Would you draft-day trade our pick (#7-11) for Nerlens Noel?

[nickagneta]

I also have all the confidence in the world Nerlens will develop. Case in point, look at his home and away splits. He is just a much better player at home surrounded by family. On the road with no vet presence to teach him how to live life as a vet playing on the road, he has stunk.

He is 20 years old and a rookie. He will end the year at somewhere around 8 PPG, 7 RPG, 2.25 BPG, 2 APG, 1.5 SPG. His shooting and offense will develop with age, experience, work and a better surrounding cast.

By age 25 I wouldn't put numbers like: 14ppg, 10rpg, 3 apg, 3.5 bpg, 2.5 spg, shooting 55%, 70% and having a DRTG of about 95, past him.

[PickNRoll]

I also have all the confidence in the world Nerlens will develop. Case in point, look at his home and away splits. He is just a much better player at home surrounded by family. On the road with no vet presence to teach him how to live life as a vet playing on the road, he has stunk.

He is 20 years old and a rookie. He will end the year at somewhere around 8 PPG, 7 RPG, 2.25 BPG, 2 APG, 1.5 SPG. His shooting and offense will develop with age, experience, work and a better surrounding cast.

By age 25 I wouldn't put numbers like: 14ppg, 10rpg, 3 apg, 3.5 bpg, 2.5 spg, shooting 55%, 70% and having a DRTG of about 95, past him.

So, roughly speaking, a better Dikembe Mutombo.  8 time All-Star, 4 time DPoY.  Likely Hall of Famer.

[nickagneta]

I also have all the confidence in the world Nerlens will develop. Case in point, look at his home and away splits. He is just a much better player at home surrounded by family. On the road with no vet presence to teach him how to live life as a vet playing on the road, he has stunk.

He is 20 years old and a rookie. He will end the year at somewhere around 8 PPG, 7 RPG, 2.25 BPG, 2 APG, 1.5 SPG. His shooting and offense will develop with age, experience, work and a better surrounding cast.

By age 25 I wouldn't put numbers like: 14ppg, 10rpg, 3 apg, 3.5 bpg, 2.5 spg, shooting 55%, 70% and having a DRTG of about 95, past him.

So, roughly speaking, a better Dikembe Mutombo.  8 time All-Star, 4 time DPoY.  Likely Hall of Famer.

Marcus Camby may be closer to what I am thinking.

[MBunge]

I also have all the confidence in the world Nerlens will develop. Case in point, look at his home and away splits. He is just a much better player at home surrounded by family. On the road with no vet presence to teach him how to live life as a vet playing on the road, he has stunk.

He is 20 years old and a rookie. He will end the year at somewhere around 8 PPG, 7 RPG, 2.25 BPG, 2 APG, 1.5 SPG. His shooting and offense will develop with age, experience, work and a better surrounding cast.

By age 25 I wouldn't put numbers like: 14ppg, 10rpg, 3 apg, 3.5 bpg, 2.5 spg, shooting 55%, 70% and having a DRTG of about 95, past him.

So, roughly speaking, a better Dikembe Mutombo.  8 time All-Star, 4 time DPoY.  Likely Hall of Famer.

Mutombo only shot 55% or better 3 times in his entire career.  Mutombo also shot 49.3% as a rookie compared to Noel's current 44.9%.

Those offensive projections for Noel, given what we've seen so far, are ridiculous.  It's like projecting KO as a 20 pt a game scorer when he's 25.

Mike

[MBunge]

I also have all the confidence in the world Nerlens will develop. Case in point, look at his home and away splits. He is just a much better player at home surrounded by family. On the road with no vet presence to teach him how to live life as a vet playing on the road, he has stunk.

He is 20 years old and a rookie. He will end the year at somewhere around 8 PPG, 7 RPG, 2.25 BPG, 2 APG, 1.5 SPG. His shooting and offense will develop with age, experience, work and a better surrounding cast.

By age 25 I wouldn't put numbers like: 14ppg, 10rpg, 3 apg, 3.5 bpg, 2.5 spg, shooting 55%, 70% and having a DRTG of about 95, past him.

So, roughly speaking, a better Dikembe Mutombo.  8 time All-Star, 4 time DPoY.  Likely Hall of Famer.

Marcus Camby may be closer to what I am thinking.

Marcus Camby averaged 14.8 pts on 48% shooting as 22 year old rookie.

Mike

[nickagneta]

I also have all the confidence in the world Nerlens will develop. Case in point, look at his home and away splits. He is just a much better player at home surrounded by family. On the road with no vet presence to teach him how to live life as a vet playing on the road, he has stunk.

