Ford's Celtics Big Board and who we get

[Boris Badenov]

ESPN has a lottery simulator:

http://espn.go.com/nba/lottery2014/mockdraft

Anyway this uses Ford's current big board for every team, so along with the lottery odds you can get his view of the Celtics' probable outcomes, if you just simulate many many lotteries, which I've done.

Here's a list of draft slots we could get, along with our chances of getting the slot and who we end up with. There's a lot less variability here than there was a few weeks ago.

1 (10.3%). Wiggins
2. (11.1%). Embiid or (rarely) Wiggins
3. (12%). Embiid or (very rarely) Exum or (very very rarely) Wiggins
5. (26%). Vonleh
6. (36%). Gordon or (rarely) Vonleh
7-8 (5%). Gordon.

Some interesting things:

1. The C's Big Board is according to Ford: Wiggins, Embiid, Exum, Parker, Vonleh, Gordon. This is different from a week or two ago.

2. In Ford's scenario we never get Parker. This is because if we pick in the top 3 we never prefer him to the other options, and if we pick 5th Parker is never available (i.e., he's top 4 on everyone else's board).

3. Most other teams have Parker top 2-3. UTA has him #1.

4. The only teams I've seen who Ford has picking someone other than Wiggins #1 are SAC, who picks Embiid and UTA who picks Parker. In those scenarios we get Wiggins if we have #2. These outcomes happen probably 1-2% of the time.

5. We get Gordon in a LOT of scenarios, because according to Ford we have him 5th and if we don't take him, he drops to 8th or 9th. So he's always available at 6, 7 or 8 if we draft there.

6. Even though we have Exum #3 we rarely get him, because if we pick 3 Embiid is available in a lot of scenarios.

7. If you use Ford's board info along with the odds, you have the C's getting Wiggins around 11% of the time, Embiid around 20% of the time, Exum rarely (2-3%?), Vonleh around 25-30% of the time and Gordon 35-40% of the time.

Anyway, I thought I'd share this just to add a little insight, assuming you think Ford knows anything. It tells us a little about who we might want to pick above us if we don't win, for example (UTA seems to be the best because they take someone #1 we have 4th on our list).

I can't say this covers all the possibilities, BTW. I simmed maybe 100-200 lotteries which should have revealed the most common outcomes, but there may be some weird outcomes I haven't seen.

And of course it's Ford's guesswork, not necessarily the truth. But I think it's pretty interesting how it all plays out.

Go Celts!

[Donoghus]

I hate the idea of Vonleh at #5 and extremely lukewarm on Gordon at #6 or #7.

God, I hope we crack the top 3.

[Kane3387]

TP. Really cool post.

[D.o.s.]

I hate the idea of Vonleh at #5 and extremely lukewarm on Gordon at #6 or #7.

God, I hope we crack the top 3.

[Boris Badenov]

I hate the idea of Vonleh at #5 and extremely lukewarm on Gordon at #6 or #7.

God, I hope we crack the top 3.

Another way to look at it: let's hope Minny *really* likes someone in that Vonleh/Gordon/Smart/Randle group.

[sofutomygaha]

I don't believe for a second that Exum is higher than Jabari Parker on the Celtics draft board.

[Evantime34]

I hate the idea of Vonleh at #5 and extremely lukewarm on Gordon at #6 or #7.

God, I hope we crack the top 3.

I really like Gordon but if we don't get a top 3 pick I think a trade might be the best course of action.

[The One]

TP. Really cool post.

I agree...sweet post!

[Quetzalcoatl]

It's different from a week ago because Exum completely proved himself and then some at the combine.  There is little bust potential coming out of him.  Parker's biggest weakness is his defense which is terrible and Exum's biggest weakness is jump shooting, which isn't even that bad and can easily be fixed.  I could go either way on this, but I would love either one of them on the Cs.  I think I'd give a slight edge to Exum, though.

Also, it's coming out that Parker is like 20 pounds overweight and is not taking his conditioning seriously.

[footey]

TPOP, good work.

[Lucky17]

Also, it's coming out that Parker is like 20 pounds overweight and is not taking his conditioning seriously.

LOL: it's such a historic draft, even the players themselves are tanking.

[Kane3387]

Also, it's coming out that Parker is like 20 pounds overweight and is not taking his conditioning seriously.

There's been no proof of this and could easily be garbage from a team hoping he falls.

[Mr October]

Nice work. Only 2 small surprises in there. exum over Parker, and Vonleh at 5 over Randle and Gordon.

No major surprises though. Let's get lucky! go Celtics!

[D.o.s.]

Also, it's coming out that Parker is like 20 pounds overweight and is not taking his conditioning seriously.

There's been no proof of this and could easily be garbage from a team hoping he falls.

I'd like to see a source

[CFAN38]

It's different from a week ago because Exum completely proved himself and then some at the combine.  There is little bust potential coming out of him.  Parker's biggest weakness is his defense which is terrible and Exum's biggest weakness is jump shooting, which isn't even that bad and can easily be fixed.  I could go either way on this, but I would love either one of them on the Cs.  I think I'd give a slight edge to Exum, though.

Also, it's coming out that Parker is like 20 pounds overweight and is not taking his conditioning seriously.

I know another SF who fell to the Cs do to conditioning concerns. http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/features/1998/weekly/980706/nba0706/a.html