The Celtics have blown four drafts in a row.

[Lucky17]

I don't get how Giannis was the obvious choice when there were questions at the time about his age (especially in a post-Bismack draft), his eventual position in the NBA, and the quality of his competition. Calling Giannis the safer pick is pure revisionist history.

Frankly, I still wonder what Giannis' career is going to look like. Unless he can develop a consistent 15-footer, he's going to be . . . what, exactly? A rich man's Hakim Warrick? The next Jonathan Bender?

http://vorped.com/1-nba/2014-2015/player/1529/giannis-antetokounmpo/shotchart/

and what is Kelly's? A no defense 7 ft shooting guard?

You do realize that Olynyk has the same defensive rating over his career as Giannis, right?

Regardless, in a league that is accentuating more and more the concept of pace and space, it seems like Olynyk has a base skillset that should translate to a rotational role for him in the NBA. I expect him to be a decent bench big man. Considering where he was drafted, that's not [dang]ing him with faint praise.

This is where analytics come up short, imo.  It's not all about numbers.  Have you actually seen Giannis play defense?  He swatted a KD layup his rookie year, after trailing the play, that looked like that famous clip of Rodman stuffing Pippen in the 1988 playoffs, iirc.  If you do want numbers, however, try this - as a WING, Giannis is averaging 6.9 rpg and 1.1 bpg.  The last stat is the most eye-opening one, imo, especially when comparing him to Nolynyk, who, at 7'0", doesn't even average one block per game.  Giannis and KJ McDaniels would have given us better shot blocking than any of our big guys, but we are where we are.  Ugh.  I refuse to use the term 'rim protection,' btw, as it sounds hilariously dumb to me, lol.

Isn't Giannis playing the wing because he's an awful option as a PF, and he can't currently shoot a lick as a SG?

By the way, if you normalize their stats, the differences in their block numbers is really not that stark. More importantly, KO averages more rebounds than Giannis.

http://bkref.com/tiny/kspXa

[JHTruth]

Melo was picked 22nd overall.

Here's a history of 22 picks:

Year   Player   Drafted From   Drafted By
2013   Mason Plumlee   Duke   Brooklyn
2012   Fab Melo   Syracuse   Boston
2011   Kenneth Faried   Morehead State   Denver
2010   Elliot Williams   Memphis   Portland
2009   Victor Claver   Spain   Portland
2008   Courtney Lee   Western Kentucky   Orlando
2007   Jared Dudley   Boston College   Charlotte
2006   Marcus Williams   Connecticut   New Jersey
2005   Jarrett Jack   Georgia Tech Jr.   Denver
2004   Viktor Khryapa   Russia 1982   Portland
2003   Zoran Planinic   Croatia 1982   New Jersey
2002   Casey Jacobsen   Stanford Jr.   Phoenix
2001   Joseph Forte   North Carolina So.   Boston
2000   Donnell Harvey   Florida Fr.   New York
1999   Kenny Thomas   New Mexico Sr.   Houston
1998   Brian Skinner   Baylor   LA Clippers
1997   Ed Gray   California   Atlanta
1996   Roy Rogers   Alabama   Vancouver
1995   George Zidek   UCLA   NO Hornets
1994   Bill Curley   BostonCollege   San Antonio
1993   Chris Mills   Arizona   Cleveland
1992   Oliver Miller   Arkansas   Phoenix
1991   LeRon Ellis   Syracuse   LA Clippers
1990   Tate George   Connecticut   New Jersey
1989   Byron Irvin   Missouri   Portland
1988   Randolph Keys   Southern Mississippi   Cleveland
1987   Reggie Lewis   Northeastern   Boston
1986   Scott Skiles   Michigan State   Milwaukee
1985   Jerry Reynolds   Louisiana State   Milwaukee
1984   Tom Sewell   Lamar   Philadelphia
1983   Randy Wittman   Indiana   Washington
1982   Mark McNamara   California   Philadelphia
1981   Franklin Edwards   ClevelandState   Philadelphia
1980   Chad Kinch   North Carolina-Charlotte   Cleveland

I mean mostly busts, with a minority of rotation players. You guys need to adjust your expectations. You think you're going to get Hakeem with picks in the 20's?

[Beat LA]

Ainge is a not a talented drafter, he's pretty average. He makes his money through trades.

Bingo.  TP.

