Author Topic: My early 2015 1st round picks for the Celtics  (Read 32475 times)

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Re: My early 2015 1st round picks for the Celtics
« Reply #75 on: March 18, 2015, 08:25:59 PM »

Offline Tr1boy

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Hawes was a lottery pick, but he, much like Kamimsky, had limited upside. Can you name the last perimeter oriented big (non foreign player), who lacks athleticism and strength, and excelled in the league? Not just a role player either, but to the level you're hyping him up? Because lately the list hasn't been pretty.

Don't overstate how much the Kaminsky supporters are hyping him up. They are saying he'd be a good #15 selection, not an all-star.

Sweet-shooting PF-C who came into the draft lacking nba athleticism and strength! Here's an arbitrary sampling. Ready?

------- The 2006 guys you think of first who ruined it for everyone--------
2006: Andrea Bargnani, Adam Morrison, Oleksiy Pecherov, Steve Novak
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

--------------------------- Everyone since then -----------------------------
2007: Spencer Hawes, Nick Fazekas
2008: Kevin Love, Ryan Anderson, Ante Tomic
2009: Goran Suton
2010:
2011: Nikola Mirotic, Trey Thompkins, Jon Leuer
2012: Draymond Green,
2013: Kelly Olynyk, Grant Jarrett
2014: Doug McDermott, Nikola Jokic

How am I overstating anything? He ranked Kaminsky 9th on his list. Ahead of Turner, Oubre, Winslow, and Looney. That's not a top 15 pick, that's a top 10 pick. To make matters worse, not only would he have us passing on better talent, but Kaminsky does not fill any need whatsoever. With a different roster makeup he would potentially be a nice fit, but not with our team.

As for your list, you might want to exclude a lot of players there. You included a few SF's  and players that never had questions of strength (Love was actually overweight) or athleticism (Mirotic is NOT unathletic) to mask the argument.

draftexpress also has Kaminsky ranked 10th on their mock

Re: My early 2015 1st round picks for the Celtics
« Reply #76 on: March 18, 2015, 09:29:57 PM »

Offline The Rondo Show

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I can't imagine Turner falling that far.  I would really hope Danny trades up if he falls to 12

I do. Check out his stats for the last 5 games of the season. Not very good.  Maybe ran out of gas? Injury?

http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/myles-turner-1/gamelog/2015/

He is a nice prospect but with an old players body.  He struggles running end to end.  Not very athletic nor quick

The players that we draft need to fit in with CBS system .  Unless they are that good, CBS is not going to change around what he has built so far for the player.

None of the above. Our coach doesn't play him because he prefers Connor Lammert. He's specifically said that he prefers his experienced players and that Myles' expectations as a freshman were "unrealistic". It's every UT fan worst nightmare, and it's a big reason why Barnes will most likely be forced to resign after this season.  You shouldn't just make up that he's out of gas or has an injury.

« Last Edit: March 18, 2015, 09:44:00 PM by The Rondo Show »
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Re: My early 2015 1st round picks for the Celtics
« Reply #77 on: March 18, 2015, 10:17:53 PM »

Offline tazzmaniac

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Just read over the thread and I got some comments

1. Harrell is a good player but what is his upside? We need players who could some day end up being elite. Drafting a 21 year old 6'6 pf doesn't really have huge upside. If he's available with the Clippers pick we should take him but our pick is too early.

2. I think Kaminsky is a solid player but if he is the best player available we need to trade up. If we pick at 16 I would prefer Portis to Kaminsky but I think we need to go big either way and a good floor spacing big would help.

3. Someone compared Myles Turner to Thabeet. Turner has the chance to be a great shot blocker but he also is extremely skilled. If Thabeet had Turner's offensive game he wouldn't have been a bust.

4. I agree that WCS could drop since I doubt the Jazz, Philly, and Detroit pick a center and there should be 3 or 4 centers drafted ahead of WCS so maybe he slips. However, we will still need to trade up to at latest the 8-10 pick in order to draft him.

5. LaVert or RHJ would both be great picks with the Clippers pick.

I'm going to say the C's trade up to grab WCS, and then get LaVert or RHJ with the Clippers pick (or we trade the clippers pick and trade two of our seconds to move up and grab one of those guys).

-Turner to Thabeet comparison is good.  Just not that mobile, agile on the court.  Turner can move a little better but he has a strange running technique that imo will result in injuries sooner or later. Again he does not fit with CBS system overall, only for specific situations (Against Hibbert). But as of late we are making the opposing teams follow our lead (go small)

-  Harrell is not 6'6.  He matched up against Brice Johnson last week and he was only a tad shorter. Brice Johnson is 6'9. Harrell is 6'8

- Everyone want the Celts to move up in the draft. How easy is that? When was the last time anyone can remember a team able to move up to top 5 having a 14th pick for example? bc of the way the salary cap/structure is these days, picks are very valuable to keep/develop
Turner is a big who can block shots and step out and hit the 3. That sounds like a perfect fit for Steven's system. Turner probably won't be ready to play away but he has a ton more potential than Harrell and we need to swing for the fences in the draft because we don't need depth.

Draft Express has Harrell as 6'6.5 in shoes. (6'5 w/o shoes) He's certainly not 6'8.

I agree that we won't move into the top 5 but there have been a bunch of trades where a team moves up into the 8-12 range (Chicago moved up last year)

If Harrell is only 6'7 then thats ok still. He has a long wingspan, 8'11 reach and is explosive off the ground.   
Blake Griffin is only 6'8 with 6'11 wingspan. Faried only 6'7 with 6'11 wingspan.   

Harrell is a more explosive , intense version of Brandon Bass.  Brandon Bass has fit really well under CBS system.

We would not be grabbing Harrell to be a center but he could guard centers occasionally (like Crowder , due to his strength, won't give up position easily), depending what CBS wants to do out on the floor.   

IF Bass is not brought back, Harrell could fill in that mobile, athletic , ability to guard multiple position pf role and provide even more intensity.
I think Faried is a good comp for Harrell. But Harrell's lack of shooting would give you the same spacing problem Faried does for the Nuggets. As to the blake Griffin comparison, Blake is 6'8.5 with out shoes, Harrell is 6'5.5 without shoes. Harrell hasn't given the indication that he will ever be able to shoot like Bass.

Regardless, I don't think you draft a junior who is already what he will be long term vs a player with a higher ceiling (unless the Junior fits a need). We need the player with the higher ceiling. I don't agree that Harrell fits Steven's system either.

I'm not sure what your basing on what kind of player fits CBS system. But from what i have seen, he tends to like playing players who are tough, works extremely hard, versatile defender/guard multiple positions, able to run end to end  on multiple occasions between whistles, good bbiq.   Able to make the open jump shots is nice also

Harrell outside of ability to make jump shot on a consistent basis (he has improved though, and more willing to shoot it then in the past) meets all the other criteria I listed above.   He is also explosive and is a capable rim protector.   

So tell me, why wouldn't he fit under CBS system?  or does he not fit in with what your looking for?
To me Stevens system likes position versatility, floor spacing and ball handlers.

Harrell is an undersized 4 in the NBA. I don't think you can have him guard anything but 4's in the NBA. So I don't see any positional versatility. He isn't a very good shooter so you won't see him space the floor much and he doesn't have any perimeter ball handling skills.

Stevens likes to go small, when he goes small he usually has lineup that consist of 5 shooters or 4 shooters and one big. Harrell can't be in the 5 shooter lineups because he can't shoot, and if you are playing him as your only big, he won't be able to protect the rim like you would want in that lineup.

A good comp for why he wouldn't succeed is Thomas Robinson. 4's that can't either shoot or block shots aren't succeeding as anything more than back ups in todays NBA.

I like him Harrell just not with our first pick because he doesn't have the upside because of his lack of size and age.

I disagree with many of your points. I have watched several Louisville last and this season games and Harrell can defend more than one position. He is all over the court some games.  See the link below from 6:39. He can guard sfs and keep up even with some guards out on the perimeter. He has good lateral quickness.  He is a strong kid and also will make it tough for some centers to gain inside position. Willing to battle on the inside.

The problem with that statement is that he's doing it on the college level. Covering big college stiffs is a far cry from how that'll translate to the next level.

You seem to be all over the place with your player likes, so I can't quite figure you out. However, the one common denominator is that you seem very keen on college basketball stats/production and thinking that means it'll translate on the next level. For me, I'd much rather take the young 18-19 year old freshman with upside, rather than the 21-22 year old (like your guys Kaminsky, Harrell, etc.) with a limited ceiling.

You'd rather have Kaminsky ahead of Turner and Harrell ahead of say, Cliff Alexander, but imagine for a second what those younger players would be doing on the college level at the same age as Kaminsky and Harrell.

but those players haven't. And we don't know if they will.

I value the proof of hard work and accomplishments more than "potential". How many guys with off the charts potential ever reach it??  Russell Westbrook is the last guy I can think of that didn't accomplish much in college to become a star in the NBA.

Would you draft Perry Jones over Jae Crowder?  Jeremy Lamb over Marcus Smart?

something to think about
Those are strange comparisons.  How about these?  Would you draft Embiid over Smart?  The Greek Freak over Olynyk?  The correct answer is everyday and twice on Sunday.

For teams that have mediocre talent at best, the draft should be all about taking the best player available.  NBA readiness, system fit, etc should be tertiary considerations.  The potential for getting a star is worth the risk of a draft pick bust.  Freshman and sophomores drafted for their potential are relatively speaking much more likely to succeed in the NBA than more accomplished juniors and seniors. 

Re: My early 2015 1st round picks for the Celtics
« Reply #78 on: March 18, 2015, 10:33:51 PM »

Offline Tr1boy

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See how dangerous KO was tonight late in the game? 

