How much do you weigh NCAA tournament performance?

[fairweatherfan]

I think that a strong tournament showing helps much more than a weak tournament showing hurts -- you're not going to lose inches off your vertical just because you didn't make the Elite Eight.

A strong tournament showing is still a small sample size.  Does it sometimes lead to players being overrated on draft day?

my gut feeling is that it certainly has, but I'd have to go back and look after I finish working to see if anyone actually measures up -- I don't cover the tournament, so no one's coming to mind right away.

At least, it feels more likely that players would be overrated after a positive showing than the converse.  Right? I'm not crazy, am I?

Definitely. 

Jared Jeffries is one guy, right away, that comes to mind.  '02 tournament.

EDIT:  Faried in '11 also comes to mind.

Don't forget Paddy O'Bryant.  He made basically all his NBA money on the back of 2 or 3 good tourney games for Bradley.

[Donoghus]

I think that a strong tournament showing helps much more than a weak tournament showing hurts -- you're not going to lose inches off your vertical just because you didn't make the Elite Eight.

A strong tournament showing is still a small sample size.  Does it sometimes lead to players being overrated on draft day?

my gut feeling is that it certainly has, but I'd have to go back and look after I finish working to see if anyone actually measures up -- I don't cover the tournament, so no one's coming to mind right away.

At least, it feels more likely that players would be overrated after a positive showing than the converse.  Right? I'm not crazy, am I?

Definitely. 

Jared Jeffries is one guy, right away, that comes to mind.  '02 tournament.

EDIT:  Faried in '11 also comes to mind.

Don't forget Paddy O'Bryant.  He made basically all his NBA money on the back of 2 or 3 good tourney games for Bradley.

That's a good one.  I can't believe I forgot Gordon Hayward. 

Curry was already going high but that tourney run he made with Davidson helped curb some trepidation.

Some other ones I found (with assist of Google)

-Tyrus Thomas  (most definitely)
-Byrant Reeves (manhandled Camby in '95) 
-Dwayne Wade ( I think people forget this one in retrospect)

[Tr1boy]

It matters. Its ridiculous to say otherwise. Sure there are fluky performances. Or performances by guys who did little in the regular season. But outside of these exceptions how far you help your team and how well you indvidual perform does matter.

It shows your abilility to meet and exceed stressful situations. Ability to focus,  utilize your talents,  leadership skills etc.

Parker played poorly , looked flustered ,  and in the end didnt look like a top 3 talent. I expected more but clearly iam not surprised. He is still young and needs to work on alot of little things(especially body, defense) to take his game to another level. He has to play with more fire.

 If he declares , he is now no lock to go in the top 3. Teams that pick in the top 3 are desperate for guys who can help/carry them to wins.

Disagree strongly. He sucked in the tourney but he has the best body of work over the season of any of the elite prospects. He's a 100% mortal lock to go in the top 3 if there are no medical issues.

Of any prospect? That is arguable. Wiggins had a fine season. So did embiid and gordon would of likely won or been top three if there was a defensive player of the year award

If wiggins takes his team to the sweet sixteen, you would rather take parker over him? If gordon helps arizona to the final four or final two, you would not consider choosing him over parker?

If gordon can do this, the guy is just a flat out winner. From world U19 to the ncaa.

[KGs Knee]

If gordon helps arizona to the final four or final two, you would not consider choosing him over parker?

Absolutely not.

Gordon doesn't have anywhere near the potential and ability Parker does.

[Tr1boy]

If gordon helps arizona to the final four or final two, you would not consider choosing him over parker?

Absolutely not.

Gordon doesn't have anywhere near the potential and ability Parker does.

I guess you mean offensively.  Bc defensively Parker doesn't have anywhere near the potential and ability Gordon does. 

[pearljammer10]

I think a players stock and draft place can only go up, not really drop that much.

Case in point, Parker won't drop because of his one and done...But after watching Monterzl Harrell play defense he would be on my target list.

[Tr1boy]

I think a players stock and draft place can only go up, not really drop that much.

Case in point, Parker won't drop because of his one and done...But after watching Monterzl Harrell play defense he would be on my target list.

With your theory you do drop. Bc other guys who do better and go futher are climbing.

[D.o.s.]

If gordon helps arizona to the final four or final two, you would not consider choosing him over parker?

Absolutely not.

Gordon doesn't have anywhere near the potential and ability Parker does.

I guess you mean offensively.  Bc defensively Parker doesn't have anywhere near the potential and ability Gordon does.

No I think he means as a basketball player.

[Celtics18]

I bet you that Bryce kid from PC gets drafted somewhere in the second round, based largely on this one game--win or lose.

