.
Johnson 39%
LeBron 44.6%
Curry 40.1%
Melo 38.6%
Pierce 41.1%

And Johnson's All-Star bid in 2014 was argued at the time and was pretty much solely due to a hot streak in January. For what it's worth, Hibbert was an All-Star as recently as 2014 too.

Let's agree that we all believe what we're saying? Also I'm focused on close games. I don't care if Lebron or Steph is better at running up the score on the 76ers to close out a twenty point win at home.

Nobody else thinks we'll see an uptick in Joe's production with Deron gone? I never felt the two were all that compatible.

[The Walker Wiggle]

It's not crazy to think that the Nets might miss the playoffs, it's not crazy to think that that Nets could finish well inside the Lottery and that we'd get a top 5 pick next year.

But it's not realistic to think that the Nets will probably finish with a top 5 pick, anymore than its realistic to believe you'll win a scratch off ticket. It could happen, but it would require some improbable events.

Co-sign this guy.

[SHAQATTACK]

As Lopez goes the Nets go.



No Plumlee , if Lopez goes down


Could be a train Wreck .....or the Celtics luck he ll. have a career year.

We should have trade for him .....this would have Bought us a top five lottery pick

[Moranis]

I made a thread on this, but seems like a good thread to bring it back up.

Say it is just before the trade deadline.  Lopez is healthy, playing very well, and the Nets are looking like they might make or will just miss the playoffs.  Say the Nets call up Ainge and offer Lopez for their own pick back and Lee (or some combination of non-essential players that get the required salary).  Now you may be thinking why would either team do this, well the Nets do this because without Lopez they know their season will crater and they will get a high pick and Boston does it because Lopez becomes Boston's best player and is easily worth a late lottery pick.  Is that something you would do?

[indeedproceed]

I made a thread on this, but seems like a good thread to bring it back up.

Say it is just before the trade deadline.  Lopez is healthy, playing very well, and the Nets are looking like they might make or will just miss the playoffs.  Say the Nets call up Ainge and offer Lopez for their own pick back and Lee (or some combination of non-essential players that get the required salary).  Now you may be thinking why would either team do this, well the Nets do this because without Lopez they know their season will crater and they will get a high pick and Boston does it because Lopez becomes Boston's best player and is easily worth a late lottery pick.  Is that something you would do?

I don't make the trade. I don't think we have the personnel to maximize Lopez, and I don't want to build a team around him.

[Moranis]

I made a thread on this, but seems like a good thread to bring it back up.

Say it is just before the trade deadline.  Lopez is healthy, playing very well, and the Nets are looking like they might make or will just miss the playoffs.  Say the Nets call up Ainge and offer Lopez for their own pick back and Lee (or some combination of non-essential players that get the required salary).  Now you may be thinking why would either team do this, well the Nets do this because without Lopez they know their season will crater and they will get a high pick and Boston does it because Lopez becomes Boston's best player and is easily worth a late lottery pick.  Is that something you would do?

I don't make the trade. I don't think we have the personnel to maximize Lopez, and I don't want to build a team around him.

fair enough, though he would be Boston's best player and a pick in the 10-17 range and a guy like Lee that has no long term future, seems like pretty darn good value for a player that instantly becomes your best player.  Seems like it would be easier to find a defensive minded PF, then an offensively gifted center.  Lopez is also a lot more likely to draw other free agents to Boston than anyone Boston would trade for him. 

[indeedproceed]

I made a thread on this, but seems like a good thread to bring it back up.

Say it is just before the trade deadline.  Lopez is healthy, playing very well, and the Nets are looking like they might make or will just miss the playoffs.  Say the Nets call up Ainge and offer Lopez for their own pick back and Lee (or some combination of non-essential players that get the required salary).  Now you may be thinking why would either team do this, well the Nets do this because without Lopez they know their season will crater and they will get a high pick and Boston does it because Lopez becomes Boston's best player and is easily worth a late lottery pick.  Is that something you would do?

