Author Topic: NBA 2015 Combine  (Read 26781 times)

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Re: NBA 2015 Combine
« Reply #90 on: May 16, 2015, 04:50:37 PM »

Offline Celtics4ever

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. . . as if that's a bad thing.

It is not exactly a good one either.   I think Frank is the better of the two. in terms of creating his own shot.

Re: NBA 2015 Combine
« Reply #91 on: May 16, 2015, 05:10:13 PM »

Offline TA9

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I know some here love the wingspan and standing reach stats and so like Christian Wood but his 216 lbs at nearly 15% body fat is worrisome.

Said it months ago, Kaminsky is an Olynyk clone. Stay away from him.

WCS with great length and size comes in at 246 lbs and less than 7% body fat. That's impressive.

Conaughton with good SG size and his athleticism and shooting are excellent.

RHJ or Stanley Johnson in green would be the type of players that would fit the Celtics system if they can become efficient scorers.


Wood's size may be a worrisome thing, but you have to consider taking him at 28, right?

wood has a 7'3" wingspan and 9'3.5 reach. These are Chris Bosh, Ibaka like measurements

He can still get stronger and add muscle
He has a tiny frame. I don't buy the " he will add muscle and get stronger" with him. But at 28 if he is BPA, you have to take him though I would feel better drafting him at 33 and not giving him the guaranteed money.

Besides, I think the C's move the 28th pick. Either to move up from 16 or in a trade with future firsts for a player. I don't see the Celtics picking two players in the first round.
Nick is absolutely right! Funny enough this situation reminds of us drafting JaJuan Johnson. The guy never added muscle to his tiny frame, hence that I'm having a hard time seeing Wood do so.
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Re: NBA 2015 Combine
« Reply #92 on: May 16, 2015, 05:28:39 PM »

Offline Tr1boy

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Vince Hunter is a guy I would keep my eye on.   Gerald Wallace clone with a slightly better jump shot.  Better looking form but still needs to work on it.  6'8, 6'11 wingspan 37.5 max vertical.

Just crappy to play against with one of those non stop running motors.   Gerald Wallace/Matt Barnes ceiling

Re: NBA 2015 Combine
« Reply #93 on: May 16, 2015, 09:45:48 PM »

Offline Celtics18

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. . . as if that's a bad thing.

It is not exactly a good one either.   I think Frank is the better of the two. in terms of creating his own shot.

I wouldn't be sure about that.  According to NBA.COM's stats page the only NBA bigs who scored more points per minutes off drives last season than Kelly Olynyk were Demarcus Cousins, Josh Smith, Paul Millsap, and Boris Diaw. 

I consider that to be a fairly impressive statistic.  I believe you are underrating Kelly's abilities as a shot creator.
DKC Seventy-Sixers:

PG: G. Hill/D. Schroder
SG: C. Lee/B. Hield/T. Luwawu
SF:  Giannis/J. Lamb/M. Kuzminskas
PF:  E. Ilyasova/J. Jerebko/R. Christmas
C:    N. Vucevic/K. Olynyk/E. Davis/C. Jefferson

Re: NBA 2015 Combine
« Reply #94 on: May 16, 2015, 10:39:32 PM »

Offline Beat LA

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Vince Hunter is a guy I would keep my eye on.   Gerald Wallace clone with a slightly better jump shot.  Better looking form but still needs to work on it.  6'8, 6'11 wingspan 37.5 max vertical.

Just crappy to play against with one of those non stop running motors.   Gerald Wallace/Matt Barnes ceiling

I was wondering if someone was going to mention him.  He looks like a tweener, so he's already an Ainge favorite, lol ;D, but I like his athleticism, effort, and toughness, too.

Re: NBA 2015 Combine
« Reply #95 on: May 16, 2015, 10:42:30 PM »

Offline Beat LA

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. . . as if that's a bad thing.

It is not exactly a good one either.   I think Frank is the better of the two. in terms of creating his own shot.

I wouldn't be sure about that.  According to NBA.COM's stats page the only NBA bigs who scored more points per minutes off drives last season than Kelly Olynyk were Demarcus Cousins, Josh Smith, Paul Millsap, and Boris Diaw. 

