KO lack of progress - body

[Celtics18]

Also worth noting: I gave you a good starting point for my suspicion of his defensive numbers and you not so subtly railroaded my actual point into a bit of a diatribe lumping me in with the people who say olynyk's stats are inflated because he plays against bench players (never said that) and that I've called him a soft player who can't defend (haven't said that, either).

You're more or less doing the same thing in that last post. I don't think we should get rid of him because he's our token white guy, I think we should get rid of him because he's unlikely to get significantly better than he is right now. In this regard, he's similar to JuJuan Johnson -- although he's a better player than Triple-J.

I wasn't intending for it to be a diatribe against you or anyone else.  I was making some observations about what I think are common misconceptions about Kelly Olynyk, which I find to be often based in little more than his physical appearance.

If you take that as a diatribe or as a slight against you or anyone, I apologize for that. 

As far as your thinking he's not likely to improve, I get that argument.  I actually think it has some validity to it.  After all, he didn't show significant improvement from his first to his second year. 

I still hold out hope that he can improve in a variety of areas, but even if he doesn't, he's already proven to be a valuable NBA player.  He's certainly no superstar, but he has a lot of skills, he does a lot of things well, and to date those things have shown to help his team succeed.

I've tried to outline a lot of those things in this thread.  My intention is not to try to turn this into some kind of p---ing match.  It is to attempt to have a reasonable, intelligent discussion about the strengths and flaws of one of our Celtics. 

[tankcity!]

Idk about this. I thought he looked pretty cut in that video that was posted on the thread.

From all accounts he has been training with the Celtics so I think he is getting in better shape. From his 1st to second year I thought his quickness and lift improved and I wouldn't be surprised if it happened again.

The advanced numbers indicated he was very good last year although the eye test indicates he can  play much better than he did in 2014-2015.

With Kelly I'm nervous that he won't get consistent minutes due to the log jam in the front court and it will hurt his confidence.

Great post. TP

[PhoSita]

Kelly's lack of improvement is not terribly surprising.

He's already 24 years old and he spent 4 years in college. 

I think any improvement that he realizes at this point will come between his ears.

Without any improvement, he can still have a nice long career.  So, not a big deal.  Still, I think it's reason to question again why Danny picked him.  Selecting a guy like Kelly would have made sense when the team was still trying to contend.  Trading up to select a role player without a ton of upside when there were at least a handful of higher risk, higher upside picks on the board just days after you send your team into rebuilding mode, though?  I don't really get that.

[Celtics18]

The one defensive stat that shows KO to be poor is defensive rebound %. He's awful at it. It confirms that he gets pushed around easily. His overall rebounding % last year was embarrassing given his size.

Agreed.  His defensive rebounding percentage last year was pretty poor.  He actually regressed considerably from his rookie season, which was much more respectable in that department.

He definitely needs to get those numbers back up to respectable levels. 

[Celtics18]

Kelly's lack of improvement is not terribly surprising.

He's already 24 years old and he spent 4 years in college. 

I think any improvement that he realizes at this point will come between his ears.

Without any improvement, he can still have a nice long career.  So, not a big deal.  Still, I think it's reason to question again why Danny picked him.  Selecting a guy like Kelly would have made sense when the team was still trying to contend.  Trading up to select a role player without a ton of upside when there were at least a handful of higher risk, higher upside picks on the board just days after you send your team into rebuilding mode, though?  I don't really get that.

I think it's worth pointing out that his career per36 numbers are 16.1 PP36, 8.5 RP36, and 2.8 AP36.
This goes along with some very good advanced plus/minus stats.

It definitely remains to be seen if he can ever be a player who can make himself valuable enough to get 30+ minutes a game. 

It will certainly be a difficult task this coming year with the seeming glut in the front court.

I agree that a big question mark for him is between the ears.  If he can stay confident and focused and keep working on improving during some times that may end up being trying, I think he has the skills to come out of it as a really good pro.

I hope he has the patience, and I hope Danny and Brad have the patience with him. 

