The summer of 07 brought sweeping change to the Celtics franchise, a rushing tide that carried them back to the top of the league, a place many beleaguered Celtics fans feared they might never reach again, despite having spent decades at the top in the not so distant past.
Ultimately, the trades made in the summer of 07 by daring, evil genius GM Danny Ainge brought a championship, and at least 3 or 4 years of legitimate contention, to Boston.
Now that the Celts are mired in the rebuild following that period of contention, however, the summer of '07 casts a shadow over everything that the franchise does. It seems to me, in fact, that the summer of '07 has fundamentally altered the way many Celts fans now look at the concept of rebuilding, to the point where perhaps there is a distinct disconnect with reality.
In short, I think that having experienced the summer of '07 makes many people truly believe that Danny Ainge can and indeed
will most assuredly find a way to trade a pile of nothing for a couple of game-changing superstars who will vault us back among the elite, where the Celtics belong.
There are a couple of problems with that.
First, as our overlord and blogger buddy Jeff Clark so effectively explored on the front page, there has to be somebody available.
http://www.celticsblog.com/2015/7/14/8949721/what-big-names-could-the-celtics-be-targetingLook, I get the plan that Danny has laid out. I even support it to a large extent. But I'm having a very hard time picturing how we're going to follow through on it when there's no clear target to aim for.
The next problem is, well . . . the KG and Allen trades were not so MacGyver-ish as many around here seem to want to make them out to be.
Yes, the 2006-2007 squad stunk. If there was much talent on that team, it certainly didn't come together. Anybody trading with the Celts had to know they weren't getting any amazing established pieces in return.
Still, let's refresh our memories, shall we?
To get Garnett, the Celtics traded the following:
Big Al - Potential star prospect; taken straight out of high school in the mid-1st back in 2004
Gerald Green - Seen as a potential high level scorer; also taken straight out of high school in the mid 1st in 2005
Telfair - Former lottery pick acquired with the #6 pick in 2006
Ratliff - Big expiring contract, acquired in the same deal as Telfair
Gomes - 2nd round pick
2009 Celts pick - Likely to fall in the mid to late 1st given the acquisition of Garnett and Allen
2009 Minny pick - Likely high to mid 1st round depending on how Big Al worked out for the Wolves. Wolves could control their own destiny on this one.
Now, recall also that in order to get Garnett to agree to be traded to Boston and subsequently sign an extension there, the Celts had to first acquire Ray Allen. That meant trading the #5 pick in the 2007 draft, which was considered a strong draft.
Garnett probably would not have agreed to come to Boston with just Ray Allen in tow, however. Paul Pierce was already in B-Town, which meant a lot.
Paul Pierce, as we all know, was taken #10 in 1998.
So, you may notice the following:
- The Celts had to land in the top 10 of the draft three times over a decade to acquire the assets that made this scenario possible. That meant winning only 36 games in 1998, only 33 games in 2006, and a paltry 15 games in 2007. They tanked hard in 2007.
- Getting high upside prospects straight out of high school was a big part of this deal. Big Al and Gerald Green were the meat of the trade package.
- Taking advantage of a good opportunity was a major aspect. Not only was Danny Ainge familiar with Wolves GM Kevin McHale, which surely mattered, but the Celts also owned one of the Wolves' future picks. If they were to head into rebuilding, surely it mattered a lot that they would get back the rights to their own pick.
Let's take it back to the present day.
Finding high upside prospects in the middle of the first round is difficult, but it's not impossible. These days, the straight-out-of-high-school gambles come from overseas (e.g. Exum, Giannis, Schroder, etc.).
That said, presently the Celts lack any young prospects with the kind of tantalizing potential that Big Al had. Even Gerald Green circa '07 probably had more trade value than a lot of the Celts' vaunted youth brigade, solely on athleticism and seeming upside.
As for draft picks, the Celts have plenty. They can almost certainly match or exceed the pick value that went into the Garnett trade, but they can't now and probably won't in the future be able to match the value of the #5 pick that went into the Allen trade, unless the Nets unexpectedly bottom out.
The opportunity thing is big. Again, there has to be a star available. And furthermore, Danny has to have some leverage to allow him to seal a deal ahead of the many other GMs who will jump on the same opportunities. Danny isn't the only smart guy at the table -- something we forget around here frequently.
The present day equivalent of the Garnett trade would be trading a package including Dallas's own pick for Dirk Nowitzki, if Dirk were about 7 years younger. That's obviously not going to happen. So who else is Danny gonna get the chance to put over a barrel?
My bottom line is this: The Garnett & Allen trades were both the result of a very specific and fortuitous set of circumstances coming together at the right time and also the culmination of a decade of rebuilding that included at least three borderline or all-out losing seasons.
Expecting a repeat performance from Danny every summer when he clearly doesn't have the ammunition or the opportunity is foolhardy. We're only setting ourselves up for disappointment.
Furthermore, we're solidifying unrealistic notions about how a rebuild can and should work. Rebuilds take a long time, as a general rule. Typically, teams have to lose a lot, over multiple seasons, before they can get together the resources to become good again. That is just the way it works in this league, for better or for worse.
Topic: The Curse of the Summer of '07 (Read 8794 times)