I consider that to be a fairly impressive statistic.  I believe you are underrating Kelly's abilities as a shot creator.

This is where numbers fail to tell the whole story, imo, lol ;D. Statistically, sure, it looks impressive, but the eye test tells a far different tale, at least to me, anyway.

Re: NBA 2015 Combine
« Reply #96 on: May 17, 2015, 04:04:25 AM »

Offline Celtics18

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. . . as if that's a bad thing.

It is not exactly a good one either.   I think Frank is the better of the two. in terms of creating his own shot.

I wouldn't be sure about that.  According to NBA.COM's stats page the only NBA bigs who scored more points per minutes off drives last season than Kelly Olynyk were Demarcus Cousins, Josh Smith, Paul Millsap, and Boris Diaw. 

I consider that to be a fairly impressive statistic.  I believe you are underrating Kelly's abilities as a shot creator.

This is where numbers fail to tell the whole story, imo, lol ;D. Statistically, sure, it looks impressive, but the eye test tells a far different tale, at least to me, anyway.

And that's a classic example of the eye test being biased.

While my eye test has consistently told me that Kelly Olynyk is an elite dribble driver for a man his size, I realize that I am biased.  When the numbers confirm my observations, though, I start to think that there might actually be something to what I am seeing on the court. 

To me these are the situations where statistics can be quite useful.  When they confirm something you've seen on the court, well, then you might be onto something.  When what you see on the court is completely out of whack with what the numbers say, it may be time to re-evaluate what you think you've seen. 
DKC Seventy-Sixers:

PG: G. Hill/D. Schroder
SG: C. Lee/B. Hield/T. Luwawu
SF:  Giannis/J. Lamb/M. Kuzminskas
PF:  E. Ilyasova/J. Jerebko/R. Christmas
C:    N. Vucevic/K. Olynyk/E. Davis/C. Jefferson

Re: NBA 2015 Combine
« Reply #97 on: May 17, 2015, 04:39:43 AM »

Offline TheFlex

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. . . as if that's a bad thing.

It is not exactly a good one either.   I think Frank is the better of the two. in terms of creating his own shot.

I wouldn't be sure about that.  According to NBA.COM's stats page the only NBA bigs who scored more points per minutes off drives last season than Kelly Olynyk were Demarcus Cousins, Josh Smith, Paul Millsap, and Boris Diaw. 

I consider that to be a fairly impressive statistic.  I believe you are underrating Kelly's abilities as a shot creator.

This is where numbers fail to tell the whole story, imo, lol ;D. Statistically, sure, it looks impressive, but the eye test tells a far different tale, at least to me, anyway.

This is not an advanced calculation, but merely a tracking metric. Your logic is parallel to someone who says someone's ppg and FG% misrepresent their true scoring ability. Railing against the "mystique" of the generalized idea of stats can only go so far. At some point it's appropriate to recognize the difference between cold, hard numbers (C18's proof of KO's shot creating ability) and manipulated ones (PER).


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Re: NBA 2015 Combine
« Reply #98 on: May 17, 2015, 05:34:42 PM »

Offline nickagneta

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. . . as if that's a bad thing.

It is not exactly a good one either.   I think Frank is the better of the two. in terms of creating his own shot.

I wouldn't be sure about that.  According to NBA.COM's stats page the only NBA bigs who scored more points per minutes off drives last season than Kelly Olynyk were Demarcus Cousins, Josh Smith, Paul Millsap, and Boris Diaw. 

I consider that to be a fairly impressive statistic.  I believe you are underrating Kelly's abilities as a shot creator.

This is where numbers fail to tell the whole story, imo, lol ;D. Statistically, sure, it looks impressive, but the eye test tells a far different tale, at least to me, anyway.

This is not an advanced calculation, but merely a tracking metric. Your logic is parallel to someone who says someone's ppg and FG% misrepresent their true scoring ability. Railing against the "mystique" of the generalized idea of stats can only go so far. At some point it's appropriate to recognize the difference between cold, hard numbers (C18's proof of KO's shot creating ability) and manipulated ones (PER).
Whoa, whoa,whoa. I don't think Celtics18's stat for Kelly Olynyk proves anything.
First, it's a per minute stat which always breaks things down to the ridiculous and allows outliers. Second it's a stat for drives to the basket which doesn't necessarily translate to ability to create your own offense. That's a fairly large subjective interpretation of that stat. What is a drive to the basket? Is it that you get the ball stop, create offense and drive or is that you receive a pass as part of the play and with an open lane drive and score?

