Should we start Smart over Rondo?

[Tr1boy]

Can we just agree that Rondo is a good player but that he's not the type that is going to take over a game offensively or lockdown the opposing team's best guard? We can win with Rondo but he's just never going to average more than 15 pts/game. We need at least two very good to excellent scorers and a rim protector. If the rim protector is also a great scorer that would be great but big men like that don't really exist anymore, the offensive bigs are now usually PFs who aren't great at D. Of course, they could also be one of those teams that goes small all the time but eventually you need some kind of interior D to be a contender.

The Celtics are still in asset collection mode. Once they get another star they can start thinking more along the lines of how all the pieces fit on the court together.

Agreed.  Then what should be also agreeable is that he is not a max type of player(though he thinks he is)

Lowry makes 12 million a year and took a paycut to stay in a winning environment. Tony Parker who also makes the same. Rondo is not better than either players

[SHAQATTACK]

He may have to next year , if Rondo becomes a Laker.

[KGs Knee]

Lowry makes 12 million a year and took a paycut to stay in a winning environment.

I'm guessing you don't understand what the term "paycut" actually means.  Not really surprising though.

Last season Lowry made $6m, this year he is making $12m.  That means he received a 100% raise.  I don't think that fits anyone's definition of "paycut".

[Celtics18]

Forget about this subject for a second. For the Rondo fanatics , please answer

Vs the raps, If Rondo was so magical, why doesn't he guard Lowry and stop him? 

If he was so magical, why doesn't he score the last 3 baskets and bulldoze our way for a win?

Kind of like what Lowry did for the Raptors.

Rondo is good at taking care of his stats.  But wins are more important.  The 43 pt vs the HEat is nice to mention over and over again, but we didn't win that game.  If Rondo thinks he is one of the top pg's and top player in this league (like some fans here think), he has to know how to win.

Which player would like to see replace Rondo as our starting point guard?

If the answer is Marcus Smart, he's not going to win us every game.  Nor is Kyle Lowry.  I don't think anyone is saying Rondo is "magical," but the mythical player you want to replace him with does appear to need to possess magical qualities.

Unfortunately, humans aren't magic.  Not even top level professional athletes.  Based on your desire for someone with supernatural abilities as the leader of our favorite basketball team. you will probably always be disappointed.

[D.o.s.]

I just realized that if we started Smart over Rondo we'd have a four armed point guard that would be 12 feet tall.

There is literally no downside to this.

[mmmmm]

C'mon, guys.  We should all know by now that rebounds and assists are empty stats only accrued by selfish ballhogs.

Give me the kind of team player who takes twenty shots a game and doesn't do anything else on the floor. 

Because, outside shooting is really all that matters in the game of basketball.  They should do away with all this 5 on 5 team nonsense and just turn the NBA into a league of H.O.R.S.E.

Assists are achieved by player movement, picks,  screens, cuts, ball movement, dribble penetration to get good shots. 

The guy who gets the last pass gets the credit.   Aint no stats for player movement, picks,  screens, cuts, ball movement, dribble penetration.

No, the guy who makes the last pass gets credited for an assist IF his pass directly leads to a made shot.  The guy who makes the actual shot gets credited for a made shot.  I do agree that it is a shame that the guy who sets a great pick doesn't get a stat credited for that -- though I think there are some analysts who do track that for use by teams.

Yes, a shot opportunity is created by more than just the pass.  It is indeed created by player and ball movement and picks, etc., as well as the actual pass.  But none of those contribute more - influence the defense  more -- to shot creation than the movement, vision and passing accuracy of the player who has the ball in his hand.  He is the player the defense is watching the most and responding to the most. 

It is a measured fact that not all players are equal at creating shot opportunities (whether directly shooting or by way of assist) for their team per touch of the ball.  This can be seen with NBA player tracking data which tells us how often players touch the ball, how often they shoot and make the shot, how often they pass and how often their teammates get shot opportunities directly as a result from passes they make.   

We also know that the efficiency of shots from assist opportunities from different players is not equal.  In other words, the increase/decrease in FG% when shooting off the passes of some players is different from the change off passes from other players.

These facts tell us that assist-opportunity creation is an actual skill that players have to varying degree.