He is 20 years old and a rookie. He will end the year at somewhere around 8 PPG, 7 RPG, 2.25 BPG, 2 APG, 1.5 SPG. His shooting and offense will develop with age, experience, work and a better surrounding cast.

By age 25 I wouldn't put numbers like: 14ppg, 10rpg, 3 apg, 3.5 bpg, 2.5 spg, shooting 55%, 70% and having a DRTG of about 95, past him.

So, roughly speaking, a better Dikembe Mutombo.  8 time All-Star, 4 time DPoY.  Likely Hall of Famer.

Marcus Camby may be closer to what I am thinking.

Marcus Camby averaged 14.8 pts on 48% shooting as 22 year old rookie.

Mike

And??

Let's see what 2 years of development brings because Nerlens is 20. I have all the faith in the world he can become the type of player Camby was.

[celticsclay]

I also have all the confidence in the world Nerlens will develop. Case in point, look at his home and away splits. He is just a much better player at home surrounded by family. On the road with no vet presence to teach him how to live life as a vet playing on the road, he has stunk.

He is 20 years old and a rookie. He will end the year at somewhere around 8 PPG, 7 RPG, 2.25 BPG, 2 APG, 1.5 SPG. His shooting and offense will develop with age, experience, work and a better surrounding cast.

By age 25 I wouldn't put numbers like: 14ppg, 10rpg, 3 apg, 3.5 bpg, 2.5 spg, shooting 55%, 70% and having a DRTG of about 95, past him.

So, roughly speaking, a better Dikembe Mutombo.  8 time All-Star, 4 time DPoY.  Likely Hall of Famer.

Marcus Camby may be closer to what I am thinking.

Marcus Camby averaged 14.8 pts on 48% shooting as 22 year old rookie.

Mike

And??

Let's see what 2 years of development brings because Nerlens is 20. I have all the faith in the world he can become the type of player Camby was.

I know everyone has bad games, but man Noel's stat line is absolutely horrendous so far tonight. 1 rebound, 1 block, 2 points and 3 turnovers and 1-3 from the field going against zaza pachula and Erlan Ilasova.  Maybe I just happen to look at the box scores on off nights. Doesn't help they are getting plastered 49-25 so far by the bucks.

[PickNRoll]

I also have all the confidence in the world Nerlens will develop. Case in point, look at his home and away splits. He is just a much better player at home surrounded by family. On the road with no vet presence to teach him how to live life as a vet playing on the road, he has stunk.

He is 20 years old and a rookie. He will end the year at somewhere around 8 PPG, 7 RPG, 2.25 BPG, 2 APG, 1.5 SPG. His shooting and offense will develop with age, experience, work and a better surrounding cast.

By age 25 I wouldn't put numbers like: 14ppg, 10rpg, 3 apg, 3.5 bpg, 2.5 spg, shooting 55%, 70% and having a DRTG of about 95, past him.

So, roughly speaking, a better Dikembe Mutombo.  8 time All-Star, 4 time DPoY.  Likely Hall of Famer.

Marcus Camby may be closer to what I am thinking.

Stylistically, Camby is a different player.  Great touch out to 18 feet.  Nerlens probably never develops that. If you're saying they have similar ceilings, I'd play along.  Camby averaged 2.4 blocks for his career.  I think the 3.5 blocks you project is unlikely, but Camby did creep over 3.5 in 2 seasons. I don't think Noel ever reaches Camby level.  Camby was in the discussion for league leading rebounder most years.

Sean Bradley is a really good comp, substituting gigantism for athleticism.  Career 45% shooter who approached 50% a few times, 2.5 blocks, 8 points but had a run of 5 years between 11 and 14 points.

[vjcsmoke]

Why would coming off a major injury boost his trade value?    

Some of you guys are tripping. Noel is legit.  Getting potentially dominant defensive centers isn't easy.  Noel is going to finish this season averaging something like 10 points 8 rebounds 2 blocks and 2 steals ... Considering he's coming off a major injury and 20 years old, it will take a lot.

If we end up with a top 5 pick and they land Okafor, they might consider it.

If we are picking 7-12, I think you will need to include sully or oly.

Those numbers sound extremely optimistic.  And if Nerlens ever hit something close to that he would be demanding max contract.  Is this guy worth a max contract?  He hasn't even proven he can stay healthy for 2 seasons in a row yet.

By age 25 I wouldn't put numbers like: 14ppg, 10rpg, 3 apg, 3.5 bpg, 2.5 spg, shooting 55%, 70% and having a DRTG of about 95, past him.

[Chief]

I also have all the confidence in the world Nerlens will develop. Case in point, look at his home and away splits. He is just a much better player at home surrounded by family. On the road with no vet presence to teach him how to live life as a vet playing on the road, he has stunk.

