The Celtics have blown four drafts in a row.

[Bosstown]

I don't get how Giannis was the obvious choice when there were questions at the time about his age (especially in a post-Bismack draft), his eventual position in the NBA, and the quality of his competition. Calling Giannis the safer pick is pure revisionist history.

Frankly, I still wonder what Giannis' career is going to look like. Unless he can develop a consistent 15-footer, he's going to be . . . what, exactly? A rich man's Hakim Warrick? The next Jonathan Bender?

http://vorped.com/1-nba/2014-2015/player/1529/giannis-antetokounmpo/shotchart/

and what is Kelly's? A no defense 7 ft shooting guard?

You do realize that Olynyk has the same defensive rating over his career as Giannis, right?

Regardless, in a league that is accentuating more and more the concept of pace and space, it seems like Olynyk has a base skillset that should translate to a rotational role for him in the NBA. I expect him to be a decent bench big man. Considering where he was drafted, that's not [dang]ing him with faint praise.

It doesn't matter, Giannis has way more defensive potential with his length and athleticism. Kelly can only get so much better defensively due to his lack of athleticism, while Giannis could POTENTIALLY be a lockdown defender for years to come. In 5 years we'll see who the better defender really is.

Sure, Giannis has more potential as a defender. God forbid he lose that potential due to injury.

Olynyk has more potential as a shooter. Shall we also see who the better scorer is in five years while we're at it?

At least you're willing to revisit things in five years.  Anyone who's offering definitive pronouncements on the future of the NBA Class of 2013 is full of it.

I think no matter what KO will be a better offensive player than Giannis, but Giannis has the potential of being a great two way wing. And at a young age, has plenty of room to grow and develop.

He'll be a better shooter sure, but Giannis still could be the better scorer because he can actually take his man off the dribble. I can't predict the future but Giannis has more upside and if he keeps developing his handle and using the "two steps to get to the hoop from half court" eurostep, he's going to be a handful.

[Bosstown]

I don't get how Giannis was the obvious choice when there were questions at the time about his age (especially in a post-Bismack draft), his eventual position in the NBA, and the quality of his competition. Calling Giannis the safer pick is pure revisionist history.

Frankly, I still wonder what Giannis' career is going to look like. Unless he can develop a consistent 15-footer, he's going to be . . . what, exactly? A rich man's Hakim Warrick? The next Jonathan Bender?

http://vorped.com/1-nba/2014-2015/player/1529/giannis-antetokounmpo/shotchart/

and what is Kelly's? A no defense 7 ft shooting guard?

You do realize that Olynyk has the same defensive rating over his career as Giannis, right?

Regardless, in a league that is accentuating more and more the concept of pace and space, it seems like Olynyk has a base skillset that should translate to a rotational role for him in the NBA. I expect him to be a decent bench big man. Considering where he was drafted, that's not [dang]ing him with faint praise.

It doesn't matter, Giannis has way more defensive potential with his length and athleticism. Kelly can only get so much better defensively due to his lack of athleticism, while Giannis could POTENTIALLY be a lockdown defender for years to come. In 5 years we'll see who the better defender really is.

Sure, Giannis has more potential as a defender. God forbid he lose that potential due to injury.

Olynyk has more potential as a shooter. Shall we also see who the better scorer is in five years while we're at it?

At least you're willing to revisit things in five years.  Anyone who's offering definitive pronouncements on the future of the NBA Class of 2013 is full of it.

I have to, I'm no fortune teller. However, I do have strong opinions. 

[mef730]

just for the heck of it we should probably try to do this with Bill Belichick too.  I'm not so sure we should give him credit for drafting Tom Brady. He passed over him like 5 times before taking him 199th.

Even worse: Suppose we could have gotten him in the sixth or seventh round?  Not only did we suck for not picking him early enough, we would have also sucked for picking him too early.

Awful is the state the Nets are in

You and others can say what you will about the Nets but, in a thread about draft busts, I think it's only fair to point out that, as things stand now, I can guarantee that the Nets will have no more than two first round busts over the next four drafts.  Can't say that about a lot of teams.

Mike

[Eric M VAN]

I heard Danny Ainge once kicked a puppy.

I hate that Puppy Kicking Ainge.

[SparzWizard]

I only thought JaJuan Johnson, Etawn Moore, and Fab Melo were blown draft picks. Sully, Olynyk, and Smart were decent pickups for their draft numbers.

[kraidstar]

You can insult me all you would like but you have no counter to my actual argument. I am correct.

