Simmons on the Eastern Conference / Celtics

[PhoSita]

The Sports Guy put out a column recently about the sad state of the Eastern Conference.

The money quote for the column, in my view, was the following:

That's what happens when 15 flawed teams spend 60 percent of the time playing each other. SOMEBODY HAS TO WIN. Those artificially inflated win totals end up obscuring real problems.

Artificially inflated win totals obscuring real problems. That's a very succinct summation of what bothers me about the Celtics' 10-12 record.


Simmons wasn't sure what will happen with the Celtics over the rest of the season:

Prognosis: As soon as the Knicks and/or Nets get healthy and start making a run in the Shatlantic, I could see the Celtics shelving Rondo for the season, making a self-sabotage trade and careering toward the lottery. I could also see Stevens single-handedly foiling those plans by going Norm Dale circa 1952 on us, whether Rondo is part of it or not. In other words, I don't know. I'm glad I'm here.

As Simmons notes, the Good News:

Stevens is the real deal.  He's already proven to be a great choice for head coach, getting a lot more out of a flawed, mismatched group of players than many -- certainly including myself -- expected him to.

The Bad News:

The way things are going, it doesn't look like the Celtics are going to be in the running for a top 5 pick.  They may not be bad enough to get even a top 10 pick.  They could even end up outside of the lottery.  That would be fine, except for the "artificially inflated win total" problem combined with the prospect of winning a historically crappy division. 

The Celtics have been surprisingly competent so far this season.  The players appear to have bought in under Stevens.  That's a really pleasing development, regardless of the context.  But this team still has real problems.  There's still a lack of high end talent here, and while the wins-by-committee thing is kind of fascinating to watch, it's harder to build up from there, because most of the key cogs are established veterans who already cost a lot of money for what they do.  A high draft pick would have been a great way to add an injection of talent and upside to this group without impacting the cap situation at all.

Unless the Nets continue to be this horrible for the next 5 years (some people think that's plausible; I don't) and provide the Celtics with some top lottery picks, the path to transforming this team from a plucky underdog story into a true contender -- or at least a dark horse -- is unclear.  Danny has his work cut out for him.

That, by the way, is what made the idea that the Celtics could bottom out this year and get a top pick in a loaded draft so appealing -- one year of hardship to get a transcendent player that the team could build around for the next decade plus.  It's a simple, relatively easy solution. 

Of course, as many have pointed out, there was always a chance that even with a top pick the Celtics might not have ended up with a truly great player, or even a particularly good one.  The draft is far from a sure thing.  But building from the middle, with second-tier players, is even less certain to result in success, unless your goal is simply to win 45-50 games and make it to the second round.

[BleedGreen1989]

I like Simmons a good deal and I think he's just like the rest of us; he has no idea what direction this season will head.

I'd love a top-5 pick (I think top-3 is a pipe dream), I have just yet to see a way we get there without selling our players (Rondo and Green) at some discount price just to get worse. Which I just simply feel is poor management and not Danny's style.

[PhoSita]

I like Simmons a good deal and I think he's just like the rest of us; he has no idea what direction this season will head.

I'd love a top-5 pick (I think top-3 is a pipe dream), I have just yet to see a way we get there without selling our players (Rondo and Green) at some discount price just to get worse. Which I just simply feel is poor management and not Danny's style.

Yeah, I think it's pretty clear from Danny's history as a GM that even when it might make sense to do so, he will not simply dump players for nothing, especially guys who can still help the team win in the present.  Rondo and Green could very well be traded at some point in the next year or so, but the return value will have to be significant (especially for Rondo).

[billysan]

Winning 40-45-50 games mostly versus sub par Eastern Conference teams is definitely going to create an illusion of quality that will be heartbreaking when/if we get crushed by a more legit playoff team.

The thing is now, if this is true, then by believing in ourselves and playing hard, we beat the Nuggets and the Heat even when we werent supposed to win.

I guess quality of opposition is still relevant and we should temper our expectations. Still I will enjoy our modest success none the less.

[PhoSita]

Winning 40-45-50 games mostly versus sub par Eastern Conference teams is definitely going to create an illusion of quality that will be heartbreaking when/if we get crushed by a more legit playoff team.