Kaminsky would do the same thing for the Celts.   He could do that for another team
He is not valued by many in this forum but he is a skilled, fluid 7 ft player that can hit the open 3. If he adds strength, his game can only get better.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t1v3rRyE2iE


Re: My early 2015 1st round picks for the Celtics
« Reply #79 on: March 18, 2015, 10:36:54 PM »

Offline Tr1boy

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Just read over the thread and I got some comments

1. Harrell is a good player but what is his upside? We need players who could some day end up being elite. Drafting a 21 year old 6'6 pf doesn't really have huge upside. If he's available with the Clippers pick we should take him but our pick is too early.

2. I think Kaminsky is a solid player but if he is the best player available we need to trade up. If we pick at 16 I would prefer Portis to Kaminsky but I think we need to go big either way and a good floor spacing big would help.

3. Someone compared Myles Turner to Thabeet. Turner has the chance to be a great shot blocker but he also is extremely skilled. If Thabeet had Turner's offensive game he wouldn't have been a bust.

4. I agree that WCS could drop since I doubt the Jazz, Philly, and Detroit pick a center and there should be 3 or 4 centers drafted ahead of WCS so maybe he slips. However, we will still need to trade up to at latest the 8-10 pick in order to draft him.

5. LaVert or RHJ would both be great picks with the Clippers pick.

I'm going to say the C's trade up to grab WCS, and then get LaVert or RHJ with the Clippers pick (or we trade the clippers pick and trade two of our seconds to move up and grab one of those guys).

-Turner to Thabeet comparison is good.  Just not that mobile, agile on the court.  Turner can move a little better but he has a strange running technique that imo will result in injuries sooner or later. Again he does not fit with CBS system overall, only for specific situations (Against Hibbert). But as of late we are making the opposing teams follow our lead (go small)

-  Harrell is not 6'6.  He matched up against Brice Johnson last week and he was only a tad shorter. Brice Johnson is 6'9. Harrell is 6'8

- Everyone want the Celts to move up in the draft. How easy is that? When was the last time anyone can remember a team able to move up to top 5 having a 14th pick for example? bc of the way the salary cap/structure is these days, picks are very valuable to keep/develop
Turner is a big who can block shots and step out and hit the 3. That sounds like a perfect fit for Steven's system. Turner probably won't be ready to play away but he has a ton more potential than Harrell and we need to swing for the fences in the draft because we don't need depth.

Draft Express has Harrell as 6'6.5 in shoes. (6'5 w/o shoes) He's certainly not 6'8.

I agree that we won't move into the top 5 but there have been a bunch of trades where a team moves up into the 8-12 range (Chicago moved up last year)

If Harrell is only 6'7 then thats ok still. He has a long wingspan, 8'11 reach and is explosive off the ground.   
Blake Griffin is only 6'8 with 6'11 wingspan. Faried only 6'7 with 6'11 wingspan.   

Harrell is a more explosive , intense version of Brandon Bass.  Brandon Bass has fit really well under CBS system.

We would not be grabbing Harrell to be a center but he could guard centers occasionally (like Crowder , due to his strength, won't give up position easily), depending what CBS wants to do out on the floor.   

IF Bass is not brought back, Harrell could fill in that mobile, athletic , ability to guard multiple position pf role and provide even more intensity.
I think Faried is a good comp for Harrell. But Harrell's lack of shooting would give you the same spacing problem Faried does for the Nuggets. As to the blake Griffin comparison, Blake is 6'8.5 with out shoes, Harrell is 6'5.5 without shoes. Harrell hasn't given the indication that he will ever be able to shoot like Bass.

Regardless, I don't think you draft a junior who is already what he will be long term vs a player with a higher ceiling (unless the Junior fits a need). We need the player with the higher ceiling. I don't agree that Harrell fits Steven's system either.

I'm not sure what your basing on what kind of player fits CBS system. But from what i have seen, he tends to like playing players who are tough, works extremely hard, versatile defender/guard multiple positions, able to run end to end  on multiple occasions between whistles, good bbiq.   Able to make the open jump shots is nice also

Harrell outside of ability to make jump shot on a consistent basis (he has improved though, and more willing to shoot it then in the past) meets all the other criteria I listed above.   He is also explosive and is a capable rim protector.   

So tell me, why wouldn't he fit under CBS system?  or does he not fit in with what your looking for?
To me Stevens system likes position versatility, floor spacing and ball handlers.

Harrell is an undersized 4 in the NBA. I don't think you can have him guard anything but 4's in the NBA. So I don't see any positional versatility. He isn't a very good shooter so you won't see him space the floor much and he doesn't have any perimeter ball handling skills.

Stevens likes to go small, when he goes small he usually has lineup that consist of 5 shooters or 4 shooters and one big. Harrell can't be in the 5 shooter lineups because he can't shoot, and if you are playing him as your only big, he won't be able to protect the rim like you would want in that lineup.

A good comp for why he wouldn't succeed is Thomas Robinson. 4's that can't either shoot or block shots aren't succeeding as anything more than back ups in todays NBA.

I like him Harrell just not with our first pick because he doesn't have the upside because of his lack of size and age.

I disagree with many of your points. I have watched several Louisville last and this season games and Harrell can defend more than one position. He is all over the court some games.  See the link below from 6:39. He can guard sfs and keep up even with some guards out on the perimeter. He has good lateral quickness.  He is a strong kid and also will make it tough for some centers to gain inside position. Willing to battle on the inside.

The problem with that statement is that he's doing it on the college level. Covering big college stiffs is a far cry from how that'll translate to the next level.

You seem to be all over the place with your player likes, so I can't quite figure you out. However, the one common denominator is that you seem very keen on college basketball stats/production and thinking that means it'll translate on the next level. For me, I'd much rather take the young 18-19 year old freshman with upside, rather than the 21-22 year old (like your guys Kaminsky, Harrell, etc.) with a limited ceiling.

You'd rather have Kaminsky ahead of Turner and Harrell ahead of say, Cliff Alexander, but imagine for a second what those younger players would be doing on the college level at the same age as Kaminsky and Harrell.

but those players haven't. And we don't know if they will.

I value the proof of hard work and accomplishments more than "potential". How many guys with off the charts potential ever reach it??  Russell Westbrook is the last guy I can think of that didn't accomplish much in college to become a star in the NBA.

Would you draft Perry Jones over Jae Crowder?  Jeremy Lamb over Marcus Smart?

something to think about
Those are strange comparisons.  How about these?  Would you draft Embiid over Smart?  The Greek Freak over Olynyk?  The correct answer is everyday and twice on Sunday.

For teams that have mediocre talent at best, the draft should be all about taking the best player available.  NBA readiness, system fit, etc should be tertiary considerations.  The potential for getting a star is worth the risk of a draft pick bust.  Freshman and sophomores drafted for their potential are relatively speaking much more likely to succeed in the NBA than more accomplished juniors and seniors.

your talking about top 5-7 draft pick level freshmen. Not 12-17 range. How many of those end up reaching their potential? 

Kaminsky will be picked ahead of Turner is my prediction.  We will see what happens on draft night

Re: My early 2015 1st round picks for the Celtics
« Reply #80 on: March 18, 2015, 10:50:10 PM »

Offline Eddie20

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Just read over the thread and I got some comments

1. Harrell is a good player but what is his upside? We need players who could some day end up being elite. Drafting a 21 year old 6'6 pf doesn't really have huge upside. If he's available with the Clippers pick we should take him but our pick is too early.

2. I think Kaminsky is a solid player but if he is the best player available we need to trade up. If we pick at 16 I would prefer Portis to Kaminsky but I think we need to go big either way and a good floor spacing big would help.

3. Someone compared Myles Turner to Thabeet. Turner has the chance to be a great shot blocker but he also is extremely skilled. If Thabeet had Turner's offensive game he wouldn't have been a bust.

4. I agree that WCS could drop since I doubt the Jazz, Philly, and Detroit pick a center and there should be 3 or 4 centers drafted ahead of WCS so maybe he slips. However, we will still need to trade up to at latest the 8-10 pick in order to draft him.

5. LaVert or RHJ would both be great picks with the Clippers pick.

I'm going to say the C's trade up to grab WCS, and then get LaVert or RHJ with the Clippers pick (or we trade the clippers pick and trade two of our seconds to move up and grab one of those guys).

-Turner to Thabeet comparison is good.  Just not that mobile, agile on the court.  Turner can move a little better but he has a strange running technique that imo will result in injuries sooner or later. Again he does not fit with CBS system overall, only for specific situations (Against Hibbert). But as of late we are making the opposing teams follow our lead (go small)

-  Harrell is not 6'6.  He matched up against Brice Johnson last week and he was only a tad shorter. Brice Johnson is 6'9. Harrell is 6'8

- Everyone want the Celts to move up in the draft. How easy is that? When was the last time anyone can remember a team able to move up to top 5 having a 14th pick for example? bc of the way the salary cap/structure is these days, picks are very valuable to keep/develop
Turner is a big who can block shots and step out and hit the 3. That sounds like a perfect fit for Steven's system. Turner probably won't be ready to play away but he has a ton more potential than Harrell and we need to swing for the fences in the draft because we don't need depth.

Draft Express has Harrell as 6'6.5 in shoes. (6'5 w/o shoes) He's certainly not 6'8.

I agree that we won't move into the top 5 but there have been a bunch of trades where a team moves up into the 8-12 range (Chicago moved up last year)

If Harrell is only 6'7 then thats ok still. He has a long wingspan, 8'11 reach and is explosive off the ground.   
Blake Griffin is only 6'8 with 6'11 wingspan. Faried only 6'7 with 6'11 wingspan.   