[JHTruth]

JJJ was picked 27th:

A little history there:

Year   Player   Drafted From   Drafted By
2013   Rudy Gobert   France   Denver
2012   Arnett Moultrie   Mississippi State   Miami
2011   JaJuan Johnson   Purdue   New Jersey
2010   Jordan Crawford   Xavier   New Jersey
2009   DeMarre Carroll   Missouri   Memphis
2008   Darrell Arthur   Kansas   Portland
2007   Aaron Afflalo   UCLA   Detroit
2006   Sergio Rodriguez   Spain   Portland
2005   Linas Kleiza   Missouri So.   Portland
2004   Sasha Vujacic   Slovenia 1984   LA Lakers
2003   Kendrick Perkins   Beaumont, TX HSSr.   Memphis
2002   John Salmons   MiamiSr.   San Antonio
2001   Samuel Dalembert   Seton Hall So.   Philadelphia
2000   Primoz Brezec   Slovenia   Indiana
1999   Jumaine Jones   Georgia So.   Atlanta
1998   Vladimir Stepania   Ljubljana   Seattle
1997   Jacque Vaughn   Kansas   Utah
1996   Brian Evans   Indiana   Orlando
1995   Mario Bennett   Arizona State   Phoenix
1994   Brooks Thompson   Oklahoma State   Orlando
1993   Malcolm Mackey   Georgia Tech   Phoenix
1992   Byron Houston   Oklahoma State   Chicago
1991   Pete Chilcutt   North Carolina   Sacramento
1990   Elden Campbell   Clemson   LA Lakers
1989   Kenny Battle   Illinois   Detroit
1988   Shelton Jones   St. John's   San Antonio
1987   Nate Blackwell   Temple   San Antonio
1986   Dennis Rodman   SE Oklahoma State   Detroit
1985   Dwayne McClain   Villanova   Indiana
1984   Ron Anderson   Fresno State   Cleveland
1983   John Garris   BostonCollege   Cleveland
1982   Fred Roberts   Brigham Young   Milwaukee
1981   Howard Wood   Tennessee   Utah
1980   John Stroud   Mississippi

[Beat LA]

Ainge is not perfect, he has a penchant for drafting tweeners.  Sometimes, I think he looks for a guy that can play who has value but might have some flaws that scared off others.  When it works it is brilliant when it does not, them it is chalked up to their flaws. 

I hope he goes for some athletic bigs this year.  I hope CBS can strengthen his college drafting skills with his connections.

You could not name 5 better than him with a track record.

Pat Riley gets value where he drafts - MIA
OKC are superb drafters- OKC
Bird was a good drafter - IND
Isiah Thomas was excellent at drafting. _ NYC got a lot of NBA players
Pop/ RC Buford get value as well. -SA
Neil Oshey gets value - PORT  Lilliard, Aldridge\

I think that is five who draft better than are currently drafting for their teams.  I named six overall.

Ainge is not on this list as a drafter

http://basketball.realgm.com/wiretap/232776/Study-Finds-Isiah-Thomas-As-Best-Drafting-GM-Since-1989

TP.  I'd rather have Bird than Ainge, but that's not possible. The only other guy I'd add to that list would be Morey, and maybe whoever is in charge in Chicago.  Is it John Paxson?  I can't remember right now.  The Bulls seem to have a great track record of getting great European guys like Kukoc and Mirotic, not to mention Jimmy Butler.  Tony Snell doesn't help his cause, lol, but the rest of their guys have at least been solid players, iirc.

[JHTruth]

Ainge is a not a talented drafter, he's pretty average. He makes his money through trades.

Bingo.  TP.

His % is higher than most. Drafting where he has been usually means a very low success rate (as I've demonstrated). You mostly have to get lucky..

[inverselock]

Lucky Ainge didn't draft Jimmy Butler or Draymond Green.   Posters would have calling for his head while waiting 3/4 years before they became good players.

[Bosstown]

I don't get how Giannis was the obvious choice when there were questions at the time about his age (especially in a post-Bismack draft), his eventual position in the NBA, and the quality of his competition. Calling Giannis the safer pick is pure revisionist history.

Frankly, I still wonder what Giannis' career is going to look like. Unless he can develop a consistent 15-footer, he's going to be . . . what, exactly? A rich man's Hakim Warrick? The next Jonathan Bender?

http://vorped.com/1-nba/2014-2015/player/1529/giannis-antetokounmpo/shotchart/

and what is Kelly's? A no defense 7 ft shooting guard?

You do realize that Olynyk has the same defensive rating over his career as Giannis, right?

Regardless, in a league that is accentuating more and more the concept of pace and space, it seems like Olynyk has a base skillset that should translate to a rotational role for him in the NBA. I expect him to be a decent bench big man. Considering where he was drafted, that's not [dang]ing him with faint praise.

This is where analytics come up short, imo.  It's not all about numbers.  Have you actually seen Giannis play defense?  He swatted a KD layup his rookie year, after trailing the play, that looked like that famous clip of Rodman stuffing Pippen in the 1988 playoffs, iirc.  If you do want numbers, however, try this - as a WING, Giannis is averaging 6.9 rpg and 1.1 bpg.  The last stat is the most eye-opening one, imo, especially when comparing him to Nolynyk, who, at 7'0", doesn't even average one block per game.  Giannis and KJ McDaniels would have given us better shot blocking than any of our big guys, but we are where we are.  Ugh.  I refuse to use the term 'rim protection,' btw, as it sounds hilariously dumb to me, lol.