I don't think that stat proves what you think it proves.

Re: NBA 2015 Combine
« Reply #99 on: May 17, 2015, 08:33:07 PM »

Offline Celtics18

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. . . as if that's a bad thing.

It is not exactly a good one either.   I think Frank is the better of the two. in terms of creating his own shot.

I wouldn't be sure about that.  According to NBA.COM's stats page the only NBA bigs who scored more points per minutes off drives last season than Kelly Olynyk were Demarcus Cousins, Josh Smith, Paul Millsap, and Boris Diaw. 

I consider that to be a fairly impressive statistic.  I believe you are underrating Kelly's abilities as a shot creator.

This is where numbers fail to tell the whole story, imo, lol ;D. Statistically, sure, it looks impressive, but the eye test tells a far different tale, at least to me, anyway.

This is not an advanced calculation, but merely a tracking metric. Your logic is parallel to someone who says someone's ppg and FG% misrepresent their true scoring ability. Railing against the "mystique" of the generalized idea of stats can only go so far. At some point it's appropriate to recognize the difference between cold, hard numbers (C18's proof of KO's shot creating ability) and manipulated ones (PER).
Whoa, whoa,whoa. I don't think Celtics18's stat for Kelly Olynyk proves anything.
First, it's a per minute stat which always breaks things down to the ridiculous and allows outliers. Second it's a stat for drives to the basket which doesn't necessarily translate to ability to create your own offense. That's a fairly large subjective interpretation of that stat. What is a drive to the basket? Is it that you get the ball stop, create offense and drive or is that you receive a pass as part of the play and with an open lane drive and score?

I don't think that stat proves what you think it proves.


NBA.COM defines a drive as "any touch that starts at least 20 feet from the hoop and is dribbled within 10 feet of the hoop and excludes fast breaks."

No, of course, the stat on its own doesn't definitively prove that Kelly is an elite creator off the dribble.  Based on my interpretation of the above wording, a "drive" would include either of the scenarios you present.

I agree that a large part of Olynyk's effectiveness as a driver is when he catches the ball beyond the arc and is able to "attack the closeout" to use parlance that they always use in scouting videos.

Does that count as "creating offense" in your book?  I don't know.  It's certainly not starting the offense, something I don't remember seeing Kelly do very often. 

But, the fact that he is able to attack based in part on his effectiveness as a three point shooter and that bigs are forced to guard him out to the three point line makes him effective at creating offense in my book.

There aren't that many bigs who have the kind of skill, not only at shooting from the perimeter, but also at using the closeouts by opposing bigs to consistently get in the lane and make plays.

Kelly has that.  It's valuable.  If you want definitive proof that his skills are valuable, sorry, I can't provide that.   

DKC Seventy-Sixers:

PG: G. Hill/D. Schroder
SG: C. Lee/B. Hield/T. Luwawu
SF:  Giannis/J. Lamb/M. Kuzminskas
PF:  E. Ilyasova/J. Jerebko/R. Christmas
C:    N. Vucevic/K. Olynyk/E. Davis/C. Jefferson

Re: NBA 2015 Combine
« Reply #100 on: May 17, 2015, 09:05:23 PM »

Offline Celtics18

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As to per minute stats being prone to outliers, I get that.  But Kelly played over 1400 minutes last season.  I find that to be reasonably substantial sample.
DKC Seventy-Sixers:

PG: G. Hill/D. Schroder
SG: C. Lee/B. Hield/T. Luwawu
SF:  Giannis/J. Lamb/M. Kuzminskas
PF:  E. Ilyasova/J. Jerebko/R. Christmas
C:    N. Vucevic/K. Olynyk/E. Davis/C. Jefferson

Re: NBA 2015 Combine
« Reply #101 on: May 17, 2015, 09:56:23 PM »

Offline TheFlex

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. . . as if that's a bad thing.

It is not exactly a good one either.   I think Frank is the better of the two. in terms of creating his own shot.