Sure, in retrospect, it might have been better to go with Giannis or Gobert in the 2013 draft.  Personally, I had looked at both those guys prior to the draft and was intrigued, but to be honest, they scared me a bit, as I thought their respective bust potentials were at least equally as high as their respective boom potentials.

I'm guessing Danny felt the same way. 

[oldtype]

Amir Johnson seems like a perfect compliment to Kelly in the frontcourt, so maybe that will lead to him making a leap with more playing time this year.

Overall this guy is already a really solid third big, and even if he never improves will probably play 10+ years in the NBA. It's not a bad late-lottery pick and while missing out on long-shot bets like Giannis and Gobert hurts in retrospect, we could have done a lot worse.

[PhoSita]

I think it's worth pointing out that his career per36 numbers are 16.1 PP36, 8.5 RP36, and 2.8 AP36.
This goes along with some very good advanced plus/minus stats.

This is what still gives me some hope with him.  His per-36 numbers have always looked pretty good, and the +/- stats suggest he's helped the team a good deal when he's been on the court.

Ryan Anderson's per-36 numbers look even more impressive, though.  How much is his team really helped by playing enough minutes to approach them?

Kelly will never be a great rebounder.  He'll never be a great post-up or isolation scorer.  He will never be a rim protector.

That's OK.

I think the key to success for him is how much he can maximize all of the extra stuff he brings to the table that somebody like Ryan Anderson does not -- positional defense, passing, dribble-drive, setting screens, and so on. 

There's a universe where Kelly completely maxes out all of that stuff and becomes a 30+ mpg regular who is a significant contributor to a good team.  Are we living in that universe, or the one where he settles in as a Pero Antic / Matt Bonner / Spencer Hawes type guy for the rest of his career?  Time will tell.

[ahonui06]

I think it's worth pointing out that his career per36 numbers are 16.1 PP36, 8.5 RP36, and 2.8 AP36.
This goes along with some very good advanced plus/minus stats.

This is what still gives me some hope with him.  His per-36 numbers have always looked pretty good, and the +/- stats suggest he's helped the team a good deal when he's been on the court.

Ryan Anderson's per-36 numbers look even more impressive, though.  How much is his team really helped by playing enough minutes to approach them?

Kelly will never be a great rebounder.  He'll never be a great post-up or isolation scorer.  He will never be a rim protector.

That's OK.

I think the key to success for him is how much he can maximize all of the extra stuff he brings to the table that somebody like Ryan Anderson does not -- positional defense, passing, dribble-drive, setting screens, and so on. 

There's a universe where Kelly completely maxes out all of that stuff and becomes a 30+ mpg regular who is a significant contributor to a good team.  Are we living in that universe, or the one where he settles in as a Pero Antic / Matt Bonner / Spencer Hawes type guy for the rest of his career?  Time will tell.

I think if Kelly can carve a niche role somewhere between Matt Bonner and Ryan Anderson level that would be a success for Boston, especially considering how weak that draft class was. Boston probably made the best choice available given their draft position.

[slamtheking]

https://instagram.com/p/5qFjNWgcll/

Recent photo at the Olynyk Klynyk camp.   Does not look like his body has improved at all from last season. 

I'm a fan of KO but this upcoming season will be highly critical of his play.  After 2 seasons, you would think one would learn.  He got pushed around the 1st 2 seasons, and really needs to come to camp at the best shape of his life. Especially in the strength department

He comes to training camp with the body we see from his KO  Klynyk camp, and I will be the 1st one to start a thread to trade him.   

I'm sure you would, if for no other reason than to do whatever you can to get your boy Mickey out of Maine and sitting on the C's bench

[PhoSita]

Boston probably made the best choice available given their draft position.

I mean, I think we can say at this point they probably didn't.  Giannis and Gobert were still on the board.  Dieng and Schroder might turn out to be more valuable, too.

Still, that doesn't mean Kelly was a bad pick.  It's amazing how many quality international prospects there were in that draft taken in the middle of the first round or later.

