Rondo's ability to win games diminishes significantly without the help of stars

[TheFlex]

I know people don't like re-posts on this forum, but this topic has been buried in the latest Cs-Knicks game thread and I would like it to garner recognition so more posters can discuss its legitimacy.

The argument was made by the smart, polite Rondo9: The claim that Rondo needs star teammates to succeed has been dismissed.

Here was my response:

Rondo is not THE problem.

He is demonstrating, though, that he isn't THE solution.

Mike

But he's part of the solution

Not if that solution is needing the equivalent of KG, Ray and Pierce with Rondo to be a contender.

Mike

I don't think Rondo sooooo awful that he needs superstars to make him look good. I thought we've dismissed that claim years ago.

Not to make him look good, but the impact of Rondo's performance in terms of wins and losses is dependent on having good surrounding players that can make shots and create for themselves.

Rondo is posting numbers similar to past seasons (outside of PPG and a few other things like FT%). But it appears as if the team is dreadful with or without him.

During the Big Three era Rondo's WS/48 starting in 2008-09 consistently declined as the Big Three got older, despite developing into a better and better player as each season passed. In the seasons 2008-09 and 2009-10, two of Rondo's best seasons in terms of overall team impact, Rondo posted WS/48s of .179 and .156. In both of these seasons his stats were essentially what we would expect from him in the Big Three era. His assist numbers were sub-10/game but he was scoring the ball at around a 12-14/game clip and he was defending at a high level.

In 2012-13, his WS/48 took a significant hit, falling below .120 for the first time since his rookie season. In that season, despite posting league-best assist averages and tying his career high for PPG, Rondo's WS/48 dropped down to .108.

This year, Rondo continues to post league-best assist numbers, astonishingly good rebounding numbers and is already nearing the total defensive Win Shares that he contributed (during half of) last season. However, his overall WS/48 is at a miserable .039, a career-low.

There is an argument to made that any player will see their team impact fall with a lesser team around them. A bad team means less wins and less wins means less wins that one individual player can contribute. Let's examine how true this holds for a former Celtic who also saw night and day talent throughout his career, Paul Pierce.

In his first season without Antoine Walker, Paul Pierce's WS/48 took a significant hit (-.048). In the following season however, Pierce posted a near career high in WS/48 (.182, +.73 from the following season and +.015 from his final season with Walker). Including his injury riddled 2006-07 season, Pierce went on to average .154 WS/48 from 2003-04 to 2006-07. Excluding the 2006-07 season, Pierce's WS/48 average within that period was .156. From '98-99 to 2002-03 (with Antoine Walker), Pierce's WS/48 average was .160.

Then, Pierce saw a massive jump in his 2007-08 WS/48 (.207). Much of this can be attributed to his re-dedication to defense, as his advanced offensive statistics were in many respects worse than his advanced offensive statistics in past seasons. From 2007-08 to 2012-13, Pierce averaged a WS/48 of .172, +.012 from the Antoine Walker era and +.016 from the iso-Pierce era.

From 2007-08 to 2012-13, including his 2012-13 season which one major injury derailed, Rondo averaged a WS/48 of .140. Excluding this season, the average jumps to .146. Including his return-from-injury 2013-14 season, Rondo has averaged a mere .047 WS/48 since, nearly a full tenth of a win per game less than either average (injury included or excluded) he posted in the Big Three era.

While it's certainly a small sample size, if anything the statistics support the argument that Rondo's impact on a game result is heavily dependent on above-average teammates, and it hardly dismisses the claim.

Again, Rondo will still get roughly ten assists a game and post intriguing trip-dub totals, but from what we've seen so far, such performances do not translate into wins nearly as easily as they do with teammates like KG and Paul Pierce.

Any thoughts on this? Is there a reason why the statistics are coming to this conclusion regarding Rondo?

[Monkhouse]

Ummmm... so an Allstar needs another Allstar or better supporting cast of players to do well...

Wow. Didn't see that coming.. So explain why Melo didn't do jack last year even though he was posting up great numbers..?

I get the article, but Rondo has declined in defense, and hasn't contributed to scoring. Under 10 for any PG of his caliber is unacceptable.

[TheFlex]

Ummmm... so an Allstar needs another Allstar or better supporting cast of players to do well...

Wow. Didn't see that coming.. So explain why Melo didn't do jack last year even though he was posting up great numbers..?

Not the point. As you can see in my analysis I concede that a star without help will obviously perform worse than one with help. However it appears as if Rondo's performance (not individual stats, but rather his ability to help a bad team win) is even more inconsistent than your average star when he has lesser teammates.

