I find the question of who we are going to get with number 17 to be more interesting than who we will pick with our still undetermined lottery pick.
It seems to me that there will be a bunch of good candidates to choose from. One of these guys might still be available.
Saric
Stauskas
Warren
Nurkic
Lavine
Anderson
Porzingis
Capela
McDaniels
Payne
I would be thrilled if any one of the top four names on that list is still available. I could deal with one of the rest.
Who else do folks like at that spot?
I would be OK with Saric at #5, so I would be ecstatic with him at #17 though I don't see it happening unless he commits to playing another year for Cibona. It might be a stretch even then.
I think your tiers are pretty legit. Out of the top tier, I'd say that Nurkic and Warren have the best chance at being around. I'd be very, very happy with either. I'd also be very, very happy with Porzingis. As for the C prospects, Porzingis's ceiling is only lower than Embiid and he has less bust potential.