chances of Embiid dropping to 5?

[mmmmm]

I believe LarBrd33 said there is a better chance that the Celtics pick 6th and not 5th is because mathematically they do.
5th is 23.7.%.
6th is 34.2 %.
They also have around a 33% chance of getting a top 3 pick.

That's one way to look at the odds.  Certainly the 6th pick is the highest probability slot.  So it has a greater likelihood of happening than any of the other 7 possible outcomes.

But another way to look at it is the probability of picking 'at least' as high as each possible slot.

1st overall:  10.3%
2nd or higher:  21.4%
3rd or higher:  33.4%
4th or higher:  33.4%  (can't pick 4th so this is really odds of top-3)
5th or higher:  57.1%
6th or higher:  91.3%
7th or higher:  99.7%
8th or higher:  100%

So, actually the odds are a little bit in favor of picking before the 6th  (57.1%).

Edit: clarified a bit.

[Tr1boy]

I believe LarBrd33 said there is a better chance that the Celtics pick 6th and not 5th is because mathematically they do.
5th is 23.7.%.
6th is 34.2 %.
They also have around a 33% chance of getting a top 3 pick.

That's one way to look at the odds.  Certainly the 6th pick is the highest probability slot.  So it has a greater likelihood of happening than any of the other 7 possible outcomes.

But another way to look at it is the probability of picking 'at least' as high as each possible slot.

1st overall:  10.3%
2nd or higher:  21.4%
3rd or higher:  33.4%
4th or higher:  33.4%  (can't pick 4th so this is really odds of top-3)
5th or higher:  57.1%
6th or higher:  91.3%
7th or higher:  99.7%
8th or higher:  100%

So, actually the odds are a little bit in favor of picking higher than 6th  (57.1%).

nice post. 

[Celtic Fan Forever]

http://nbatanking.com/


For those who have no life like me, and repeatedly run the simulation to get the C's in the top 3 

[get_banners]

unless his back is dangerously bad, i think there's no way he gets past 4.

[Quetzalcoatl]

I believe LarBrd33 said there is a better chance that the Celtics pick 6th and not 5th is because mathematically they do.
5th is 23.7.%.
6th is 34.2 %.
They also have around a 33% chance of getting a top 3 pick.

That's one way to look at the odds.  Certainly the 6th pick is the highest probability slot.  So it has a greater likelihood of happening than any of the other 7 possible outcomes.

But another way to look at it is the probability of picking 'at least' as high as each possible slot.

1st overall:  10.3%
2nd or higher:  21.4%
3rd or higher:  33.4%
4th or higher:  33.4%  (can't pick 4th so this is really odds of top-3)
5th or higher:  57.1%
6th or higher:  91.3%
7th or higher:  99.7%
8th or higher:  100%

So, actually the odds are a little bit in favor of picking higher than 6th  (57.1%).

No, it's 57.1% that we get 1-3 or 5th.  It's more likely that we pick before the 6th pick. If you want to be cynical, you could still say it's likely we won't get a top 3 pick.

In any case, what any of us think or what jinxes are made or the superstitions any of us have are irrelevant.  We'll just have to wait.

[mmmmm]

I believe LarBrd33 said there is a better chance that the Celtics pick 6th and not 5th is because mathematically they do.
5th is 23.7.%.
6th is 34.2 %.
They also have around a 33% chance of getting a top 3 pick.

That's one way to look at the odds.  Certainly the 6th pick is the highest probability slot.  So it has a greater likelihood of happening than any of the other 7 possible outcomes.

But another way to look at it is the probability of picking 'at least' as high as each possible slot.

1st overall:  10.3%
2nd or higher:  21.4%
3rd or higher:  33.4%
4th or higher:  33.4%  (can't pick 4th so this is really odds of top-3)
5th or higher:  57.1%
6th or higher:  91.3%
7th or higher:  99.7%
8th or higher:  100%

So, actually the odds are a little bit in favor of picking higher than 6th  (57.1%).

No, it's 57.1% that we get 1-3 or 5th.  It's more likely that we pick before the 6th pick. If you want to be cynical, you could still say it's likely we won't get a top 3 pick.

