Rondo Trade w/ Jazz

[LarBrd33]

Lots of teams have fine point guards already.  Lotto teams likely don't want to build around Rondo... so the idea that they'll give up significant young prospects for him doesn't make sense.   The teams that will want a guy like Rondo are teams that #1 - are close to contention and #2 - actually have use for a quarterback.   That rules out a ton of teams.

So, a fringe playoff team with a PG who is inferior to Rondo?

Maybe the Toronto's front office wants to clear out the old regime's free agent mistakes and offer DeMar DeRozan, Kyle Lowry, Landry Fields and draft picks for Rondo, Bradley, and Wallace.  Or Portland, desperate to keep Lamarcus Aldridge offers a pupu platter of guys like Meyers Leonard and Thomas Robinson as well as a pick or two in the hopes of going with a three-guard rotation of Rondo, Lillard, and Matthews.

Possibly a fringe playoff team.  I think you're more likely to see a fringe contender go after him... a team that is almost on the verge of championship contention.  So a team like Memphis, Indiana or Rockets.    Those teams are in the race, but probably aren't winning anything.  Memphis is probably content with Conley.  I could see the Rockets or Indiana going for it, though.  If you replace Jeremy Lin with Rondo, how much better does that team become?  If you replace George Hill with Rondo, can the Pacers take out the Bulls/Heat?   

If Toronto traded DeMar DeRozan, Kyle Lowry, Landry Fields for Rajon Rondo.... they wouldn't be a contender.  They probably would be worse, actually.

[Endless Paradise]

I feel Indiana would jump at the opportunity to trade for Rondo, but I'm not entirely certain on Houston.  Remember, Harden acts as the de facto point: he's a playmaker and much more effective with the ball in his hands.  Houston just needs a point guard who plays solid defense and can work well off the ball (and preferably can hit the 3 on a consistent basis, since, you know, 'lytics).  I think everyone would agree that Rondo's strengths come with the ball in his hands most of the time.

I certainly see Rondo working with the Pistons, though.  I also think he'd be good with the Knicks.

[LarBrd33]

Boston, meanwhile, is at least a half decade away from sniffing the playoffs. 

  There's no real reason to think that this is true. There are way too many unknowns (including what they're going to do with the plethora of first rounders in the near future) to have any idea what the team will look like in a year or two.

+1, see 2007...one year we have the worst record in the league, next year we won the championship...

not saying this is the same, but my point is, Danny won't just sit back and see players develop and play our way into the playoffs. He is going to develop them, and trade them for more assets to get us there faster. Waiting for players to develop just to even make playoffs is painful and 5 years is a very long time, if by then he still keeps his job. He is probably going to trade a player or even a lot of players to get someone back within the next year or 2. Besides those first rounders, we also have that 10 mil trade exception which I am anxious to see how he is going to use it for.

I hear that.  And that's always a possibility, I guess.  Rondo could be our PIerce.  Once we bottom out this year, our Top 8 pick will probably be worth an aging star.  Are there any all-stars in their early 30s?

Unfortunately, there is no prospect on this team anywhere near the potential of Big Al in 2007.  And there's no aging superstar like KEvin Garnett available on the market.   Say you dump our top 8 pick for a 31 year old allstar like David Lee... and say it was at all possible to trade Sully + Oly + Bradley + multiple 1sts for 32 year old Dwayne Wade.    Yeah, I guess Wade, Rondo and Lee could make the playoffs.  Obviously that isn't happening, though.

I'm operating under the assumption this team is going to be build on guys who haven't even been drafted yet.  Even if we landed Wiggins in the draft... judging by how long it took Durant and LeBron, that probably means Boston isn't a playoff team until the 2016-17 season... and isn't a contender until the 2018-19 season. 

We already did the 3 year window thing.  It was fun... for 3 years.  It's not sustainable.  I think the plan now is to actually build the right way... draft young stars and build a foundation that lasts over a decade.  That process takes time.  We'll be garbage for a couple seasons at least.  It will take at least 5 for us to be a championship contender.  If you haven't done it yet, now would be a wonderful time to start having babies.  If you time it just right, you'll be able to enjoy Celtics games with your Children in 5-10 years when this team matters again.

[LooseCannon]

Boston, meanwhile, is at least a half decade away from sniffing the playoffs. 

  There's no real reason to think that this is true. There are way too many unknowns (including what they're going to do with the plethora of first rounders in the near future) to have any idea what the team will look like in a year or two.

+1, see 2007...one year we have the worst record in the league, next year we won the championship...

not saying this is the same, but my point is, Danny won't just sit back and see players develop and play our way into the playoffs. He is going to develop them, and trade them for more assets to get us there faster. Waiting for players to develop just to even make playoffs is painful and 5 years is a very long time, if by then he still keeps his job. He is probably going to trade a player or even a lot of players to get someone back within the next year or 2. Besides those first rounders, we also have that 10 mil trade exception which I am anxious to see how he is going to use it for.

I hear that.  And that's always a possibility, I guess.  Rondo could be our PIerce.  Once we bottom out this year, our Top 8 pick will probably be worth an aging star.  Are there any all-stars in their early 30s?

Memphis seems like the sort of team that might trade early-30s All-Star Zach Randolph for Sullinger and draft picks in an attempt to get younger and cheaper.

[D.o.s.]

Boston, meanwhile, is at least a half decade away from sniffing the playoffs. 

  There's no real reason to think that this is true. There are way too many unknowns (including what they're going to do with the plethora of first rounders in the near future) to have any idea what the team will look like in a year or two.