Melo's WS/48 has remained above .100 since the third year of his career. In 2012-13 with a good team his WS/48 was .184. Last year, with a bad team, his WS/48 was .172. That's a difference of .012, much like Pierce's differential between good teams and bad teams. So far the difference between Rondo's average WS/48 from 2007-08 to 2012-13 and Rondo's average WS/48 from 2013 to now is almost a staggering .100.

[Monkhouse]

Ummmm... so an Allstar needs another Allstar or better supporting cast of players to do well...

Wow. Didn't see that coming.. So explain why Melo didn't do jack last year even though he was posting up great numbers..?

Not the point. As you can see in my analysis I concede that a star without help will obviously perform worse than one with help. However it appears as if Rondo's performance (not individual stats, but rather his ability to help a bad team win) is even more inconsistent than you average star when he has lesser teammates.

Melo's WS/48 has remained above .100 since the third year of his career. In 2012-13 with a good team his WS/48 was .184. Last year, with a bad team, his WS/48 was .172. That's a difference of .012, much like Pierce's differential between good teams and bad teams. So far the difference between Rondo's average WS/48 from 2007-08 to 2012-13 and Rondo's average WS/48 from 2013 to now is almost a staggering .100.

Well, we know who Rondo is as a player. The question is do we pay the price to put the right pieces around him or no. It is interesting though. Does W/S take into account scoring/defense?

[Who]

Rondo's scoring efficiency is taking a beating right now. It might continue. It might not.

Last year, Rondo was just returning from a serious injury and was clearly well below his usual standards. This year, his level of play has improved considerably with the exception of his scoring. His rebounding has been stellar. His playmaking elite. I know some are unhappy with his defense but I think most of that criticism is undeserved and that Rondo has been very good on that end of the floor. It is just the scoring efficiency that is holding him back right now.

Prior to the season, Rondo broke a bone in his hand. He missed all of training camp. He rushed back onto the court and made his return far earlier than expected. Maybe that hand injury is adversely effecting his shooting percentages.

Then again, maybe it's not. Maybe this downturn in Rondo's scoring efficiency is permanent. Or maybe it is just lack of quality in teammates resulting in lower percentages for Rondo. Who knows? It is too early tell.

Need to remain patient while Rondo comes back from these injuries.

[Who]

[Melo's WS/48 has remained above .100 since the third year of his career. In 2012-13 with a good team his WS/48 was .184. Last year, with a bad team, his WS/48 was .172. That's a difference of .012, much like Pierce's differential between good teams and bad teams. So far the difference between Rondo's average WS/48 from 2007-08 to 2012-13 and Rondo's average WS/48 from 2013 to now is almost a staggering .100.

Just to continue on from my post above ...

Rondo's WS/48 last season is irrelevant in my view. He was awful after returning from a serious injury. Those performances / stats should be thrown out the window. Not indicative of what Rondo brings to the table.

A lot of that difference this season in Rondo's WS/48 is due to his scoring efficiency. It is unclear whether that is down to the broken bone in his hand that he suffered right before the season or whether this is some permanent decline. Rather than rushing to judgement ... better off staying patient and seeing whether the hand injury is playing a role or not.

[KeepRondo]

[Melo's WS/48 has remained above .100 since the third year of his career. In 2012-13 with a good team his WS/48 was .184. Last year, with a bad team, his WS/48 was .172. That's a difference of .012, much like Pierce's differential between good teams and bad teams. So far the difference between Rondo's average WS/48 from 2007-08 to 2012-13 and Rondo's average WS/48 from 2013 to now is almost a staggering .100.

Just to continue on from my post above ...

Rondo's WS/48 last season is irrelevant in my view. He was awful after returning from a serious injury. Those performances / stats should be thrown out the window. Not indicative of what Rondo brings to the table.

A lot of that difference this season in Rondo's WS/48 is due to his scoring efficiency. It is unclear whether that is down to the broken bone in his hand that he suffered right before the season or whether this is some permanent decline. Rather than rushing to judgement ... better off staying patient and seeing whether the hand injury is playing a role or not.

What this poster wrote. Hopefully Rondo can find his mid range jumper again. I think this is the difference from 2011 Rondo and 2014.

[Chris22]

[Melo's WS/48 has remained above .100 since the third year of his career. In 2012-13 with a good team his WS/48 was .184. Last year, with a bad team, his WS/48 was .172. That's a difference of .012, much like Pierce's differential between good teams and bad teams. So far the difference between Rondo's average WS/48 from 2007-08 to 2012-13 and Rondo's average WS/48 from 2013 to now is almost a staggering .100.

Just to continue on from my post above ...

Rondo's WS/48 last season is irrelevant in my view. He was awful after returning from a serious injury. Those performances / stats should be thrown out the window. Not indicative of what Rondo brings to the table.

A lot of that difference this season in Rondo's WS/48 is due to his scoring efficiency. It is unclear whether that is down to the broken bone in his hand that he suffered right before the season or whether this is some permanent decline. Rather than rushing to judgement ... better off staying patient and seeing whether the hand injury is playing a role or not.

