The Curse of the Summer of '07

[celticsclay]

Even if Lopez is healthy, I'm curious which 10+ teams you think the Nets will win more games than?  I could see Denver, NY, Philly doing worse - although that's not even a guarantee.  MAYBE the Lakers, Minnesota, or Portland.

Jarret Jack, Bojan Bogdanovic, Joe Johnson, Thaddeus Young, Brook Lopez


I want you to go and figure out which teams currently project to have a worse starting lineup.

My guess is that there will be more than 10.

They have 3 starting caliber NBA players Lopez, Johnson and Young. Jack and Bogdanovic are bench guys. However, the bigger problem that you really just don't seem to get is that they have absolutely no bench at all. It would be one thing if they had a team like the Celtics were they had 5 players coming off the bench as good (or better) than Jack and Bog. I mean hell just compare a team like Orlando to them

Peyton
Oladipo
Harris
Gordon
Vucevic

That is probably better than the nets group and they actually have a few upside bench guys. They have the 6th pick in the draft instead of the 23rd (Mario vs RHJ). They have Frye instead of Barg. Plus all those guys are young and getting better, where Johnson and Jack are in decline.
This is just one comparison from one of the worst teams in the league last year that didn't make any moves.

[celticsclay]

Not saying there is a very significant chance this pick is bottom 5 seems to strike me as unwarranted pessimism. In that vein, I don't understand what teams you think will finish worse than the nets in the East at this point besides Philly. If that is the case we get the 5th pick in the draft or better. That is a major asset and probably the best asset we have had in 5 years.

There's a certain incongruity in your insistence upon this point that I overlooked Cory Jefferson no longer being on the team when your underlying point is that he sucks anyway. 

Anyway, I'll refer you to what I've written above in order to further explain my position.  Yes, they lack depth, and no, they're probably not going to be very good.  Things could go off the rails if Brook suffers another ankle injury.

Still, the big thing for me is that they still have a veteran core that's actually pretty decent (at least as good as our best 3 or 4 players), and at the end of the day it's not that hard to be mediocre in this horrible conference.


I'm disappointed that this thread has become about the Nets, but I guess it makes sense seeing as they are the shining beacon of hope that many people use to justify their trust in the middle of the road approach the Celts are taking.  If those Nets pick turn into top 5-10 picks, it won't matter where the Celts end up in the draft.


Last week, if I recall correctly, I posted a tiered ranking of the teams in the NBA as things stand right now, and the Nets occupied the second to last tier with about a dozen other teams including the Celtics.

Like the Celtics, I think the Nets could end up with a record anywhere between 15th and 25th.  I guess I'm just not going to get my hopes up on a team in the East with no incentive to truly stink to end up on the lower end of that spectrum. 

If you want to call that willful pessimism, go right ahead.

Alright well fair points PhoSita, and TP for the discourse. I place more value on the depth than the average NBA fan, so sometime it means I have very different perceptions of how good or bad a team will be because of it. I honestly think the best they could do in the East is 4th worst barring injuries or further moves. However, you don't think that and have made it clear you are not just taking that stance to be negative. So fair enough.

[PhoSita]

Alright well fair points PhoSita, and TP for the discourse. I place more value on the depth than the average NBA fan, so sometime it means I have very different perceptions of how good or bad a team will be because of it. I honestly think the best they could do in the East is 4th worst barring injuries or further moves. However, you don't think that and have made it clear you are not just taking that stance to be negative. So fair enough.

I appreciate you calling me out on my mistake, taking a stand, and pushing me on the point.  Good discussion requires that.

[Who]

I was higher on the Nets 2 weeks ago.

They had just agreed to re-sign Thad Young and Brook Lopez. It looked like they were willing to spend to keep the team together. Not tear it down. They had a three PG platoon of Deron, J.Jack and S.Blake.  They still had Bogdanovic and JJ. Teletovic looked like he was returning. They had a great pickup in the draft with RHJ (I am high on him). All they needed was to sign a backup center in free agency and they would have had a solid 9/10 man rotation to work with.

I really liked the mix of that group. I thought they had built something late last season. They had found a combination that worked well together. Players were buying in. They were more unselfish. More team orientated. Brook Lopez was actually trying on defense and on the backboards for the first time in a long time. Things were really coming together for them.

And I thought RHJ was perfect to continue along that road and help push their defense up another notch -- which sounds a lot for a rookie but look at how physically slow those other perimeter players are for Nets and how many of them are average to below average defenders. It is a sorry picture. I think even a rookie who is a solid (bit above average defensively) and brings real speed and athleticism to the picture can make a good impact with that group.