Harrell is a more explosive , intense version of Brandon Bass.  Brandon Bass has fit really well under CBS system.

We would not be grabbing Harrell to be a center but he could guard centers occasionally (like Crowder , due to his strength, won't give up position easily), depending what CBS wants to do out on the floor.   

IF Bass is not brought back, Harrell could fill in that mobile, athletic , ability to guard multiple position pf role and provide even more intensity.
I think Faried is a good comp for Harrell. But Harrell's lack of shooting would give you the same spacing problem Faried does for the Nuggets. As to the blake Griffin comparison, Blake is 6'8.5 with out shoes, Harrell is 6'5.5 without shoes. Harrell hasn't given the indication that he will ever be able to shoot like Bass.

Regardless, I don't think you draft a junior who is already what he will be long term vs a player with a higher ceiling (unless the Junior fits a need). We need the player with the higher ceiling. I don't agree that Harrell fits Steven's system either.

I'm not sure what your basing on what kind of player fits CBS system. But from what i have seen, he tends to like playing players who are tough, works extremely hard, versatile defender/guard multiple positions, able to run end to end  on multiple occasions between whistles, good bbiq.   Able to make the open jump shots is nice also

Harrell outside of ability to make jump shot on a consistent basis (he has improved though, and more willing to shoot it then in the past) meets all the other criteria I listed above.   He is also explosive and is a capable rim protector.   

So tell me, why wouldn't he fit under CBS system?  or does he not fit in with what your looking for?
To me Stevens system likes position versatility, floor spacing and ball handlers.

Harrell is an undersized 4 in the NBA. I don't think you can have him guard anything but 4's in the NBA. So I don't see any positional versatility. He isn't a very good shooter so you won't see him space the floor much and he doesn't have any perimeter ball handling skills.

Stevens likes to go small, when he goes small he usually has lineup that consist of 5 shooters or 4 shooters and one big. Harrell can't be in the 5 shooter lineups because he can't shoot, and if you are playing him as your only big, he won't be able to protect the rim like you would want in that lineup.

A good comp for why he wouldn't succeed is Thomas Robinson. 4's that can't either shoot or block shots aren't succeeding as anything more than back ups in todays NBA.

I like him Harrell just not with our first pick because he doesn't have the upside because of his lack of size and age.

I disagree with many of your points. I have watched several Louisville last and this season games and Harrell can defend more than one position. He is all over the court some games.  See the link below from 6:39. He can guard sfs and keep up even with some guards out on the perimeter. He has good lateral quickness.  He is a strong kid and also will make it tough for some centers to gain inside position. Willing to battle on the inside.

The problem with that statement is that he's doing it on the college level. Covering big college stiffs is a far cry from how that'll translate to the next level.

You seem to be all over the place with your player likes, so I can't quite figure you out. However, the one common denominator is that you seem very keen on college basketball stats/production and thinking that means it'll translate on the next level. For me, I'd much rather take the young 18-19 year old freshman with upside, rather than the 21-22 year old (like your guys Kaminsky, Harrell, etc.) with a limited ceiling.

You'd rather have Kaminsky ahead of Turner and Harrell ahead of say, Cliff Alexander, but imagine for a second what those younger players would be doing on the college level at the same age as Kaminsky and Harrell.

but those players haven't. And we don't know if they will.

I value the proof of hard work and accomplishments more than "potential". How many guys with off the charts potential ever reach it??  Russell Westbrook is the last guy I can think of that didn't accomplish much in college to become a star in the NBA.

Would you draft Perry Jones over Jae Crowder?  Jeremy Lamb over Marcus Smart?

something to think about
Those are strange comparisons.  How about these?  Would you draft Embiid over Smart?  The Greek Freak over Olynyk?  The correct answer is everyday and twice on Sunday.

For teams that have mediocre talent at best, the draft should be all about taking the best player available.  NBA readiness, system fit, etc should be tertiary considerations.  The potential for getting a star is worth the risk of a draft pick bust.  Freshman and sophomores drafted for their potential are relatively speaking much more likely to succeed in the NBA than more accomplished juniors and seniors.

your talking about top 5-7 draft pick level freshmen. Not 12-17 range. How many of those end up reaching their potential? 

Kaminsky will be picked ahead of Turner is my prediction.  We will see what happens on draft night

I'll bet you TP's he won't. Kaminsky will have some below average numbers at the combine, while Turner has great length and wingspan. The only thing that change Turner being picked ahead is something medical.

Re: My early 2015 1st round picks for the Celtics
« Reply #81 on: March 18, 2015, 10:54:52 PM »

Offline MBunge

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Just read over the thread and I got some comments

1. Harrell is a good player but what is his upside? We need players who could some day end up being elite. Drafting a 21 year old 6'6 pf doesn't really have huge upside. If he's available with the Clippers pick we should take him but our pick is too early.

2. I think Kaminsky is a solid player but if he is the best player available we need to trade up. If we pick at 16 I would prefer Portis to Kaminsky but I think we need to go big either way and a good floor spacing big would help.

3. Someone compared Myles Turner to Thabeet. Turner has the chance to be a great shot blocker but he also is extremely skilled. If Thabeet had Turner's offensive game he wouldn't have been a bust.

4. I agree that WCS could drop since I doubt the Jazz, Philly, and Detroit pick a center and there should be 3 or 4 centers drafted ahead of WCS so maybe he slips. However, we will still need to trade up to at latest the 8-10 pick in order to draft him.

5. LaVert or RHJ would both be great picks with the Clippers pick.

I'm going to say the C's trade up to grab WCS, and then get LaVert or RHJ with the Clippers pick (or we trade the clippers pick and trade two of our seconds to move up and grab one of those guys).

-Turner to Thabeet comparison is good.  Just not that mobile, agile on the court.  Turner can move a little better but he has a strange running technique that imo will result in injuries sooner or later. Again he does not fit with CBS system overall, only for specific situations (Against Hibbert). But as of late we are making the opposing teams follow our lead (go small)

-  Harrell is not 6'6.  He matched up against Brice Johnson last week and he was only a tad shorter. Brice Johnson is 6'9. Harrell is 6'8

- Everyone want the Celts to move up in the draft. How easy is that? When was the last time anyone can remember a team able to move up to top 5 having a 14th pick for example? bc of the way the salary cap/structure is these days, picks are very valuable to keep/develop
Turner is a big who can block shots and step out and hit the 3. That sounds like a perfect fit for Steven's system. Turner probably won't be ready to play away but he has a ton more potential than Harrell and we need to swing for the fences in the draft because we don't need depth.

Draft Express has Harrell as 6'6.5 in shoes. (6'5 w/o shoes) He's certainly not 6'8.

I agree that we won't move into the top 5 but there have been a bunch of trades where a team moves up into the 8-12 range (Chicago moved up last year)

If Harrell is only 6'7 then thats ok still. He has a long wingspan, 8'11 reach and is explosive off the ground.   
Blake Griffin is only 6'8 with 6'11 wingspan. Faried only 6'7 with 6'11 wingspan.   

Harrell is a more explosive , intense version of Brandon Bass.  Brandon Bass has fit really well under CBS system.

We would not be grabbing Harrell to be a center but he could guard centers occasionally (like Crowder , due to his strength, won't give up position easily), depending what CBS wants to do out on the floor.   

IF Bass is not brought back, Harrell could fill in that mobile, athletic , ability to guard multiple position pf role and provide even more intensity.
I think Faried is a good comp for Harrell. But Harrell's lack of shooting would give you the same spacing problem Faried does for the Nuggets. As to the blake Griffin comparison, Blake is 6'8.5 with out shoes, Harrell is 6'5.5 without shoes. Harrell hasn't given the indication that he will ever be able to shoot like Bass.

Regardless, I don't think you draft a junior who is already what he will be long term vs a player with a higher ceiling (unless the Junior fits a need). We need the player with the higher ceiling. I don't agree that Harrell fits Steven's system either.

I'm not sure what your basing on what kind of player fits CBS system. But from what i have seen, he tends to like playing players who are tough, works extremely hard, versatile defender/guard multiple positions, able to run end to end  on multiple occasions between whistles, good bbiq.   Able to make the open jump shots is nice also

Harrell outside of ability to make jump shot on a consistent basis (he has improved though, and more willing to shoot it then in the past) meets all the other criteria I listed above.   He is also explosive and is a capable rim protector.   

So tell me, why wouldn't he fit under CBS system?  or does he not fit in with what your looking for?
To me Stevens system likes position versatility, floor spacing and ball handlers.

Harrell is an undersized 4 in the NBA. I don't think you can have him guard anything but 4's in the NBA. So I don't see any positional versatility. He isn't a very good shooter so you won't see him space the floor much and he doesn't have any perimeter ball handling skills.

Stevens likes to go small, when he goes small he usually has lineup that consist of 5 shooters or 4 shooters and one big. Harrell can't be in the 5 shooter lineups because he can't shoot, and if you are playing him as your only big, he won't be able to protect the rim like you would want in that lineup.

A good comp for why he wouldn't succeed is Thomas Robinson. 4's that can't either shoot or block shots aren't succeeding as anything more than back ups in todays NBA.

I like him Harrell just not with our first pick because he doesn't have the upside because of his lack of size and age.

I disagree with many of your points. I have watched several Louisville last and this season games and Harrell can defend more than one position. He is all over the court some games.  See the link below from 6:39. He can guard sfs and keep up even with some guards out on the perimeter. He has good lateral quickness.  He is a strong kid and also will make it tough for some centers to gain inside position. Willing to battle on the inside.

