seems about right. I think we'd be lucky to get a Top 10 pick for Rondo. #11 + Lawson makes sense.
Danny's asking price was supposedly a young emerging star and a draft pick or a couple of unprotected draft picks. I think "we'd be lucky to get a top 10 pick for him" is fairly far-fetched. As for this trade though, what's the point? We get a lesser pg who's almost Rondo's age and has a fairly large salary and a pick that's likely to yield a rotation level player or borderline starter.
You never know what a pick is going to yield. I'd be the devil's advocate here and argue that Lawson will be easier to build with, as he's the more conventional player of the two (has three point range and can score in a pinch).
I agree with this. I wouldn't trade Rondo for Lawson straight up because he's just a better player but the talent difference is somewhat offset by the additional flexibility you get with Lawson. Also, in addition to being a bit younger, Lawson's game will probably age better since he can actually make shots. Once Rondo's quickness goes his effectiveness is going to fall off a cliff. I don't think it's far fetched to say that Lawson will be a better player in 5 years, and that's when we're likely to be a contender.
Rondo's game will age better because so much of it is based on a high bbiq, great court vision and great passing skills. Lawson's game is much more likely to fall off a cliff than Rondo's. If Rondo couldn't get by without his quickness he never would have been able to put up decent numbers when he was recovering from knee surgery.
His superficial stats were decent but his efficiency/advanced stats declined pretty sharply. Rondo's a genius, but if you can't shoot or get by people off the dribble, you just aren't going to be a very effective offensive player. Rondo's win shares/48 minutes ranked 323rd out of 482 guys who played in the NBA this season.
His scoring was fairly inefficient, I don't think the assists (or the assist opportunities) are at all superficial. Despite all the obstacles this year (coming back in mid-season from a serious injury to a team that's floundering with many new teammates) he was still second in the league in points created by assists a game and the team still scored much more efficiently off of passes from Rondo than other opportunities. You're assuming that scoring is the only way to be an effective offensive player. That's not really the case.
But are assists/points off assists really a good measure of a point guard's worth? He gets a ton of them for sure, but part of the reason he gets so many is that he refuses to shoot. That might be the right play in his case because he's a bad shooter, but having a guy who teams know won't score causes problems for your offense. Since Rondo became the main guy in our offense, he's been near the top of the league in assists and the Celtics haven't had a single league average offense. Not one time. And that's with Rondo's supposedly ideal situation where he's surrounded by great shooters (except last year obviously). I don't think the only way to be an effective offensive player is to be a good scorer, but I do think it's hard to be an effective offensive player if you're an atrocious scorer, which Rondo certainly was last year. Teams need to at least consider the possibility that you'll put the ball in the basket in order to maintain spacing.
I mean... it's been said before. If Lawson is averaging 17.6 points and 8.8 assists... and Rondo is averaging 11.7 points and 9.8 assists... does it really make any sense to gloat about Rondo's assists? I mean... assuming the assists lead to 2 pointers doesn't that just mean that Lawson is responsible for 35.2 points and Rondo is responsible for 31.3 points? Which would you really prefer?
Also if you're just looking at stats (points + rebounds + assists + steals ... subtract missed shots and turnovers), Lawson had an EFF of 19.6 last season (7th best PG). Rondo had an EFF of 17.2 (16th best PG). The best Rondo has ever played in his career (statistically) was 2012-13 when he was limited to 46 games. His EFF was 3rd amongst PGs... 21.3.
Lawson is 25 years old and while his FG% has gone down every year, his minutes, points, assists, rebounds and steals have gone up every year. Post-injury Rondo is 28 and probably past his prime at this point.
Still... Rondo is probably a better player... which is why Lawson + #11 seems somewhat fair market value. Still... no use in talking about it, because #1 - It's just some idea a sportswriter came up with off the top of his head and #2 - Rondo wouldn't re-sign in Denver...
Which is why the actual list of teams we could trade Rondo to is pretty slim. You have to rule out teams like the Kings who would actually give up talent for him. A top 4 pick isn't happening. Doubt Utah would give up #5 for him. We own #6. The reason I say "It would be hard getting a Top 10 pick for ROndo" is because the only team I could see actually giving up a top 10 pick that also happens to be a team Rondo would consider resigning for... is the Lakers with the #7.