Should we start Smart over Rondo?

[Tr1boy]

C'mon, guys.  We should all know by now that rebounds and assists are empty stats only accrued by selfish ballhogs.

Give me the kind of team player who takes twenty shots a game and doesn't do anything else on the floor. 

Because, outside shooting is really all that matters in the game of basketball.  They should do away with all this 5 on 5 team nonsense and just turn the NBA into a league of H.O.R.S.E.

Assists are achieved by player movement, picks,  screens, cuts, ball movement, dribble penetration to get good shots. 

The guy who gets the last pass gets the credit.   Aint no stats for player movement, picks,  screens, cuts, ball movement, dribble penetration.

Exactly. 

[TheFlex]

Forget about this subject for a second. For the Rondo fanatics , please answer

Vs the raps, If Rondo was so magical, why doesn't he guard Lowry and stop him? 

If he was so magical, why doesn't he score the last 3 baskets and bulldoze our way for a win?

Kind of like what Lowry did for the Raptors.

Rondo is good at taking care of his stats.  But wins are more important.  The 43 pt vs the HEat is nice to mention over and over again, but we didn't win that game.  If Rondo thinks he is one of the top pg's and top player in this league (like some fans here think), he has to know how to win.

You hate Rondo and your posts are ridiculous. For the 20th time in this thread, the guy is nearly averaging a triple double through 4 games. Yet, you want to focus on why he wasn't guarding Kyle Lowery the other night. So I don't get it, do the players now decide who they are guarding on the court? Why bother having a coach? And you seem to think it is Rondo's fault that the team is 1-3,not the fact that this team couldn't stop 5-foot 8-inch me from driving down the lane and scoring an uncontested layup because its interior defense is pitiful. You are ridiculous and it is threads like this that have pretty much driven me away from this blog. Drivel like this has made it impossible to stay here.

Then dont come.

You just like others keep making excuses for rondo. All the glory that you can only feel right now is triple doubles vs actually winning games. Blame ko, sully etc for poor interior defense , when rondo alot of times loses focus on guarding his man. In addition you think the raps are more stacked than us?? They didnt even have val nor johnson and they still won

Dont blame all of this on everyone else. But also dont glorify a player for getting his stats, when in the end we lose anyways. 

Bottom line, simple as it gets. Lets win. If rondo figures out to not get some of his stats , gets others more involved by letting them be facilatators then do that. If instead of focusing to grabbing defensive rebounds (others usually get anyways) vs sticking to his man like glue, do that .Figure it out like most good players in this league can.

His stats are good for the past 2 and a half seasons now? But it doesnt equal wins. Figure it out

For a whole one and half of those years he was either injured or recovering from injury...?

Fact of the matter is that it's almost impossible for Rondo to get his teammates much more involved. When Rondo is on the floor, we're a better team, period. That should be clear after the three guard lineup worked to perfection against Dallas. And it should also be clear when Rondo is among the lead leaders not only in assists but assist opportunities and points created by assists as well. After three games he was 15th in the league in time of possession at 6.7 minutes per game... less than CP3, Tony Parker and John Wall among others.

We aren't winning games because our team simply isn't good. And there are few players in this league who could replace Rondo and make it seem much better.

[Tr1boy]

Then how did the raps beat us with similar talent level??

[mmmmm]

C'mon, guys.  We should all know by now that rebounds and assists are empty stats only accrued by selfish ballhogs.

Give me the kind of team player who takes twenty shots a game and doesn't do anything else on the floor. 

Because, outside shooting is really all that matters in the game of basketball.  They should do away with all this 5 on 5 team nonsense and just turn the NBA into a league of H.O.R.S.E.

Assists are achieved by player movement, picks,  screens, cuts, ball movement, dribble penetration to get good shots. 

The guy who gets the last pass gets the credit.   Aint no stats for player movement, picks,  screens, cuts, ball movement, dribble penetration.

No, the guy who makes the last pass gets credited for an assist IF his pass directly leads to a made shot.  The guy who makes the actual shot gets credited for a made shot.  I do agree that it is a shame that the guy who sets a great pick doesn't get a stat credited for that -- though I think there are some analysts who do track that for use by teams.

Yes, a shot opportunity is created by more than just the pass.  It is indeed created by player and ball movement and picks, etc., as well as the actual pass.  But none of those contribute more - influence the defense  more -- to shot creation than the movement, vision and passing accuracy of the player who has the ball in his hand.  He is the player the defense is watching the most and responding to the most. 

It is a measured fact that not all players are equal at creating shot opportunities (whether directly shooting or by way of assist) for their team per touch of the ball.  This can be seen with NBA player tracking data which tells us how often players touch the ball, how often they shoot and make the shot, how often they pass and how often their teammates get shot opportunities directly as a result from passes they make.   