The problem with that statement is that he's doing it on the college level. Covering big college stiffs is a far cry from how that'll translate to the next level.

You seem to be all over the place with your player likes, so I can't quite figure you out. However, the one common denominator is that you seem very keen on college basketball stats/production and thinking that means it'll translate on the next level. For me, I'd much rather take the young 18-19 year old freshman with upside, rather than the 21-22 year old (like your guys Kaminsky, Harrell, etc.) with a limited ceiling.

You'd rather have Kaminsky ahead of Turner and Harrell ahead of say, Cliff Alexander, but imagine for a second what those younger players would be doing on the college level at the same age as Kaminsky and Harrell.

but those players haven't. And we don't know if they will.

I value the proof of hard work and accomplishments more than "potential". How many guys with off the charts potential ever reach it??  Russell Westbrook is the last guy I can think of that didn't accomplish much in college to become a star in the NBA.

Would you draft Perry Jones over Jae Crowder?  Jeremy Lamb over Marcus Smart?

something to think about
Those are strange comparisons.  How about these?  Would you draft Embiid over Smart?  The Greek Freak over Olynyk?  The correct answer is everyday and twice on Sunday.

For teams that have mediocre talent at best, the draft should be all about taking the best player available.  NBA readiness, system fit, etc should be tertiary considerations.  The potential for getting a star is worth the risk of a draft pick bust.  Freshman and sophomores drafted for their potential are relatively speaking much more likely to succeed in the NBA than more accomplished juniors and seniors.

That's the sort of thinking that led to freshman Michael Kidd-Gilchrist being selected over junior Damien Lillard.  Or freshman Tyreke Evans and sophomore Jonny Flynn over junior Stephan Curry.

Mike
« Last Edit: March 18, 2015, 10:59:54 PM by MBunge »

Re: My early 2015 1st round picks for the Celtics
« Reply #82 on: March 18, 2015, 11:03:13 PM »

Offline Eddie20

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Hawes was a lottery pick, but he, much like Kamimsky, had limited upside. Can you name the last perimeter oriented big (non foreign player), who lacks athleticism and strength, and excelled in the league? Not just a role player either, but to the level you're hyping him up? Because lately the list hasn't been pretty.

Don't overstate how much the Kaminsky supporters are hyping him up. They are saying he'd be a good #15 selection, not an all-star.

Sweet-shooting PF-C who came into the draft lacking nba athleticism and strength! Here's an arbitrary sampling. Ready?

------- The 2006 guys you think of first who ruined it for everyone--------
2006: Andrea Bargnani, Adam Morrison, Oleksiy Pecherov, Steve Novak
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

--------------------------- Everyone since then -----------------------------
2007: Spencer Hawes, Nick Fazekas
2008: Kevin Love, Ryan Anderson, Ante Tomic
2009: Goran Suton
2010:
2011: Nikola Mirotic, Trey Thompkins, Jon Leuer
2012: Draymond Green,
2013: Kelly Olynyk, Grant Jarrett
2014: Doug McDermott, Nikola Jokic

How am I overstating anything? He ranked Kaminsky 9th on his list. Ahead of Turner, Oubre, Winslow, and Looney. That's not a top 15 pick, that's a top 10 pick. To make matters worse, not only would he have us passing on better talent, but Kaminsky does not fill any need whatsoever. With a different roster makeup he would potentially be a nice fit, but not with our team.

As for your list, you might want to exclude a lot of players there. You included a few SF's  and players that never had questions of strength (Love was actually overweight) or athleticism (Mirotic is NOT unathletic) to mask the argument.

draftexpress also has Kaminsky ranked 10th on their mock

I thought this was interesting.

http://www.slcdunk.com/nba-draft/2015/3/18/8252377/nba-draft-2015-consensus-mock-1-0

Quote
So far this season the ConMoc has a total data set of 890 different player ranks, and 17 different reputable drafts in the spread sheet.


Consensus ranks on the players we've been discussing:

(your guys/upper class-men)
Kaminsky 14
Harrell 15

(younger/higher ceiling guys)
Looney 12
Turner 7
Winslow 8
Oubre 11

Re: My early 2015 1st round picks for the Celtics
« Reply #83 on: March 18, 2015, 11:06:15 PM »

Offline Eddie20

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Just read over the thread and I got some comments

1. Harrell is a good player but what is his upside? We need players who could some day end up being elite. Drafting a 21 year old 6'6 pf doesn't really have huge upside. If he's available with the Clippers pick we should take him but our pick is too early.

2. I think Kaminsky is a solid player but if he is the best player available we need to trade up. If we pick at 16 I would prefer Portis to Kaminsky but I think we need to go big either way and a good floor spacing big would help.

3. Someone compared Myles Turner to Thabeet. Turner has the chance to be a great shot blocker but he also is extremely skilled. If Thabeet had Turner's offensive game he wouldn't have been a bust.

4. I agree that WCS could drop since I doubt the Jazz, Philly, and Detroit pick a center and there should be 3 or 4 centers drafted ahead of WCS so maybe he slips. However, we will still need to trade up to at latest the 8-10 pick in order to draft him.

5. LaVert or RHJ would both be great picks with the Clippers pick.

I'm going to say the C's trade up to grab WCS, and then get LaVert or RHJ with the Clippers pick (or we trade the clippers pick and trade two of our seconds to move up and grab one of those guys).

-Turner to Thabeet comparison is good.  Just not that mobile, agile on the court.  Turner can move a little better but he has a strange running technique that imo will result in injuries sooner or later. Again he does not fit with CBS system overall, only for specific situations (Against Hibbert). But as of late we are making the opposing teams follow our lead (go small)

-  Harrell is not 6'6.  He matched up against Brice Johnson last week and he was only a tad shorter. Brice Johnson is 6'9. Harrell is 6'8

- Everyone want the Celts to move up in the draft. How easy is that? When was the last time anyone can remember a team able to move up to top 5 having a 14th pick for example? bc of the way the salary cap/structure is these days, picks are very valuable to keep/develop
Turner is a big who can block shots and step out and hit the 3. That sounds like a perfect fit for Steven's system. Turner probably won't be ready to play away but he has a ton more potential than Harrell and we need to swing for the fences in the draft because we don't need depth.

Draft Express has Harrell as 6'6.5 in shoes. (6'5 w/o shoes) He's certainly not 6'8.

I agree that we won't move into the top 5 but there have been a bunch of trades where a team moves up into the 8-12 range (Chicago moved up last year)

If Harrell is only 6'7 then thats ok still. He has a long wingspan, 8'11 reach and is explosive off the ground.   
Blake Griffin is only 6'8 with 6'11 wingspan. Faried only 6'7 with 6'11 wingspan.   

Harrell is a more explosive , intense version of Brandon Bass.  Brandon Bass has fit really well under CBS system.

We would not be grabbing Harrell to be a center but he could guard centers occasionally (like Crowder , due to his strength, won't give up position easily), depending what CBS wants to do out on the floor.   

IF Bass is not brought back, Harrell could fill in that mobile, athletic , ability to guard multiple position pf role and provide even more intensity.
I think Faried is a good comp for Harrell. But Harrell's lack of shooting would give you the same spacing problem Faried does for the Nuggets. As to the blake Griffin comparison, Blake is 6'8.5 with out shoes, Harrell is 6'5.5 without shoes. Harrell hasn't given the indication that he will ever be able to shoot like Bass.

Regardless, I don't think you draft a junior who is already what he will be long term vs a player with a higher ceiling (unless the Junior fits a need). We need the player with the higher ceiling. I don't agree that Harrell fits Steven's system either.

I'm not sure what your basing on what kind of player fits CBS system. But from what i have seen, he tends to like playing players who are tough, works extremely hard, versatile defender/guard multiple positions, able to run end to end  on multiple occasions between whistles, good bbiq.   Able to make the open jump shots is nice also

Harrell outside of ability to make jump shot on a consistent basis (he has improved though, and more willing to shoot it then in the past) meets all the other criteria I listed above.   He is also explosive and is a capable rim protector.   

So tell me, why wouldn't he fit under CBS system?  or does he not fit in with what your looking for?
To me Stevens system likes position versatility, floor spacing and ball handlers.

Harrell is an undersized 4 in the NBA. I don't think you can have him guard anything but 4's in the NBA. So I don't see any positional versatility. He isn't a very good shooter so you won't see him space the floor much and he doesn't have any perimeter ball handling skills.

Stevens likes to go small, when he goes small he usually has lineup that consist of 5 shooters or 4 shooters and one big. Harrell can't be in the 5 shooter lineups because he can't shoot, and if you are playing him as your only big, he won't be able to protect the rim like you would want in that lineup.

A good comp for why he wouldn't succeed is Thomas Robinson. 4's that can't either shoot or block shots aren't succeeding as anything more than back ups in todays NBA.

I like him Harrell just not with our first pick because he doesn't have the upside because of his lack of size and age.

I disagree with many of your points. I have watched several Louisville last and this season games and Harrell can defend more than one position. He is all over the court some games.  See the link below from 6:39. He can guard sfs and keep up even with some guards out on the perimeter. He has good lateral quickness.  He is a strong kid and also will make it tough for some centers to gain inside position. Willing to battle on the inside.

The problem with that statement is that he's doing it on the college level. Covering big college stiffs is a far cry from how that'll translate to the next level.

You seem to be all over the place with your player likes, so I can't quite figure you out. However, the one common denominator is that you seem very keen on college basketball stats/production and thinking that means it'll translate on the next level. For me, I'd much rather take the young 18-19 year old freshman with upside, rather than the 21-22 year old (like your guys Kaminsky, Harrell, etc.) with a limited ceiling.

