Simmons on the Eastern Conference / Celtics

[saltlover]

Unless the Nets continue to be this horrible for the next 5 years (some people think that's plausible; I don't) and provide the Celtics with some top lottery picks, the path to transforming this team from a plucky underdog story into a true contender -- or at least a dark horse -- is unclear.  Danny has his work cut out for him.

That, by the way, is what made the idea that the Celtics could bottom out this year and get a top pick in a loaded draft so appealing -- one year of hardship to get a transcendent player that the team could build around for the next decade plus.  It's a simple, relatively easy solution. 

Of course, as many have pointed out, there was always a chance that even with a top pick the Celtics might not have ended up with a truly great player, or even a particularly good one.  The draft is far from a sure thing.  But building from the middle, with second-tier players, is even less certain to result in success, unless your goal is simply to win 45-50 games and make it to the second round.

I don't see why you don't think the Nets will stink for years into the future.  Prior to their stinking this year, it already looked like they would have trouble in 2015-2016, because they'd be capped out with four players on their roster, plus a 2015 draft pick that's probably in the 20's.  Their younger core of Williams, Johnson, and Lopez is getting older, with probably only Lopez not starting his decline.  Then the next year they've got cap room, but what young star is going to rush to play with a 32-year old Deron Williams?  They have no more draft picks to trade to acquire players with in trades until 2019 or 2020.  They can sign someone for the taxpayer MLE next year, which won't get you much if you missed the playoffs the year before.  They can re-up Blatche and AK-47 when their contracts expire, but that's not going to save them.  The Nets are going nowhere in a hurry.  Their billionaire owner is still bound by salary cap rules, and he can't buy his way out of this mess.

Also, say the Celtics are the fourth-best team in the East this year after Rondo returns.  That's not the worst place to be.  Their team is mostly younger.  They do have two picks in this draft to add to depth, and if one of two turns into a decent player, that certainly helps.  And most of the teams who finish below them are in even more trouble.  Firstly, they're worse than the C's this year.  Secondly, with so many teams at the bottom, most of them won't get that superstar talent they need anyway.  It's unlikely many teams will leapfrog the Celtics next year, if any.  Finally, there's a non-zero chance that LeBron leaves Miami this year, breaking up the Heat juggernaut.  With the East full of mediocrity below the Celtics, the loss of Miami as a powerhouse could leave the C's #2 in the conference next year behind Indiana, assuming a little more growth in year 2 of Stevens leadership and the continuing natural maturation of players like Sullinger, Bradley, and Olynyk.

Is the above a guarantee?  Obviously not.  But it's certainly possible the Celtics can continue to rise to an even more competitive position within the conference without a lottery pick.  Aside from Indiana and Miami, there's no team in this conference who's position I'd rather be in than the Celtics (although the Hawks are sitting pretty if Brooklyn never turns it around this year).

[PhoSita]

For Rondo, I've maintained that I think any trade package for him will have to include at least one pick, at least one nice (but not necessarily great) prospect, and an opportunity to unload significant future salary.

  I don't think Danny wants to trade star players for nice pieces that won't get you anywhere, he wants to trade nice pieces for star players. People saw Danny trade KG and PP and decided that he was tanking when it's just as likely that he was getting what he could for players who were no longer stars.

 

If the only adequate price for Rondo is an established star player, then he's never going to be traded.

You may be right, but I'm not so sure that Danny would necessarily reject a package that checks off a lot of boxes but doesn't include an established star.  I do think there would need to be a player coming back who has at least a chance of becoming All-Star caliber.

  All you'd be doing is spinning your wheels, trading a star player for some pieces that you'd hope to use in a package to bring in a star player. It puts you farther away from being a top team, not closer to it.

We've covered this ground before in other topics; it depends whether or not you think the team needs to take some steps back before it can take a few more steps forward. 

If you think this team with Rondo is one second tier player (i.e. the type of player likely to be available in trades or free agency) away from being an elite team, or close to it, then you're right.