We also know that the efficiency of shots from assist opportunities from different players is not equal.  In other words, the increase/decrease in FG% when shooting off the passes of some players is different from the change off passes from other players.

These facts tell us that assist-opportunity creation is an actual skill that players have to varying degree.

And the numbers for Rondo -- the amount of shots his team generates per his touch of the ball and the increase in efficiency of those shots compared to shots created otherwise -- tell us that he is elite at this skill.   In fact, he literally is at a level with this skill that he has only a couple of peers in the NBA who compare in this.

These may sound like obscure 'advanced stats analytics' to some, but these stats are strongly confirming the consensus "eye test".

[mmmmm]

Then how did the raps beat us with similar talent level??

We put Evan Turner in the game for a small handful of minutes.

That is, literally, more than the difference by far in why we lost the game.

In both the Dallas and the Toronto games, our starters posted positive numbers on the scoreboard.  The problem is, our bench -- and in particular Turner -- sent the team way negative each time the starters got subbed out.

This is very easy to see and confirm by simply looking at the game play logs to see who was on the floor when the scoreboard tilted heavily in the other team's favor.

[mmmmm]

option 2:  Rondo is traded for a starting center and we start Smart and AB.

I see this as the best route, but our trade options are limited. The one that probably fits the best would be Detroit. Something like...

Rondo
Wallace
1st rd pick 2015 (LAC)

for

Monroe
Jennings
Butler
Jerebko (expiring deal)
1st rd pick 2015
1st rd pick 2017

Rondo would likely re-sign since it's not a small market and he would be alongside Smith.

We would start Smart, allowing him to further gain experience. Monroe would immediately start alongside Sullinger providing better roster balance. His game, particularly his good passing, seems like an excellent fit in Stevens' offense and would give us a trio of good passing bigs along with Olynyk and Sullinger. Jennings value might be able to be rehabilitated like Crawford's was, which could provide a decent return as his contract would be reasonable (8M) and expiring next season. Butler's deal is not expiring either (2 years left), but at only 4.5M it's also easier to potentially trade than Wallace's would. Plus, Butler has a lot more left in the tank than the running on fumes Wallace. We dump Wallace's contract. We move up significantly in the 2015pick swap, likely from the late 20's to mid-teens, and add an extra 1st pick in 2017.

This, however, can't be accomplished until mid-December because of the restrictions of signed players.

That deal almost certainly will never happen.

1) Monroe is on his Qualifying Offer.  Among other things, that means he has "no-trade" power.  Why would he want to go to a team that unloads Rondo -- a PG who could probably get Monroe a TON of easy buckets?

2) Also because of the QO, any team that gets Monroe via trade does NOT get his Bird Rights.  Monroe is a pure, unrestricted FA next summer.  So trading for Monroe gives you NO negotiating advantage towards signing him next summer.

There is literally no reason to give up any significant assets to trade for Monroe when you can -- IF he even wants to come here -- sign him for simple money next Summer.

Detroit has no real leverage.  No one is going to give up big assets for a one-year rental of Monroe -- plus he controls where he goes.

If you really want to try to lure Monroe, your best bet is to make sure you have a roster that he will find attractive.   For a player like Monroe, the Celtic roster would almost certainly look more attractive with a signed Rondo on it.

Whether Monroe ends up as a Celtic comes down to two very simple things: 

(a) Does Danny want him?  and
(b) Does Monroe want to come to Boston?   

As long as BOTH those things are true, then Monroe WILL be a Celtic next year.  If just ONE of those things is not, then he won't.

No trade necessary.

That doesn't rule out trading for him before next Summer - but if so, it won't be by sending any big important assets for him.

[obnoxiousmime]

Can we just agree that Rondo is a good player but that he's not the type that is going to take over a game offensively or lockdown the opposing team's best guard? We can win with Rondo but he's just never going to average more than 15 pts/game. We need at least two very good to excellent scorers and a rim protector. If the rim protector is also a great scorer that would be great but big men like that don't really exist anymore, the offensive bigs are now usually PFs who aren't great at D. Of course, they could also be one of those teams that goes small all the time but eventually you need some kind of interior D to be a contender.

The Celtics are still in asset collection mode. Once they get another star they can start thinking more along the lines of how all the pieces fit on the court together.

[inverselock]

C'mon, guys.  We should all know by now that rebounds and assists are empty stats only accrued by selfish ballhogs.

Give me the kind of team player who takes twenty shots a game and doesn't do anything else on the floor. 

Because, outside shooting is really all that matters in the game of basketball.  They should do away with all this 5 on 5 team nonsense and just turn the NBA into a league of H.O.R.S.E.