The hand injury is not keeping Rondo from staying in front of his man on defense.

Maybe he should learn to shoot left handed.

[Roy H.]

Without getting into the strengths / weaknesses of win shares as an analytic...  How many players don't fit the description "[Player's] ability to win games diminishes significantly without the help of stars"?

In the last 35 years or so, the three players I've seen who I think could come closest to winning almost single-handedly were Larry Bird, Hakeem Olajuwon, and Tim Duncan.  Obviously, those guys all needed help, too, but those are the three guys who I think could have won surrounded by a completely average supporting cast.

[indeedproceed]

Yah the thread title should read, "Celtics ability to win games diminishes significantly without the help of stars"

[TheFlex]

[Melo's WS/48 has remained above .100 since the third year of his career. In 2012-13 with a good team his WS/48 was .184. Last year, with a bad team, his WS/48 was .172. That's a difference of .012, much like Pierce's differential between good teams and bad teams. So far the difference between Rondo's average WS/48 from 2007-08 to 2012-13 and Rondo's average WS/48 from 2013 to now is almost a staggering .100.

Just to continue on from my post above ...

Rondo's WS/48 last season is irrelevant in my view. He was awful after returning from a serious injury. Those performances / stats should be thrown out the window. Not indicative of what Rondo brings to the table.

A lot of that difference this season in Rondo's WS/48 is due to his scoring efficiency. It is unclear whether that is down to the broken bone in his hand that he suffered right before the season or whether this is some permanent decline. Rather than rushing to judgement ... better off staying patient and seeing whether the hand injury is playing a role or not.

Rondo's WS/48 was actually better last season than it has been this season.

I agree scoring efficiency has a lot to do with it. I am with you re: patience. But there's not much time left for Rondo to make his case before we have to decide to pay him or not.

Without getting into the strengths / weaknesses of win shares as an analytic...  How many players don't fit the description "[Player's] ability to win games diminishes significantly without the help of stars"?

In the last 35 years or so, the three players I've seen who I think could come closest to winning almost single-handedly were Larry Bird, Hakeem Olajuwon, and Tim Duncan.  Obviously, those guys all needed help, too, but those are the three guys who I think could have won surrounded by a completely average supporting cast.

Take out the word "significantly" and there isn't a single star who is immune to the pitfalls of lesser teammates. Put in the word "significantly" and there are a lot of stars whose impact in terms of individual wins contributed remains largely unchanged regardless of bad teammates.

Of course these stats are biased against Rondo because he is not a scorer. But my original theory is that Rondo's style of play is not suitable for a franchise player on your typical constructed NBA club.

[TheFlex]

Yah the thread title should read, "Celtics ability to win games diminishes significantly without the help of stars"

So Rondo's consistency in contributing to victory is not more  volatile than that of other max/near-max stars?

[LarBrd33]

It's certainly interesting.  What does it mean that Carmelo Anthony made the playoffs his first 10 years in the league as his team's best player and yet Rondo is well on his way to going 0-2? 

I think we're discovering more and more that Rondo, despite the lofty statistics, does not impact the game in the way we want him to.  Regardless of whether or not he's surrounded by stars or bums, he's going to dominate the ball and rack up assists.  When the players around him are good, the team wins.  When the players around him are bad, the team loses.   This was crucial to the main debate many of us had for years about whether or not Rondo was a star-level player who you could build a team around.  It doesn't seem he is.

[Monkhouse]

It's certainly interesting.  What does it mean that Carmelo Anthony made the playoffs his first 10 years in the league as his team's best player and yet Rondo is well on his way to going 0-2? 

I think we're discovering more and more that Rondo, despite the lofty statistics, does not impact the game in the way we want him to.  Regardless of whether or not he's surrounded by stars or bums, he's going to dominate the ball and rack up assists.  When the players around him are good, the team wins.  When the players around him are bad, the team loses.   This was crucial to the main debate many of us had for years about whether or not Rondo was a star-level player who you could build a team around.  It doesn't seem he is.

It means pair the two of them together.

[GreenFaith1819]

So does CP3, Westbrook, Wall and Co.

All great PGs need stars, and Rondo's no different.

Except that CP3 and Westbrook have had Blake, DeAndre, Tyson, David West, Durant, and Serge - all in their primes.

Rondo's had KG, Ray and Paul - all past their primes. Rondo's had a broke down KG, and a supposedly defensively-challenged Ray....and won WITH them - not BECAUSE of them.

And so far, I don't think we'll see CP3 or Westbrook's teams come out the West - at least this year.

And their windows, while still open - are getting smaller every year.

Why do we continue to isolate Rondo on this Blog and let the other supposed Star PGs get a free pass?