[rollie mass]

did anybody spot him in vegas,practicing shots on one leg obviously a drill for form-kelly has been bloodied last year
 the run to the playoffs and coming back from injury-

[Celtics18]

I think it's worth pointing out that his career per36 numbers are 16.1 PP36, 8.5 RP36, and 2.8 AP36.
This goes along with some very good advanced plus/minus stats.

This is what still gives me some hope with him.  His per-36 numbers have always looked pretty good, and the +/- stats suggest he's helped the team a good deal when he's been on the court.

Ryan Anderson's per-36 numbers look even more impressive, though.  How much is his team really helped by playing enough minutes to approach them?

Kelly will never be a great rebounder.  He'll never be a great post-up or isolation scorer.  He will never be a rim protector.

That's OK.

I think the key to success for him is how much he can maximize all of the extra stuff he brings to the table that somebody like Ryan Anderson does not -- positional defense, passing, dribble-drive, setting screens, and so on. 

There's a universe where Kelly completely maxes out all of that stuff and becomes a 30+ mpg regular who is a significant contributor to a good team.  Are we living in that universe, or the one where he settles in as a Pero Antic / Matt Bonner / Spencer Hawes type guy for the rest of his career?  Time will tell.

Hoping for the former. 

Otherwise, I don't see much to disagree with you on there.  Nice post. 

[Celtics18]

Boston probably made the best choice available given their draft position.

I mean, I think we can say at this point they probably didn't.  Giannis and Gobert were still on the board.  Dieng and Schroder might turn out to be more valuable, too.

Still, that doesn't mean Kelly was a bad pick.  It's amazing how many quality international prospects there were in that draft taken in the middle of the first round or later.

Again, I totally understand passing on all three of those internationals.  Although, I loved Schroder, and would have gladly seen Danny take him if it weren't for the fact that we already had Rondo, they were huge question marks.

In my opinion, Kelly is and will continue to be a more valuable player than Gorgui Dieng.

All that said, the 2013 draft class is a big favorite of mine.  I love the middle to late first round internationals flavor of that draft, I love Kelly, I love Nerlens.  I root for it because it's the underdog draft that precedes the super hyped 2014 draft. 

And, I love that Cleveland took Anthony Bennett first.  Buttheads.

[ahonui06]

Boston probably made the best choice available given their draft position.

I mean, I think we can say at this point they probably didn't.  Giannis and Gobert were still on the board.  Dieng and Schroder might turn out to be more valuable, too.

Still, that doesn't mean Kelly was a bad pick.  It's amazing how many quality international prospects there were in that draft taken in the middle of the first round or later.

Wow. Didn't realize Giannis and Gobert were part of that draft. Seems like Kelly has been in the league longer for some reason.

[Celtics18]

I think it's worth pointing out that his career per36 numbers are 16.1 PP36, 8.5 RP36, and 2.8 AP36.
This goes along with some very good advanced plus/minus stats.

This is what still gives me some hope with him.  His per-36 numbers have always looked pretty good, and the +/- stats suggest he's helped the team a good deal when he's been on the court.

Ryan Anderson's per-36 numbers look even more impressive, though.  How much is his team really helped by playing enough minutes to approach them?

Kelly will never be a great rebounder.  He'll never be a great post-up or isolation scorer.  He will never be a rim protector.

That's OK.

I think the key to success for him is how much he can maximize all of the extra stuff he brings to the table that somebody like Ryan Anderson does not -- positional defense, passing, dribble-drive, setting screens, and so on. 

There's a universe where Kelly completely maxes out all of that stuff and becomes a 30+ mpg regular who is a significant contributor to a good team.  Are we living in that universe, or the one where he settles in as a Pero Antic / Matt Bonner / Spencer Hawes type guy for the rest of his career?  Time will tell.

I think if Kelly can carve a niche role somewhere between Matt Bonner and Ryan Anderson level that would be a success for Boston, especially considering how weak that draft class was. Boston probably made the best choice available given their draft position.

Doesn't seem to me like that draft class was weak at all.  I think it's already proving to be a stronger class than people were expecting.