You'd rather have Kaminsky ahead of Turner and Harrell ahead of say, Cliff Alexander, but imagine for a second what those younger players would be doing on the college level at the same age as Kaminsky and Harrell.

but those players haven't. And we don't know if they will.

I value the proof of hard work and accomplishments more than "potential". How many guys with off the charts potential ever reach it??  Russell Westbrook is the last guy I can think of that didn't accomplish much in college to become a star in the NBA.

Would you draft Perry Jones over Jae Crowder?  Jeremy Lamb over Marcus Smart?

something to think about
Those are strange comparisons.  How about these?  Would you draft Embiid over Smart?  The Greek Freak over Olynyk?  The correct answer is everyday and twice on Sunday.

For teams that have mediocre talent at best, the draft should be all about taking the best player available.  NBA readiness, system fit, etc should be tertiary considerations.  The potential for getting a star is worth the risk of a draft pick bust.  Freshman and sophomores drafted for their potential are relatively speaking much more likely to succeed in the NBA than more accomplished juniors and seniors.

That's the sort of thinking that led to freshman Michael Kidd-Gilchrist being selected over junior Damien Lillard.  Or freshman Tyreke Evans and sophomore Jonny Flynn over junior Stephan Curry.

Mike

No, not exactly. Don't you find it ironic that both the players you mentioned (Lillard and Curry) played in smaller schools against weaker competition?

Re: My early 2015 1st round picks for the Celtics
« Reply #84 on: March 18, 2015, 11:09:39 PM »

Offline jonaslopes

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Just read over the thread and I got some comments

1. Harrell is a good player but what is his upside? We need players who could some day end up being elite. Drafting a 21 year old 6'6 pf doesn't really have huge upside. If he's available with the Clippers pick we should take him but our pick is too early.

2. I think Kaminsky is a solid player but if he is the best player available we need to trade up. If we pick at 16 I would prefer Portis to Kaminsky but I think we need to go big either way and a good floor spacing big would help.

3. Someone compared Myles Turner to Thabeet. Turner has the chance to be a great shot blocker but he also is extremely skilled. If Thabeet had Turner's offensive game he wouldn't have been a bust.

4. I agree that WCS could drop since I doubt the Jazz, Philly, and Detroit pick a center and there should be 3 or 4 centers drafted ahead of WCS so maybe he slips. However, we will still need to trade up to at latest the 8-10 pick in order to draft him.

5. LaVert or RHJ would both be great picks with the Clippers pick.

I'm going to say the C's trade up to grab WCS, and then get LaVert or RHJ with the Clippers pick (or we trade the clippers pick and trade two of our seconds to move up and grab one of those guys).

-Turner to Thabeet comparison is good.  Just not that mobile, agile on the court.  Turner can move a little better but he has a strange running technique that imo will result in injuries sooner or later. Again he does not fit with CBS system overall, only for specific situations (Against Hibbert). But as of late we are making the opposing teams follow our lead (go small)

-  Harrell is not 6'6.  He matched up against Brice Johnson last week and he was only a tad shorter. Brice Johnson is 6'9. Harrell is 6'8

- Everyone want the Celts to move up in the draft. How easy is that? When was the last time anyone can remember a team able to move up to top 5 having a 14th pick for example? bc of the way the salary cap/structure is these days, picks are very valuable to keep/develop
Turner is a big who can block shots and step out and hit the 3. That sounds like a perfect fit for Steven's system. Turner probably won't be ready to play away but he has a ton more potential than Harrell and we need to swing for the fences in the draft because we don't need depth.

Draft Express has Harrell as 6'6.5 in shoes. (6'5 w/o shoes) He's certainly not 6'8.

I agree that we won't move into the top 5 but there have been a bunch of trades where a team moves up into the 8-12 range (Chicago moved up last year)

If Harrell is only 6'7 then thats ok still. He has a long wingspan, 8'11 reach and is explosive off the ground.   
Blake Griffin is only 6'8 with 6'11 wingspan. Faried only 6'7 with 6'11 wingspan.   

Harrell is a more explosive , intense version of Brandon Bass.  Brandon Bass has fit really well under CBS system.

We would not be grabbing Harrell to be a center but he could guard centers occasionally (like Crowder , due to his strength, won't give up position easily), depending what CBS wants to do out on the floor.   

IF Bass is not brought back, Harrell could fill in that mobile, athletic , ability to guard multiple position pf role and provide even more intensity.
I think Faried is a good comp for Harrell. But Harrell's lack of shooting would give you the same spacing problem Faried does for the Nuggets. As to the blake Griffin comparison, Blake is 6'8.5 with out shoes, Harrell is 6'5.5 without shoes. Harrell hasn't given the indication that he will ever be able to shoot like Bass.

Regardless, I don't think you draft a junior who is already what he will be long term vs a player with a higher ceiling (unless the Junior fits a need). We need the player with the higher ceiling. I don't agree that Harrell fits Steven's system either.

I'm not sure what your basing on what kind of player fits CBS system. But from what i have seen, he tends to like playing players who are tough, works extremely hard, versatile defender/guard multiple positions, able to run end to end  on multiple occasions between whistles, good bbiq.   Able to make the open jump shots is nice also

Harrell outside of ability to make jump shot on a consistent basis (he has improved though, and more willing to shoot it then in the past) meets all the other criteria I listed above.   He is also explosive and is a capable rim protector.   

So tell me, why wouldn't he fit under CBS system?  or does he not fit in with what your looking for?
To me Stevens system likes position versatility, floor spacing and ball handlers.

Harrell is an undersized 4 in the NBA. I don't think you can have him guard anything but 4's in the NBA. So I don't see any positional versatility. He isn't a very good shooter so you won't see him space the floor much and he doesn't have any perimeter ball handling skills.

Stevens likes to go small, when he goes small he usually has lineup that consist of 5 shooters or 4 shooters and one big. Harrell can't be in the 5 shooter lineups because he can't shoot, and if you are playing him as your only big, he won't be able to protect the rim like you would want in that lineup.

A good comp for why he wouldn't succeed is Thomas Robinson. 4's that can't either shoot or block shots aren't succeeding as anything more than back ups in todays NBA.

I like him Harrell just not with our first pick because he doesn't have the upside because of his lack of size and age.

I disagree with many of your points. I have watched several Louisville last and this season games and Harrell can defend more than one position. He is all over the court some games.  See the link below from 6:39. He can guard sfs and keep up even with some guards out on the perimeter. He has good lateral quickness.  He is a strong kid and also will make it tough for some centers to gain inside position. Willing to battle on the inside.

The problem with that statement is that he's doing it on the college level. Covering big college stiffs is a far cry from how that'll translate to the next level.

You seem to be all over the place with your player likes, so I can't quite figure you out. However, the one common denominator is that you seem very keen on college basketball stats/production and thinking that means it'll translate on the next level. For me, I'd much rather take the young 18-19 year old freshman with upside, rather than the 21-22 year old (like your guys Kaminsky, Harrell, etc.) with a limited ceiling.

You'd rather have Kaminsky ahead of Turner and Harrell ahead of say, Cliff Alexander, but imagine for a second what those younger players would be doing on the college level at the same age as Kaminsky and Harrell.

but those players haven't. And we don't know if they will.

I value the proof of hard work and accomplishments more than "potential". How many guys with off the charts potential ever reach it??  Russell Westbrook is the last guy I can think of that didn't accomplish much in college to become a star in the NBA.

Would you draft Perry Jones over Jae Crowder?  Jeremy Lamb over Marcus Smart?

something to think about
Those are strange comparisons.  How about these?  Would you draft Embiid over Smart?  The Greek Freak over Olynyk?  The correct answer is everyday and twice on Sunday.

For teams that have mediocre talent at best, the draft should be all about taking the best player available.  NBA readiness, system fit, etc should be tertiary considerations.  The potential for getting a star is worth the risk of a draft pick bust.  Freshman and sophomores drafted for their potential are relatively speaking much more likely to succeed in the NBA than more accomplished juniors and seniors.

That's the sort of thinking that led to freshman Michael Kidd-Gilchrist being selected over junior Damien Lillard.  Or freshman Tyreke Evans and sophomore Jonny Flynn over junior Stephan Curry.

Mike

Great post!
It's nice seeing him get exposed as overrated after having argued with fellow fans for years that he was overrated.. but I don't hate him. I'm looking forward to seeing him [...] bounce around to a couple more teams... eventually come back to Boston[...] and helps us as a role player until he runs himself out of the league.
LarBrd33 on Rondo

Re: My early 2015 1st round picks for the Celtics
« Reply #85 on: March 18, 2015, 11:25:24 PM »

Offline tazzmaniac

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Just read over the thread and I got some comments

1. Harrell is a good player but what is his upside? We need players who could some day end up being elite. Drafting a 21 year old 6'6 pf doesn't really have huge upside. If he's available with the Clippers pick we should take him but our pick is too early.

2. I think Kaminsky is a solid player but if he is the best player available we need to trade up. If we pick at 16 I would prefer Portis to Kaminsky but I think we need to go big either way and a good floor spacing big would help.

3. Someone compared Myles Turner to Thabeet. Turner has the chance to be a great shot blocker but he also is extremely skilled. If Thabeet had Turner's offensive game he wouldn't have been a bust.

4. I agree that WCS could drop since I doubt the Jazz, Philly, and Detroit pick a center and there should be 3 or 4 centers drafted ahead of WCS so maybe he slips. However, we will still need to trade up to at latest the 8-10 pick in order to draft him.

5. LaVert or RHJ would both be great picks with the Clippers pick.

I'm going to say the C's trade up to grab WCS, and then get LaVert or RHJ with the Clippers pick (or we trade the clippers pick and trade two of our seconds to move up and grab one of those guys).

