Ainge's Offer for the 9th Pick

[MBunge]

ESPN is saying Danny offered SIX picks, including 4 first rounders in an offer to hornets for #9.

If Charlotte turned down that to slide down 7 spots...MJ is an idiot.

Which would you rather have:

Rookie Paul Pierce

or

#16 pick
#28 pick
#12-20 pick next year
Lottery protected pick next year or multiple second round picks

?


Nobody here with a logical brain would pass on the Pierce option.  Everyone belittling Charlotte is being a hypocrite, because they wouldn't have made the trade if they were in the position to make that pick and take Winslow/"Pierce".

But Charlotte drafted Frank

So?  Why do people keep posting that as if it's meaningful?  It's not.

How can you not understand an extraordinarily obvious point?  Winslow > Kaminsky.  If Charlotte took Winslow, you could argue for his supposedly great upside.  Even the people who like Kaminsky don't think he has much upside.

Mike

I'm not the one failing to grasp the point.  You are. Your argument is aimed at a specific player, and your opinion of that player is clearly different from the opinion Charlotte has of him.

Your opinion of the specific player is not relevant.  Charlotte's opinion of the player is the only one that matters.

Oh, for pity's sake just stop embarrassing yourself.  Charlotte's OPINION is irrelevant.  If opinions mattered than no one would ever be wrong about anything.

Do you think Kaminsky is better than Winslow?  Do you think when/if Charlotte trades Kaminsky, they'll get one-fourth as much as what Ainged offered?  If Ainge had given away all those picks for #9 and then picked Kaminsky, would you be here defending Ainge's OPINION?

Mike

[crimson_stallion]

It's been enlightening to watch people making every ridiculous argument in the world in a lame attempt to turn this around on Charlotte.  Every argument has been clearly wrong, yet people continue to stick by them.  Stick by yours, too.  It's another one for the logbook.

Yes because your argument is right...oh wait, you haven't actually MADE an argument.

You've said absolutely nothing to justify why Charlotte is better off with taking Kaminsky at #9 then they would be taking Boston's offer (which reportedly included up to 6 draft picks, including Brooklyn's 2016 unprotected pick).

If you're going to try to use the argument that "it's not about the player chosen, it's about who was still available at #9" that that is a completely invalid argument because we are talking about whether Charlotte were wise for making the decision they made...and their decision was to stay at #8 and draft Kiminsky.

So even If you try to argue that being in #9 puts them in a better position, hence making it more valuable to them...that doesn't change the fact that they are still idiots because the chose Kaminsky over Winslow.

It also doesn't change the fact that, as past history tells us, usually only about 5 or 5 of the guys taken in the top 10 (of any draft) ever actually end up being good players.  At least 4 or 5 of those guys taken in the to 10 usually end up nobodies who struggle to earn a meaningful role over their careers.

So hoping to get a really good player at say, #9, is a huge gamble, just like it is later in the draft.  Your odds may be a little better, but it's still a HUGE gamble, and you're still more likely to draft a bust than a beast.  At the end of the day you just have to hope your scouts are better at picking players than the opponent scouts, and you see something in a guy that they don't - certain teams (like San Antonio and Boston) seem to be better at this than most. 

So if you're going to take a huge gamble anyway, and you're giving up a ton of assets just to make that huge gamble, is it actually WORTH taking that gamble?

Ultimately you could just keep all assets / picks and then gamble four or 5 or 6 times instead of gambling just once...and increase your chances of picking up a good player as a result.

Contrary to what you seem to think, you probably have a better probability of getting a good player from taking 6 gambles with 6 mediocre picks, then you do from taking one gamble with one #9 pick.

[crimson_stallion]

Imagine if the guy we take at #9 ends up Thomas Robinson, Rozier ends up being the next Eric Bledsoe, and Brooklyn finishes bottom 5?  Ainge looks like he should be fired on the spot.

Well, if that happened, the Celts would be bad, and get another high pick.

This rebuilding thing, it requires taking gambles.

Then we'd take another gamble, get another Thomas Robinson, and we end up becoming the next Minnesota Timberwolves or Charlotte Bobcats and sucking completely for the next 5 years with nothing to show for it.