Assists are achieved by player movement, picks,  screens, cuts, ball movement, dribble penetration to get good shots. 

The guy who gets the last pass gets the credit.   Aint no stats for player movement, picks,  screens, cuts, ball movement, dribble penetration.

No, the guy who makes the last pass gets credited for an assist IF his pass directly leads to a made shot.  The guy who makes the actual shot gets credited for a made shot.  I do agree that it is a shame that the guy who sets a great pick doesn't get a stat credited for that -- though I think there are some analysts who do track that for use by teams.

Yes, a shot opportunity is created by more than just the pass.  It is indeed created by player and ball movement and picks, etc., as well as the actual pass.  But none of those contribute more - influence the defense  more -- to shot creation than the movement, vision and passing accuracy of the player who has the ball in his hand.  He is the player the defense is watching the most and responding to the most. 

It is a measured fact that not all players are equal at creating shot opportunities (whether directly shooting or by way of assist) for their team per touch of the ball.  This can be seen with NBA player tracking data which tells us how often players touch the ball, how often they shoot and make the shot, how often they pass and how often their teammates get shot opportunities directly as a result from passes they make.   

We also know that the efficiency of shots from assist opportunities from different players is not equal.  In other words, the increase/decrease in FG% when shooting off the passes of some players is different from the change off passes from other players.

These facts tell us that assist-opportunity creation is an actual skill that players have to varying degree.

And the numbers for Rondo -- the amount of shots his team generates per his touch of the ball and the increase in efficiency of those shots compared to shots created otherwise -- tell us that he is elite at this skill.   In fact, he literally is at a level with this skill that he has only a couple of peers in the NBA who compare in this.

These may sound like obscure 'advanced stats analytics' to some, but these stats are strongly confirming the consensus "eye test".

'Directly leading to a made shot' is applied very loosely in the Nba.   Pass into the post.  Couple of fakes, turnaround hook shot.  You get an assist.

Pass to a wide open guy,  who has just run off multiple screens to get open.  Assist.

It isn't always the fault or credit to the guy who makes the last pass, but rather the teamplay that led to the final pass.

[a_new_hope]

We need to go realllllly small. Cut Rondo (clearly a scrub) start Smart at center (because... wildcard!) and trade for Tyrion Lannister (no justification required). The rest of the team is immaterial to success. If you really love the game, you will instinctively "know" ... there is no other solution. Phew, now this thread can be safely closed.

[vinnie]

Then how did the raps beat us with similar talent level??

We put Evan Turner in the game for a small handful of minutes.

That is, literally, more than the difference by far in why we lost the game.

In both the Dallas and the Toronto games, our starters posted positive numbers on the scoreboard.  The problem is, our bench -- and in particular Turner -- sent the team way negative each time the starters got subbed out.

This is very easy to see and confirm by simply looking at the game play logs to see who was on the floor when the scoreboard tilted heavily in the other team's favor.

But isn't it Rondo's fault that Evan Turner was in the game?   

[Eddie20]

option 2:  Rondo is traded for a starting center and we start Smart and AB.

I see this as the best route, but our trade options are limited. The one that probably fits the best would be Detroit. Something like...

Rondo
Wallace
1st rd pick 2015 (LAC)

for

Monroe
Jennings
Butler
Jerebko (expiring deal)
1st rd pick 2015
1st rd pick 2017

Rondo would likely re-sign since it's not a small market and he would be alongside Smith.

We would start Smart, allowing him to further gain experience. Monroe would immediately start alongside Sullinger providing better roster balance. His game, particularly his good passing, seems like an excellent fit in Stevens' offense and would give us a trio of good passing bigs along with Olynyk and Sullinger. Jennings value might be able to be rehabilitated like Crawford's was, which could provide a decent return as his contract would be reasonable (8M) and expiring next season. Butler's deal is not expiring either (2 years left), but at only 4.5M it's also easier to potentially trade than Wallace's would. Plus, Butler has a lot more left in the tank than the running on fumes Wallace. We dump Wallace's contract. We move up significantly in the 2015pick swap, likely from the late 20's to mid-teens, and add an extra 1st pick in 2017.

This, however, can't be accomplished until mid-December because of the restrictions of signed players.

That deal almost certainly will never happen.

1) Monroe is on his Qualifying Offer.  Among other things, that means he has "no-trade" power.  Why would he want to go to a team that unloads Rondo -- a PG who could probably get Monroe a TON of easy buckets?

2) Also because of the QO, any team that gets Monroe via trade does NOT get his Bird Rights.  Monroe is a pure, unrestricted FA next summer.  So trading for Monroe gives you NO negotiating advantage towards signing him next summer.

