Fire Ainge

[Casperian]

There's a little thing called statistics that always wins. You're crazy if you tanking is easy and acceptable.

If my math doesn't fail me, the Cavs had a ~0.0005% chance of winning specifically these 3 lotteries in 4 years. They had the 2nd and 8th best odds in '11, 3rd best in '12 (which they lost),  3rd best in '13 and 9th best in '14. That's pure, basic (and quick) math, not even accounting for certain external factors which should, in theory, make it even harder for them to achieve such a feat.

To put that in perspective, that's about a hundred times smaller than the chance for the 14th worst team to win the lottery in any given year.

In other words, they totally Han-Soloed the crap out of probability, and consequently, the credibility of the "all-out tanking" approach per se.

[manl_lui]

some of you probably already said it, but I just remembered, the Cavs had a better record that us and the teams it beat to get the #1..so exactly what did Ainge do?

[Eja117]

Ainge should have left when Doc did. Awful job with this rebuild. Zero reason why Rondo Bass Hump Bayless and the rest of those guys should have been on a rebuilding team. This squad needed to be blown up and Ainge didn't do it. Just an awful day to be a fan. Thank you Danny Ainge for wanting to compete and not be like the Sixers...I'm sure we will look back when Parker is lighting up the Celtics for 30 ppg and say that you made the right move!!!

Will this be after Parker moves down to Miami with his buddies or before?

[Fafnir]

There's a little thing called statistics that always wins. You're crazy if you tanking is easy and acceptable.

If my math doesn't fail me, the Cavs had a ~0.0005% chance of winning specifically these 3 lotteries in 4 years. They had the 2nd and 8th best odds in '11, 3rd best in '12 (which they lost),  3rd best in '13 and 9th best in '14. That's pure, basic (and quick) math, not even accounting for certain external factors which should, in theory, make it even harder for them to achieve such a feat.

To put that in perspective, that's about a hundred times smaller than the chance for the 14th worst team to win the lottery in any given year.

In other words, they totally Han-Soloed the crap out of probability, and consequently, the credibility of the "all-out tanking" approach per se.

The odds of any single scenario over 3 years is pretty minuscule, congrats every universe is unlikely?

Funny thing was, a single team moving past the C's was the single most likely scenario in the draft probabilities. The fact that it was the Cavs was unlikely, the fact that it happened the most likely outcome. From the C's perspective this is the scenario we should have been most prepared for.

[Casperian]

The odds of any single scenario over 3 years is pretty minuscule, congrats every universe is unlikely?

Funny thing was, a single team moving past the C's was the single most likely scenario in the draft probabilities. The fact that it was the Cavs was unlikely, the fact that it happened the most likely outcome. From the C's perspective this is the scenario we should have been most prepared for.

I'm not sure what your point is. That's not what I was talking about.

the Cavs had a ~0.0005% chance of winning specifically these 3 lotteries in 4 years

[GreenWarrior]

all tanking does is buy you an opportunity, it doesn't guarantee you anything. if this makes anyone uncomfortable maybe the NBA isn't for you.

but threads like this make me hate the fans that don't appreciate this team, their history and their legacy.

because if they did appreciate those things they would realize what a FREAKING BLESSING DANNY AINGE IS!

so we didn't get a top 3 pick in a draft that doesn't have 1 player in it that is going to turn this team around. so what?!? go root for whatever teams are in the finals. 

[the_Bird]

i think this thread is crazy,  but there is something to the idea that ainge tried to straddle the line too much and didn't lose enough games.   i'm not saying it's a right argument,  but it's certainly an interesting discussion and a legit critique.

This I kind of agree with. Well, I don't agree that it is a legitimate critique but it could be an interesting discussion. The real question is, what were the moves he could've made, and why didn't he make them, with the supposition that he knows what he's doing and has a plan. The sixth pick is a nut shot we haven't seen since 2007, but Danny Ainge has earned so much more faith than to despair about it for more than a minute or 60.

In an odd way, I think it's almost more likely that we become semi-relevant again next season than if we had ended up with a top-3 pick. 

Get a top-3 pick, and the most likely scenario is to do a complete rebuild around whoever you took, meaning that Rondo was likely traded for value (since he's unlikely to re-sign as a free agent for an extended rebuild).

With the #6 pick (and what appears to be a steep dropoff after #4), it seems more likely that Danny will pursue a trade for Love more aggressively and not trading Rondo.  Using some of those trade assets to help next year's squad, rather than saving them for further down the road. 

Cleveland can obviously get Love in a heartbeat if they offer up the #1, but I think Danny's likely to be very aggressive in his pursuit now.  Getting a 25/12 guy who can be the face of the franchise and is still only 25, he'll unload Sully and the #6 and some future picks to make that happen.  Which may or may not be the best course of action in the long term (time will tell), but it would likely at least get the team playing basketball into May next year.

[Fafnir]

The odds of any single scenario over 3 years is pretty minuscule, congrats every universe is unlikely?

Funny thing was, a single team moving past the C's was the single most likely scenario in the draft probabilities. The fact that it was the Cavs was unlikely, the fact that it happened the most likely outcome. From the C's perspective this is the scenario we should have been most prepared for.

I'm not sure what your point is. That's not what I was talking about.

the Cavs had a ~0.0005% chance of winning specifically these 3 lotteries in 4 years

The odds of any specific scenario occurring over 4 years is going to be very very low.