The thing is now, if this is true, then by believing in ourselves and playing hard, we beat the Nuggets and the Heat even when we werent supposed to win.

I guess quality of opposition is still relevant and we should temper our expectations. Still I will enjoy our modest success none the less.

Yes, it's worth noting -- forgetting the context and concerns about the future, this team is playing solid basketball and giving us entertaining games on a regular basis.  That's a nice surprise given the mess we seemed to be in for after the pre-season and the first 4-5 games of the season.

It still could fall apart.  Some of the teams below the Celtics could get key guys back and start to put it together again.  The Celtics could have some bad injury luck.  Rondo might not come back for a while.  Guys like Crawford, Bradley, and Bass, playing the best basketball of their careers, could regress a bit.  Some regression is inevitable, especially once the Celtics start playing more Western Conference contenders. 

Nevertheless, I think with Stevens as head coach the team isn't going to just fall back into bad habits and selfish play or anything like that.

[billysan]

I like Simmons a good deal and I think he's just like the rest of us; he has no idea what direction this season will head.

I'd love a top-5 pick (I think top-3 is a pipe dream), I have just yet to see a way we get there without selling our players (Rondo and Green) at some discount price just to get worse. Which I just simply feel is poor management and not Danny's style.

Yeah, I think it's pretty clear from Danny's history as a GM that even when it might make sense to do so, he will not simply dump players for nothing, especially guys who can still help the team win in the present.  Rondo and Green could very well be traded at some point in the next year or so, but the return value will have to be significant (especially for Rondo).

It would have to be a player or two.

I dont see more draft picks or cap space being valuable enough return.

[PhoSita]

I like Simmons a good deal and I think he's just like the rest of us; he has no idea what direction this season will head.

I'd love a top-5 pick (I think top-3 is a pipe dream), I have just yet to see a way we get there without selling our players (Rondo and Green) at some discount price just to get worse. Which I just simply feel is poor management and not Danny's style.

Yeah, I think it's pretty clear from Danny's history as a GM that even when it might make sense to do so, he will not simply dump players for nothing, especially guys who can still help the team win in the present.  Rondo and Green could very well be traded at some point in the next year or so, but the return value will have to be significant (especially for Rondo).

It would have to be a player or two.

I dont see more draft picks or cap space being valuable enough return.

I think a cheaper impact player or a quality 1st and an expiring would be enough for Danny to consider trading Green.

For Rondo, I've maintained that I think any trade package for him will have to include at least one pick, at least one nice (but not necessarily great) prospect, and an opportunity to unload significant future salary.

[BballTim]

For Rondo, I've maintained that I think any trade package for him will have to include at least one pick, at least one nice (but not necessarily great) prospect, and an opportunity to unload significant future salary.

  I don't think Danny wants to trade star players for nice pieces that won't get you anywhere, he wants to trade nice pieces for star players. People saw Danny trade KG and PP and decided that he was tanking when it's just as likely that he was getting what he could for players who were no longer stars.

 

[PhoSita]

For Rondo, I've maintained that I think any trade package for him will have to include at least one pick, at least one nice (but not necessarily great) prospect, and an opportunity to unload significant future salary.

  I don't think Danny wants to trade star players for nice pieces that won't get you anywhere, he wants to trade nice pieces for star players. People saw Danny trade KG and PP and decided that he was tanking when it's just as likely that he was getting what he could for players who were no longer stars.

 

If the only adequate price for Rondo is an established star player, then he's never going to be traded.

You may be right, but I'm not so sure that Danny would necessarily reject a package that checks off a lot of boxes but doesn't include an established star.  I do think there would need to be a player coming back who has at least a chance of becoming All-Star caliber.

[BballTim]

For Rondo, I've maintained that I think any trade package for him will have to include at least one pick, at least one nice (but not necessarily great) prospect, and an opportunity to unload significant future salary.

  I don't think Danny wants to trade star players for nice pieces that won't get you anywhere, he wants to trade nice pieces for star players. People saw Danny trade KG and PP and decided that he was tanking when it's just as likely that he was getting what he could for players who were no longer stars.

 

If the only adequate price for Rondo is an established star player, then he's never going to be traded.

You may be right, but I'm not so sure that Danny would necessarily reject a package that checks off a lot of boxes but doesn't include an established star.  I do think there would need to be a player coming back who has at least a chance of becoming All-Star caliber.

