Author Topic: How much do you weigh NCAA tournament performance?  (Read 8972 times)

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Re: How much do you weigh NCAA tournament performance?
« Reply #30 on: March 22, 2014, 12:02:42 AM »

Offline Tr1boy

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you can't shoot 41-42 per for the year and be a top 5-7 pick regardless of what else you can do.

He is going to shoot like less than 40 percent in the nba . He is looking like he will be a Terrence Williams version 2. And look at where Twill is right now

This is just a hunch, but there are probably quite a few top picks who have had field goal percentages like that.

Honestly, the NBA game is more open and free flowing.  A guy like Smart might actually have an easier time scoring.

To me what stands out about him is that he has the size to defend both guard positions, he is a playmaker, he forces turnovers, he rebounds really well for his size, and he generates a lot of free throw attempts.  Those are qualities that translate well to the next level.

There really hasn't been a guy who shot at 40-42 percent in college that was drafted in the top 10 before.  He does lots of other things to compensate for his low shooting per, but then a guy like that is not really a starter in the nba.  Smart has poor shot selection, turnover prone, and is the classic definition of a streaky shooter. 

It might better for him to comeback for a third year and refine his game or else take a risk to be buried in the bench in the nba.

He has to start with understanding his limitations and not going outside of this boundry. For example he is a pretty bad three pt shooter. A few games here and there he will go 5-7, but most of the times he is shooting 1-4, 1-5.  Take a few and if they don't fall,  don't shoot it.  Maybe there are spots on the floor he gets them in at a higher percentage. Than mainly shoot it from there.

He is strong driving to the basket and has a decent mid range game. So stick to tha then. Make an effort to consistently be efficient.

If he declares the team that drafts him will have to pray he is coachable

Re: How much do you weigh NCAA tournament performance?
« Reply #31 on: March 22, 2014, 06:04:31 AM »

Offline LooseCannon

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There really hasn't been a guy who shot at 40-42 percent in college that was drafted in the top 10 before.

It's like people don't even bother to check the numbers before throwing out statistical generalizations like this.

In last year's draft:
8th - Kentavious Caldwell-Pope 41.5% shooter in two seasons at Georgia

Just barely missing
11th - Michael Carter Williams - 39.8% shooter in two seasons at Syracuse.

Some other names from other years:
7th - Randy Foye 39.9% in four seasons at Villanova
5th - Raymond Felton 42.3% in three seasons at UNC
8th - TJ Ford 40.6% in two seasons at Texas
6th - Dajuan Wagner 41.0% in one season at Memphis
10th - Keyon Dooling 41.1% in two seasons at Missouri
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Re: How much do you weigh NCAA tournament performance?
« Reply #32 on: March 22, 2014, 10:54:46 AM »

Offline Tr1boy

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There really hasn't been a guy who shot at 40-42 percent in college that was drafted in the top 10 before.

It's like people don't even bother to check the numbers before throwing out statistical generalizations like this.

In last year's draft:
8th - Kentavious Caldwell-Pope 41.5% shooter in two seasons at Georgia

Just barely missing
11th - Michael Carter Williams - 39.8% shooter in two seasons at Syracuse.

Some other names from other years:
7th - Randy Foye 39.9% in four seasons at Villanova
5th - Raymond Felton 42.3% in three seasons at UNC
8th - TJ Ford 40.6% in two seasons at Texas
6th - Dajuan Wagner 41.0% in one season at Memphis
10th - Keyon Dooling 41.1% in two seasons at Missouri

And how have 95 percent of those guys turned out in the nba? 

 I never said never. Just its not the norm and there is a good reason why
« Last Edit: March 22, 2014, 11:04:07 AM by triboy16f »

Re: How much do you weigh NCAA tournament performance?
« Reply #33 on: March 22, 2014, 12:40:24 PM »

Offline nickagneta

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While I don't think it is ever a good idea to judge any player solely on one game, players have definitely shot up and down the draft from pre-draft predictions after great or poor NCAA Tourneys. Other times it doesn't. Michael Carter Williams had an awesome tourney last year but really didn't show any bump up the draft because of it. Roy Hibbert, on the other hand, had a poor last tourney and it sent him spiraling a little bit. Paul Pierce stunk it up his last tourney game and he feel down to tenth.

So tourney performance has effected players positioning in the draft as compared to where pre-draft prognostications had them but the question is should they? I don't believe they should unless there is some underlying theme that the player either over performs or under performs whenever the pressure of playoff basketball is added.

I doubt it will effect Parker or Smart.