Ultimate TANK Hypothetical question

[Hemingway]

Here is a question: Which is more likely beating the Hawks in a 7 game series or winning to lotto with the 11th pick?


Winning the lotto would sure help our team, but making some noise in the playoffs would also really help FAs take us seriously.  What are our chances of getting Love (or whomever you want) right now? How much would they improve if we show we can win a game or two in the playoffs?

[D.o.s.]

11th pick.

[obnoxiousmime]

The percentage of getting the top overall pick right now (tied for tenth worst record) for the Celts is 1%. The chances of getting a top 3 pick is 3.6%. I think most would say the chances of the Celtics beating the Hawks in a 7-game series is better than those percentages because the Hawks, while full of talent are also unproven in the playoffs.

However I don't think even a first-round upset would necessarily be a huge factor in Ainge's recruiting efforts. First off I think the perception is that the Celtics are overachieving and that the talent while deep isn't actually that good. If the Celts do beat the Hawks, it will probably be Isaiah scoring 20ppg and everybody else getting 10-15. Stars want to play with other stars and I just don't think a series win will change the perception.

Also a lot of the top free agents are already on good teams so there is really no incentive for them to leave even if they thought "Hey this Celtics team isn't half bad."

[Donoghus]

Here is a question: Which is more likely beating the Hawks in a 7 game series or winning to lotto with the 11th pick?


Winning the lotto would sure help our team, but making some noise in the playoffs would also really help FAs take us seriously.  What are our chances of getting Love (or whomever you want) right now? How much would they improve if we show we can win a game or two in the playoffs?

Amazingly, I think it's beating the Hawks.  Not that I think it's likely but the chances of beating them have to be better than the 0.9% chance or whatever it is of landing the #1 pick.

[D.o.s.]

You two are underestimating Atlanta or overestimating the Celtics.

[RAAAAAAAANDY]

Playoffs all day everyday. I've never gotten the fascination with tanking. Nothing good comes from tanking.

07-08 was kickstarted with the pick acquired through tanking.

[Donoghus]

You two are underestimating Atlanta or overestimating the Celtics.

I think 5 or 10% would still be greater than 0.9% unless my math is off these days.

[D.o.s.]

You are either overestimating the Celtics or underestimating Atlanta.








 

[saltlover]

Here is a question: Which is more likely beating the Hawks in a 7 game series or winning to lotto with the 11th pick?


Winning the lotto would sure help our team, but making some noise in the playoffs would also really help FAs take us seriously.  What are our chances of getting Love (or whomever you want) right now? How much would they improve if we show we can win a game or two in the playoffs?

If we define the winning the lottery as moving to the top 3, we'd have a 2.9% chance to do so from the 11th worst record.  For perspective, we'd have a 6.4% chance to be passed by 1 or more of the 3 teams beneath us and finish with a pick of 12-14.  So if we get the 11th best lottery odds, it is more than twice as likely we'd finish with a pick worse than 11th than it is we'd move up to the top 3.

Meanwhile, there are formulas that are reasonably good at predicting outcomes of games given the season-long scoring differential of the opponents.  I'm not going to calculate the numbers this minute, but I'm almost positive those formulas would indicate we had a much better than 2.9% chance of winning a 7-game series.  I'd guess the odds would be around 10%.

[SparzWizard]

Are these lottery picks...a top 5 or 8 pick? Or just the middle/late dwellers? 

If we missed the playoffs, one would be the 14th pick, the other would probably be 11th or 12th.

If we made the playoffs, one would be the 15th pick, and the other would probably be the 17th or 18th pick (assuming the Clippers had to go into a free fall to be on the cusp of missing the playoffs).

So, 11th pick + 14th pick + no playoffs, or 15th pick + 17th pick + playoffs

I'm taking playoffs.

Ah. With that being said...playoffs it is!

[Smokeeye123]

The 11th seed, at least then we have a 3% spot at getting a top 3 pick. So what if we make the playoffs? I think it is unanimous here that this team is not close to a championship level team? Win or lose around nothing will come out of making the playoffs.

I laugh at everybody who says it will "Give the Celtics valuable playoff experience for their future championship run!"

Newsflash Nobody on this team will be here when we re at that level. They will all be flipped and auctioned off to the highest bidder.  Regardless, have fun anti-tankers getting steamrolled by the Hawks or Cavs. Why tank one year and play the odds for an allstar when you can be rewarded some imaginary playoff experience brownie points! If the Suns or Nuggets make the playoffs as an 8th seed a couple more times I'm sure their championship will be assured! 

[Donoghus]

The 11th seed, at least then we have a 3% spot at getting a top 3 pick. So what if we make the playoffs? I think it is unanimous here that this team is not close to a championship level team? Win or lose around nothing will come out of making the playoffs.

I laugh at everybody who says it will "Give the Celtics valuable playoff experience for their future championship run!"

Newsflash Nobody on this team will be here when we re at that level. They will all be flipped and auctioned off to the highest bidder.  Regardless, have fun anti-tankers getting steamrolled by the Hawks or Cavs. Why tank one year and play the odds for an allstar when you can be rewarded some imaginary playoff experience brownie points! If the Suns or Nuggets make the playoffs as an 8th seed a couple more times I'm sure their championship will be assured! 

This recent 10 game stretch must really be stinging you, huh?

[Smokeeye123]

The 11th seed, at least then we have a 3% spot at getting a top 3 pick. So what if we make the playoffs? I think it is unanimous here that this team is not close to a championship level team? Win or lose around nothing will come out of making the playoffs.

I laugh at everybody who says it will "Give the Celtics valuable playoff experience for their future championship run!"

Newsflash Nobody on this team will be here when we re at that level. They will all be flipped and auctioned off to the highest bidder.  Regardless, have fun anti-tankers getting steamrolled by the Hawks or Cavs. Why tank one year and play the odds for an allstar when you can be rewarded some imaginary playoff experience brownie points! If the Suns or Nuggets make the playoffs as an 8th seed a couple more times I'm sure their championship will be assured! 

This recent 10 game stretch must really be stinging you, huh?

Stinging is an understatement. It's ripped my soul out.

[Future Celtics Owner]

I will take the lottery picks 100% of the time

[Future Celtics Owner]

The 11th seed, at least then we have a 3% spot at getting a top 3 pick. So what if we make the playoffs? I think it is unanimous here that this team is not close to a championship level team? Win or lose around nothing will come out of making the playoffs.

I laugh at everybody who says it will "Give the Celtics valuable playoff experience for their future championship run!"

Newsflash Nobody on this team will be here when we re at that level. They will all be flipped and auctioned off to the highest bidder.  Regardless, have fun anti-tankers getting steamrolled by the Hawks or Cavs. Why tank one year and play the odds for an allstar when you can be rewarded some imaginary playoff experience brownie points! If the Suns or Nuggets make the playoffs as an 8th seed a couple more times I'm sure their championship will be assured! 

TP