He is 20 years old and a rookie. He will end the year at somewhere around 8 PPG, 7 RPG, 2.25 BPG, 2 APG, 1.5 SPG. His shooting and offense will develop with age, experience, work and a better surrounding cast.

By age 25 I wouldn't put numbers like: 14ppg, 10rpg, 3 apg, 3.5 bpg, 2.5 spg, shooting 55%, 70% and having a DRTG of about 95, past him.

So, roughly speaking, a better Dikembe Mutombo.  8 time All-Star, 4 time DPoY.  Likely Hall of Famer.

Marcus Camby may be closer to what I am thinking.

Stylistically, Camby is a different player.  Great touch out to 18 feet.  Nerlens probably never develops that. If you're saying they have similar ceilings, I'd play along.  Camby averaged 2.4 blocks for his career.  I think the 3.5 blocks you project is unlikely, but Camby did creep over 3.5 in 2 seasons. I don't think Noel ever reaches Camby level.  Camby was in the discussion for league leading rebounder most years.

Sean Bradley is a really good comp, substituting gigantism for athleticism.  Career 45% shooter who approached 50% a few times, 2.5 blocks, 8 points but had a run of 5 years between 11 and 14 points.

Camby was thought to be a bust his first couple years, compared to where he was drafted. Heck, after 2 years in the league, Toronto gave up on him and traded him to NY for old man Charles Oakley. When he teamed up with Van Gundy the league became aware of his potential when the Knicks went to the finals.

http://www.nytimes.com/1998/06/25/sports/pro-basketball-knicks-part-with-oakley-to-get-toronto-s-camby.html

[MBunge]

I also have all the confidence in the world Nerlens will develop. Case in point, look at his home and away splits. He is just a much better player at home surrounded by family. On the road with no vet presence to teach him how to live life as a vet playing on the road, he has stunk.

He is 20 years old and a rookie. He will end the year at somewhere around 8 PPG, 7 RPG, 2.25 BPG, 2 APG, 1.5 SPG. His shooting and offense will develop with age, experience, work and a better surrounding cast.

By age 25 I wouldn't put numbers like: 14ppg, 10rpg, 3 apg, 3.5 bpg, 2.5 spg, shooting 55%, 70% and having a DRTG of about 95, past him.

So, roughly speaking, a better Dikembe Mutombo.  8 time All-Star, 4 time DPoY.  Likely Hall of Famer.

Marcus Camby may be closer to what I am thinking.

Marcus Camby averaged 14.8 pts on 48% shooting as 22 year old rookie.

Mike

And??

Let's see what 2 years of development brings because Nerlens is 20. I have all the faith in the world he can become the type of player Camby was.

Uh, you're hoping at 25 that Noel is where Camby was as a 22 year old rookie.  Is THAT supposed to be a ringing endorsement of his potential?

And more importantly, when Camby actually was 25 he was only averaging 10 points, nearly 8 boards, 2 blocks, and less than a steal and an assist a game on 48% shooting from the field and 67% from the line.  So, you're actually projecting Noel as way, WAAAAAAY better than Camby.

Heck, you're saying Noel is going to be a bit better all around player than Marc Gasol.

That's ridiculous, given what we've seen of Noel so far.  Some version of DeAndre Jordan or Ben Wallace is at least a reasonable hope.

Mike

[Csfan1984]

I find it strange when a question turns into a debate. So what if someone thinks Noel is next Marc Gasol or just Javale McGee. It's just people's opinion on a projection. I think it would be different if it was a 5 year pro but a Rookie? Not much debate ammo for any side. It's like watching a cup half full vs half empty debate.

[MBunge]

I find it strange when a question turns into a debate. So what if someone thinks Noel is next Marc Gasol or just Javale McGee. It's just people's opinion on a projection. I think it would be different if it was a 5 year pro but a Rookie? Not much debate ammo for any side. It's like watching a cup half full vs half empty debate.

Fine.  Then Marcus Smart is going to the Hall of Fame.

Mike

[Csfan1984]

I find it strange when a question turns into a debate. So what if someone thinks Noel is next Marc Gasol or just Javale McGee. It's just people's opinion on a projection. I think it would be different if it was a 5 year pro but a Rookie? Not much debate ammo for any side. It's like watching a cup half full vs half empty debate.

Fine.  Then Marcus Smart is going to the Hall of Fame.

Mike

Hope so

[PickNRoll]

I find it strange when a question turns into a debate. So what if someone thinks Noel is next Marc Gasol or just Javale McGee. It's just people's opinion on a projection. I think it would be different if it was a 5 year pro but a Rookie? Not much debate ammo for any side. It's like watching a cup half full vs half empty debate.

I thought debate was the point.  I've been doing this all wrong!