Some thoughts about the chances of the Celtics making a mid-season trade

[LooseCannon]

1. The desire to stay out of the luxury tax and avoid the repeater rate is the dominant factor involving what trades will be made.  The Celtics simply don't have wiggle room, which complicates a lot of deals.  Rebuilding teams can often serve as a third team in a trade, gaining assets for facilitating a trade that would not be allowed between the two principal teams.  The Celtics cannot be that third team renting out its cap space to make a deal possible.

2. It is highly unlikely a team will give up a 2014 draft pick.  Most of the teams dumb enough to undervalue first-round picks have already traded their picks.  The Celtics are unlikely to pick up a first-round pick in a trade unless Rondo, Sullinger, or Olynyk are going out in the deal.

3. I don't expect any trades before mid-January.  Most teams aren't desperate yet.  Teams are not sure if they should make a playoff push or go into tank mode.  We will probably see the passing of the January 10 deadline for unguaranteed contracts to become guaranteed before we see any deals, as teams try to look for cheap options first.

4. The Celtics' most likely trading partner is a playoff team that will suffer an injury to a key rotation player sometime between now and the trade deadline.

5. Kris Humphries' expiring contract isn't gold.  His salary doesn't match up easily with other contracts.  I think there is a strong likelihood that he ends up being bought out.

6. It might be a buyers' market this trade season, with a lot of teams looking to rebuild and sell off veterans for whatever they can get.

[Yoki_IsTheName]

IF Jordan Crawford plays consistently in this level, he will get a ton of attention from Playoff teams who may need a PG.

Chicago may be an option. Since Crawford is technically an expiring contract too, his scoring and play making will tremendously help them. Will he be worth a 1st rounder though? Maybe not the 2014.

Bass could be the same for teams who may need big man help. He would definitely not be worth a first rounder but he may land an expiring contract.

That's just me.

[dreamgreen]

I would say that there is a very good chance they make a trade, the question is will the move be to make the team better this year (and going forward) or to help us tank?

[Jailan34]

I hope we make some moves, I wouldn't turn down any trade as long as it helps us rebuild. However at the same time I don't think we have a ton of pieces of major value besides our picks, which I am not okay with giving up unless we're trading for a better pick.

It will definitely be an interesting season and I hope we make some smart moves to help us rebuild because a lot of Danny's more recent trades and signings I've been against.

[Lucky17]

I pretty much agree with everything you say here, LC. I'm still optimistic that something might be done with Hump's contract, but I can't deny that a buyout isn't a possibility if no trade partners can be found by the deadline.

The trade landscape in January and February always ratchets up several notches. I'm confident that Ainge will be able to make a trade or two, however modest.

[Celtics18]

I don't understand the point in buying out Humphries.  Why would we do that?  He's a free agent after this season.  What's so bad about just letting him expire and either re-signing him at a cheap price or letting him walk?

[ssspence]

A couple of thoughts here.

The C could make a more-salary-going-out-than-coming-in trade with a team well under the tax -- Houston and Charlotte come to mind, and both are above average trade fits with Boston. If so, the Cs could use the PP trade exception to acquire an asset at the deadline and still stay under the tax.

Also, I think it's fair to say both Green and Bradley could each fetch a 1st round pick in an appropriate deal, though I don't see Ainge trading either in such a deal.

[connor]

2. It is highly unlikely a team will give up a 2014 draft pick.  Most of the teams dumb enough to undervalue first-round picks have already traded their picks.  The Celtics are unlikely to pick up a first-round pick in a trade unless Rondo, Sullinger, or Olynyk are going out in the deal.

5. Kris Humphries' expiring contract isn't gold.  His salary doesn't match up easily with other contracts.  I think there is a strong likelihood that he ends up being bought out.

I agree with everything except these two points, which I only partially disagree with.

On point #2: I think there are plenty of teams that would be fine with giving up a 2014 pick, so long as they know its not going to be a lottery pick. You're right that the C's most likely trading partner is a  playoff team, in which case it'd probably be a pick in the 20s. Despite this year being a loaded draft class and it being a buyer's market, those late first picks are still always a gamble/project. A team like OKC probably still says no because of their commitment to building through the draft/being cheap, but any of the other top teams (Houston, San Antonio, Indiana, Chicago, Portland etc) would probably rather pick up a guy who can contribute now rather than a late 2014 first.

On point #5: No Humph's contract isn't gold, but silver maybe? At the very least it's bronze. He has good size, can actually contribute off the bench and although it's and awkward amount, it's still expiring. He may not bring back the return that people might expect, but there is some value there and it makes no sense to me that we'd buy him out rather than finding something to bring back at least some value.