  All you'd be doing is spinning your wheels, trading a star player for some pieces that you'd hope to use in a package to bring in a star player. It puts you farther away from being a top team, not closer to it.

[BleedGreen1989]

For Rondo, I've maintained that I think any trade package for him will have to include at least one pick, at least one nice (but not necessarily great) prospect, and an opportunity to unload significant future salary.

  I don't think Danny wants to trade star players for nice pieces that won't get you anywhere, he wants to trade nice pieces for star players. People saw Danny trade KG and PP and decided that he was tanking when it's just as likely that he was getting what he could for players who were no longer stars.

 

If the only adequate price for Rondo is an established star player, then he's never going to be traded.

You may be right, but I'm not so sure that Danny would necessarily reject a package that checks off a lot of boxes but doesn't include an established star.  I do think there would need to be a player coming back who has at least a chance of becoming All-Star caliber.

  All you'd be doing is spinning your wheels, trading a star player for some pieces that you'd hope to use in a package to bring in a star player. It puts you farther away from being a top team, not closer to it.

I agree with Tim.

If Rondo is moved, one of the players coming back Ainge has to at least believe he can be an all-star one day. Or a draft pick where Ainge believes he can grab said player.

Otherwise, you are doing what Tim said. Spinning your wheels.

[Mr Green]

For Rondo, I've maintained that I think any trade package for him will have to include at least one pick, at least one nice (but not necessarily great) prospect, and an opportunity to unload significant future salary.

  I don't think Danny wants to trade star players for nice pieces that won't get you anywhere, he wants to trade nice pieces for star players. People saw Danny trade KG and PP and decided that he was tanking when it's just as likely that he was getting what he could for players who were no longer stars.

 

If the only adequate price for Rondo is an established star player, then he's never going to be traded.

You may be right, but I'm not so sure that Danny would necessarily reject a package that checks off a lot of boxes but doesn't include an established star.  I do think there would need to be a player coming back who has at least a chance of becoming All-Star caliber.

As far as I'm aware, Danny has only attempted to trade Rondo once. It was during 2011 for Chris Paul. It's a pretty good indication that Danny won't trade Rondo for a handful of magic beans.

[Celtics18]

For Rondo, I've maintained that I think any trade package for him will have to include at least one pick, at least one nice (but not necessarily great) prospect, and an opportunity to unload significant future salary.

  I don't think Danny wants to trade star players for nice pieces that won't get you anywhere, he wants to trade nice pieces for star players. People saw Danny trade KG and PP and decided that he was tanking when it's just as likely that he was getting what he could for players who were no longer stars.

 

If the only adequate price for Rondo is an established star player, then he's never going to be traded.

You may be right, but I'm not so sure that Danny would necessarily reject a package that checks off a lot of boxes but doesn't include an established star.  I do think there would need to be a player coming back who has at least a chance of becoming All-Star caliber.

Then, he's probably never going to get traded.

[Celtics17]

I'll have to agree with BballTim on this one. I dont see Ainge trading Rondo for anything less then another star player or at least someone who looks to be on that trajectory. Anything less does not make the team better. You can argue that a combination of salary reductions and less then star players and picks might do it but if you'll notice it hasn't so far.

[fairweatherfan]

For Rondo, I've maintained that I think any trade package for him will have to include at least one pick, at least one nice (but not necessarily great) prospect, and an opportunity to unload significant future salary.

  I don't think Danny wants to trade star players for nice pieces that won't get you anywhere, he wants to trade nice pieces for star players. People saw Danny trade KG and PP and decided that he was tanking when it's just as likely that he was getting what he could for players who were no longer stars.

 

If the only adequate price for Rondo is an established star player, then he's never going to be traded.

You may be right, but I'm not so sure that Danny would necessarily reject a package that checks off a lot of boxes but doesn't include an established star.  I do think there would need to be a player coming back who has at least a chance of becoming All-Star caliber.

  All you'd be doing is spinning your wheels, trading a star player for some pieces that you'd hope to use in a package to bring in a star player. It puts you farther away from being a top team, not closer to it.

Doubly so when we've already got a bunch of those kinds of assets.  It's not like a 10th 1st rounder or another expiring contract is going to really add much to what we can offer other teams.