Ainge's Offer for the 9th Pick

[Ilikesports17]

ESPN is saying Danny offered SIX picks, including 4 first rounders in an offer to hornets for #9.

If Charlotte turned down that to slide down 7 spots...MJ is an idiot.

Which would you rather have:

Rookie Paul Pierce

or

#16 pick
#28 pick
#12-20 pick next year
Lottery protected pick next year or multiple second round picks

?


Nobody here with a logical brain would pass on the Pierce option.  Everyone belittling Charlotte is being a hypocrite, because they wouldn't have made the trade if they were in the position to make that pick and take Winslow/"Pierce".

No they arent because there is about a 1 in 20 chance Winslow is as good as Pierce.

Winslow fell because he lacked superstar potential(speculation on my part) He was the "surest thing in the draft"

I know you put "rookie paul pierce" but that only works that way because Paul Pierce ended up a hall-of-famer.

Would you do that move for "rookie Noah Vonleh" cus I sure would. How about rookie Ben McLemore?

[PhoSita]

It's only purgatory if you don't have flexibility. Do people even know what kind of draft picks Anige was offering?

The reports have stated it was as many as 6 picks between this draft and the next.

My guess --

2015: #16, #28, #33, #45
2016: Minnesota pick (could be 1 pick in the first or 2 picks in the second round)

That's as many as six picks.  Maybe one of the 2015 seconds was swapped out for a 2016 1st, either from Dallas or Brooklyn.

I'm guessing Ainge was very keen on avoiding offering any of the Celtics' own future picks before 2019, and also avoided offering the pick-swap right with the Nets in 2017, or the Nets' 2018 pick.

I would be interested to know if he was willing to include any of the Celtics players other than Smart.  If he balked at including Bradley or Sullinger along with all of the picks, that would be frustrating.

[PhoSita]

Would you do that move for "rookie Noah Vonleh" cus I sure would. How about rookie Ben McLemore?

You can't define the value like that, though.  The Celtics were willing to trade up because they thought there was at least one really good player still left at 9.  The Hornets were unwilling to trade out because they thought so, too.

The fact that other players taken in the top 10 in the past have turned out to be totally underwhelming is irrelevant.

Both teams involved in the discussions were confident that they could use that pick on a player with the potential to be really good.

[JSD]

Does anyone believe that Ainge offered a Brooklyn pick in this deal? If so, you're mental.

[Ilikesports17]

Would you do that move for "rookie Noah Vonleh" cus I sure would. How about rookie Ben McLemore?

You can't define the value like that, though.  The Celtics were willing to trade up because they thought there was at least one really good player still left at 9.  The Hornets were unwilling to trade out because they thought so, too.

The fact that other players taken in the top 10 in the past have turned out to be totally underwhelming is irrelevant.

Both teams involved in the discussions were confident that they could use that pick on a player with the potential to be really good.

I used those examples in reaction to rookie paul pierce being used. Vonleh and McLemore like Pierce were highly touted prospects who dropped. I listed them because I thought the use of paul Pierce was very unfair as Pierce is a future hall-of-famer. All 3 comparisons are unfair.

[Scintan]

ESPN is saying Danny offered SIX picks, including 4 first rounders in an offer to hornets for #9.

If Charlotte turned down that to slide down 7 spots...MJ is an idiot.

Which would you rather have:

Rookie Paul Pierce

or

#16 pick
#28 pick
#12-20 pick next year
Lottery protected pick next year or multiple second round picks

?


Nobody here with a logical brain would pass on the Pierce option.  Everyone belittling Charlotte is being a hypocrite, because they wouldn't have made the trade if they were in the position to make that pick and take Winslow/"Pierce".

But Charlotte drafted Frank

So?  Why do people keep posting that as if it's meaningful?  It's not.  Charlotte loved Frank, just as Ainge loved Winslow.  That's what matters.  I know you guys want to defend Ainge, but that defense cuts no ice.

The reality is that the only picks the Celtics have that are really of value are the Brooklyn picks, and if you only offer them as protected picks, they lost that value.

[JoeyAinge]

ESPN is saying Danny offered SIX picks, including 4 first rounders in an offer to hornets for #9.

If Charlotte turned down that to slide down 7 spots...MJ is an idiot.

Which would you rather have:

Rookie Paul Pierce

or

#16 pick
#28 pick
#12-20 pick next year
Lottery protected pick next year or multiple second round picks

?


Nobody here with a logical brain would pass on the Pierce option.  Everyone belittling Charlotte is being a hypocrite, because they wouldn't have made the trade if they were in the position to make that pick and take Winslow/"Pierce".

But Charlotte drafted Frank

So?  Why do people keep posting that as if it's meaningful?  It's not.  Charlotte loved Frank, just as Ainge loved Winslow.  That's what matters.  I know you guys want to defend Ainge, but that defense cuts no ice.

The reality is that the only picks the Patriots have that are really of value are the Brooklyn picks, and if you only offer them as protected picks, they lost that value.

Patriots have Brooklyn draft picks
Brooklyn has a NFL franchise

[BlackCeltic]

I dont care about this 9th pic fiasco. I want to see James Young get some burn anyhow.