-Turner to Thabeet comparison is good.  Just not that mobile, agile on the court.  Turner can move a little better but he has a strange running technique that imo will result in injuries sooner or later. Again he does not fit with CBS system overall, only for specific situations (Against Hibbert). But as of late we are making the opposing teams follow our lead (go small)

-  Harrell is not 6'6.  He matched up against Brice Johnson last week and he was only a tad shorter. Brice Johnson is 6'9. Harrell is 6'8

- Everyone want the Celts to move up in the draft. How easy is that? When was the last time anyone can remember a team able to move up to top 5 having a 14th pick for example? bc of the way the salary cap/structure is these days, picks are very valuable to keep/develop
Turner is a big who can block shots and step out and hit the 3. That sounds like a perfect fit for Steven's system. Turner probably won't be ready to play away but he has a ton more potential than Harrell and we need to swing for the fences in the draft because we don't need depth.

Draft Express has Harrell as 6'6.5 in shoes. (6'5 w/o shoes) He's certainly not 6'8.

I agree that we won't move into the top 5 but there have been a bunch of trades where a team moves up into the 8-12 range (Chicago moved up last year)

If Harrell is only 6'7 then thats ok still. He has a long wingspan, 8'11 reach and is explosive off the ground.   
Blake Griffin is only 6'8 with 6'11 wingspan. Faried only 6'7 with 6'11 wingspan.   

Harrell is a more explosive , intense version of Brandon Bass.  Brandon Bass has fit really well under CBS system.

We would not be grabbing Harrell to be a center but he could guard centers occasionally (like Crowder , due to his strength, won't give up position easily), depending what CBS wants to do out on the floor.   

IF Bass is not brought back, Harrell could fill in that mobile, athletic , ability to guard multiple position pf role and provide even more intensity.
I think Faried is a good comp for Harrell. But Harrell's lack of shooting would give you the same spacing problem Faried does for the Nuggets. As to the blake Griffin comparison, Blake is 6'8.5 with out shoes, Harrell is 6'5.5 without shoes. Harrell hasn't given the indication that he will ever be able to shoot like Bass.

Regardless, I don't think you draft a junior who is already what he will be long term vs a player with a higher ceiling (unless the Junior fits a need). We need the player with the higher ceiling. I don't agree that Harrell fits Steven's system either.

I'm not sure what your basing on what kind of player fits CBS system. But from what i have seen, he tends to like playing players who are tough, works extremely hard, versatile defender/guard multiple positions, able to run end to end  on multiple occasions between whistles, good bbiq.   Able to make the open jump shots is nice also

Harrell outside of ability to make jump shot on a consistent basis (he has improved though, and more willing to shoot it then in the past) meets all the other criteria I listed above.   He is also explosive and is a capable rim protector.   

So tell me, why wouldn't he fit under CBS system?  or does he not fit in with what your looking for?
To me Stevens system likes position versatility, floor spacing and ball handlers.

Harrell is an undersized 4 in the NBA. I don't think you can have him guard anything but 4's in the NBA. So I don't see any positional versatility. He isn't a very good shooter so you won't see him space the floor much and he doesn't have any perimeter ball handling skills.

Stevens likes to go small, when he goes small he usually has lineup that consist of 5 shooters or 4 shooters and one big. Harrell can't be in the 5 shooter lineups because he can't shoot, and if you are playing him as your only big, he won't be able to protect the rim like you would want in that lineup.

A good comp for why he wouldn't succeed is Thomas Robinson. 4's that can't either shoot or block shots aren't succeeding as anything more than back ups in todays NBA.

I like him Harrell just not with our first pick because he doesn't have the upside because of his lack of size and age.

I disagree with many of your points. I have watched several Louisville last and this season games and Harrell can defend more than one position. He is all over the court some games.  See the link below from 6:39. He can guard sfs and keep up even with some guards out on the perimeter. He has good lateral quickness.  He is a strong kid and also will make it tough for some centers to gain inside position. Willing to battle on the inside.

The problem with that statement is that he's doing it on the college level. Covering big college stiffs is a far cry from how that'll translate to the next level.

You seem to be all over the place with your player likes, so I can't quite figure you out. However, the one common denominator is that you seem very keen on college basketball stats/production and thinking that means it'll translate on the next level. For me, I'd much rather take the young 18-19 year old freshman with upside, rather than the 21-22 year old (like your guys Kaminsky, Harrell, etc.) with a limited ceiling.

You'd rather have Kaminsky ahead of Turner and Harrell ahead of say, Cliff Alexander, but imagine for a second what those younger players would be doing on the college level at the same age as Kaminsky and Harrell.

but those players haven't. And we don't know if they will.

I value the proof of hard work and accomplishments more than "potential". How many guys with off the charts potential ever reach it??  Russell Westbrook is the last guy I can think of that didn't accomplish much in college to become a star in the NBA.

Would you draft Perry Jones over Jae Crowder?  Jeremy Lamb over Marcus Smart?

something to think about
Those are strange comparisons.  How about these?  Would you draft Embiid over Smart?  The Greek Freak over Olynyk?  The correct answer is everyday and twice on Sunday.

For teams that have mediocre talent at best, the draft should be all about taking the best player available.  NBA readiness, system fit, etc should be tertiary considerations.  The potential for getting a star is worth the risk of a draft pick bust.  Freshman and sophomores drafted for their potential are relatively speaking much more likely to succeed in the NBA than more accomplished juniors and seniors.

your talking about top 5-7 draft pick level freshmen. Not 12-17 range. How many of those end up reaching their potential? 

Kaminsky will be picked ahead of Turner is my prediction.  We will see what happens on draft night
You compared Smart (6th pick) with Lamb (12th pick).  KO and the Greek Freak were picked 13th and 15th.  Picks in the 12-17 range are obviously a lot less successful but that doesn't mean you should settle for mediocre upside to avoid a bust.  Go for the potential if it is available.  There is plenty of proven mediocre NBA talent that can be acquired via trade or free agency.  If you don't think there is good value at 12-17, you can always try to trade up or trade down. 

Re: My early 2015 1st round picks for the Celtics
« Reply #86 on: March 18, 2015, 11:54:31 PM »

Offline tazzmaniac

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Just read over the thread and I got some comments

1. Harrell is a good player but what is his upside? We need players who could some day end up being elite. Drafting a 21 year old 6'6 pf doesn't really have huge upside. If he's available with the Clippers pick we should take him but our pick is too early.

2. I think Kaminsky is a solid player but if he is the best player available we need to trade up. If we pick at 16 I would prefer Portis to Kaminsky but I think we need to go big either way and a good floor spacing big would help.

3. Someone compared Myles Turner to Thabeet. Turner has the chance to be a great shot blocker but he also is extremely skilled. If Thabeet had Turner's offensive game he wouldn't have been a bust.

4. I agree that WCS could drop since I doubt the Jazz, Philly, and Detroit pick a center and there should be 3 or 4 centers drafted ahead of WCS so maybe he slips. However, we will still need to trade up to at latest the 8-10 pick in order to draft him.

5. LaVert or RHJ would both be great picks with the Clippers pick.

I'm going to say the C's trade up to grab WCS, and then get LaVert or RHJ with the Clippers pick (or we trade the clippers pick and trade two of our seconds to move up and grab one of those guys).

-Turner to Thabeet comparison is good.  Just not that mobile, agile on the court.  Turner can move a little better but he has a strange running technique that imo will result in injuries sooner or later. Again he does not fit with CBS system overall, only for specific situations (Against Hibbert). But as of late we are making the opposing teams follow our lead (go small)

-  Harrell is not 6'6.  He matched up against Brice Johnson last week and he was only a tad shorter. Brice Johnson is 6'9. Harrell is 6'8

- Everyone want the Celts to move up in the draft. How easy is that? When was the last time anyone can remember a team able to move up to top 5 having a 14th pick for example? bc of the way the salary cap/structure is these days, picks are very valuable to keep/develop
Turner is a big who can block shots and step out and hit the 3. That sounds like a perfect fit for Steven's system. Turner probably won't be ready to play away but he has a ton more potential than Harrell and we need to swing for the fences in the draft because we don't need depth.

Draft Express has Harrell as 6'6.5 in shoes. (6'5 w/o shoes) He's certainly not 6'8.

I agree that we won't move into the top 5 but there have been a bunch of trades where a team moves up into the 8-12 range (Chicago moved up last year)

If Harrell is only 6'7 then thats ok still. He has a long wingspan, 8'11 reach and is explosive off the ground.   
Blake Griffin is only 6'8 with 6'11 wingspan. Faried only 6'7 with 6'11 wingspan.   

Harrell is a more explosive , intense version of Brandon Bass.  Brandon Bass has fit really well under CBS system.

We would not be grabbing Harrell to be a center but he could guard centers occasionally (like Crowder , due to his strength, won't give up position easily), depending what CBS wants to do out on the floor.   

IF Bass is not brought back, Harrell could fill in that mobile, athletic , ability to guard multiple position pf role and provide even more intensity.
I think Faried is a good comp for Harrell. But Harrell's lack of shooting would give you the same spacing problem Faried does for the Nuggets. As to the blake Griffin comparison, Blake is 6'8.5 with out shoes, Harrell is 6'5.5 without shoes. Harrell hasn't given the indication that he will ever be able to shoot like Bass.

Regardless, I don't think you draft a junior who is already what he will be long term vs a player with a higher ceiling (unless the Junior fits a need). We need the player with the higher ceiling. I don't agree that Harrell fits Steven's system either.

