Is there a big difference between pick #10 and #15?

[kraidstar]

there's definitely good talent 1-20 this year, but of course the guys later in the draft have more flaws, and are thus less likely to become true cornerstone/franchise players. there will be some all-stars in the 10-20 range. the earlier guys, if you watch any of the video, already look like NBA players. the later guys are well-developed in certain areas, but need work in others and will likely be more of a risk.

[Celtics18]

For those of you following College ball this year... what's your thoughts?

We have the 10th worst record in the league this year.  Yes, teams with the 10th best ping pong ball odds have landed top 3 picks in the lotto, but let's forget about that for a minute.  We have the 10th worst record... presumably that would mean the #10 pick.

But because of how bad the Leastern Conference is, we're currently leading the Atlantic and would end up with the #15 pick if the season ended today.  The Pelicans, Timberwolves, Memphis, Lakers and Suns all have better records than us and would be picking ahead of us.

I'm not asking a blanket question about 10 vs 15, because it's different every year.  So don't tell me about how Al Jefferson went #15 out of High School.  I'm asking SPECIFICALLY about the 2014 NBA Draft and the upcoming crop of talent... is there a big drop off after a certain point? I've been told there's about 8 guys in this draft who could end up being franchise players.  Is there a big drop-off after #8? 

Right now we'd be stuck with picks #15 and #18.  Would there be anyone in the 9-14 range worth combining the picks for?  Looking for someone knowledgeable to chime in.

For there to be eight franchise guys in this draft, it would have to be more than twice as good as the best drafts ever.  I guess I'm not saying that it's impossible, but it seems highly, highly unlikely.

The other thing I want to mention is that it's also highly, highly unlikely that the top eight players drafted in this draft end up being the eight best pros.  Again, I don' think that's ever happened in any other draft. 

The draft simply is nowhere near as exact a science as many wish it to be.  Young basketball players are not yet fully developed physically, mentally, or from a basketball skills perspective at eighteen or nineteen years of age.  And, if you find one that is, that's a problem, too.  You don't want to draft someone who isn't going to get better as he ages. 

So, while it's not entirely a crap shoot, you'll probably never see a draft that approaches anything close to a completely linear correlation between how high guys were drafted and how good they eventually become as pros. 

 

[BirdMchaleParish]

There are players that could slide to 10 that wont be available at 15. The Paul Pierce draft comes to mind.

[mmmmm]

In reality, yes, of course there is.  The 10th best player in this draft will have a fairly significant edge on the 15th best player.

However, the player selected at #15 could of course be just as good, or better, than the 10th pick, because GMs get it wrong all the time. 

For instance, in 1998, the best players in the draft were picked 9th and 10th.  The Celtics having that 10th pick was golden; if they'd gotten the 15th pick, there was no franchise player left on the board.  Before that draft, nobody was predicting that it was ten players deep, or that Pierce would fall that far.

Contrast that with the 2004 draft, where we picked Al Jefferson #15.  If we had the #10 pick, it's highly likely that we end up with one of Robert Swift, Sebastian Telfair, or Luke Jackson.  There, having the 15th pick was better, due to faulty talent evaluation.

So, the value of #15 vs. #10 this year depends upon the talent evaluation of those teams picking in front of us, and Danny's own talent evaluation.  If Danny can grab the best player on the board, then #10 is going to end up being quite a bit more valuable than #15, and the same is probably true in any draft.

'Agree with this.

Historically, the 'probability' that a #10 pick is a great player is higher than for the #15 pick.  But those are probabilities.  Not certainties.

Once the draft starts to lineup, it's not just the likely order of the players that matter, but of course the order of the teams.  Who is picking in front of whom?

[Birdman]

U just got to get lucky in the draft..picking a college player is just like playing Russia Roulette..never know..

[Celtics4ever]

We have the 10th worst record in the league this year.  Yes, teams with the 10th best ping pong ball odds have landed top 3 picks in the lotto, but let's forget about that for a minute.  We have the 10th worst record... presumably that would mean the #10 pick.

Only if Stern has his mitts off the handles of the draft.

[mgent]

In reality, yes, of course there is.  The 10th best player in this draft will have a fairly significant edge on the 15th best player.

However, the player selected at #15 could of course be just as good, or better, than the 10th pick, because GMs get it wrong all the time. 

For instance, in 1998, the best players in the draft were picked 9th and 10th.  The Celtics having that 10th pick was golden; if they'd gotten the 15th pick, there was no franchise player left on the board.  Before that draft, nobody was predicting that it was ten players deep, or that Pierce would fall that far.

Contrast that with the 2004 draft, where we picked Al Jefferson #15.  If we had the #10 pick, it's highly likely that we end up with one of Robert Swift, Sebastian Telfair, or Luke Jackson.  There, having the 15th pick was better, due to faulty talent evaluation.

So, the value of #15 vs. #10 this year depends upon the talent evaluation of those teams picking in front of us, and Danny's own talent evaluation.  If Danny can grab the best player on the board, then #10 is going to end up being quite a bit more valuable than #15, and the same is probably true in any draft.

'Agree with this.

Historically, the 'probability' that a #10 pick is a great player is higher than for the #15 pick.  But those are probabilities.  Not certainties.

Once the draft starts to lineup, it's not just the likely order of the players that matter, but of course the order of the teams.  Who is picking in front of whom?

You both are right, it's just as much about GMs as it is about players on the board.  It's completely possible Danny could pick the exact same player at 10 that he would at 15.

[LooseCannon]

U just got to get lucky in the draft..picking a college player is just like playing Russia Roulette..never know..

Do you feel that way about Darko?  (not a college player, but still...)

[get_banners]

From my understanding, there is a big drop-off in potential after the top 5-8 in this class. Good talent still there, but it is top-heavy. There isn't a big difference between 10-15. Granted, its not like the draft is a science (think of our own fortunes: Pierce at 10, Rondo at 22, Big Al at 15, etc.).

[clover]

Heck, after that Knicks thrashing, the question might be, "Is there a big difference between pick #20 and #25?"

 

[Jailan34]

Heck, after that Knicks thrashing, the question might be, "Is there a big difference between pick #20 and #25?"

 

Depressing.