I don't make the trade. I don't think we have the personnel to maximize Lopez, and I don't want to build a team around him.

fair enough, though he would be Boston's best player and a pick in the 10-17 range and a guy like Lee that has no long term future, seems like pretty darn good value for a player that instantly becomes your best player.  Seems like it would be easier to find a defensive minded PF, then an offensively gifted center.  Lopez is also a lot more likely to draw other free agents to Boston than anyone Boston would trade for him. 

Not denying the value. Just don't like the player.

[D.o.s.]

It's not a bad idea -- a real Center on the C's seems like a foreign concept -- but I'm a little to in love with the notion of a high Nets pick to do it.


Maybe. I've gone back and forth like 3274324 times since I started this post.

[bdm860]

I made a thread on this, but seems like a good thread to bring it back up.

Say it is just before the trade deadline.  Lopez is healthy, playing very well, and the Nets are looking like they might make or will just miss the playoffs.  Say the Nets call up Ainge and offer Lopez for their own pick back and Lee (or some combination of non-essential players that get the required salary).  Now you may be thinking why would either team do this, well the Nets do this because without Lopez they know their season will crater and they will get a high pick and Boston does it because Lopez becomes Boston's best player and is easily worth a late lottery pick.  Is that something you would do?

I don't make the trade. I don't think we have the personnel to maximize Lopez, and I don't want to build a team around him.

See I probably would do it (assuming the C's aren't tanking themselves and Lopez is healhy, and our docs have no fears of likely future injuries), and I too don't like the player either.

I don't want to build around Lopez, but I think he might be a worm that help lands a bigger fish, especially if Lopez is an All-Star in '16.  Optimistically, maybe he pushes C's from hovering around .500 to a 50 win pace.  Maybe the C's get to the 2nd round? Hey maybe even ECF with the right match ups.  A lot easier sell to come to the C's with our 50 win team with some playoff success, with our All-Star Center, All Defensive player in Smart, and SMOY contender in Thomas (optimistic outlooks of course).  Plus I'll always have faith Ainge could flip him for something even better.

Though also need to think about other scenarios as well as the long term.  Is Brooklyn shopping him to other teams?  So if the C's don't make this trade, will Brooklyn just move him for some other team's late lotto or mid first round pick?  Then maybe don't make the trade since Brooklyn would get worse and we still have their pick.  How will this trade affect Brooklyn's outlook in '17 and '18?  If it free's up cap room for Brooklyn to sign Durant and Horford, then maybe don't do it, but if you think this will help them be worse in '17 and '18 then go for it.  Just things to think about, as we don't won't to help set Brooklyn up for any success over the next 3 years.

[Moranis]

I made a thread on this, but seems like a good thread to bring it back up.

Say it is just before the trade deadline.  Lopez is healthy, playing very well, and the Nets are looking like they might make or will just miss the playoffs.  Say the Nets call up Ainge and offer Lopez for their own pick back and Lee (or some combination of non-essential players that get the required salary).  Now you may be thinking why would either team do this, well the Nets do this because without Lopez they know their season will crater and they will get a high pick and Boston does it because Lopez becomes Boston's best player and is easily worth a late lottery pick.  Is that something you would do?

I don't make the trade. I don't think we have the personnel to maximize Lopez, and I don't want to build a team around him.

See I probably would do it (assuming the C's aren't tanking themselves and Lopez is healhy, and our docs have no fears of likely future injuries), and I too don't like the player either.

I don't want to build around Lopez, but I think he might be a worm that help lands a bigger fish, especially if Lopez is an All-Star in '16.  Optimistically, maybe he pushes C's from hovering around .500 to a 50 win pace.  Maybe the C's get to the 2nd round? Hey maybe even ECF with the right match ups.  A lot easier sell to come to the C's with our 50 win team with some playoff success, with our All-Star Center, All Defensive player in Smart, and SMOY contender in Thomas (optimistic outlooks of course).  Plus I'll always have faith Ainge could flip him for something even better.

Though also need to think about other scenarios as well as the long term.  Is Brooklyn shopping him to other teams?  So if the C's don't make this trade, will Brooklyn just move him for some other team's late lotto or mid first round pick?  Then maybe don't make the trade since Brooklyn would get worse and we still have their pick.  How will this trade affect Brooklyn's outlook in '17 and '18?  If it free's up cap room for Brooklyn to sign Durant and Horford, then maybe don't do it, but if you think this will help them be worse in '17 and '18 then go for it.  Just things to think about, as we don't won't to help set Brooklyn up for any success over the next 3 years.