The odds of the most likely single scenario occurring. (top 3 stay in exact order) is 1.87804% No other outcome has a greater chance of occuring, any draft order is pretty much a 1 in 100 shot or worse of occurring.

The odds of the most likely scenario occurring 4 years in a row is (.01878)^4 = .0000124399%

The odds of the top team winning the lottery 4 year in a row is .390625%. That's also minuscule, it'd only be expected to occur once every 256 years.

The way the lottery is weighted every outcome is so unlikely you can throw out impressive looking percentages about how it "shouldn't" have happened.

Its called the Wyatt Earp effect.

[cman88]

this is why most people said that the Draft Lottery is a crap shoot. BUT we did get an asset. Ainge has a #6 pick, #17 pick several future picks and some nice young assets that he can hopefully throw at Minnesota to get Love just like we did when he got KG

there are several ways to rebuild.

[goCeltics]

danny has to land the picks, firing a gm for not winning a lotto is stupid, ainge value to the c's is his ablitly to select the right player or trade the right player, when ainge selects a bunch of busts with high lotto picks then fire him.

Think ainge is better than most at picking the right guy, he has a ring to show for it.

[Casperian]

The odds of any specific scenario occurring over 4 years is going to be very very low.

The odds of the most likely single scenario occurring. (top 3 stay in exact order) is 1.87804% No other outcome has a greater chance of occuring, any draft order is pretty much a 1 in 100 shot or worse of occurring.

The odds of the most likely scenario occurring 4 years in a row is (.01878)^4 = .0000124399%

The odds of the top team winning the lottery 4 year in a row is .390625%. That's also minuscule, it'd only be expected to occur once every 256 years.

The way the lottery is weighted every outcome is so unlikely you can throw out impressive looking percentages about how it "shouldn't" have happened.

Its called the Wyatt Earp effect.

And yet, it happened.

Don't take this the wrong way, Faf, but maybe you need glasses? Whatever it is you're trying to prove, it has no relevance to my post.

I guess I know what your problem is, though. You're confusing "possibility" with "probability". The mere fact that the Cavs participated in the lottery allows for the "possibility" of them winning it all. It's not impossible, just very, very, very unlikely. I said nothing about "possibility". I was talking about "probability".

I'll accept a TP as apology. Here, have one, too.

[pokeKingCurtis]

CB##### right now

[manl_lui]

all tanking does is buy you an opportunity, it doesn't guarantee you anything. if this makes anyone uncomfortable maybe the NBA isn't for you.

but threads like this make me hate the fans that don't appreciate this team, their history and their legacy.

because if they did appreciate those things they would realize what a FREAKING BLESSING DANNY AINGE IS!

so we didn't get a top 3 pick in a draft that doesn't have 1 player in it that is going to turn this team around. so what?!? go root for whatever teams are in the finals.

amen

[winsomme]

all tanking does is buy you an opportunity, it doesn't guarantee you anything. if this makes anyone uncomfortable maybe the NBA isn't for you.

but threads like this make me hate the fans that don't appreciate this team, their history and their legacy.

because if they did appreciate those things they would realize what a FREAKING BLESSING DANNY AINGE IS!

so we didn't get a top 3 pick in a draft that doesn't have 1 player in it that is going to turn this team around. so what?!? go root for whatever teams are in the finals.

I'm equally not crazy about the reaction to the reactionary posts.

The reality is that very few fans want Ainge to be fired, but there are many that saw what just happened coming all season and were arguing for Danny to better ensure a top pick. Yes, there are no guarantees in the lottery, and I would agree that there don't appear to be any prospects in the draft that will immediately turn a franchise around. Still, there is a definite drop off in VALUE of the picks as you move from top 3 down to where we are at 6.

There are many reports now that using our pick to acquire a current top player (eg Love) is going to be more difficult and will have to use more assets (if possible at all) took a big hit with us landing at 6.

This was a terrible season for the Cs and if we were going to suffer through this as part of a rebuild, Danny should have done more to ensure that the pick we ended up getting out of it was premium. That doesn't mean he should be fired or anything remotely extreme like that, but it is a legitimate criticism that many were levying right along...

[SHAQATTACK]

all tanking does is buy you an opportunity, it doesn't guarantee you anything. if this makes anyone uncomfortable maybe the NBA isn't for you.

but threads like this make me hate the fans that don't appreciate this team, their history and their legacy.

because if they did appreciate those things they would realize what a FREAKING BLESSING DANNY AINGE IS!

so we didn't get a top 3 pick in a draft that doesn't have 1 player in it that is going to turn this team around. so what?!? go root for whatever teams are in the finals.

I'm equally not crazy about the reaction to the reactionary posts.

The reality is that very few fans want Ainge to be fired, but there are many that saw what just happened coming all season and were arguing for Danny to better ensure a top pick. Yes, there are no guarantees in the lottery, and I would agree that there don't appear to be any prospects in the draft that will immediately turn a franchise around. Still, there is a definite drop off in VALUE of the picks as you move from top 3 down to where we are at 6.

There are many reports now that using our pick to acquire a current top player (eg Love) is going to be more difficult and will have to use more assets (if possible at all) took a big hit with us landing at 6.

This was a terrible season for the Cs and if we were going to suffer through this as part of a rebuild, Danny should have done more to ensure that the pick we ended up getting out of it was premium. That doesn't mean he should be fired or anything remotely extreme like that, but it is a legitimate criticism that many were levying right along...

TP.....well stated......Danny dropped the ball......plain and simple .