I'm not sure what your basing on what kind of player fits CBS system. But from what i have seen, he tends to like playing players who are tough, works extremely hard, versatile defender/guard multiple positions, able to run end to end  on multiple occasions between whistles, good bbiq.   Able to make the open jump shots is nice also

Harrell outside of ability to make jump shot on a consistent basis (he has improved though, and more willing to shoot it then in the past) meets all the other criteria I listed above.   He is also explosive and is a capable rim protector.   

So tell me, why wouldn't he fit under CBS system?  or does he not fit in with what your looking for?
To me Stevens system likes position versatility, floor spacing and ball handlers.

Harrell is an undersized 4 in the NBA. I don't think you can have him guard anything but 4's in the NBA. So I don't see any positional versatility. He isn't a very good shooter so you won't see him space the floor much and he doesn't have any perimeter ball handling skills.

Stevens likes to go small, when he goes small he usually has lineup that consist of 5 shooters or 4 shooters and one big. Harrell can't be in the 5 shooter lineups because he can't shoot, and if you are playing him as your only big, he won't be able to protect the rim like you would want in that lineup.

A good comp for why he wouldn't succeed is Thomas Robinson. 4's that can't either shoot or block shots aren't succeeding as anything more than back ups in todays NBA.

I like him Harrell just not with our first pick because he doesn't have the upside because of his lack of size and age.

I disagree with many of your points. I have watched several Louisville last and this season games and Harrell can defend more than one position. He is all over the court some games.  See the link below from 6:39. He can guard sfs and keep up even with some guards out on the perimeter. He has good lateral quickness.  He is a strong kid and also will make it tough for some centers to gain inside position. Willing to battle on the inside.

The problem with that statement is that he's doing it on the college level. Covering big college stiffs is a far cry from how that'll translate to the next level.

You seem to be all over the place with your player likes, so I can't quite figure you out. However, the one common denominator is that you seem very keen on college basketball stats/production and thinking that means it'll translate on the next level. For me, I'd much rather take the young 18-19 year old freshman with upside, rather than the 21-22 year old (like your guys Kaminsky, Harrell, etc.) with a limited ceiling.

You'd rather have Kaminsky ahead of Turner and Harrell ahead of say, Cliff Alexander, but imagine for a second what those younger players would be doing on the college level at the same age as Kaminsky and Harrell.

but those players haven't. And we don't know if they will.

I value the proof of hard work and accomplishments more than "potential". How many guys with off the charts potential ever reach it??  Russell Westbrook is the last guy I can think of that didn't accomplish much in college to become a star in the NBA.

Would you draft Perry Jones over Jae Crowder?  Jeremy Lamb over Marcus Smart?

something to think about
Those are strange comparisons.  How about these?  Would you draft Embiid over Smart?  The Greek Freak over Olynyk?  The correct answer is everyday and twice on Sunday.

For teams that have mediocre talent at best, the draft should be all about taking the best player available.  NBA readiness, system fit, etc should be tertiary considerations.  The potential for getting a star is worth the risk of a draft pick bust.  Freshman and sophomores drafted for their potential are relatively speaking much more likely to succeed in the NBA than more accomplished juniors and seniors.

That's the sort of thinking that led to freshman Michael Kidd-Gilchrist being selected over junior Damien Lillard.  Or freshman Tyreke Evans and sophomore Jonny Flynn over junior Stephan Curry.

Mike

No, not exactly. Don't you find it ironic that both the players you mentioned (Lillard and Curry) played in smaller schools against weaker competition?
TP.  If Lillard and Curry had played at larger schools, they'd have gone to the NBA as sophomores or even freshman.  Even so Lillard and Curry were selected 6th and 7th so at least two teams saw their potential.  Evans and Gilchrist are still starters in the league so its not like they busted. 

Re: My early 2015 1st round picks for the Celtics
« Reply #87 on: March 19, 2015, 03:42:54 AM »

Offline Sixth Man

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See how dangerous KO was tonight late in the game? 

Kaminsky would do the same thing for the Celts.   He could do that for another team
He is not valued by many in this forum but he is a skilled, fluid 7 ft player that can hit the open 3. If he adds strength, his game can only get better.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t1v3rRyE2iE

Not sure we'd draft Kaminsky given that we already have KO and JS, but the thing I most like about him is that he is really, really skilled in low-post offense.  I suspect he'll be able to score around the rim in the NBA simply because his skill set is so varied and he is pretty crafty down low. 

Re: My early 2015 1st round picks for the Celtics
« Reply #88 on: March 19, 2015, 07:28:10 AM »

Offline HomerSapien

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Just read over the thread and I got some comments

1. Harrell is a good player but what is his upside? We need players who could some day end up being elite. Drafting a 21 year old 6'6 pf doesn't really have huge upside. If he's available with the Clippers pick we should take him but our pick is too early.

2. I think Kaminsky is a solid player but if he is the best player available we need to trade up. If we pick at 16 I would prefer Portis to Kaminsky but I think we need to go big either way and a good floor spacing big would help.

3. Someone compared Myles Turner to Thabeet. Turner has the chance to be a great shot blocker but he also is extremely skilled. If Thabeet had Turner's offensive game he wouldn't have been a bust.

4. I agree that WCS could drop since I doubt the Jazz, Philly, and Detroit pick a center and there should be 3 or 4 centers drafted ahead of WCS so maybe he slips. However, we will still need to trade up to at latest the 8-10 pick in order to draft him.

5. LaVert or RHJ would both be great picks with the Clippers pick.

I'm going to say the C's trade up to grab WCS, and then get LaVert or RHJ with the Clippers pick (or we trade the clippers pick and trade two of our seconds to move up and grab one of those guys).

-Turner to Thabeet comparison is good.  Just not that mobile, agile on the court.  Turner can move a little better but he has a strange running technique that imo will result in injuries sooner or later. Again he does not fit with CBS system overall, only for specific situations (Against Hibbert). But as of late we are making the opposing teams follow our lead (go small)

-  Harrell is not 6'6.  He matched up against Brice Johnson last week and he was only a tad shorter. Brice Johnson is 6'9. Harrell is 6'8

- Everyone want the Celts to move up in the draft. How easy is that? When was the last time anyone can remember a team able to move up to top 5 having a 14th pick for example? bc of the way the salary cap/structure is these days, picks are very valuable to keep/develop
Turner is a big who can block shots and step out and hit the 3. That sounds like a perfect fit for Steven's system. Turner probably won't be ready to play away but he has a ton more potential than Harrell and we need to swing for the fences in the draft because we don't need depth.

Draft Express has Harrell as 6'6.5 in shoes. (6'5 w/o shoes) He's certainly not 6'8.

I agree that we won't move into the top 5 but there have been a bunch of trades where a team moves up into the 8-12 range (Chicago moved up last year)

If Harrell is only 6'7 then thats ok still. He has a long wingspan, 8'11 reach and is explosive off the ground.   
Blake Griffin is only 6'8 with 6'11 wingspan. Faried only 6'7 with 6'11 wingspan.   

Harrell is a more explosive , intense version of Brandon Bass.  Brandon Bass has fit really well under CBS system.

We would not be grabbing Harrell to be a center but he could guard centers occasionally (like Crowder , due to his strength, won't give up position easily), depending what CBS wants to do out on the floor.   

IF Bass is not brought back, Harrell could fill in that mobile, athletic , ability to guard multiple position pf role and provide even more intensity.
I think Faried is a good comp for Harrell. But Harrell's lack of shooting would give you the same spacing problem Faried does for the Nuggets. As to the blake Griffin comparison, Blake is 6'8.5 with out shoes, Harrell is 6'5.5 without shoes. Harrell hasn't given the indication that he will ever be able to shoot like Bass.

Regardless, I don't think you draft a junior who is already what he will be long term vs a player with a higher ceiling (unless the Junior fits a need). We need the player with the higher ceiling. I don't agree that Harrell fits Steven's system either.

I'm not sure what your basing on what kind of player fits CBS system. But from what i have seen, he tends to like playing players who are tough, works extremely hard, versatile defender/guard multiple positions, able to run end to end  on multiple occasions between whistles, good bbiq.   Able to make the open jump shots is nice also

Harrell outside of ability to make jump shot on a consistent basis (he has improved though, and more willing to shoot it then in the past) meets all the other criteria I listed above.   He is also explosive and is a capable rim protector.   

So tell me, why wouldn't he fit under CBS system?  or does he not fit in with what your looking for?
To me Stevens system likes position versatility, floor spacing and ball handlers.

Harrell is an undersized 4 in the NBA. I don't think you can have him guard anything but 4's in the NBA. So I don't see any positional versatility. He isn't a very good shooter so you won't see him space the floor much and he doesn't have any perimeter ball handling skills.

Stevens likes to go small, when he goes small he usually has lineup that consist of 5 shooters or 4 shooters and one big. Harrell can't be in the 5 shooter lineups because he can't shoot, and if you are playing him as your only big, he won't be able to protect the rim like you would want in that lineup.

A good comp for why he wouldn't succeed is Thomas Robinson. 4's that can't either shoot or block shots aren't succeeding as anything more than back ups in todays NBA.

I like him Harrell just not with our first pick because he doesn't have the upside because of his lack of size and age.

I disagree with many of your points. I have watched several Louisville last and this season games and Harrell can defend more than one position. He is all over the court some games.  See the link below from 6:39. He can guard sfs and keep up even with some guards out on the perimeter. He has good lateral quickness.  He is a strong kid and also will make it tough for some centers to gain inside position. Willing to battle on the inside.

The problem with that statement is that he's doing it on the college level. Covering big college stiffs is a far cry from how that'll translate to the next level.