And the numbers for Rondo -- the amount of shots his team generates per his touch of the ball and the increase in efficiency of those shots compared to shots created otherwise -- tell us that he is elite at this skill.   In fact, he literally is at a level with this skill that he has only a couple of peers in the NBA who compare in this.

These may sound like obscure 'advanced stats analytics' to some, but these stats are strongly confirming the consensus "eye test".

'Directly leading to a made shot' is applied very loosely in the Nba.   Pass into the post.  Couple of fakes, turnaround hook shot.  You get an assist.

Pass to a wide open guy,  who has just run off multiple screens to get open.  Assist.

It isn't always the fault or credit to the guy who makes the last pass, but rather the teamplay that led to the final pass.

It is convenient for you to assert that (the bit in bold) since it allows you to waive your hands and completely dismiss the value of what Rondo brings to the court, but do you have any actual data to characterize just HOW 'loosely' the standard is applied?

Asserting that doesn't make it true.

While there is almost certainly some variance in how the assist stat is scored, my experience is that it is probably applied a LOT more consistently than you are trying to imply.   I think that if you had every NBA stat scorer independently score every assist play, that they would probably agree on the ruling the vast majority of the time.  Probably not 100%, but I would not be surprised if the number was well over 90%.

[mmmmm]

option 2:  Rondo is traded for a starting center and we start Smart and AB.

I see this as the best route, but our trade options are limited. The one that probably fits the best would be Detroit. Something like...

Rondo
Wallace
1st rd pick 2015 (LAC)

for

Monroe
Jennings
Butler
Jerebko (expiring deal)
1st rd pick 2015
1st rd pick 2017

Rondo would likely re-sign since it's not a small market and he would be alongside Smith.

We would start Smart, allowing him to further gain experience. Monroe would immediately start alongside Sullinger providing better roster balance. His game, particularly his good passing, seems like an excellent fit in Stevens' offense and would give us a trio of good passing bigs along with Olynyk and Sullinger. Jennings value might be able to be rehabilitated like Crawford's was, which could provide a decent return as his contract would be reasonable (8M) and expiring next season. Butler's deal is not expiring either (2 years left), but at only 4.5M it's also easier to potentially trade than Wallace's would. Plus, Butler has a lot more left in the tank than the running on fumes Wallace. We dump Wallace's contract. We move up significantly in the 2015pick swap, likely from the late 20's to mid-teens, and add an extra 1st pick in 2017.

This, however, can't be accomplished until mid-December because of the restrictions of signed players.

That deal almost certainly will never happen.

1) Monroe is on his Qualifying Offer.  Among other things, that means he has "no-trade" power.  Why would he want to go to a team that unloads Rondo -- a PG who could probably get Monroe a TON of easy buckets?

2) Also because of the QO, any team that gets Monroe via trade does NOT get his Bird Rights.  Monroe is a pure, unrestricted FA next summer.  So trading for Monroe gives you NO negotiating advantage towards signing him next summer.

There is literally no reason to give up any significant assets to trade for Monroe when you can -- IF he even wants to come here -- sign him for simple money next Summer.

Detroit has no real leverage.  No one is going to give up big assets for a one-year rental of Monroe -- plus he controls where he goes.

If you really want to try to lure Monroe, your best bet is to make sure you have a roster that he will find attractive.   For a player like Monroe, the Celtic roster would almost certainly look more attractive with a signed Rondo on it.

Whether Monroe ends up as a Celtic comes down to two very simple things: 

(a) Does Danny want him?  and
(b) Does Monroe want to come to Boston?   

As long as BOTH those things are true, then Monroe WILL be a Celtic next year.  If just ONE of those things is not, then he won't.

No trade necessary.

That doesn't rule out trading for him before next Summer - but if so, it won't be by sending any big important assets for him.

You think Monroe would rather play in Detroit where they already have Drummond and Smith clogging up not only space, but minutes? If anything, I think he would want to be traded to a place like Boston where he would start, get heavy minutes, and showcase himself off for potential suitors.

I think Monroe losing his Bird rights in being dealt is pretty much irrelevant. Clearly Detroit doesn't have him in his longterm plans, so them re-signing him is extremely unlikely to happen. The reason he accepted the qualifying offer in the first place is to be unrestricted after this year. Nothing will change in what Detroit offered and what Monroe wants.

It's ironic that you stated...

Detroit has no real leverage. No one is going to give up big assets for a one-year rental of Monroe -- plus he controls where he goes.