I wouldn't be sure about that.  According to NBA.COM's stats page the only NBA bigs who scored more points per minutes off drives last season than Kelly Olynyk were Demarcus Cousins, Josh Smith, Paul Millsap, and Boris Diaw. 

I consider that to be a fairly impressive statistic.  I believe you are underrating Kelly's abilities as a shot creator.

This is where numbers fail to tell the whole story, imo, lol ;D. Statistically, sure, it looks impressive, but the eye test tells a far different tale, at least to me, anyway.

This is not an advanced calculation, but merely a tracking metric. Your logic is parallel to someone who says someone's ppg and FG% misrepresent their true scoring ability. Railing against the "mystique" of the generalized idea of stats can only go so far. At some point it's appropriate to recognize the difference between cold, hard numbers (C18's proof of KO's shot creating ability) and manipulated ones (PER).
Whoa, whoa,whoa. I don't think Celtics18's stat for Kelly Olynyk proves anything.
First, it's a per minute stat which always breaks things down to the ridiculous and allows outliers. Second it's a stat for drives to the basket which doesn't necessarily translate to ability to create your own offense. That's a fairly large subjective interpretation of that stat. What is a drive to the basket? Is it that you get the ball stop, create offense and drive or is that you receive a pass as part of the play and with an open lane drive and score?

I don't think that stat proves what you think it proves.

I shouldn't have said that it "proves" Kelly can create his shot, but it's undeniable evidence to support the hypothesis that he can.

Again, my problem primarily lies with people refusing to differentiate between advanced stats and player tracking. One involves the hypothetical manipulation of numbers. PER is a good example, a stat that attempts to represent a player's overall offensive efficiency by combining box score stats and arbitrarily assigning weight to one offensive unit over the other. All C18's stat does is track a certain action on the court and tell us how often it is successful. It's really no different than ppg, which the anti-stats people seem to have no problem using.


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Re: NBA 2015 Combine
« Reply #102 on: May 17, 2015, 10:14:12 PM »

Offline Celtics4ever

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Trouble is his confidence, some games he has it and some he does not.  When he does it is good, when he does not you might as sit him down as he will be horrible.   One never knows which one will show up.

Quote
While my eye test has consistently told me that Kelly Olynyk is an elite dribble driver for a man his size, I realize that I am biased.  When the numbers confirm my observations, though, I start to think that there might actually be something to what I am seeing on the court

What does your eyetest tell you about his first step  or footspeed?

Re: NBA 2015 Combine
« Reply #103 on: May 17, 2015, 10:21:09 PM »

Offline Celtics18

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Trouble is his confidence, some games he has it and some he does not.  When he does it is good, when he does not you might as sit him down as he will be horrible.   One never knows which one will show up.

Quote
While my eye test has consistently told me that Kelly Olynyk is an elite dribble driver for a man his size, I realize that I am biased.  When the numbers confirm my observations, though, I start to think that there might actually be something to what I am seeing on the court

What does your eyetest tell you about his first step  or footspeed?

He's got a nice first step, and he runs the floor fairly well.  His lateral movement definitely leaves something to be desired, though. 
DKC Seventy-Sixers:

PG: G. Hill/D. Schroder
SG: C. Lee/B. Hield/T. Luwawu
SF:  Giannis/J. Lamb/M. Kuzminskas
PF:  E. Ilyasova/J. Jerebko/R. Christmas
C:    N. Vucevic/K. Olynyk/E. Davis/C. Jefferson

Re: NBA 2015 Combine
« Reply #104 on: May 17, 2015, 10:22:38 PM »

Offline Celtics18

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Trouble is his confidence, some games he has it and some he does not.  When he does it is good, when he does not you might as sit him down as he will be horrible.   One never knows which one will show up.



I agree that he has good games and bad games.  Seems fairly common. 

DKC Seventy-Sixers:

PG: G. Hill/D. Schroder
SG: C. Lee/B. Hield/T. Luwawu
SF:  Giannis/J. Lamb/M. Kuzminskas
PF:  E. Ilyasova/J. Jerebko/R. Christmas
C:    N. Vucevic/K. Olynyk/E. Davis/C. Jefferson