There is literally no reason to give up any significant assets to trade for Monroe when you can -- IF he even wants to come here -- sign him for simple money next Summer.

Detroit has no real leverage.  No one is going to give up big assets for a one-year rental of Monroe -- plus he controls where he goes.

If you really want to try to lure Monroe, your best bet is to make sure you have a roster that he will find attractive.   For a player like Monroe, the Celtic roster would almost certainly look more attractive with a signed Rondo on it.

Whether Monroe ends up as a Celtic comes down to two very simple things: 

(a) Does Danny want him?  and
(b) Does Monroe want to come to Boston?   

As long as BOTH those things are true, then Monroe WILL be a Celtic next year.  If just ONE of those things is not, then he won't.

No trade necessary.

That doesn't rule out trading for him before next Summer - but if so, it won't be by sending any big important assets for him.

You think Monroe would rather play in Detroit where they already have Drummond and Smith clogging up not only space, but minutes? If anything, I think he would want to be traded to a place like Boston where he would start, get heavy minutes, and showcase himself off for potential suitors.

I think Monroe losing his Bird rights in being dealt is pretty much irrelevant. Clearly Detroit doesn't have him in his longterm plans, so them re-signing him is extremely unlikely to happen. The reason he accepted the qualifying offer in the first place is to be unrestricted after this year. Nothing will change in what Detroit offered and what Monroe wants.

It's ironic that you stated...

Detroit has no real leverage. No one is going to give up big assets for a one-year rental of Monroe -- plus he controls where he goes.

Doesn't the same thing apply to Rondo? Only difference being that the NBA is full of PG's and rumor has it Rondo wouldn't not re-sign in a small market (see Sarcamento rumor).

[playdream]

Can we just agree that Rondo is a good player but that he's not the type that is going to take over a game offensively or lockdown the opposing team's best guard? We can win with Rondo but he's just never going to average more than 15 pts/game. We need at least two very good to excellent scorers and a rim protector. If the rim protector is also a great scorer that would be great but big men like that don't really exist anymore, the offensive bigs are now usually PFs who aren't great at D. Of course, they could also be one of those teams that goes small all the time but eventually you need some kind of interior D to be a contender.

The Celtics are still in asset collection mode. Once they get another star they can start thinking more along the lines of how all the pieces fit on the court together.

If we need that much plus Rondo, that means you can't give him a max salary
(that is, those 2 scorers must at least defend average and the protector have average offense)
Rondo isn't a bad player, but a max salary is much overpaid
i think his best ability is the rebound, as for assist, if you don't shoot (or can't shoot) and only focus on passing it's easier to get more assist while other guard's ability is lean to score more

[BballTim]

C'mon, guys.  We should all know by now that rebounds and assists are empty stats only accrued by selfish ballhogs.

Give me the kind of team player who takes twenty shots a game and doesn't do anything else on the floor. 

Because, outside shooting is really all that matters in the game of basketball.  They should do away with all this 5 on 5 team nonsense and just turn the NBA into a league of H.O.R.S.E.

Assists are achieved by player movement, picks,  screens, cuts, ball movement, dribble penetration to get good shots. 

The guy who gets the last pass gets the credit.   Aint no stats for player movement, picks,  screens, cuts, ball movement, dribble penetration.

  You could say the same thing about baskets, right? 5 guys do a total of 20 things that get a guy open for a shot and  one guy gets all the credit. What's the point?

[BballTim]

Forget about this subject for a second. For the Rondo fanatics , please answer

Vs the raps, If Rondo was so magical, why doesn't he guard Lowry and stop him? 

If he was so magical, why doesn't he score the last 3 baskets and bulldoze our way for a win?

Kind of like what Lowry did for the Raptors.

Rondo is good at taking care of his stats.  But wins are more important.  The 43 pt vs the HEat is nice to mention over and over again, but we didn't win that game.  If Rondo thinks he is one of the top pg's and top player in this league (like some fans here think), he has to know how to win.

  Two things worth pointing out in your talk about the Raptors game is a) we outscored the Raptors by 9 with Rondo playing and we were outscored by 12 points in the 11 minutes he was on the bench, yet you're trying to blame the loss on Rondo and his "not knowing how to win". And b) you're actually attacking Rondo because guys other players are guarding score points. Give it a rest.

[BballTim]

Can we just agree that Rondo is a good player but that he's not the type that is going to take over a game offensively or lockdown the opposing team's best guard? We can win with Rondo but he's just never going to average more than 15 pts/game.

  Nobody completely locks down an opposing team's best guard. Change that to something like "significantly limit the effectiveness of an opposing team's best guard" and I'd say that we've seen him do that many times. Likewise, we've seen him take over hundreds of games offensively.