In any case, what any of us think or what jinxes are made or the superstitions any of us have are irrelevant.  We'll just have to wait.

Oh - You are right, I should have used the word "before", not "higher".  Semantics.  Fixed.

[celts55]

I believe LarBrd33 said there is a better chance that the Celtics pick 6th and not 5th is because mathematically they do.
5th is 23.7.%.
6th is 34.2 %.
They also have around a 33% chance of getting a top 3 pick.

That's one way to look at the odds.  Certainly the 6th pick is the highest probability slot.  So it has a greater likelihood of happening than any of the other 7 possible outcomes.

But another way to look at it is the probability of picking 'at least' as high as each possible slot.

1st overall:  10.3%
2nd or higher:  21.4%
3rd or higher:  33.4%
4th or higher:  33.4%  (can't pick 4th so this is really odds of top-3)
5th or higher:  57.1%
6th or higher:  91.3%
7th or higher:  99.7%
8th or higher:  100%

So, actually the odds are a little bit in favor of picking before the 6th  (57.1%).

Edit: clarified a bit.

Sorry, but I must not get the concept. But using that logic their best odd are 8th or higher.

I was just posting the odds as they have been posted.

[vjcsmoke]

It's about time the Celtics were blessed with some Lotto luck!!

Where is our makeup pick for losing Tim Duncan, Draft Gods??!!!

[pokeKingCurtis]

I believe LarBrd33 said there is a better chance that the Celtics pick 6th and not 5th is because mathematically they do.
5th is 23.7.%.
6th is 34.2 %.
They also have around a 33% chance of getting a top 3 pick.

That's one way to look at the odds.  Certainly the 6th pick is the highest probability slot.  So it has a greater likelihood of happening than any of the other 7 possible outcomes.

But another way to look at it is the probability of picking 'at least' as high as each possible slot.

1st overall:  10.3%
2nd or higher:  21.4%
3rd or higher:  33.4%
4th or higher:  33.4%  (can't pick 4th so this is really odds of top-3)
5th or higher:  57.1%
6th or higher:  91.3%
7th or higher:  99.7%
8th or higher:  100%

So, actually the odds are a little bit in favor of picking before the 6th  (57.1%).

Edit: clarified a bit.

Sorry, but I must not get the concept. But using that logic their best odd are 8th or higher.

I was just posting the odds as they have been posted.

Accumulating the odds, by the 5th pick we have a well above 50% chance of getting that number or better.

Conversely we'd have a 42.9% chance of drafting 6th, 7th or 8th, a significantly less than 50% chance.

So the odds are technically in favor of a top 5 rather than a 6-8th.

[86MaxwellSmart]

I hope you guys have seen this:
http://www.nba.com/celtics/news/sidebar/inside-numbers-draft-lottery-combos

Notice how All the C's combinations have either the #4/5/6 in them---?...and NO #1/2/3 in any of them---?

NBA really needs to Randomize these combinations---if it wants to look like a legit process.

we can Easily be screwed by this...just like 2007---when Wyc said All of our combinations had the #1 and #2 in them.

I think the so-called odds are thrown out the window....it's like buying a Lottery ticket--and choosing consecutive numbers...Plus, it would be very easy to add a little weight to Balls #4/5/6....the balls are blown upwards in the hopper BTW.

[Rondo9]

Do other teams ping pong ball begin with the number 4?

[86MaxwellSmart]

Perhaps---but I don't think so---I'd have to see the other teams combinations...the NBA assigns these Combinations in numeric order---which is idiotic---unless of course you'd like the option of controlling the outcome.

[Rondo9]

Here's another link about the possible combinations: http://www.nba.com/thunder/news/lottery_basics.html

It's old though, but each combination begins with the number 4.

[crownontherocks]

Joel Embiid's stress fracture in his back concerns teams picking in the upcoming NBA draft.

Adam zagoria

[LooseCannon]

It's old though, but each combination begins with the number 4.

It's not odd.  The combinations are assigned sequentially.