[crimson_stallion]

I imagine Charlotte was holding out for one of the Brooklyn picks.

I would have offered #16, BRK's 2016 pick, and Bradley.

Charlotte are absolutely dreaming if they even THOUGHT about that.

We got Rozier at #16 who has a ton of upside, and I honestly feel there's a chance he could become a better player than anyone who was available at #9 - not guaranteed of course, but there's a chance.

Brookyn's pick could be top 5, and is highly likely to be top 10.  They have already lost Thaddeus Young (who has chosen to opt out) and reports are that Brook Lopez is doing the same.  That nets team without Young and Lopez (given the current state of Deron and JJ) is a bottom 5 team.

Especially with  the Knicks, Lakers and Timberwolves all likely to improve this off season - both are hot free agent destinations who just snatched valuable picks.  Even the 76ers may show improvement with their pick this year, plus Embiid hopefully returning from injury and the development of Noel.

Brooklyn has the potential to be bad - really bad.  Bottom 3 bad.

Then on top of that, Bradley is a two way player who averages around 15 PPG while being one of the better defensive guards in the NBA. 

To be honest, that trade offer would have been hard to swallow even for atop 3 pick - making that trade for #9 has the potential to have 'laughing stock' status a year from now.

Imagine if the guy we take at #9 ends up Thomas Robinson, Rozier ends up being the next Eric Bledsoe, and Brooklyn finishes bottom 5?  Ainge looks like he should be fired on the spot.

But if we don't do the deal and the guy we would have taken at #9 ends up a star, then we can still look back and say "well, we made the right decision based on what we knew at the time". 

[crimson_stallion]

Which would you rather have:

Rookie Paul Pierce

or

#16 pick
#28 pick
#12-20 pick next year
Lottery protected pick next year or multiple second round picks

?


Nobody here with a logical brain would pass on the Pierce option.  Everyone belittling Charlotte is being a hypocrite, because they wouldn't have made the trade if they were in the position to make that pick and take Winslow/"Pierce".

In 2010:

* Al-Fariq Aminu was taken 8th overall pick
* Eric Bledsoe was 18th overall
* Greivis Vasquez was taken 28th overall
* Hassan Whiteside was taken 33rd overall
* Lance Stephenson was taken 40th overall

Based on your mentality, if you were the GM back in 2010 you'd happily trade the 18th, 28th, 33rd and 40th picks to the clippers in return for the #8 pick.

In hindsight, who would you rather have now?  Would you rather have JUST Al-Fariq Aminu...or would you rather have Eric Bledsoe, Greivis Vasquez, Hassan Whiteside and Lance Stephenson?

Yes, you have three guards and one big...but by the time their rookie contracts were about to expire, how much talent could you have potentially pulled in by trading Vasquez and Stephenson?  Which would have then left you with Bledsoe and Whiteside to build around?

Things are not always so black and white. 

In this case it wasn't just our seemingly crappy picks from this year, but also picks from next year (including the unprotected Nets pick) being offered, so there is much more at risk.

Now, oher scnearios:
* You'd never get pick #1 from those assets in 2010, so you aren't getting John Wall.
* You's never get pick #2 from those assets, so you aren't getting Turner (big deal)
* If you add extra assets maybe you can get #3, Derrick Favours - debatable if you're better off
* If you add extra assets and get pick #4, Wesley Johnson, you've epic failed
* If you add extra assets and get pick #5, Demarcus Cousins, you become an NBA god
* If you add extra assets and get pick #6, Ekpe Udoh, you've epic failed
* If you add extra assets and get pick #7, Greg Monroe, you'd done very well
* If you get pick #8, Al-Farouq Aminu, you've epic failed
* If you get pick #9, Gordon Hayward, you've done pretty good (better than Bledsoe? maybe)
* If you get pick #10, Paul George, then you've killed it
* If you get pick #11, Cole Aldrich, you've epic failed
* If you get pick #12, Xavier Henry, you've epic failed

So in 2010, if you add extra assets to get into a positions between 3-7, you've got a 2/5 chance of coming out of the trade without an epic fail. 

If you trading into a position between 8-12 (which we may have been able to get in to with the 4 picks offered) you have 2/5 chance of coming out of the trade without an epic fail.

So if you picked to give up those picks in order to trade in to a random slow between 3-12 that year, you have about a 6/10 chance that you're coming out of the trade as an epic fail...and at least 60% chance that you would have been better off not doing the trade.



t would have paid off, because you'd have Demarcus Cousins.

[MBunge]

ESPN is saying Danny offered SIX picks, including 4 first rounders in an offer to hornets for #9.

If Charlotte turned down that to slide down 7 spots...MJ is an idiot.

Which would you rather have:

Rookie Paul Pierce

or

#16 pick
#28 pick
#12-20 pick next year
Lottery protected pick next year or multiple second round picks

?


Nobody here with a logical brain would pass on the Pierce option.  Everyone belittling Charlotte is being a hypocrite, because they wouldn't have made the trade if they were in the position to make that pick and take Winslow/"Pierce".

But Charlotte drafted Frank

So?  Why do people keep posting that as if it's meaningful?  It's not.