[PhoSita]

For Rondo, I've maintained that I think any trade package for him will have to include at least one pick, at least one nice (but not necessarily great) prospect, and an opportunity to unload significant future salary.

  I don't think Danny wants to trade star players for nice pieces that won't get you anywhere, he wants to trade nice pieces for star players. People saw Danny trade KG and PP and decided that he was tanking when it's just as likely that he was getting what he could for players who were no longer stars.

 

If the only adequate price for Rondo is an established star player, then he's never going to be traded.

You may be right, but I'm not so sure that Danny would necessarily reject a package that checks off a lot of boxes but doesn't include an established star.  I do think there would need to be a player coming back who has at least a chance of becoming All-Star caliber.

  All you'd be doing is spinning your wheels, trading a star player for some pieces that you'd hope to use in a package to bring in a star player. It puts you farther away from being a top team, not closer to it.

Doubly so when we've already got a bunch of those kinds of assets.  It's not like a 10th 1st rounder or another expiring contract is going to really add much to what we can offer other teams.

I'd remind people to take a closer look at the package I specified -- not just another 1st rounder or an expiring contract.

The package would have to be a nice young player (potential All-Star but not necessarily a franchise talent), a solid first round pick, and cap relief.  I could see a draft day trade that involves a top 5-10 pick instead of the young player.

I don't agree that we already have "a bunch" of those types of assets -- we do have a lot of 1st round picks (likely to fall in the middle of the 1st round), but I think the only young player we have even close to the level I'm talking about is Sullinger.

Quality players get traded for packages like the one I'm talking about all the time in the NBA.  I understand that some people see Rondo as a franchise player so they think only a king's ransom will interest Ainge, but I don't think that's necessarily the case.

[BballTim]

For Rondo, I've maintained that I think any trade package for him will have to include at least one pick, at least one nice (but not necessarily great) prospect, and an opportunity to unload significant future salary.

  I don't think Danny wants to trade star players for nice pieces that won't get you anywhere, he wants to trade nice pieces for star players. People saw Danny trade KG and PP and decided that he was tanking when it's just as likely that he was getting what he could for players who were no longer stars.

 

If the only adequate price for Rondo is an established star player, then he's never going to be traded.

You may be right, but I'm not so sure that Danny would necessarily reject a package that checks off a lot of boxes but doesn't include an established star.  I do think there would need to be a player coming back who has at least a chance of becoming All-Star caliber.

  All you'd be doing is spinning your wheels, trading a star player for some pieces that you'd hope to use in a package to bring in a star player. It puts you farther away from being a top team, not closer to it.

We've covered this ground before in other topics; it depends whether or not you think the team needs to take some steps back before it can take a few more steps forward. 

If you think this team with Rondo is one second tier player (i.e. the type of player likely to be available in trades or free agency) away from being an elite team, or close to it, then you're right.

  Even if you think you'd need to add two such player to Rondo to be elite, it's obviously easier to find two such players than three.

[PhoSita]

I don't see why you don't think the Nets will stink for years into the future.

Quick list of the reasons:

1. Deron Williams, Joe Johnson, Brook Lopez all locked up for the near future.

That's at least two All-Star caliber players.  Joe obviously isn't what he used to be, but as recently as this past spring Deron was playing as well as he ever has. 

It's hard to be outright terrible when you have an All-Star point guard and a scorer at center like Lopez.

2. The Nets have all the money in the world, and no incentive to not continue spending it to field a competitive team.  They have no picks so it's not like they can have a "bridge year" to try and replenish the talent on the team.



I believe the Nets will make moves, up to and including one of Deron or Lopez, in order to get the team the pieces to at least be a 40-45 win team and make the playoffs.  With no picks, they can't string fans along with the hope of a lottery talent. 

The Nets may or may not make much of a recovery this season, but the path back from desolation to mediocrity isn't so hard to see for them.  Fire Kidd, sign some competent veterans on minimum deals, get a contributor for the mini-MLE, and have anything better than abysmal luck with injuries. 

