Parker to Stay in College?

[byennie]

I could make more money than I do, maybe twice as much, if that's all I cared about. It wouldn't be worth it, and I'd just be higher up in the same middle class. There's a 99% chance that I'm not ending up in poverty or the 1%. Parker may feel the same way. There's a very high likelihood that the guy ends up a millionaire x10, and after that, he might not care THAT much relative to his happiness. It would take a catastrophic injury in his next 40 games or so to make him anything less. Good on him.

[nickagneta]

I've thought long and hard about this in the past, because I'm prone to fantasy. And I think ultimately 'we don't know the future' doesn't actually provide a viable counter argument to the money side of this. I'm not saying declaring now is the only defendable option, but it is the lesser choice money-wise, because the uncertainty of a pro career isn't a proper counter to it.

There is no proof that it is the lesser option on the money side. For instance you have brought up that Parker would go on a 4 year rookie contract then a 5 year contract then another couple four year contracts.  Well if that happens when he is a year older he still gets all that same money. If he can't fulfill the last contract he can still not play or sit at the end of someone's bench and collect his yearly salary. Heck, Gilbert Arenas has been out of the league 3 years and he still is getting paid. Older players get paid and don't play all the time.

So if he only plays until he is 36 under the scenario he leaves now he receives a rookie contract a five year contract, and receives two more 4 year deals, then he isn't playing his last year and can collect that guaranteed money for a year. If he leaves school next year he gets a rookie deal, a 5 year deal and two 4 year deals and leaves the game at 36 he still gets the same money but instead isn't playing the last two years of his contract.

Without argument he's giving up a year of around 4 million.

Actually as I just pointed out there is an argument against that. Now that argument is that all other factors remain equal. But of course, who knows if that will happen but if things do not remain equal, then there's no way to tell either way how much he is losing or gaining by staying in school another year.

Without doubt he puts his extension from his rookie contract (and all future extensions) a year farther off. That uncertainty isn't dismissible by 'we don't know the future' because it's irrefutable.

Not sure I ever refuted that or that my statement that uncertainty caused that not to be true. So I am a little confused why you are bringing that up

It's possible staying in college might help him refine his game to make him a better player over the course of his career, but that possibly isn't really higher than the possibly that he could suffer injury.

Love to see where you are getting this statement from. Are there stats that show the amount of players that refine their game and get selected higher, what those percentages are and that compares that to the percentage incidence of players that get hurt in college to the point it effects their position where they are being selected? My guess is both percentages are extremely low.

All unknowns on the table, declaring this year is the only viable option if he's making choices based on dollar signs. 

And again, I don't think that is a certainty. If I am advising the young man, I'm telling him to come out now because I think the likelihood is he could lose money by not doing so but given the unknowns in that equation, it's not a certainty, especially if all those unknowns come out to be that they all would have occurred regardless of whether he came out as a freshman, sophomore or upperclassman.

[sofutomygaha]

I've taken the liberty of jotting down minutes from this thread:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

nickagneta: nothing's ever for certain in this crazy, mixed-up world we live in

almost everyone else: Jabari should play the odds

nickagneta: I agree with you, but with misleading expository depth

confusing instigators: but you guys, this man jumped out of a plane without a parachute and HE TURNED OUT FINE

[D.o.s.]

I've taken the liberty of jotting down minutes from this thread:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

nickagneta: nothing's ever for certain in this crazy, mixed-up world we live in

almost everyone else: Jabari should play the odds

nickagneta: I agree with you, but with misleading expository depth

confusing instigators: but you guys, this man jumped out of a plane without a parachute and HE TURNED OUT FINE

 
TP

[Fafnir]

Nick you're really arguing that delaying your professional career a year doesn't decrease your expected lifetime earnings? Uncertainty and risk exist but the reduced expectation of earnings is a very real thing. If a player is going to be a first round draft pick every year he's not getting paid to play basketball is a year's worth of lost earnings guaranteed.

The fact that we don't know the length and overall quality of his future career doesn't overwhelm the power of getting paid when you're 19/20 instead of 20/21 or 21/22, etc.

[Snakehead]

I've taken the liberty of jotting down minutes from this thread:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

nickagneta: nothing's ever for certain in this crazy, mixed-up world we live in

almost everyone else: Jabari should play the odds

nickagneta: I agree with you, but with misleading expository depth

confusing instigators: but you guys, this man jumped out of a plane without a parachute and HE TURNED OUT FINE

TP for that write up hahaha

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xhWUwOuyMFs

[nickagneta]

Poke fun at me all you want. Paul Pierce came out a junior, got selected 10th and yet still made $184 million in his career.

I wonder if Pierce is thinking, at his age, "wow, I should have come out as a freshman or sophomore because I could have made a couple million dollars more." Or if asked does Pierce say, "I am happy I stayed a couple extra years and coming out later wasn't detrimental to me and my overall money earning ability."

BTW, one of the players Parker is compared to an awful lot is Paul Pierce. If Parker reaches his full potential, by the end of his career, whether he came out now or later, it is probably not going to make a huge difference in what he has earned, if anything.

[Moranis]

Poke fun at me all you want. Paul Pierce came out a junior, got selected 10th and yet still made $184 million in his career.

I wonder if Pierce is thinking, at his age, "wow, I should have come out as a freshman or sophomore because I could have made a couple million dollars more." Or if asked does Pierce say, "I am happy I stayed a couple extra years and coming out later wasn't detrimental to me and my overall money earning ability."

BTW, one of the players Parker is compared to an awful lot is Paul Pierce. If Parker reaches his full potential, by the end of his career, whether he came out now or later, it is probably not going to make a huge difference in what he has earned, if anything.

but Paul Pierce was never projected as a likely top 3 pick until his junior year (when he fell to 10th).  That isn't the case for Jabari Parker.