Insults are out of line. And my earlier post may have come across as such. Apologies if so.
But, we all need to take a measured approach to this. Consider the following:

(1) Smart was just drafted. He looks like a good pick. You gotta give him a *little* benefit of the doubt here.
(2) KO? I'm on the fence. I think he'll be a bust personally. It was a risky pick by Ainge, doesn't look like it will pan out.
(3) Sully was a good pick. An All Star? No, probably not. But for where DA was picking, he almost qualifies as a steal.
(3A) Fab Melo, a risky pick and a bust.
(4) JJ. Bust. No question. But consider this: Q: how many busts are there that late in the draft? A: Many.

I also note that you conveniently left Bradley off the list. Many on this forum had him listed as a "bust" until the last year, when started averaging ~15 points a game. Why do I point this out? Because it helps point out that you cant' judge too early. So, hold off on judging Smart, and probably hold off on judging KO....

I actually call Bradley a good pick. I mention it in my OP.

I just think picking Olynyk over Giannis when we scouted him hard was a massive error. JJ and Melo were awful selections when there were others on the board the Celtics liked. especially Chandler Parsons who told interviewers here in Houston he was shocked Boston did not select him. I like Danny as a GM but after the Sullinger articles today I went back and Boston's drafting has been weak for a while now.

why do you keep mentioning chandler parsons like he's some great player? his stats per minute are essentially the same as KO's (who you call a bust), and his FG percentage is similar as well. and parsons is 3 years older, has limited upside, and is severely overpaid.

another point i'd like to make: people keep talking about how the fab melo pick was a disaster, but take a glance at the draft chart and pretty much everybody taken after him was garbage. the only names that jump out at me are draymond green and jae crowder, both picked in the second round. and nobody expected anything from those guys before the draft. golden state got lucky and that's about it. i don't see how that draft is ainge's fault.

[Vermont Green]

another point i'd like to make: people keep talking about how the fab melo pick was a disaster, but take a glance at the draft chart and pretty much everybody taken after him was garbage. the only names that jump out at me are draymond green and jae crowder, both picked in the second round. and nobody expected anything from those guys before the draft. golden state got lucky and that's about it. i don't see how that draft is ainge's fault.

You are correct that there was not that much left in the Fab Melo draft at that point (and I totally agree with your broader point) but I do think it was pretty clear that Fab Melo had no chance to play in the NBA.  I think Danny picked him because he had two picks that year and decided to take a chance on upside.  It was a bad pick though, Danny's worst.

Other than Fab, I am not real critical of DA's picks, even JaJuan Johnson.  Picking that late in the first round is really hard.  I don't understand what people who are critical expect.  Drafting 19 year olds is a crap shoot.  There is no way to project how these kids will play in the NBA.  I know it seems like GMs should be able to but there is no way.  After the top 5-10, they could draw names out of a hat and do just as well.

[DarkAzcura]

If a Fab Melo pick close to the mid 20s is your worst pick as a GM over the course of 10+ years, then you are sitting pretty golden.

[Ilikesports17]

especially Chandler Parsons who told interviewers here in Houston he was shocked Boston did not select him.

I dont get this point doesnt it just underscore that Chandler Parsons was probably their insurance plan there? A lot of pick dont work out that late in the draft and Jajuan Johnson had undeniably higher potential than Parsons. Ainge took a risk and it didnt work, the fact that he was so interested in a guy like Parsons isnt necessarily impressive but its conterproductive to your point. If Ainge didnt even consider these guys, just passed them over and was always scouting and talking to the Fab Melos of the world that gives you ammo, but your point seems to be that he narrows in on some really good players, jhe just misses them sometime.

With Rondo he hit, with big Al he hit, with Sully IMO he hit, I believe James Young will eventually fall into that category, With Big Baby he it with Melo and JJJ he missed thats what happened when you pick at picks 21 and 27

[greg683x]

I only thought JaJuan Johnson, Etawn Moore, and Fab Melo were blown draft picks. Sully, Olynyk, and Smart were decent pickups for their draft numbers.

how can you call Etwan Moore a blown pick??  Wasnt he like the 57th pick in the draft?  The fact that he's still in the league shows hes not a blown pick. 

Johnson and Melo were late 20's picks, it's hard to blast someone picking that late in the draft.

Ainges worst pick by far is JR Giddens.  Yeah he was the 30th pick but considering all the other players surrounding him that turned out to be solid players, I dont have a problem saying Danny botched that draft.....big time.

[ssspence]

2011: JaJuan Johnson
2012: Sullinger and Fab Melo
2013: Olynyk
2014: Smart and Young

2011 to 2013 are all blown drafts. Smart at least plays good D but for a top 6 pick they should do better. Young looks like a less athletic Gerald Green.