If they're really desperate, they can trade Deron or Lopez for a package of 3-4 role players in their twenties who can shore up the weak spots and keep them around .500.

Does anybody really think after what we've seen this season that it's so hard for a team with no incentive to lose to field a team that can at least compete for a lower seed in this Eastern Conference?

[PhoSita]

  Even if you think you'd need to add two such player to Rondo to be elite, it's obviously easier to find two such players than three.

I'd rather not derail this thread further into a debate over whether or not Rondo will ever be traded and for what.  It's been debated at length elsewhere.  We've made all of these arguments before.

[BballTim]

For Rondo, I've maintained that I think any trade package for him will have to include at least one pick, at least one nice (but not necessarily great) prospect, and an opportunity to unload significant future salary.

  I don't think Danny wants to trade star players for nice pieces that won't get you anywhere, he wants to trade nice pieces for star players. People saw Danny trade KG and PP and decided that he was tanking when it's just as likely that he was getting what he could for players who were no longer stars.

 

If the only adequate price for Rondo is an established star player, then he's never going to be traded.

You may be right, but I'm not so sure that Danny would necessarily reject a package that checks off a lot of boxes but doesn't include an established star.  I do think there would need to be a player coming back who has at least a chance of becoming All-Star caliber.

  All you'd be doing is spinning your wheels, trading a star player for some pieces that you'd hope to use in a package to bring in a star player. It puts you farther away from being a top team, not closer to it.

Doubly so when we've already got a bunch of those kinds of assets.  It's not like a 10th 1st rounder or another expiring contract is going to really add much to what we can offer other teams.

I'd remind people to take a closer look at the package I specified -- not just another 1st rounder or an expiring contract.

The package would have to be a nice young player (potential All-Star but not necessarily a franchise talent), a solid first round pick, and cap relief.  I could see a draft day trade that involves a top 5-10 pick instead of the young player.

Quality players get traded for packages like that all the time in the NBA.  I understand that some people see Rondo as a franchise player so they think only a king's ransom will interest Ainge, but I don't think that's necessarily the case.

  When Rondo's healthy he plays like a star in the playoffs. You need players like that if you want to contend. You're unlikely to find one amongst the return pieces in your trade.

[PhoSita]

  When Rondo's healthy he plays like a star in the playoffs. You need players like that if you want to contend. You're unlikely to find one amongst the return pieces in your trade.

Correct.  A Rondo trade would signal that the plan is to break things down a bit and build them back up with newer, younger pieces, because there isn't going to be a piece in the deal that is on the same level as Rondo at the time of the trade.  Otherwise the trade wouldn't make sense from the other team's perspective.


I think such a trade could happen because Danny Ainge's rebuilding MO is all about building up multiple, fungible assets to afford for maximum flexibility so that he can be really opportunistic and creative making deals.

If Rondo were 24 or 25 years old, I'd be much more skeptical that he could traded.  But even assuming a very optimistic rebuild schedule, Rondo's going to be 30 before this team is ready to have a competitive playoff series against a contending team.

[BballTim]

  When Rondo's healthy he plays like a star in the playoffs. You need players like that if you want to contend. You're unlikely to find one amongst the return pieces in your trade.

Correct.  A Rondo trade would signal that the plan is to break things down a bit and build them back up with newer, younger pieces, because there isn't going to be a piece in the deal that is on the same level as Rondo at the time of the trade.  Otherwise the trade wouldn't make sense from the other team's perspective.


I think such a trade could happen because Danny Ainge's rebuilding MO is all about building up multiple, fungible assets to afford for maximum flexibility so that he can be really opportunistic and creative making deals.

If Rondo were 24 or 25 years old, I'd be much more skeptical that he could traded.  But even assuming a very optimistic rebuild schedule, Rondo's going to be 30 before this team is ready to have a competitive playoff series against a contending team.