Look at Sullinger, projected as a top 5 pick in the draft comes back and then has back concerns which dropped him all the way to 21 (or maybe Perry Jones, likely top 10 pick, comes back, falls to the back end of the first round, and hasn't progressed at all and may not even get a second contract).  If Sullinger's back issues cut his career short, he will lose out on millions of dollars (in his first contract alone) nonetheless the potential of future contracts.

And BTW, Garnett (315 million) and Bryant (280 million) are by far the largest career earners of the active players.  You know two guys that never even went to college.

[nickagneta]

And BTW, Garnett (315 million) and Bryant (280 million) are by far the largest career earners of the active players.  You know two guys that never even went to college.

And yet if those two guys had gone to college and earned 10% less than they have, would it make a difference to them?

Not everyone measures happiness and success in dollars and cents.

[Donoghus]

If you're already a top 3-4 pick,  I just don't see why taking the risk of another year in college is worth it.  To me, the risk outweighs the gain.

If you're a borderline first rounder, I can see the idea of going back to school to improve your draft prospects (especially considering the contract structure) but if you're already projected to go at the top of the draft, I just don't see the benefit. 

As others mentioned, you get paid a year younger and you nab that second contract a year earlier.  To me, there's great economic benefit there.   Why risk it? This isn't like being an accountant or lawyer or restaurant or whatever.....this skill has a much smaller window to capitalize on.  Maybe 15 years.  More likely than not, you're done in your late 30s.  That's it.

[vjcsmoke]

Dunno, I could do a few things with 31.5m or 28m.  What about you?  LOL.

There's no cut and dry 'right answer'.  But fact is the sooner you become a pro the sooner you make real money, in this case top 3 money.  I don't see Parker getting taken out of the top 3 this year.  Staying in another year doesn't do much to improve his draft stock.  And there's another monster coming out in next year's draft.

And BTW, Garnett (315 million) and Bryant (280 million) are by far the largest career earners of the active players.  You know two guys that never even went to college.

And yet if those two guys had gone to college and earned 10% less than they have, would it make a difference to them?

Not everyone measures happiness and success in dollars and cents.

[D.o.s.]

And BTW, Garnett (315 million) and Bryant (280 million) are by far the largest career earners of the active players.  You know two guys that never even went to college.

And yet if those two guys had gone to college and earned 10% less than they have, would it make a difference to them?

Not everyone measures happiness and success in dollars and cents.

But no one's happy when they're at Duke. That's a scientific fact.





Go tar heels.

[sofutomygaha]

Dunno, I could do a few thinks with 31.5m or 28m.  What about you?  LOL.

There's no cut and dry 'right answer'.  But fact is the sooner you become a pro the sooner you make real money, in this case top 3 money.  I don't see Parker getting taken out of the top 3 this year.  Staying in another year doesn't do much to improve his draft stock.  And there's another monster coming out in next year's draft.

And BTW, Garnett (315 million) and Bryant (280 million) are by far the largest career earners of the active players.  You know two guys that never even went to college.

And yet if those two guys had gone to college and earned 10% less than they have, would it make a difference to them?

Not everyone measures happiness and success in dollars and cents.

Garnett and Bryant have both stated on multiple occasions that they would have benefitted from two years of college ball.

[nickagneta]

And BTW, Garnett (315 million) and Bryant (280 million) are by far the largest career earners of the active players.  You know two guys that never even went to college.

And yet if those two guys had gone to college and earned 10% less than they have, would it make a difference to them?

Not everyone measures happiness and success in dollars and cents.

But no one's happy when they're at Duke. That's a scientific fact.





Go tar heels.

I was wondering about the comments earlier that called Duke, and I am paraphrasing here, a bad school. LOL. Now I get it.

[bdm860]

Poke fun at me all you want. Paul Pierce came out a junior, got selected 10th and yet still made $184 million in his career.

I wonder if Pierce is thinking, at his age, "wow, I should have come out as a freshman or sophomore because I could have made a couple million dollars more." Or if asked does Pierce say, "I am happy I stayed a couple extra years and coming out later wasn't detrimental to me and my overall money earning ability."

BTW, one of the players Parker is compared to an awful lot is Paul Pierce. If Parker reaches his full potential, by the end of his career, whether he came out now or later, it is probably not going to make a huge difference in what he has earned, if anything.

I don't recall Pierce being projected as a top 10 pick after his Sophomore year, so I don't know if he's the greatest example, but I do remember a lot of talk of Joakim Noah going #1 in 2006.

If he went #1 in 2006 he'd be at $81m in 2015, instead he's going to be at just $56m. When his career is all said and done though, don't know if the difference will be that great.  If he could go back in time, I bet Noah wouldn't change a thing.

I'm with you Nick.  Not the worst thing in the world to go back to school another year.

He could get more money as a #1 or #2 pick next year (as he might go #2 or #3 this year).

Could add additional years on the back end of his career (with less wear on his body from a 35+ game college season compared to an 82+ game NBA season).

This could actually raise his public profile and increase his endorsement money.  (Make him look like a wholesome Grant Hill who doesn't just care about money).

What if he's drafted by Utah or Milwaukee? (While there are other cities as bad, are there any that are worse for your career?).  Maybe Atlanta, New York, LA, Boston, or Dallas are picking #1 or #2 next year.  Of course maybe being a Mormon, Utah is an ideal destination to him...

Not saying these things will happen, but losing out on 3.5m to 4.5m (plus endorsements) next year isn't the only thing that happens.  A huge chain of events gets set into motion, and I don't think it's very likely that he ends up coming out that much worse because of it.