Since this thread has been posted I have been paying a lot more attention to Nerlens Noel. As a result I must admit that I have underestimated his defensive ability and athleticism. The more I see the more I like. Now would I sell the farm for him? still no, but I must say that I think LarBrd and Raaaaaaandy were on to something that I wasnt seeing.
Hes got a long way to go but Nerlens Noel could well become a dominant defensive force in this league and thats worth something. In fact, that's worth a lot.
... He's a 20 year old raw rookie coming off serious surgery. He was considered BY FAR to be the best prospect of the 2013 Draft. It's bizarre to me that people would judge the kid based on his first month or two of NBA basketball. He's obviously going to progress.
And that's exactly what's happening... he's progressing. Look at his last 10 games since All-Star Break: 12 points, 10 rebounds, 1.7 assists, 2.9 blocks and 2.7 steals in 33.9mpg with 44% shooting, a much improved 72% shooting from the line.
The defensive stats are insane if he can keep them up. Kid looks like he'll be a DPOY candidate every year. Even his season averages (which are going up) of 1.8 blocks/1.8 steals probably compare favorably to every single modern rookie center you can think of (Dwight, Brow, Drummond, etc). He had a career high 17 rebounds in his last game. The kid has HUGE Potential. Championships are won with elite scoring and elite bigs. If you could get Nerlens for our draft pick (assuming it's not top 4) + Sully, you'd have to do it. If you could get Nerlens for our draft pick + Smart, you'd probably have to do that too.
If Philly lands Okafor in the draft, they are going to have a really tough decision... because everything I read about Joel Embiid is that he's going to be a transcendent center in this league... and looks like he's getting healthy (vid from 2 days ago): https://vine.co/v/OEKxv2pHlmj
A few points,
First, I would say that I am absolutley for moving any non top 3 pick (at this point 4-7 are completely impossible) along with their pick of Sully KO and Zeller all for Noel. I assume most fans are in the same boat.
Now to address a few of your points, he and Griffin both had huge knee procedures during or before their rookie year. Noel took more than 20 months off from injury to debut. Perkins recovered from the same injury in 7 months. Blake Griffin was in a similar scenario. He hurt his knee and returned to action the next season after fully recovering and having a few months to come play at 100% with the staff etc. Both were on similarly awful basketball teams when they did make their debuts. Griffin scored 23ppg and got 12.5 boards per game. Noel is getting 9 and 8. You mentioned Noel played great against the hawks with 17 boards but you neglect to mention that the Hawks completely didnt care about the game as the sat two all stars and Demarre Carrol, one of their best players.
I did not judge him based on his first month of pro basketball, because I felt he had a huge advantage over every other rookie. Hes been in the league a full 12 months longer than them working on his game, with the coaching staff, getting used to the pros, and he was playing on a team where other teams came in looking to lock up the game in the first half then rest starters. When he played the C's I would watch and he didnt impress me. I instead judged him on the fact that many considered his offensive game to be hopeless coming out of Kentucky, the fact that he hasnt washed away any knee injury concerns (hes played like half a season, bravo), and the fact that when I watched him play he did not jump off the page.
I like his game as a rim protector and not just that but I think hes a really good all around defender, but look how many rising star or already very good centers/ rim protecters there are around the league.
Gobert
Jordan
Henson
Drummond
Hibbert
Gasol
Bogurt
Cousins
Deng
Len
Mozgov
Horford
Nurkic (younger and more blocks, points, and boards per 48)
Noah
Chandler
Adams
Asik
Davis
Ibaka
Duncan
Whiteside
Combine that with Towns and WCS coming in this year and thats 24 players who either are or project to be very effective defenders.
Its not like great defensive C's are one in a million.
Id move our #1 unless we win the lotto and Id let them pick one of zeller, KO, or Sully, Id also let them take back teh '15 second. If they wanted to talk james Young Id listen. Smart is off the table and unless he is the center piece, so is Thomas.