I've thought long and hard about this in the past, because I'm prone to fantasy. And I think ultimately 'we don't know the future' doesn't actually provide a viable counter argument to the money side of this. I'm not saying declaring now is the only defendable option, but it is the lesser choice money-wise, because the uncertainty of a pro career isn't a proper counter to it.
There is no proof that it is the lesser option on the money side. For instance you have brought up that Parker would go on a 4 year rookie contract then a 5 year contract then another couple four year contracts. Well if that happens when he is a year older he still gets all that same money. If he can't fulfill the last contract he can still not play or sit at the end of someone's bench and collect his yearly salary. Heck, Gilbert Arenas has been out of the league 3 years and he still is getting paid. Older players get paid and don't play all the time.
So if he only plays until he is 36 under the scenario he leaves now he receives a rookie contract a five year contract, and receives two more 4 year deals, then he isn't playing his last year and can collect that guaranteed money for a year. If he leaves school next year he gets a rookie deal, a 5 year deal and two 4 year deals and leaves the game at 36 he still gets the same money but instead isn't playing the last two years of his contract.
Without argument he's giving up a year of around 4 million.
Actually as I just pointed out there is an argument against that. Now that argument is that all other factors remain equal. But of course, who knows if that will happen but if things do not remain equal, then there's no way to tell either way how much he is losing or gaining by staying in school another year.
Without doubt he puts his extension from his rookie contract (and all future extensions) a year farther off. That uncertainty isn't dismissible by 'we don't know the future' because it's irrefutable.
Not sure I ever refuted that or that my statement that uncertainty caused that not to be true. So I am a little confused why you are bringing that up
It's possible staying in college might help him refine his game to make him a better player over the course of his career, but that possibly isn't really higher than the possibly that he could suffer injury.
Love to see where you are getting this statement from. Are there stats that show the amount of players that refine their game and get selected higher, what those percentages are and that compares that to the percentage incidence of players that get hurt in college to the point it effects their position where they are being selected? My guess is both percentages are extremely low.
All unknowns on the table, declaring this year is the only viable option if he's making choices based on dollar signs.
And again, I don't think that is a certainty. If I am advising the young man, I'm telling him to come out now because I think the likelihood is he could lose money by not doing so but given the unknowns in that equation, it's not a certainty, especially if all those unknowns come out to be that they all would have occurred regardless of whether he came out as a freshman, sophomore or upperclassman.