Yep, that was the other side of the trade, which I didn't put in here, but was talked about in the thread.  The removal of Lopez for a rookie, makes Brooklyn worse in 17 and 18.  Brooklyn has room for 2 max contracts with Lopez, so I can't see it doing much for free agency for them except him not being on the roster makes it less likely a free agent goes there.

[LarBrd33]

guys this is seriously getting ridiculous. I cant find a single sportsbook that has the nets at over 33 wins. If you really think they will 35-40 games go place a huge bet and rub the money in our face. Otherwise, you kind of just come off like a jerk. If i say I think the Patriots are going to make the playoffs i don't really need to give much of an explanation. Everyone expects and agrees they most likely will. On the opposite end of that, if I said I thought the Jets would make the playoffs i would need a hell of a lot of advanced statistics and reasoning to make an argument that was compelling against all other predictions and statistics. In the case of the nets backers here, you are the jets fans. Every sports site has the Nets bottom of the east. You feel differently, burden is on you. Dont call people homers for agreeing with the general consensus.

THis is year 4 of people expecting the Nets to bottom out.  People have been writing them off since KG and Pierce had a slow start.  Whatever.  There's no incentive for them to be bad.  You're more likely to see Boston change gears and tank than you are to see Brooklyn end up at the bottom of the standings.

Actually, I'd say it's year 2, not year 4.  people expected the addition of KG and PP to put them into contention for the most part.

They may have no incentive to be bad but they can still be bad even if they're trying to win. 

- Their top 5 to close out a game will be Jack, Johnson, Young, Lopez and either Bargnani or Bogdonovic (?).   that's not the worst 5 players that can be put on the floor in the league but that lineup is a defensive sieve.  if the game is close in the final few minutes and they're not playing a top team, they may win a few games down the stretch. not many though

- The rest of the game they'll have to rely on weak bench.  this is when I expect them to get killed in games by teams with better benches or have their starters playing longer minutes against weaker opposition to press the advantage.  Also, should the Nets top 5/6 suffer injury and miss games, they have no quality depth on their bench so the production dropoff will be significant from the starters.

- Also, the rest of the East improved.  Sure, one could argue if Detroit or Charlotte really improved with their offseason moves but IMHO, I think they did somewhat.  Certainly shouldn't be easy marks for the Nets in terms of picking up wins. 

- Nets finished 8th last year and did not improve.  The 7 teams that finished better than them should do so again.  Miami and Indy are getting back top players from injury and made other offseason moves to further improve.  They will finish better than the Nets as well.  That makes the Nets as 10th best tops right there.  NY will be better -- Melo/Afflalo/Lopez isn't all that worse off than the Nets -- could even argue that with Melo being superior to anyone on the Nets, the Knicks could finish better in the end.  Charlotte and Detroit have more overall talent so they could (and I think should) finish better than the Nets.  Orlando has some up-and-coming talent.  I would not be surprised to see them pass the Nets either (tbh, I'm anticipating that to happen).

- can only really say the Philly is certain to finish with a worse record.

Still expect the Brooklyn pick to end up in the 12-17 range.  The majority of arguments made to explain why they will bottom out can also be applied to the Boston Celtics.  "The East got better... their late season success isn't sustainable... lack of talent", etc. 

[bdm860]

Wow, just looked up that other thread (found here), and surprised nobody seemed interested.

Also didn't realize we had so many doctors here at CB 

As Larbrd33 has pounded in our heads throughout this thread, Lopez averaged 20ppg and 9rpg post All-Star break as well as the playoffs.  If he does that through the first half of next season, he'll have been healthy for a year and half, and would have had a decent sample size of that production, and I would have to imagine he'd be an All-Star.  It's not like we're talking about Roy Hibbert level production here either.  If the C's are trying to improve their team at the current time, I can't imagine not making that trade.

Though still not a fan of his game, I hate big men who are poor rebounders, but I do love when they shoot 80%+ from the line!