You seem to be all over the place with your player likes, so I can't quite figure you out. However, the one common denominator is that you seem very keen on college basketball stats/production and thinking that means it'll translate on the next level. For me, I'd much rather take the young 18-19 year old freshman with upside, rather than the 21-22 year old (like your guys Kaminsky, Harrell, etc.) with a limited ceiling.

You'd rather have Kaminsky ahead of Turner and Harrell ahead of say, Cliff Alexander, but imagine for a second what those younger players would be doing on the college level at the same age as Kaminsky and Harrell.

but those players haven't. And we don't know if they will.

I value the proof of hard work and accomplishments more than "potential". How many guys with off the charts potential ever reach it??  Russell Westbrook is the last guy I can think of that didn't accomplish much in college to become a star in the NBA.

Would you draft Perry Jones over Jae Crowder?  Jeremy Lamb over Marcus Smart?

something to think about
Those are strange comparisons.  How about these?  Would you draft Embiid over Smart?  The Greek Freak over Olynyk?  The correct answer is everyday and twice on Sunday.

For teams that have mediocre talent at best, the draft should be all about taking the best player available.  NBA readiness, system fit, etc should be tertiary considerations.  The potential for getting a star is worth the risk of a draft pick bust.  Freshman and sophomores drafted for their potential are relatively speaking much more likely to succeed in the NBA than more accomplished juniors and seniors.

That's the sort of thinking that led to freshman Michael Kidd-Gilchrist being selected over junior Damien Lillard.  Or freshman Tyreke Evans and sophomore Jonny Flynn over junior Stephan Curry.

Mike

Great post!
Accept that it's not really true (about Curry anyway). Teams thought that he was too short and didn't have the handle and passing instincts to translate to the NBA as a PG and were afraid he'd top out at an undersized SG like Eddie House.

Turns out 6 teams were very wrong. Steph continued to get better for many more years at the professional level and is one of the best players in the league.

The draft is an inexact science. For every Marvin Williams over Chris Paul there's a Dwight Howard over Emeka Okafor story.
« Last Edit: March 19, 2015, 07:58:58 AM by HomerSapien »

Re: My early 2015 1st round picks for the Celtics
« Reply #89 on: March 19, 2015, 08:13:09 AM »

Offline Eddie20

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Just read over the thread and I got some comments

1. Harrell is a good player but what is his upside? We need players who could some day end up being elite. Drafting a 21 year old 6'6 pf doesn't really have huge upside. If he's available with the Clippers pick we should take him but our pick is too early.

2. I think Kaminsky is a solid player but if he is the best player available we need to trade up. If we pick at 16 I would prefer Portis to Kaminsky but I think we need to go big either way and a good floor spacing big would help.

3. Someone compared Myles Turner to Thabeet. Turner has the chance to be a great shot blocker but he also is extremely skilled. If Thabeet had Turner's offensive game he wouldn't have been a bust.

4. I agree that WCS could drop since I doubt the Jazz, Philly, and Detroit pick a center and there should be 3 or 4 centers drafted ahead of WCS so maybe he slips. However, we will still need to trade up to at latest the 8-10 pick in order to draft him.

5. LaVert or RHJ would both be great picks with the Clippers pick.

I'm going to say the C's trade up to grab WCS, and then get LaVert or RHJ with the Clippers pick (or we trade the clippers pick and trade two of our seconds to move up and grab one of those guys).

-Turner to Thabeet comparison is good.  Just not that mobile, agile on the court.  Turner can move a little better but he has a strange running technique that imo will result in injuries sooner or later. Again he does not fit with CBS system overall, only for specific situations (Against Hibbert). But as of late we are making the opposing teams follow our lead (go small)

-  Harrell is not 6'6.  He matched up against Brice Johnson last week and he was only a tad shorter. Brice Johnson is 6'9. Harrell is 6'8

- Everyone want the Celts to move up in the draft. How easy is that? When was the last time anyone can remember a team able to move up to top 5 having a 14th pick for example? bc of the way the salary cap/structure is these days, picks are very valuable to keep/develop
Turner is a big who can block shots and step out and hit the 3. That sounds like a perfect fit for Steven's system. Turner probably won't be ready to play away but he has a ton more potential than Harrell and we need to swing for the fences in the draft because we don't need depth.

Draft Express has Harrell as 6'6.5 in shoes. (6'5 w/o shoes) He's certainly not 6'8.

I agree that we won't move into the top 5 but there have been a bunch of trades where a team moves up into the 8-12 range (Chicago moved up last year)

If Harrell is only 6'7 then thats ok still. He has a long wingspan, 8'11 reach and is explosive off the ground.   
Blake Griffin is only 6'8 with 6'11 wingspan. Faried only 6'7 with 6'11 wingspan.   

Harrell is a more explosive , intense version of Brandon Bass.  Brandon Bass has fit really well under CBS system.

We would not be grabbing Harrell to be a center but he could guard centers occasionally (like Crowder , due to his strength, won't give up position easily), depending what CBS wants to do out on the floor.   

IF Bass is not brought back, Harrell could fill in that mobile, athletic , ability to guard multiple position pf role and provide even more intensity.
I think Faried is a good comp for Harrell. But Harrell's lack of shooting would give you the same spacing problem Faried does for the Nuggets. As to the blake Griffin comparison, Blake is 6'8.5 with out shoes, Harrell is 6'5.5 without shoes. Harrell hasn't given the indication that he will ever be able to shoot like Bass.

Regardless, I don't think you draft a junior who is already what he will be long term vs a player with a higher ceiling (unless the Junior fits a need). We need the player with the higher ceiling. I don't agree that Harrell fits Steven's system either.

I'm not sure what your basing on what kind of player fits CBS system. But from what i have seen, he tends to like playing players who are tough, works extremely hard, versatile defender/guard multiple positions, able to run end to end  on multiple occasions between whistles, good bbiq.   Able to make the open jump shots is nice also

Harrell outside of ability to make jump shot on a consistent basis (he has improved though, and more willing to shoot it then in the past) meets all the other criteria I listed above.   He is also explosive and is a capable rim protector.   

So tell me, why wouldn't he fit under CBS system?  or does he not fit in with what your looking for?
To me Stevens system likes position versatility, floor spacing and ball handlers.

Harrell is an undersized 4 in the NBA. I don't think you can have him guard anything but 4's in the NBA. So I don't see any positional versatility. He isn't a very good shooter so you won't see him space the floor much and he doesn't have any perimeter ball handling skills.

Stevens likes to go small, when he goes small he usually has lineup that consist of 5 shooters or 4 shooters and one big. Harrell can't be in the 5 shooter lineups because he can't shoot, and if you are playing him as your only big, he won't be able to protect the rim like you would want in that lineup.

A good comp for why he wouldn't succeed is Thomas Robinson. 4's that can't either shoot or block shots aren't succeeding as anything more than back ups in todays NBA.

I like him Harrell just not with our first pick because he doesn't have the upside because of his lack of size and age.

I disagree with many of your points. I have watched several Louisville last and this season games and Harrell can defend more than one position. He is all over the court some games.  See the link below from 6:39. He can guard sfs and keep up even with some guards out on the perimeter. He has good lateral quickness.  He is a strong kid and also will make it tough for some centers to gain inside position. Willing to battle on the inside.

The problem with that statement is that he's doing it on the college level. Covering big college stiffs is a far cry from how that'll translate to the next level.

You seem to be all over the place with your player likes, so I can't quite figure you out. However, the one common denominator is that you seem very keen on college basketball stats/production and thinking that means it'll translate on the next level. For me, I'd much rather take the young 18-19 year old freshman with upside, rather than the 21-22 year old (like your guys Kaminsky, Harrell, etc.) with a limited ceiling.

You'd rather have Kaminsky ahead of Turner and Harrell ahead of say, Cliff Alexander, but imagine for a second what those younger players would be doing on the college level at the same age as Kaminsky and Harrell.

but those players haven't. And we don't know if they will.

I value the proof of hard work and accomplishments more than "potential". How many guys with off the charts potential ever reach it??  Russell Westbrook is the last guy I can think of that didn't accomplish much in college to become a star in the NBA.

Would you draft Perry Jones over Jae Crowder?  Jeremy Lamb over Marcus Smart?

something to think about
Those are strange comparisons.  How about these?  Would you draft Embiid over Smart?  The Greek Freak over Olynyk?  The correct answer is everyday and twice on Sunday.

For teams that have mediocre talent at best, the draft should be all about taking the best player available.  NBA readiness, system fit, etc should be tertiary considerations.  The potential for getting a star is worth the risk of a draft pick bust.  Freshman and sophomores drafted for their potential are relatively speaking much more likely to succeed in the NBA than more accomplished juniors and seniors.

That's the sort of thinking that led to freshman Michael Kidd-Gilchrist being selected over junior Damien Lillard.  Or freshman Tyreke Evans and sophomore Jonny Flynn over junior Stephan Curry.

Mike

Great post!
Accept that it's not really true (about Curry anyway). Teams thought that he was too short and didn't have the handle and passing instincts to translate to the NBA as a PG and were afraid he'd top out at an undersized SG like Eddie House.

Turns out 6 teams were very wrong. Steph continued to get better for many more years at the professional level and is one of the best players in the league.

The draft is an inexact science. For every Marvin Williams over Chris Paul there's a Dwight Howard over Emeka Okafor story.

May I ask which teams were these that thought he was too short? Because at the combine Curry measured 6' 3.25".  You're making stuff up now.

The biggest knock on both players was the level of competition (Southern conference for one, Big Sky for the other). That was the main reason both players didn't go higher in the draft. The only other questions I remember on either were concerns about Curry being too thin and if Lillard could play PG after being a scoring PG at Weber St. However, that was always secondary to the stats vs weak competition criticism.