Is there a big difference between pick #10 and #15?

[LarBrd33]

For those of you following College ball this year... what's your thoughts?

We have the 10th worst record in the league this year.  Yes, teams with the 10th best ping pong ball odds have landed top 3 picks in the lotto, but let's forget about that for a minute.  We have the 10th worst record... presumably that would mean the #10 pick.

But because of how bad the Leastern Conference is, we're currently leading the Atlantic and would end up with the #15 pick if the season ended today.  The Pelicans, Timberwolves, Memphis, Lakers and Suns all have better records than us and would be picking ahead of us.

I'm not asking a blanket question about 10 vs 15, because it's different every year.  So don't tell me about how Al Jefferson went #15 out of High School.  I'm asking SPECIFICALLY about the 2014 NBA Draft and the upcoming crop of talent... is there a big drop off after a certain point?  I've been told there's about 8 guys in this draft who could end up being franchise players.  Is there a big drop-off after #8? 

Right now we'd be stuck with picks #15 and #18.  Would there be anyone in the 9-14 range worth combining the picks for?  Looking for someone knowledgeable to chime in.

[Smitty77]

For those of you following College ball this year... what's your thoughts?

We have the 10th worst record in the league this year.  Yes, teams with the 10th best ping pong ball odds have landed top 3 picks in the lotto, but let's forget about that for a minute.  We have the 10th worst record... presumably that would mean the #10 pick.

Thanks for clearing that up for me.  If we make the playoffs, we cannot draft in the top 14 unless we trade up, correct?

Smitty77

But because of how bad the Leastern Conference is, we're currently leading the Atlantic and would end up with the #15 pick if the season ended today.  The Pelicans, Timberwolves, Memphis, Lakers and Suns all have better records than us and would be picking ahead of us.

I'm not asking a blanket question about 10 vs 15, because it's different every year.  So don't tell me about how Al Jefferson went #15 out of High School.  I'm asking SPECIFICALLY about the 2014 NBA Draft and the upcoming crop of talent... is there a big drop off after a certain point?  I've been told there's about 8 guys in this draft who could end up being franchise players.  Is there a big drop-off after #8? 

Right now we'd be stuck with picks #15 and #18.  Would there be anyone in the 9-14 range worth combining the picks for?  Looking for someone knowledgeable to chime in.

[jc3celticsphan]

http://nbadraft.net/2014mock_draft

the mock drafts a good guide

i dont watch much college ball but it shows a good talent in aaron gordon available at the 18 pick so i would assume the talent drop off is somewhere in the 20's which isnt bad.. actually realy good for us

[BballTim]

For those of you following College ball this year... what's your thoughts?

We have the 10th worst record in the league this year.  Yes, teams with the 10th best ping pong ball odds have landed top 3 picks in the lotto, but let's forget about that for a minute.  We have the 10th worst record... presumably that would mean the #10 pick.

But because of how bad the Leastern Conference is, we're currently leading the Atlantic and would end up with the #15 pick if the season ended today.  The Pelicans, Timberwolves, Memphis, Lakers and Suns all have better records than us and would be picking ahead of us.

I'm not asking a blanket question about 10 vs 15, because it's different every year.  So don't tell me about how Al Jefferson went #15 out of High School.  I'm asking SPECIFICALLY about the 2014 NBA Draft and the upcoming crop of talent... is there a big drop off after a certain point?  I've been told there's about 8 guys in this draft who could end up being franchise players.  Is there a big drop-off after #8? 

Right now we'd be stuck with picks #15 and #18.  Would there be anyone in the 9-14 range worth combining the picks for?  Looking for someone knowledgeable to chime in.

  Personally I'd look at all your favorite draft sites for a range of picks (say 8-17 or so) and see if they all have the same picks near the top of that range or if it varies a lot. If they're mainly the same (and you don't think they just copy each other) then there *might* be a decent spread among 9-14.

[LarBrd33]

Smitty you put your response mid-quote.

To answer your question... only the 14 non-playoff teams enter the lotto.   The top 3 picks are determined by ping pong balls.  Only the 14 non-playoff teams are eligible for ping pong balls.  Obviously the worst record has the best odds of landing the top pick.

The 16 playoff teams have their picks #15-30 based on record.  So I believe even if we win the Atlantic with the 4th seed... having the worst record of any playoff team would lock us in at the #15 pick.  No lotto balls... you're just locked in at #15.

Point is, in the Western conference there are currently 5 teams (Wolves, Pelicans, Lakers, Suns and Grizz) who have better records than us... and would be in the lotto picking ahead of us.  The rich get richer.

But I'm wondering how big a difference pick #10 to pick #15 really is in this draft... because currently we have the 10th worst record in the league.

[winsomme]

In terms of talent that is being reported in mock drafts, there isn't too much difference. But once you get out of the lottery, you start to see players going back to school.