That's Danny's job, to maximize as much value out of our assets as possible, even if it's awkward.

[Lucky17]

A couple of thoughts here.

The C could make a more-salary-going-out-than-coming-in trade with a team well under the tax -- Houston and Charlotte come to mind, and both are above average trade fits with Boston. If so, the Cs could use the PP trade exception to acquire an asset at the deadline and still stay under the tax.

True, although I suspect Ainge's plan is to leverage the TE during the opening flurry of the offseason FA frenzy to improve the club, either by landing a FA outright or helping another team clear space to do so.

Also, don't forget that there a couple of teams out there (I think) with small TEs of their own. For instance, the Clippers have a modest TE remaining from the Bledsoe trade, enough to slot in Jordan Crawford.

[nickagneta]

Seems to make sense to let Humphries expire and to hold his rights for a sign and trade possibility than to buy him out. At least then, there is a possibility of gaining an asset just for facilitating Humph signing elsewhere when he couldn't have done so without their help. If his cap hold causes problems trying to sign someone they could renounce him but until that happens, and I think a lot would have to happen for the Cs to have room to sign someone, a buyout just ddoesn't make good business sense except to save a few dollars, and that is if Humph is willing to accept a buyout.

[Lucky17]

Seems to make sense to let Humphries expire and to hold his rights for a sign and trade possibility than to buy him out. At least then, there is a possibility of gaining an asset just for facilitating Humph signing elsewhere when he couldn't have done so without their help. If his cap hold causes problems trying to sign someone they could renounce him but until that happens, and I think a lot would have to happen for the Cs to have room to sign someone, a buyout just ddoesn't make good business sense except to save a few dollars, and that is if Humph is willing to accept a buyout.

FWIW, Hump's cap hold going into next season will be $18 million.

http://data.shamsports.com/content/pages/data/salaries/celtics.jsp

[Lucky17]

Also, re: a Hump buyout, even if he takes 80 cents on the dollar, those savings would certainly grant the Celtics more wiggle room under the LT threshold. So even those modest gains could be worthwhile.

[LooseCannon]

I don't understand the point in buying out Humphries.  Why would we do that?  He's a free agent after this season.  What's so bad about just letting him expire and either re-signing him at a cheap price or letting him walk?

I don't see a point in re-signing him.  He's not really a sign-and-trade guy because I don't think anyone offers him more than the MLE.

A buy-out would give Ainge room under the luxury tax threshold to sign a player or two for the remainder of the season with an unguaranteed extra season or two, creating the opportunity to take a gamble on unproven talent while creating a possible trade asset.

Marshon Brooks for a minimum salary guy and a second-round pick to also create room to sign such a low-risk gamble is another move I would like to do.

I do tend to value second-round picks more than most people around here.  If nothing else, should the Celtics be in a position to throw some firsts into a trade for a star, maybe the other team would be willing to take two firsts and collection of seconds rather than three firsts.

[tyrone biggums]

Guys like Bass Crawford Green Bradley and Lee will all be guys who are at risk of being traded at the deadline. I expect Ainge to attempt to attach Wallace to any of these guys in any deal. The goal would be to get expiring contracts for 2015. Rondo will not be traded especially after the Rose injury. The C's aren't going to rush him back.

[ssspence]

A couple of thoughts here.

The C could make a more-salary-going-out-than-coming-in trade with a team well under the tax -- Houston and Charlotte come to mind, and both are above average trade fits with Boston. If so, the Cs could use the PP trade exception to acquire an asset at the deadline and still stay under the tax.

True, although I suspect Ainge's plan is to leverage the TE during the opening flurry of the offseason FA frenzy to improve the club, either by landing a FA outright or helping another team clear space to do so.

Also, don't forget that there a couple of teams out there (I think) with small TEs of their own. For instance, the Clippers have a modest TE remaining from the Bledsoe trade, enough to slot in Jordan Crawford.

But they're already in the tax, which makes it that much more painful for Mr. Sterling. Anyway I get your point.

I was thinking a little more along the lines of a Fab Melo style trade -- maybe a  team that wants to make a deal to add a key player at the deadline, but can't fit it under the lux tax line, and therefore needs to shed a worthless player, and give up a pick in the process.

So what I'm getting at is, I could see Ainge doing a deal well before the deadline and wouldn't be surprised if this is a designed benefit of such deal. If the Cs traded a veteran or two -- say, to either the Kings or the Cats -- I suspect Ainge would push for as little salary back this year as possible...