  Right now, in terms of assets, Danny's got Sully/KO/Bradley/Vitor/Crawford plus contracts in Huphries and Bogans plus a trade exception plus players like Bass and Lee along with 9 first round picks in the last 5 years. He's not at the point where he's trying to gather assets, he's at the point where he's figuring out what to do with them. There's no reason to think it will take 3 years to make a move.

[PhoSita]

  When Rondo's healthy he plays like a star in the playoffs. You need players like that if you want to contend. You're unlikely to find one amongst the return pieces in your trade.

Correct.  A Rondo trade would signal that the plan is to break things down a bit and build them back up with newer, younger pieces, because there isn't going to be a piece in the deal that is on the same level as Rondo at the time of the trade.  Otherwise the trade wouldn't make sense from the other team's perspective.


I think such a trade could happen because Danny Ainge's rebuilding MO is all about building up multiple, fungible assets to afford for maximum flexibility so that he can be really opportunistic and creative making deals.

If Rondo were 24 or 25 years old, I'd be much more skeptical that he could traded.  But even assuming a very optimistic rebuild schedule, Rondo's going to be 30 before this team is ready to have a competitive playoff series against a contending team.

  Right now, in terms of assets, Danny's got Sully/KO/Bradley/Vitor/Crawford plus contracts in Huphries and Bogans plus a trade exception plus players like Bass and Lee along with 9 first round picks in the last 5 years. He's not at the point where he's trying to gather assets, he's at the point where he's figuring out what to do with them. There's no reason to think it will take 3 years to make a move.

But there's your problem right there -- you just listed a bunch of guys, but I think Sullinger's the only really notable asset of the bunch.  The team might not even re-sign Bradley. 

The rest of the players you mentioned probably wouldn't fetch a 1st round pick on the trade market.  And those future picks are definitely nice, but until we have any idea where they'll land it's impossible to assess their value.

Since the team likely won't get a high pick in the lottery this season, trading Rondo might be the only way to add another couple of really significant assets to the pot, unless Ainge finds another gem in the latter half of the 1st round.


Also -- when I say that I think it'll take at least 3 years, I'm not just talking about making the move for the right pieces.  It takes time for a team to grow together, too, unless the collection of talent is just off the charts. 

[Smitty77]

Bill is a genius!!:-))  Here is a quote from Bill's article:

I could see the Celtics shelving Rondo for the season, making a self-sabotage trade and careering toward the lottery.

Careering???  I am assuming he meant careening??:-))

Dictionary.com Bill!!  It is FREE:-)))

Smitty77

[PhoSita]

Bill is a genius!!:-))  Here is a quote from Bill's article:

I could see the Celtics shelving Rondo for the season, making a self-sabotage trade and careering toward the lottery.

Careering???  I am assuming he meant careening??:-))

Dictionary.com Bill!!  It is FREE:-)))

Smitty77

Bill makes too much money to bother with proof-reading.

[nickagneta]

I understand the logic of the inflated win total but looking more closely at that and looking more closely at the individuals on this team most responsible for those wins, I come off with a bit of a different take.

First the inflated win total. The Celtics appear to be beating the teams they should beat, being competitive for major portions of games versus great teams, then losing sometimes badly, and have beaten good teams and a great team. That is not the pattern of a bad team just beating other bad teams creating an inflated win total. In any year that is the pattern of a good team that is competing on all levels and looking at the playoffs.

Also, they are doing it with:

Sullenger - 23 years old
Bradley - 23 years old
Green- 27 years old
Faverani - 25 years old
Pressey - 22 years old
Olynyk - 22 years old
Stevens - 37 years old

Sullenger, Bradley and Crawford are all still playing in their first 82 games at the position they are playing. Sully played half a year and got hurt and is playing his way back into shape. Bradley, because of various reasons, really has only played a portion of this season and the end of the 2012 season at SG. This is Crawford first time playing PG.

