Ultimate TANK Hypothetical question

[Ogaju]

Hypo - So its the last game of the season and you have the following scenario

A Celtics win against a Western opponent puts the Celtics in the playoffs and the Clippers in the playoffs. A Celtics loss, on the other hand, puts the Celtics out of the playoffs and into the lottery and also puts the Clippers out of the playoffs and into the lottery where the Celtics get their pick. Which of the two scenarios do you root for? The win that puts us in playoffs but costs us two lottery picks, or the loss that puts us out of the playoffs but gets us two lottery picks?

[SparzWizard]

Are these lottery picks...a top 5 or 8 pick? Or just the middle/late dwellers? 

[kne]

Losing that game on purpose is messing with the basketball gods. I prefer not to mess with the basketball gods.

[Roy H.]

Are these lottery picks...a top 5 or 8 pick? Or just the middle/late dwellers? 

If we missed the playoffs, one would be the 14th pick, the other would probably be 11th or 12th.

If we made the playoffs, one would be the 15th pick, and the other would probably be the 17th or 18th pick (assuming the Clippers had to go into a free fall to be on the cusp of missing the playoffs).

So, 11th pick + 14th pick + no playoffs, or 15th pick + 17th pick + playoffs

I'm taking playoffs.

[Celtics4ever]

At a glance, I don't think it is far fetched that we could go .500 the rest of the season.  A lot will depend if we are playing teams who have clenched and who have to make the playoffs as that can change the level of competition in a game.

[slamtheking]

Are these lottery picks...a top 5 or 8 pick? Or just the middle/late dwellers? 

If we missed the playoffs, one would be the 14th pick, the other would probably be 11th or 12th.

If we made the playoffs, one would be the 15th pick, and the other would probably be the 17th or 18th pick (assuming the Clippers had to go into a free fall to be on the cusp of missing the playoffs).

So, 11th pick + 14th pick + no playoffs, or 15th pick + 17th pick + playoffs

I'm taking playoffs.

this - beat me to it. 

if we knew that either the C's or Clips picks would end up top 3, that may be a reason to consider it but it's extremely unlikely that either pick with those really low odds jumps up into the top 3.  with that in mind, what's the point of losing to improve the C's pick 1 spot and the Clip's pick 2-3 spots?

[Moranis]

Are these lottery picks...a top 5 or 8 pick? Or just the middle/late dwellers? 

If we missed the playoffs, one would be the 14th pick, the other would probably be 11th or 12th.

If we made the playoffs, one would be the 15th pick, and the other would probably be the 17th or 18th pick (assuming the Clippers had to go into a free fall to be on the cusp of missing the playoffs).

So, 11th pick + 14th pick + no playoffs, or 15th pick + 17th pick + playoffs

I'm taking playoffs.

Yeah but the 11 and 14 could end up as 1 and 2.  That is the real crux of the issue.

[saltlover]

I want to point this out, that the OP said this is purely hypothetical, and as the C's play the Bucks to end the season, this can't actually happen.

[saltlover]

Are these lottery picks...a top 5 or 8 pick? Or just the middle/late dwellers? 

If we missed the playoffs, one would be the 14th pick, the other would probably be 11th or 12th.

If we made the playoffs, one would be the 15th pick, and the other would probably be the 17th or 18th pick (assuming the Clippers had to go into a free fall to be on the cusp of missing the playoffs).

So, 11th pick + 14th pick + no playoffs, or 15th pick + 17th pick + playoffs

I'm taking playoffs.

Yeah but the 11 and 14 could end up as 1 and 2.  That is the real crux of the issue.

The odds that 11 and 14 become 1 and 2 (or heck, 2 and 3), is ridiculously small.  I don't have he odds in front of me, but it is less than 1/10th of a percent.  It's more likely that the Celtics win the title than wind up with two picks in the top 3 in this hypothetical scenario.

[saltlover]

How about this hypothetical for next year:  The Celtics finish against the Wolves.  A win puts us into the playoffs.  A win by the Wolves pushes them from the 12th to 13th pick, meaning we get their 1st instead of 2 2nds.

[Roy H.]

How about this hypothetical for next year:  The Celtics finish against the Wolves.  A win puts us into the playoffs.  A win by the Wolves pushes them from the 12th to 13th pick, meaning we get their 1st instead of 2 2nds.

That's a much closer call for me.  Having the 13th and 14th picks is a lot nicer than having the 15th and 42nd picks, plus a future #2.

[Moranis]

Are these lottery picks...a top 5 or 8 pick? Or just the middle/late dwellers? 

If we missed the playoffs, one would be the 14th pick, the other would probably be 11th or 12th.

If we made the playoffs, one would be the 15th pick, and the other would probably be the 17th or 18th pick (assuming the Clippers had to go into a free fall to be on the cusp of missing the playoffs).

So, 11th pick + 14th pick + no playoffs, or 15th pick + 17th pick + playoffs

I'm taking playoffs.

Yeah but the 11 and 14 could end up as 1 and 2.  That is the real crux of the issue.

The odds that 11 and 14 become 1 and 2 (or heck, 2 and 3), is ridiculously small.  I don't have he odds in front of me, but it is less than 1/10th of a percent.  It's more likely that the Celtics win the title than wind up with two picks in the top 3 in this hypothetical scenario.

well of course, but one of them certainly could end up in the top 3.  Sure not likely, but that is what makes this particular hypothetical interesting.  15 + 17 + playoffs or two picks in the lottery and no playoffs. 

[Roy H.]

Are these lottery picks...a top 5 or 8 pick? Or just the middle/late dwellers? 

If we missed the playoffs, one would be the 14th pick, the other would probably be 11th or 12th.

If we made the playoffs, one would be the 15th pick, and the other would probably be the 17th or 18th pick (assuming the Clippers had to go into a free fall to be on the cusp of missing the playoffs).

So, 11th pick + 14th pick + no playoffs, or 15th pick + 17th pick + playoffs

I'm taking playoffs.

Yeah but the 11 and 14 could end up as 1 and 2.  That is the real crux of the issue.

The odds that 11 and 14 become 1 and 2 (or heck, 2 and 3), is ridiculously small.  I don't have he odds in front of me, but it is less than 1/10th of a percent.  It's more likely that the Celtics win the title than wind up with two picks in the top 3 in this hypothetical scenario.

well of course, but one of them certainly could end up in the top 3.  Sure not likely, but that is what makes this particular hypothetical interesting.  15 + 17 + playoffs or two picks in the lottery and no playoffs.

It's not non-zero, but the odds are certainly stacked against moving up:

Odds of the 11th pick being in the top-3:  2.1%
Odds of the 14th pick being in the top-3: 1.8%

[JohnBoy65]

Hypo - So its the last game of the season and you have the following scenario

A Celtics win against a Western opponent puts the Celtics in the playoffs and the Clippers in the playoffs. A Celtics loss, on the other hand, puts the Celtics out of the playoffs and into the lottery and also puts the Clippers out of the playoffs and into the lottery where the Celtics get their pick. Which of the two scenarios do you root for? The win that puts us in playoffs but costs us two lottery picks, or the loss that puts us out of the playoffs but gets us two lottery picks?

I am taking playoffs every time. If Danny REALLY wanted to get to the top3 picks he could. He would need to pay a boatload for it, but we have enough to get there if he thought the top 3 players would be franchise altering.

[pearljammer10]

Playoffs all day everyday. I've never gotten the fascination with tanking. Nothing good comes from tanking.