How can you not understand an extraordinarily obvious point?  Winslow > Kaminsky.  If Charlotte took Winslow, you could argue for his supposedly great upside.  Even the people who like Kaminsky don't think he has much upside.

Mike

[Scintan]

ESPN is saying Danny offered SIX picks, including 4 first rounders in an offer to hornets for #9.

If Charlotte turned down that to slide down 7 spots...MJ is an idiot.

Which would you rather have:

Rookie Paul Pierce

or

#16 pick
#28 pick
#12-20 pick next year
Lottery protected pick next year or multiple second round picks

?


Nobody here with a logical brain would pass on the Pierce option.  Everyone belittling Charlotte is being a hypocrite, because they wouldn't have made the trade if they were in the position to make that pick and take Winslow/"Pierce".

But Charlotte drafted Frank

So?  Why do people keep posting that as if it's meaningful?  It's not.

How can you not understand an extraordinarily obvious point?  Winslow > Kaminsky.  If Charlotte took Winslow, you could argue for his supposedly great upside.  Even the people who like Kaminsky don't think he has much upside.

Mike

I'm not the one failing to grasp the point.  You are. Your argument is aimed at a specific player, and your opinion of that player is clearly different from the opinion Charlotte has of him.

Your opinion of the specific player is not relevant.  Charlotte's opinion of the player is the only one that matters.

[Scintan]

Which would you rather have:

Rookie Paul Pierce

or

#16 pick
#28 pick
#12-20 pick next year
Lottery protected pick next year or multiple second round picks

?


Nobody here with a logical brain would pass on the Pierce option.  Everyone belittling Charlotte is being a hypocrite, because they wouldn't have made the trade if they were in the position to make that pick and take Winslow/"Pierce".

In 2010:

* Al-Fariq Aminu was taken 8th overall pick
* Eric Bledsoe was 18th overall
* Greivis Vasquez was taken 28th overall
* Hassan Whiteside was taken 33rd overall
* Lance Stephenson was taken 40th overall

Based on your mentality, if you were the GM back in 2010 you'd happily trade the 18th, 28th, 33rd and 40th picks to the clippers in return for the #8 pick.

In hindsight, who would you rather have now?  Would you rather have JUST Al-Fariq Aminu...or would you rather have Eric Bledsoe, Greivis Vasquez, Hassan Whiteside and Lance Stephenson?

Yes, you have three guards and one big...but by the time their rookie contracts were about to expire, how much talent could you have potentially pulled in by trading Vasquez and Stephenson?  Which would have then left you with Bledsoe and Whiteside to build around?

Things are not always so black and white. 

In this case it wasn't just our seemingly crappy picks from this year, but also picks from next year (including the unprotected Nets pick) being offered, so there is much more at risk.

It's been enlightening to watch people making every ridiculous argument in the world in a lame attempt to turn this around on Charlotte.  Every argument has been clearly wrong, yet people continue to stick by them.  Stick by yours, too.  It's another one for the logbook.

[crimson_stallion]

ESPN is saying Danny offered SIX picks, including 4 first rounders in an offer to hornets for #9.

If Charlotte turned down that to slide down 7 spots...MJ is an idiot.

Which would you rather have:

Rookie Paul Pierce

or

#16 pick
#28 pick
#12-20 pick next year
Lottery protected pick next year or multiple second round picks

?


Nobody here with a logical brain would pass on the Pierce option.  Everyone belittling Charlotte is being a hypocrite, because they wouldn't have made the trade if they were in the position to make that pick and take Winslow/"Pierce".

But Charlotte drafted Frank

So?  Why do people keep posting that as if it's meaningful?  It's not.

How can you not understand an extraordinarily obvious point?  Winslow > Kaminsky.  If Charlotte took Winslow, you could argue for his supposedly great upside.  Even the people who like Kaminsky don't think he has much upside.

Mike

I'm not the one failing to grasp the point.  You are.

Actually, you are...

People are saying Charlotte are idiots for refusing our trade offer, only to draft Kaminsky at #9.

You are saying Charlotte aren't idiots, using the possibility of their player becoming Paul Pierce as the justification.

But Kaminsky has no chance of becoming Paul Pierce, so this argument is invalid.

I think what YOU are trying to argue is based on Boston making the trade BEFORE it was made (i.e. Boston moves up to #9, then drafts Winslow) but that's a moot point because that's not how it happened.  Teams want to wait to see who's still on the board before they trade their picks.  Charlotte knew Winslow was on the board, but they still Chose Kaminsky - obviously believing he's more valuable to them.

So if Charlotte chose Kaminsky over Winslow, and chose Kaminsky over Boston's trade offer, then Charlotte obviously felt that Kaminsky was more valuable than both Winslow AND Boston's trade offer

Hence Charlotte are idiots.

[PhoSita]

Imagine if the guy we take at #9 ends up Thomas Robinson, Rozier ends up being the next Eric Bledsoe, and Brooklyn finishes bottom 5?  Ainge looks like he should be fired on the spot.

Well, if that happened, the Celts would be bad, and get another high pick.

This rebuilding thing, it requires taking gambles.