Yet all three have shown to be much much more than just role players. They are starting to excel and in a short time are now looking like quality NBA starters, maybe more. We might have a Sixth Man of the Year star there and possibly two future All-Stars though not perennials. Why is is so hard to envision that we might be a young team with budding stars already that are just young?

Throw Jeff Green into the mix and if he could ever replicate the consistency of the post ASG time last year suddenly is looking like a scoring star. Then there's this guy named Rondo that has a ring and 4 ASG appearances and 2 1st team All-NBA appearances that hasn't even played a minute.

Its mostly the older vets that have been playing roles while the youth have been starring. I truly believe, and have said this for quite some time, that this team already has excellent youth with star capability and that this team would never be a 15-20 win team. 30-35 win was my prediction and that might be low because I didn't expect Crawford happening, though I have always thought Sully and Bradley could be.

Also, this is a deep draft and two picks in the teens will be very valuable. David West was chosen 18th the year Lebron came out. Rondo was chosen 21st one year. Danny Granger 17th in a top heavy draft. Al Jefferson, JR Smith and Josh Smith all came out in a deep draft and were picks in the teens.

This year, guys like Perry Ellis, Wayne Seldon, Mitch McGary, Dario Saric, Alex Poythress, Willie Cauley Stein, Glenn Robinson, and others will all be there for the C's to get and one or three of those guys could be future star players in this league. Add that to the possibility of future lottery picks in 2015(step back year maybe) and 2016 and 2017 and 2018 from the Nets and the future is bright regardless of landing one of the college stars the press has brainwashed so many on this site into believing is the only way to ever get back to contending.

[BballTim]

  When Rondo's healthy he plays like a star in the playoffs. You need players like that if you want to contend. You're unlikely to find one amongst the return pieces in your trade.

Correct.  A Rondo trade would signal that the plan is to break things down a bit and build them back up with newer, younger pieces, because there isn't going to be a piece in the deal that is on the same level as Rondo at the time of the trade.  Otherwise the trade wouldn't make sense from the other team's perspective.


I think such a trade could happen because Danny Ainge's rebuilding MO is all about building up multiple, fungible assets to afford for maximum flexibility so that he can be really opportunistic and creative making deals.

If Rondo were 24 or 25 years old, I'd be much more skeptical that he could traded.  But even assuming a very optimistic rebuild schedule, Rondo's going to be 30 before this team is ready to have a competitive playoff series against a contending team.

  Right now, in terms of assets, Danny's got Sully/KO/Bradley/Vitor/Crawford plus contracts in Huphries and Bogans plus a trade exception plus players like Bass and Lee along with 9 first round picks in the last 5 years. He's not at the point where he's trying to gather assets, he's at the point where he's figuring out what to do with them. There's no reason to think it will take 3 years to make a move.

But there's your problem right there -- you just listed a bunch of guys, but I think Sullinger's the only really notable asset of the bunch.  The team might not even re-sign Bradley. 

The rest of the players you mentioned probably wouldn't fetch a 1st round pick on the trade market.  And those future picks are definitely nice, but until we have any idea where they'll land it's impossible to assess their value.

Since the team likely won't get a high pick in the lottery this season, trading Rondo might be the only way to add another couple of really significant assets to the pot, unless Ainge finds another gem in the latter half of the 1st round.


Also -- when I say that I think it'll take at least 3 years, I'm not just talking about making the move for the right pieces.  It takes time for a team to grow together, too, unless the collection of talent is just off the charts.

  Bradley, Crawford and probably Olynyk are better players than anyone we traded in 2007 for KG and Ray aside from Al. I'd say that if Crawford keeps playing well he'd be worth a 1st rounder and I wouldn't be surprised if Bradley would as well. And I'll go out on a limb and assume you aren't trying to imply that future 1st rounders aren't good trade assets until you know where they'll land in their respective drafts.

[the_Bird]

I know Pressy's babyfaced and all, but he's hella-precocious to be contributing at 2 years old!