Doesn't the same thing apply to Rondo? Only difference being that the NBA is full of PG's and rumor has it Rondo wouldn't not re-sign in a small market (see Sarcamento rumor).

1) I never said that Monroe "would rather play in Detroit".    I stated that he has yes/no control over whether he gets traded to wherever.

2) Monroe losing his Bird Rights is VERY relevant to any team that traded for him because they would not have a negotiating advantage over any other team when it came to retaining him.   Bird Rights are worth tens of millions of dollars difference in what kind of contract you can offer, a 20% longer potential contract term and even a potential No-Trade clause.   Whether you get those rights with a player dramatically changes their value in trade.

3) No, the same thing does NOT apply to Rondo because the Celtics HAVE Bird Rights on Rondo.   That means that they will have a huge negotiating advantage for retaining Rondo next summer if they keep him to that point and they can be transferred with Rondo if they decide to trade him before the deadline.  That greatly boosts Rondo's value right now over if he was just playing on the QO, like Monroe.

[mmmmm]

Can we just agree that Rondo is a good player but that he's not the type that is going to take over a game offensively or lockdown the opposing team's best guard? We can win with Rondo but he's just never going to average more than 15 pts/game. We need at least two very good to excellent scorers and a rim protector. If the rim protector is also a great scorer that would be great but big men like that don't really exist anymore, the offensive bigs are now usually PFs who aren't great at D. Of course, they could also be one of those teams that goes small all the time but eventually you need some kind of interior D to be a contender.

The Celtics are still in asset collection mode. Once they get another star they can start thinking more along the lines of how all the pieces fit on the court together.

If we need that much plus Rondo, that means you can't give him a max salary
(that is, those 2 scorers must at least defend average and the protector have average offense)
Rondo isn't a bad player, but a max salary is much overpaid
i think his best ability is the rebound, as for assist, if you don't shoot (or can't shoot) and only focus on passing it's easier to get more assist while other guard's ability is lean to score more

The part in bold simply isn't true.

Even if Danny signs Rondo to a full max contract next summer (18.8M per for the first year, 5 years, 7% raises) the Celtics will STILL have the financial means to acquire at least one and possibly even two other high-priced players over the next two seasons.   Exactly 'when' that would happen will depend on the trade and free agent markets and how some issues (such as whether Green opts in/out) resolve.  But signing Rondo to a max in no way prevents Danny from acquiring other high-priced talent over the next couple of seasons.

[mmmmm]

I just realized that if we started Smart over Rondo we'd have a four armed point guard that would be 12 feet tall.

There is literally no downside to this.

LOL - is the NBA ready for Tharks?

[D.o.s.]

every possession is a post up.

[Evantime34]

More often than not Turner runs the point for the second unit. If he isn't even tasked with getting the second team into the offense I'm not sure how he would be ready to get the first team into it.

[BballTim]

I just realized that if we started Smart over Rondo we'd have a four armed point guard that would be 12 feet tall.

There is literally no downside to this.

 Other than gravity...

[Tr1boy]

Can we just agree that Rondo is a good player but that he's not the type that is going to take over a game offensively or lockdown the opposing team's best guard? We can win with Rondo but he's just never going to average more than 15 pts/game. We need at least two very good to excellent scorers and a rim protector. If the rim protector is also a great scorer that would be great but big men like that don't really exist anymore, the offensive bigs are now usually PFs who aren't great at D. Of course, they could also be one of those teams that goes small all the time but eventually you need some kind of interior D to be a contender.

The Celtics are still in asset collection mode. Once they get another star they can start thinking more along the lines of how all the pieces fit on the court together.

If we need that much plus Rondo, that means you can't give him a max salary
(that is, those 2 scorers must at least defend average and the protector have average offense)
Rondo isn't a bad player, but a max salary is much overpaid
i think his best ability is the rebound, as for assist, if you don't shoot (or can't shoot) and only focus on passing it's easier to get more assist while other guard's ability is lean to score more

The part in bold simply isn't true.

Even if Danny signs Rondo to a full max contract next summer (18.8M per for the first year, 5 years, 7% raises) the Celtics will STILL have the financial means to acquire at least one and possibly even two other high-priced players over the next two seasons.   Exactly 'when' that would happen will depend on the trade and free agent markets and how some issues (such as whether Green opts in/out) resolve.  But signing Rondo to a max in no way prevents Danny from acquiring other high-priced talent over the next couple of seasons.