Isn't Giannis playing the wing because he's an awful option as a PF, and he can't currently shoot a lick as a SG?

By the way, if you normalize their stats, the differences in their block numbers is really not that stark. More importantly, KO averages more rebounds than Giannis.

http://bkref.com/tiny/kspXa

Giannis can LEARN to play PF eventually, he has potential to play 4, maybe 5 positions on the court with his skillset. Kelly can play 2...and he can barely guard the guys in the post.

[GreenFaith1819]

Not worried about BOS.

ESPN had an interesting article on them recently....BOS seems to be on the right path.

http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/12541459/nba-front-office-rankings-2015

Boston's front office is ranked 7th, here.

I don't agree with all of the moves, but we seem to be on the upswing.

[bostonsportsforlife]

This thread suffers from an insane amount of hindsight bias. Danny Ainge has missed on guys like JJJ, Fab, and Giddens, but those were mid-late 20s picks. He is certainly an above average drafter, not some insane talent evaluator but he's pretty good. In terms of lottery picks, he really doesn't have anybody that I can call a bust, and he hasn't had many of those to work with. Those calling for DA's head in this thread really are being ridiculous. Once you get past the first 15-20 picks the draft is a pure crapshoot.

[Eja117]

If it makes anyone feel better DA got a recent first rounder basically for free and he's starting for us now. Ty Zeller was picked 4 spots ahead of Sully.

In that draft I'm thankful DA didn't trade up to target Thomas Robinson, or Harrison Barnes, or Jeremy Lamb, or Harkless, or Waiters, or T Ross, or Meyers Leonard, or Kendall Marshall, or Andrew Nicholson, or Evan Fournier or MKG. I think trading up for those guys would have been worse.

[vjcsmoke]

LOL - what's next, a fire DA thread?
Every franchise has some bad picks in the 1st round.  JJJ and Fab Melo were bad picks but at least we were trying to fill a need. 
I'm more upset that we didn't draft guys like Deandre Jordan, Gobert, and Nurkic when rim-protecting big man has clearly been a need for us a while now.

Anyways the bust rate in the NBA draft is very high.  You'll rarely get top tier starters in the 1st round unless you have a top 5 or top 10 pick, and even then about half of those bust.

[Beat LA]

I don't get how Giannis was the obvious choice when there were questions at the time about his age (especially in a post-Bismack draft), his eventual position in the NBA, and the quality of his competition. Calling Giannis the safer pick is pure revisionist history.

Frankly, I still wonder what Giannis' career is going to look like. Unless he can develop a consistent 15-footer, he's going to be . . . what, exactly? A rich man's Hakim Warrick? The next Jonathan Bender?

http://vorped.com/1-nba/2014-2015/player/1529/giannis-antetokounmpo/shotchart/

and what is Kelly's? A no defense 7 ft shooting guard?

You do realize that Olynyk has the same defensive rating over his career as Giannis, right?

Regardless, in a league that is accentuating more and more the concept of pace and space, it seems like Olynyk has a base skillset that should translate to a rotational role for him in the NBA. I expect him to be a decent bench big man. Considering where he was drafted, that's not [dang]ing him with faint praise.

This is where analytics come up short, imo.  It's not all about numbers.  Have you actually seen Giannis play defense?  He swatted a KD layup his rookie year, after trailing the play, that looked like that famous clip of Rodman stuffing Pippen in the 1988 playoffs, iirc.  If you do want numbers, however, try this - as a WING, Giannis is averaging 6.9 rpg and 1.1 bpg.  The last stat is the most eye-opening one, imo, especially when comparing him to Nolynyk, who, at 7'0", doesn't even average one block per game.  Giannis and KJ McDaniels would have given us better shot blocking than any of our big guys, but we are where we are.  Ugh.  I refuse to use the term 'rim protection,' btw, as it sounds hilariously dumb to me, lol.

Isn't Giannis playing the wing because he's an awful option as a PF, and he can't currently shoot a lick as a SG?

By the way, if you normalize their stats, the differences in their block numbers is really not that stark. More importantly, KO averages more rebounds than Giannis.

http://bkref.com/tiny/kspXa

In the case of those stats, I take it that you're going with the per 36, instead of the actual results, which is fine, but I can only go by what I've seen, box score or not, and Nolynyk just doesn't cut it.

[celtics2030]

o

[GratefulCs]

If it makes anyone feel better DA got a recent first rounder basically for free and he's starting for us now. Ty Zeller was picked 4 spots ahead of Sully.

In that draft I'm thankful DA didn't trade up to target Thomas Robinson, or Harrison Barnes, or Jeremy Lamb, or Harkless, or Waiters, or T Ross, or Meyers Leonard, or Kendall Marshall, or Andrew Nicholson, or Evan Fournier or MKG. I think trading up for those guys would have been worse.

This


So very much this


TP