Since then, they have (1) dumped Deron Williams (2) dumped Steve Blake (3) withdrawn QO to Mirza Teletovic and look to have parted ways with him (4) refused to sign a backup center who can provide interior while Brook Lopez rests.

.... those are a lot of wins that have walked out the door.

And signed (a) Shane Larkin as backup PG who has been absolutely terrible his first two years in the league. Phil Pressey has outplayed him. That is how bad he has been. (b) Andrea Bargnani as backup PF/C - who thinks defense & rebounding is beneath a player of his stature - and is a bad fit on this specific roster because he does not combine well with B.Lopez and not so good with Thad Young either ... Two players who will not only not help this team .. but have shown themselves to be players who actually make their teams worse and lose games for their teams. Players who hurt their teams and make life harder for the players around them.

... more wins rolling out that door.

I think Brooklyn has changed course from a solid playoff team that could win 45 games to a team that fallen to 27-33 win range. I think they will be in the 4th-8th worst in the league type range (if they stay healthy). And that is with Brook Lopez and injury proneness ... which could plummet them down into the bottom 3.

This draft pick suddenly looks very interesting again after looking only like a mid first rounder just two weeks ago. It is amazing how much damage they have done to their team in a short space of time.

Note: I agree with PhoSita that their starting lineup is still decent but that bench is one of the worst in the league. That is going to be a major drag on that group. So say you rate that starting lineup 18-20th in the league and then the bench one of the worst in the league ... dropping Brooklyn back say 5 or so places in the standings (W-L record) from 18th-20th to 23rd-25th in the league.

[PhoSita]

It is amazing how much damage they have done to their team in a short space of time.

Note: I agree with PhoSita that their starting lineup is still decent but that bench is one of the worst in the league. That is going to be a major drag on that group. So say you rate that starting lineup 18-20th in the league and then the bench one of the worst in the league ... dropping Brooklyn back say 5 or so places in the standings (W-L record) from 18th-20th to 23rd-25th in the league.

You're right that they have taken a pronounced step back.

Part of that, from what I understand, was luxury tax related.  I wonder if there are more moves to come, though.

Since they have no reason to intentionally get worse this season, it stands to reason there may still be moves coming that provide some more depth behind their decent starting lineup.

Otherwise, they look like a team with two heads, one that thinks they own their own pick and need to tank this season, and another that wanted to re-sign Thad Young and Brook Lopez to big contracts because it thinks they can be a playoff team this year.

[celticsclay]

It is amazing how much damage they have done to their team in a short space of time.

Note: I agree with PhoSita that their starting lineup is still decent but that bench is one of the worst in the league. That is going to be a major drag on that group. So say you rate that starting lineup 18-20th in the league and then the bench one of the worst in the league ... dropping Brooklyn back say 5 or so places in the standings (W-L record) from 18th-20th to 23rd-25th in the league.

You're right that they have taken a pronounced step back.

Part of that, from what I understand, was luxury tax related.  I wonder if there are more moves to come, though.

Since they have no reason to intentionally get worse this season, it stands to reason there may still be moves coming that provide some more depth behind their decent starting lineup.

Otherwise, they look like a team with two heads, one that thinks they own their own pick and need to tank this season, and another that wanted to re-sign Thad Young and Brook Lopez to big contracts because it thinks they can be a playoff team this year.

This is another really interesting point. I do think that certain people in management, probably mainly King, are highly motivated to avoid giving the Celtics a top 5 pick for one season of KG and Pierce (to say nothing of the other picks). If get a top 3-5 pick is really puts a lot of egg on their faces and pumps that trade into the stratosphere of Tractor Traylor for Dirk and other fabled fails.

However, the second head that is referenced here, is that their owner wants to sell the team. While he can probably make a killing either way, it seems like the traditional moves before sale for franchises are to strip down their long term liability in contracts. Also having young talented players under team control makes a team much more appealing. Purely from ownerships perspective for selling the team, it would be ideal if the Nets could get a half decent prospect for Joe Johnson and give RHJ, new asset, Larkin, Markel Brown and anyone else under 25 tons of minutes in hopes of discovering a new star.

Ego aside, at the end of the day it really doesn't impact the Nets as a team if they give us the 15th pick or the 4th pick because it is a sunk cost. Ultimately, that is why I would expect them to make more moves for the second reason as the season progresses and why we have seen them jettison somewhat established NBA players in anderson, teletovic, blake and plumlee.

[PhoSita]

Ego aside, at the end of the day it really doesn't impact the Nets as a team if they give us the 15th pick or the 4th pick because it is a sunk cost. Ultimately, that is why I would expect them to make more moves for the second reason as the season progresses and why we have seen them jettison somewhat established NBA players in anderson, teletovic, blake and plumlee.