In 2011 they looked long and hard at Chandler Parsons. In an interview he even said he was shocked they did not pick him.

2012, Sullinger will eat himself out of the league and in Jackie Mac's article today Danny admits they knew he had weight issues. Fab Melo. Need I say more?

2013, Draftexpress starts covering the Greek Freak after Ainge is seen scouting him personally. He reverts to his typical anti Euro bias and takes the safe choice in Olynyk who can not guard a locked door with a shotgun. Meanwhile Giannis Antetokounmpo is going to be well, we all know what he is going to be.

2014, the jury is still out. Hopefully after three drafts in a row the Boston "Brain Trust" will not blow it. Do not hold your breath.

Boston has not drafted a decent player since Bradley in 2010. That is just awful. Sullinger is injury prone and has not even tried to handle his weight. Instead he lies about it. Look up any of his interviews from last summer if you don't believe me. Olynyk plays terrified and is useless on D. Useless.

In the end all the people who are excited we have however many million draft picks should realize Boston has blown four drafts in a row and blown them bad. There is no way to debate it. Melo, Johnson and even Brooks who he was traded for are all out of the league, Sullinger has yet to play a full season and is about to be the next Oliver Miller. Olynyk will be playing in Greece in two years while the Greek we should have picked will be in the MVP race. Thanks "Brain Trust".

ZZZZZZZZZZzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz...please forgive the sound of my snoring.  That's correct, you're boring and I'm snoring.

Never understood why second poster on virtually every thread quotes the entire post of the OP before commenting on it. Couldn't you just... ya know... comment? It's a thread after all....

[Beat LA]

I don't get how Giannis was the obvious choice when there were questions at the time about his age (especially in a post-Bismack draft), his eventual position in the NBA, and the quality of his competition. Calling Giannis the safer pick is pure revisionist history.

Frankly, I still wonder what Giannis' career is going to look like. Unless he can develop a consistent 15-footer, he's going to be . . . what, exactly? A rich man's Hakim Warrick? The next Jonathan Bender?

http://vorped.com/1-nba/2014-2015/player/1529/giannis-antetokounmpo/shotchart/

and what is Kelly's? A no defense 7 ft shooting guard?

You do realize that Olynyk has the same defensive rating over his career as Giannis, right?

Regardless, in a league that is accentuating more and more the concept of pace and space, it seems like Olynyk has a base skillset that should translate to a rotational role for him in the NBA. I expect him to be a decent bench big man. Considering where he was drafted, that's not [dang]ing him with faint praise.

This is where analytics come up short, imo.  It's not all about numbers.  Have you actually seen Giannis play defense?  He swatted a KD layup his rookie year, after trailing the play, that looked like that famous clip of Rodman stuffing Pippen in the 1988 playoffs, iirc.  If you do want numbers, however, try this - as a WING, Giannis is averaging 6.9 rpg and 1.1 bpg.  The last stat is the most eye-opening one, imo, especially when comparing him to Nolynyk, who, at 7'0", doesn't even average one block per game.  Giannis and KJ McDaniels would have given us better shot blocking than any of our big guys, but we are where we are.  Ugh.  I refuse to use the term 'rim protection,' btw, as it sounds hilariously dumb to me, lol.

[Celtics4ever]

I can't predict the future but Giannis has more upside

This is undeniably true, folks.  He is younger, more athletic and still growing.

[Beat LA]

I only thought JaJuan Johnson, Etawn Moore, and Fab Melo were blown draft picks. Sully, Olynyk, and Smart were decent pickups for their draft numbers.

how can you call Etwan Moore a blown pick??  Wasnt he like the 57th pick in the draft?  The fact that he's still in the league shows hes not a blown pick. 

Johnson and Melo were late 20's picks, it's hard to blast someone picking that late in the draft.

Ainges worst pick by far is JR Giddens.  Yeah he was the 30th pick but considering all the other players surrounding him that turned out to be solid players, I dont have a problem saying Danny botched that draft.....big time.

I completely agree, and even if he had still passed on Deandre Jordan , Mario Chalmers would have been an outstanding third guard for us from day one, imo.

[JHTruth]

Smart is the only "blown" pick in my view. Most picks outside the top 10-13 never do anything in the NBA. The few that do are the exception, not the rule. Bashing Fab Melo is just ridiculous when you look at the history of his draft position. If he had stuck in the league he would have defied the odds. Giddens as well. Guys picked in the second that make it in the league are pure luck honestly.

Even Smart is debatable. His numbers aren't horrible for a rook PG. He will likely never be an all-star, but those are rare..