Last year, we saw McDermott, McGary, Saric, GlenRob,McAdoo all drop out of the draft and this year I would worry about the same thing happening. I'd worry about guys like Harrison, Gordon, Vonleh, Seldon, Young, et al returning because they didn't get a promise in the top 10...which something you could do at #10 but not do at #15.

I think the leverage is the real difference for 10 vs 15 instead of talent. At 15 you really need things to break right for you whereas with a top pick you can make things happen (ie making a promise to keep a player in the draft)

[JBcat]

Check out the "Players you like projected between 10 and 30 in the 2014 draft" thread (had trouble copying the link here) to get an idea of what players people like projected in that area.

I'd like to add Zach Levine of UCLA to the list.  Climbing up the draft charts putting up excellent numbers not even starting.   Watched a little bit of him today.  Very explosive guard.

[PhoSita]

In a word, yes.

[Boris Badenov]

In terms of talent that is being reported in mock drafts, there isn't too much difference. But once you get out of the lottery, you start to see players going back to school.

I agree and I think for this reason, it's much too early to assess the 10-15 range.

There may be a few guys who are on the fence and facing a choice between getting picked #12 this year, or potentially top 3-5 next year. It's hard to predict how those decisions will break, and that could really swing the talent available in the middle of the first round this year.

[PhoSita]

Looking at DraftExpress . . . looks like it could be the difference between getting a guy like Gordon / Embiid / Cauley-Stein and getting a solid wing prospect like Hood / Young / Selden / Robinson.


Which is to say ... I think we'll get a good player regardless.  But not with the same upside.

[Smitty77]

Smitty you put your response mid-quote.

To answer your question... only the 14 non-playoff teams enter the lotto.   The top 3 picks are determined by ping pong balls.  Only the 14 non-playoff teams are eligible for ping pong balls.  Obviously the worst record has the best odds of landing the top pick.

The 16 playoff teams have their picks #15-30 based on record.  So I believe even if we win the Atlantic with the 4th seed... having the worst record of any playoff team would lock us in at the #15 pick.  No lotto balls... you're just locked in at #15.

Point is, in the Western conference there are currently 5 teams (Wolves, Pelicans, Lakers, Suns and Grizz) who have better records than us... and would be in the lotto picking ahead of us.  The rich get richer.

But I'm wondering how big a difference pick #10 to pick #15 really is in this draft... because currently we have the 10th worst record in the league.

Sorry about that.  Thanks for clarifying for me:-))  I am a little dense!!:-))

[wahz]

We could still end up with two top 10-15 picks between what we have, and the Atl/Nets pick. Keep in mind we are 9-12 and tenth right now(if we don't win the division.) Rondo sounds like he is leaning later than mid January now so we won't have him for the tough west coast trip. I think its 50/50 we trade up one of the picks in a package with any number of assets but we will have to get lucky with trading partners.
Danny Ferry has worked with DA before so maybe we can't work something out there to get the BETTER of the Nets/Atl pick.

[billysan]

To answer the OP, there are a number of players in that 10-15 (or even 20) range that are probably better than the stats indicate IMO. A few examples are Selden from Kansas, Harrison from Kentucky and Hood from Duke. These guys are either playing out of position or getting fewer touches to accomodate other players on the team with higher levels of hype.

This is going to give them less visibility to scouts and is of course creating a danger that they will elect to stay in school another year to maximize their draft stock. They are still none the less very good players that deserve upper first round consideration.

Mcadoo from North Carolina is being pushed to SF from his natural PF position and had to play out of position last season as well if memory serves. It seriously hurt his draft position last year and will this year IMO. He will likely become a second rounder instead of a first rounder.

[Roy H.]

In reality, yes, of course there is.  The 10th best player in this draft will have a fairly significant edge on the 15th best player.

However, the player selected at #15 could of course be just as good, or better, than the 10th pick, because GMs get it wrong all the time. 

For instance, in 1998, the best players in the draft were picked 9th and 10th.  The Celtics having that 10th pick was golden; if they'd gotten the 15th pick, there was no franchise player left on the board.  Before that draft, nobody was predicting that it was ten players deep, or that Pierce would fall that far.

Contrast that with the 2004 draft, where we picked Al Jefferson #15.  If we had the #10 pick, it's highly likely that we end up with one of Robert Swift, Sebastian Telfair, or Luke Jackson.  There, having the 15th pick was better, due to faulty talent evaluation.

So, the value of #15 vs. #10 this year depends upon the talent evaluation of those teams picking in front of us, and Danny's own talent evaluation.  If Danny can grab the best player on the board, then #10 is going to end up being quite a bit more valuable than #15, and the same is probably true in any draft.

[Celtics4ever]

It a crapshot of course, the higher you pick gives you more choices.  There have been guys who were picked at 15 outplay lower picks.   Rondo was what early 20s and he was way better than guys picked ahead of him.   I do think higher picks while not safe has less bust potential.