Most teams that have three players making near max = rest of the lineup scrubs\rookies.  And how many teams built this way win rings? Unless you got lebron, wade, bosh

Rondo imo is not a max player.  Even bosh, wade and lebron on their own and without another all star was able to get their teams into the playoffs. Rondo should prove he can do this first before asking for max.  Not pull another kevin love.

[nickagneta]

Winner of most asinine thread of the year. Funny how these type of threads keep getting made by the same three or four people who then happen to be antagonists to massively stupid proportions in the threads.

Trolling anyone?

[mmmmm]

Can we just agree that Rondo is a good player but that he's not the type that is going to take over a game offensively or lockdown the opposing team's best guard? We can win with Rondo but he's just never going to average more than 15 pts/game. We need at least two very good to excellent scorers and a rim protector. If the rim protector is also a great scorer that would be great but big men like that don't really exist anymore, the offensive bigs are now usually PFs who aren't great at D. Of course, they could also be one of those teams that goes small all the time but eventually you need some kind of interior D to be a contender.

The Celtics are still in asset collection mode. Once they get another star they can start thinking more along the lines of how all the pieces fit on the court together.

If we need that much plus Rondo, that means you can't give him a max salary
(that is, those 2 scorers must at least defend average and the protector have average offense)
Rondo isn't a bad player, but a max salary is much overpaid
i think his best ability is the rebound, as for assist, if you don't shoot (or can't shoot) and only focus on passing it's easier to get more assist while other guard's ability is lean to score more

The part in bold simply isn't true.

Even if Danny signs Rondo to a full max contract next summer (18.8M per for the first year, 5 years, 7% raises) the Celtics will STILL have the financial means to acquire at least one and possibly even two other high-priced players over the next two seasons.   Exactly 'when' that would happen will depend on the trade and free agent markets and how some issues (such as whether Green opts in/out) resolve.  But signing Rondo to a max in no way prevents Danny from acquiring other high-priced talent over the next couple of seasons.

Most teams that have three players making near max = rest of the lineup scrubs\rookies.  And how many teams built this way win rings? Unless you got lebron, wade, bosh

Umm… MOST title teams have been structured that way.

The salary cap has moved around and what constitutes a 'max' contract has moved around, but looking back over the title teams since 2000, most have been structured with 2 or 3 guys earning at least twice as much as anybody else on the roster.  Even the 2003 Spurs (Duncan, Robinson, Smith) were structured that way and the 2007 Spurs were close to that structure (a 4th guy, Brent Barry, earned a salary midway between their big 3 and everybody else.  But their 'big 3' (Duncan, Parker, Manu) earned way, way more than 'everybody else').

Some more recent examples:

2007 Duncan, Parker, Manu (Barry getting mid-level)
2008 Garnett, Pierce, Allen
2009 Bryant, Gasol, Odom
2010 Bryant, Gasol, Bynum (Odom getting mid-level)
2012 Bosh, James, Wade
2013 Bosh, James, Wade
2014 Parker, Duncan, Splitter (Manu getting mid-level)

It's true that in the last Spurs case, none of the three were getting 'max' money -- but they were significantly higher paid than the majority of the roster, so the pattern is essentially the same, just with a lower overall budget.

Dallas in 2011 spread the wealth a bit, with Dirk getting 17M but then 5 other guys getting between 7M - 12M.

The most even distribution of salary was with the 2004 Pistons, with Rip as the highest paid at 6.5M and 8 players getting 3.9M or more.

Spreading the wealth evenly didn't result in a longer reign as a top team.

All that said, whether having 2 or 3 high priced players is or is not the best model for building a contender is irrelevant to the fact that signing Rondo to a max contract in no way will prevent Danny from building to that model if he can and thinks it is the way to go, which is the point I was making.

Rondo imo is not a max player.  Even bosh, wade and lebron on their own and without another all star was able to get their teams into the playoffs. Rondo should prove he can do this first before asking for max.  Not pull another kevin love.

Well, your opinion on whether Rondo is or is not a max player is noted and not surprising, but again it has nothing to do with the fact that signing him to a max contract would in no way prevent Danny from adding one or two more high priced players to the team over the next year or two, via trade or free agency, which is the point I was making.