You make a good point here.

Logically, one would think that if the Nets have no incentive to be bad, they'd try to be as good as possible.

But, if the owner cares more about selling the team than what the team actually does this year, he may be content to do whatever it takes to make that happen even if it hurts the product on the floor.  The owner is no longer thinking long term in that scenario, so the thought of surrending a top 10 pick to the Celts doesn't make a difference.

[Moranis]

The 2009 Minnesota pick wouldn't have been a strong asset if Garnett was still on the team.  Probably mid-teens to low 20's.  The trade really was all about Al Jefferson.  The rest was mostly just throw in. 

I have always wondered if Boston didn't make the KG trade, if it would have been able to beat out the Lakers for Pau without giving up Jefferson.  While Boston probably doesn't win the 2008 title, the window would have been a lot longer with Al Jeff and Pau down low, PP, RA, and RR, which of course also sends Perk to the bench with Davis, Allen, etc. 

[chambers]

Great post. TP.
This offseason has had me thinking the same thing.
Luckily our GM is patient and is waiting for an opportunity to add some 2007 offseason acquisition level talent.

[PhoSita]

The 2009 Minnesota pick wouldn't have been a strong asset if Garnett was still on the team.  Probably mid-teens to low 20's.  The trade really was all about Al Jefferson.  The rest was mostly just throw in. 

I don't really get your point here.

The T-Wolves were looking to trade Garnett.  That being the case, they could anticipate being mediocre to really, really bad in the following years (i.e. while they rebuilt).

So, getting back one of the 1st rounders that you owe to another team before heading into rebuilding sounds like kind of a big deal.

[Forza Juventus]

We should focus on star players on small market (cheap) teams. If Indiana struggles maybe Paul George will want out. I don't know if we have enough to trade for him but we should wait out the year, see how we do, see how Indiana does and see how our other picks turn out. If our players improve, Indiana does bad and our other picks turn out good maybe we could put together a good offer. It's a long shot but it's worth watching. Sacramento is not a cheap team but we should also watch the Cousins situation. We won't be able to even make a decent offer unless we get luck on draft night a year from now.

[Celtics18]

It seems to me, in fact, that the summer of '07 has fundamentally altered the way many Celts fans now look at the concept of rebuilding, to the point where perhaps there is a distinct disconnect with reality.

In short, I think that having experienced the summer of '07 makes many people truly believe that Danny Ainge can and indeed will most assuredly find a way to trade a pile of nothing for a couple of game-changing superstars who will vault us back among the elite, where the Celtics belong.

I don't think many fans believe that the Celtics will or should be able to trade a bunch of mediocre assets for established game-changing superstars. 

[PhoSita]

It seems to me, in fact, that the summer of '07 has fundamentally altered the way many Celts fans now look at the concept of rebuilding, to the point where perhaps there is a distinct disconnect with reality.

In short, I think that having experienced the summer of '07 makes many people truly believe that Danny Ainge can and indeed will most assuredly find a way to trade a pile of nothing for a couple of game-changing superstars who will vault us back among the elite, where the Celtics belong.

I don't think many fans believe that the Celtics will or should be able to trade a bunch of mediocre assets for established game-changing superstars.

I'm guessing you're coming at this from the "our assets aren't mediocre" angle.

[PhoSita]

We should focus on star players on small market (cheap) teams.

I agree, but of course the issue is that if we only get one of them, we risk getting burned in the same way the small market team worries about getting burned: the star goes and signs with another team that offers a bigger, flashier market, a more talented core, or both.

We can't simply use the history of the franchise and the depth of the roster in role players to justify why we believe the stars we acquire will want to stay here.  Recent history -- and long term history, to boot -- suggests that star players like playing with other stars, and are willing to go to smaller markets or teams with less majestic histories to do it.

[Celtics18]

It seems to me, in fact, that the summer of '07 has fundamentally altered the way many Celts fans now look at the concept of rebuilding, to the point where perhaps there is a distinct disconnect with reality.

In short, I think that having experienced the summer of '07 makes many people truly believe that Danny Ainge can and indeed will most assuredly find a way to trade a pile of nothing for a couple of game-changing superstars who will vault us back among the elite, where the Celtics belong.

I don't think many fans believe that the Celtics will or should be able to trade a bunch of mediocre assets for established game-changing superstars.

I'm guessing you're coming at this from the "our assets aren't mediocre" angle.

No.  That's not my angle. 

I think that currently the talent level on our team is fairly mediocre with some room for improvement.

I've certainly never said I expect Danny to make a blockbuster move to vault us back into contention within the next year or two.