[pearljammer10]

I think a players stock and draft place can only go up, not really drop that much.

Case in point, Parker won't drop because of his one and done...But after watching Monterzl Harrell play defense he would be on my target list.

With your theory you do drop. Bc other guys who do better and go futher are climbing.

True. I was mainly thinking of the upper caliber top 5 to 10 type guys.

[PhoSita]

Depends on the sample.

If a player's team goes deep and that's 4-5 extra games of high level competition on a big stage to judge, then that's something to take into account.

Just one game, though?  Can't put much weight on that.

[indeedproceed]

I think a players stock and draft place can only go up, not really drop that much.

Case in point, Parker won't drop because of his one and done...But after watching Monterzl Harrell play defense he would be on my target list.

With your theory you do drop. Bc other guys who do better and go futher are climbing.

True. I was mainly thinking of the upper caliber top 5 to 10 type guys.

Right. I think a top tier guy (top 5) could drop 1 or 2 spots, depending on their perceived ceiling and age.

A 1 and done guy won't drop more than a spot or two, but if an upperclassman has experience and consistent failure in the tourney, he could almost drop out of the top-10. Marcus Smart is a guy that could drop a bit, despite a strong individual showing. He lost in the first round last year , same this year. But then, the tourney is just the icing on his crap-cake there. His year has been up and down already , almost certainly dropping him out of the top-5 and the tourney thing ..who knows?

Parker, he won't drop much , if at all.

[PhoSita]

I think a players stock and draft place can only go up, not really drop that much.

Case in point, Parker won't drop because of his one and done...But after watching Monterzl Harrell play defense he would be on my target list.

With your theory you do drop. Bc other guys who do better and go futher are climbing.

True. I was mainly thinking of the upper caliber top 5 to 10 type guys.

Right. I think a top tier guy (top 5) could drop 1 or 2 spots, depending on their perceived ceiling and age.

A 1 and done guy won't drop more than a spot or two, but if an upperclassman has experience and consistent failure in the tourney, he could almost drop out of the top-10. Marcus Smart is a guy that could drop a bit, despite a strong individual showing. He lost in the first round last year , same this year. But then, the tourney is just the icing on his crap-cake there. His year has been up and down already , almost certainly dropping him out of the top-5 and the tourney thing ..who knows?

Parker, he won't drop much , if at all.

I don't see how you could drop Smart at all based on a single game . . . especially when in that single game he took 19 free throws, got 6 steals, and grabbed 13 rebounds.  I'm not sure what sort of scorer he'll be at the next level, but he's gonna fill up the whole box score.

[Tr1boy]

I think a players stock and draft place can only go up, not really drop that much.

Case in point, Parker won't drop because of his one and done...But after watching Monterzl Harrell play defense he would be on my target list.

With your theory you do drop. Bc other guys who do better and go futher are climbing.

True. I was mainly thinking of the upper caliber top 5 to 10 type guys.

Right. I think a top tier guy (top 5) could drop 1 or 2 spots, depending on their perceived ceiling and age.

A 1 and done guy won't drop more than a spot or two, but if an upperclassman has experience and consistent failure in the tourney, he could almost drop out of the top-10. Marcus Smart is a guy that could drop a bit, despite a strong individual showing. He lost in the first round last year , same this year. But then, the tourney is just the icing on his crap-cake there. His year has been up and down already , almost certainly dropping him out of the top-5 and the tourney thing ..who knows?

Parker, he won't drop much , if at all.

I don't see how you could drop Smart at all based on a single game . . . especially when in that single game he took 19 free throws, got 6 steals, and grabbed 13 rebounds.  I'm not sure what sort of scorer he'll be at the next level, but he's gonna fill up the whole box score.

you can't shoot 41-42 per for the year and be a top 5-7 pick regardless of what else you can do.

He is going to shoot like less than 40 percent in the nba . He is looking like he will be a Terrence Williams version 2. And look at where Twill is right now

[PhoSita]

you can't shoot 41-42 per for the year and be a top 5-7 pick regardless of what else you can do.

He is going to shoot like less than 40 percent in the nba . He is looking like he will be a Terrence Williams version 2. And look at where Twill is right now

This is just a hunch, but there are probably quite a few top picks who have had field goal percentages like that.

Honestly, the NBA game is more open and free flowing.  A guy like Smart might actually have an easier time scoring.

To me what stands out about him is that he has the size to defend both guard positions, he is a playmaker, he forces turnovers, he rebounds really well for his size, and he generates a lot of free throw attempts.  Those are qualities that translate well to the next level.