chances of Embiid dropping to 5?

[Kane3387]

I can't see him dropping out of the top 2 right now, unless his back tests as really messed up.

Me too.....i d still take Embiid after Parker or Wiggins.

I say he goes #3

We get Randle or Gordon

None

[LooseCannon]

If Embiid is available at #5, it will probably be due to reasons not yet known or not yet existing that would make most posters here unwilling to take him at #5.

[slamtheking]

So what's bigger, the chance of Embiid dropping to 5, or the chance of the Celtics dropping below the 5th pick?

I was thinking the same thing.  If Embiid slipped to the fifth pick, C's would have slid back to the 6th pick.

can't see him slipping past #3 at the furthest

[saltlover]

I guess I'm in the minority here, but I think Embiid is way too big of a risk to be a slam dunk top 3 draftee, or even top 4.  He hasn't played basketball long.  Sure he has lots of potential, but will you be able to give him the minutes he needs to develop at the NBA?  And can he handle those minutes physically?  He already broke down after playing 20 minutes of basketball twice a week -- what's an NBA schedule going to do to him?

If he checks out physically at the draft camps with no restrictions, then fine, maybe it was a one-off injury that can happen to anyone who's running around and jumping into people.  But if four months out he's still limited, then to me that's too big of a risk when there's as much talent on the board.  At a certain spot in the draft, in the top 5-7 probably, he's worth the gamble.  But if you're picking at 3, you can't afford to miss unless you got pretty lucky in the lottery and are playing with house money.  If he flames out, that sets you back significantly, and he's more likely than any other name talked about in the top 5 to not make it.  Elite centers are rare, but I'm not sure the last time a team with an elite center even made the finals.

[indeedproceed]

The chances aren't really zero. DMC dropped, so did Wade and Drummond. But they're pretty much zero.

[Fafnir]

His back would have to be extremely bad for him to drop out of the top 4.

[TripleThreat]

I'll go with 5%. If the draft were tomorrow there's no way he makes it past #3 but I guess you never know what could happen between today and draft day.

[manl_lui]

like Noel dropping down last year? I'd say likely if there are health issues

[Celtics18]

The chances aren't really zero. DMC dropped, so did Wade and Drummond. But they're pretty much zero.

Did those guys drop?  I thought they were picked right around where they had been slotted to be picked pretty much all along. 

[Tr1boy]

Another question is if he drops to 5 will danny not even think twice and draft him?. At the  21st spot  he can afford to take a chance on sully. But with a top 5 pick , its kind of important not to screw things up.

If after the draft embiid battles with back injuries and never becomes as good as expected, but gordon and or vonleh end up being studs, that would really stink.

[Celtics18]

Another question is if he drops to 5 will danny not even think twice and draft him?. At the  21st spot  he can afford to take a chance on sully. But with a top 5 pick , its kind of important not to screw things up.

If after the draft embiid battles with back injuries and never becomes as good as expected, but gordon and or vonleh end up being studs, that would really stink.

There's risk regardless of who he picks.  Yeah, picking a bust would suck. 

[D.o.s.]

General consensus seems to be that Embiid's got too much potential to fall out of the top 5.

[D.o.s.]

The chances aren't really zero. DMC dropped, so did Wade and Drummond. But they're pretty much zero.

Did those guys drop?  I thought they were picked right around where they had been slotted to be picked pretty much all along.

If I remember correctly Wade was pretty much a better, more level-headed Marcus Smart, as far as draft projections go. Everyone had him (rightly) pegged as the best guard/wing/scorer (in the iso-heavy early 00's) in the draft after James and 'Melo.

[cb8883]

In short I have a better chance of bedding Alexis Texas than this occurring.

[Celtics18]

The chances aren't really zero. DMC dropped, so did Wade and Drummond. But they're pretty much zero.

Did those guys drop?  I thought they were picked right around where they had been slotted to be picked pretty much all along.

If I remember correctly Wade was pretty much a better, more level-headed Marcus Smart, as far as draft projections go. Everyone had him (rightly) pegged as the best guard/wing/scorer (in the iso-heavy early 00's) in the draft after James and 'Melo.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/basketball/nba/2003/draft/news/2003/05/22/mock_draft/

I love the internet.  This one had him ninth.  I looked at two additional mocks from 2003 that had him going 7th.  It looks like James, Milicic, Anthony, and Bosh were more or less consensus top four.  Folks liked Kaman, Hinrich, Ford, and Maciej Lampe (who?), as well. 

I don't think Wade going fifth represented a drop.