The Knicks have Melo, the Lakers have Kobe.  They will continue to bring fans in to games even if their draft picks end up crap.

Boston has a bunch of role players - they need a star, and they need one yesterday.  They can't afford to take gamble after gamble the way teams like the Wolves can.  Unless you're consistently getting picks in the top 3, your chance of picking up franchise-changing players in the draft is small.

Boston has a better chance by racking up large quantities of picks, rolling the dice on all of them, see what happens.  If two of those guys end up decent players (in the Sully/Olynyk mould) and the other two end up complete garbage, then at the very least you have two young prospects who give you some form of solid trade value.  If you do that two years in a row, then after the second year you probably have at least 3 or 4 such players.  You then have some hope that you can use those guys in trades, along with other assets, to trade for a future star or a veteran who can help you win.

If you invest everything you have in one top 10 pick, and that guy busts, then you have nothing.  Nobody is offering ANYTHING for Thomas Robinson.  He's got not no value of any kind on the market. 

The Lakers are probably actually LUCKY that Randle got injured last year, because nobody's seen him play so he still has some trade value on intrigue alone.  Once he plays and everybody realises he's garbage, he'll be worth even less than Thomas Robinson - if they block a Cousins trade because they don't want to give up Randle they are total morons.

The ONLY way to build through the draft is to be bad enough to be able to get top 4 picks every year for about 3 or 4 years running.  That way the odds even out, and you're likely to end up with one or two really good players at worst, and 3 or 4 good players at best.  But to do that you need to be a GM for an organisation who doesn't care about losing horrendously for 4 years running (like Philly) - Boston ownership likely wouldn't accept that as a viable option.

So if you're stuck between choosing one guy in the 5-12 range each year for the next three  years...or picking 4 guys later in the draft every year for the next three years...then both scenarios probably give you a similar chance of getting the type of player you are after.

As such, why bother doing the trade?  May as well stay where you are. 

[vjcsmoke]

Charlotte passed up a package of 4 #1 picks and 2 #2 picks to take Frank Kaminsky.  Well I can't blame Danny for stopping there once that motherlode of picks was offered.  MJ is incredibly idiotic to pass up that many picks to draft Kaminsky, a guy who projects as an average starting center at best.

Now that I know the details, well it looks like fate was just not on our side in the draft.  It almost never is as of late.

[Casperian]

This rebuilding thing, it requires taking gambles.

True, and 95% of the discussion on this subject is effectively whether or not, and to which degree, you agree with the gambles our FO ultimately takes.

What I find ridiculous, however, is the entitlement among certain parts of the fanbase, as if the FO somehow "owes" us a superstar.
If it were that easy to acquire a star player, rebuilding wouldn't exist.

It's been only 2 years since we traded Pierce and KG. From the length of Gerald Wallace's contract, to the crown jewels among our assets, the BRK picks, which only just start to become relevant, it should be obvious that the real fun hasn't even begun, yet. We're still very much right on schedule.
Besides, the FO did try to accelerate the process when they made a move for Kevin Love. It didn't work out, it happens. No matter how I look at it, I don't see any basis for the majority of complaints on this board.

[Birdman]

I wanted Winslow but Way too much to give up...glad Jordan hung up the phone

[vjcsmoke]

We have bingo!! TP

MJ is an idiot because

1) He felt Kaminsky was more valuable than 6 draft picks, 4 of them 1st rounders
2) He felt that Kaminsky was more valuable than Winslow.
3) We have seen this bad drafting over and over again from MJ.  Kwame Brown at #1 anybody?
4) Why do you draft Kaminsky in the top 10 and pass on Winslow when you just drafted Cody Zeller #4 overall in 2013 and Noah Vonleh #9 overall in 2014??  Sorry MJ, Three Wrongs don't make a Right!!

Charlotte knew Winslow was on the board, but they still Chose Kaminsky - obviously believing he's more valuable to them.

So if Charlotte chose Kaminsky over Winslow, and chose Kaminsky over Boston's trade offer, then Charlotte obviously felt that Kaminsky was more valuable than both Winslow AND Boston's trade offer

Hence Charlotte are idiots.