+1, see 2007...one year we have the worst record in the league, next year we won the championship...

not saying this is the same, but my point is, Danny won't just sit back and see players develop and play our way into the playoffs. He is going to develop them, and trade them for more assets to get us there faster. Waiting for players to develop just to even make playoffs is painful and 5 years is a very long time, if by then he still keeps his job. He is probably going to trade a player or even a lot of players to get someone back within the next year or 2. Besides those first rounders, we also have that 10 mil trade exception which I am anxious to see how he is going to use it for.

I hear that.  And that's always a possibility, I guess.  Rondo could be our PIerce.  Once we bottom out this year, our Top 8 pick will probably be worth an aging star.  Are there any all-stars in their early 30s?

Memphis seems like the sort of team that might trade early-30s All-Star Zach Randolph for Sullinger and draft picks in an attempt to get younger and cheaper.

Which begs the question, who will put in a better Poor Man's ZBo this year, Randolph or Sullinger?

[BballTim]

Boston, meanwhile, is at least a half decade away from sniffing the playoffs. 

  There's no real reason to think that this is true. There are way too many unknowns (including what they're going to do with the plethora of first rounders in the near future) to have any idea what the team will look like in a year or two.

+1, see 2007...one year we have the worst record in the league, next year we won the championship...

not saying this is the same, but my point is, Danny won't just sit back and see players develop and play our way into the playoffs. He is going to develop them, and trade them for more assets to get us there faster. Waiting for players to develop just to even make playoffs is painful and 5 years is a very long time, if by then he still keeps his job. He is probably going to trade a player or even a lot of players to get someone back within the next year or 2. Besides those first rounders, we also have that 10 mil trade exception which I am anxious to see how he is going to use it for.

I hear that.  And that's always a possibility, I guess.  Rondo could be our PIerce.  Once we bottom out this year, our Top 8 pick will probably be worth an aging star.  Are there any all-stars in their early 30s?

Unfortunately, there is no prospect on this team anywhere near the potential of Big Al in 2007.  And there's no aging superstar like KEvin Garnett available on the market.   Say you dump our top 8 pick for a 31 year old allstar like David Lee... and say it was at all possible to trade Sully + Oly + Bradley + multiple 1sts for 32 year old Dwayne Wade.    Yeah, I guess Wade, Rondo and Lee could make the playoffs.  Obviously that isn't happening, though.

I'm operating under the assumption this team is going to be build on guys who haven't even been drafted yet.  Even if we landed Wiggins in the draft... judging by how long it took Durant and LeBron, that probably means Boston isn't a playoff team until the 2016-17 season... and isn't a contender until the 2018-19 season. 

We already did the 3 year window thing.  It was fun... for 3 years.  It's not sustainable.  I think the plan now is to actually build the right way... draft young stars and build a foundation that lasts over a decade.  That process takes time.  We'll be garbage for a couple seasons at least.  It will take at least 5 for us to be a championship contender.  If you haven't done it yet, now would be a wonderful time to start having babies.  If you time it just right, you'll be able to enjoy Celtics games with your Children in 5-10 years when this team matters again.

  First of all, the next rebuild doesn't have to be identical to the last one. Secondly, the fact that you don't currently know of any star players that will be available in trades in the next couple of years obviously doesn't imply that *none* will be available. Thirdly, while it's possible that Danny's willing to be bad for an extended period of time while he drafts and develops talent it's a completely different approach than he's ever took in the past.

[LarBrd33]

Boston, meanwhile, is at least a half decade away from sniffing the playoffs. 

  There's no real reason to think that this is true. There are way too many unknowns (including what they're going to do with the plethora of first rounders in the near future) to have any idea what the team will look like in a year or two.

+1, see 2007...one year we have the worst record in the league, next year we won the championship...

not saying this is the same, but my point is, Danny won't just sit back and see players develop and play our way into the playoffs. He is going to develop them, and trade them for more assets to get us there faster. Waiting for players to develop just to even make playoffs is painful and 5 years is a very long time, if by then he still keeps his job. He is probably going to trade a player or even a lot of players to get someone back within the next year or 2. Besides those first rounders, we also have that 10 mil trade exception which I am anxious to see how he is going to use it for.

I hear that.  And that's always a possibility, I guess.  Rondo could be our PIerce.  Once we bottom out this year, our Top 8 pick will probably be worth an aging star.  Are there any all-stars in their early 30s?

Unfortunately, there is no prospect on this team anywhere near the potential of Big Al in 2007.  And there's no aging superstar like KEvin Garnett available on the market.   Say you dump our top 8 pick for a 31 year old allstar like David Lee... and say it was at all possible to trade Sully + Oly + Bradley + multiple 1sts for 32 year old Dwayne Wade.    Yeah, I guess Wade, Rondo and Lee could make the playoffs.  Obviously that isn't happening, though.

I'm operating under the assumption this team is going to be build on guys who haven't even been drafted yet.  Even if we landed Wiggins in the draft... judging by how long it took Durant and LeBron, that probably means Boston isn't a playoff team until the 2016-17 season... and isn't a contender until the 2018-19 season. 

We already did the 3 year window thing.  It was fun... for 3 years.  It's not sustainable.  I think the plan now is to actually build the right way... draft young stars and build a foundation that lasts over a decade.  That process takes time.  We'll be garbage for a couple seasons at least.  It will take at least 5 for us to be a championship contender.  If you haven't done it yet, now would be a wonderful time to start having babies.  If you time it just right, you'll be able to enjoy Celtics games with your Children in 5-10 years when this team matters again.

  First of all, the next rebuild doesn't have to be identical to the last one. Secondly, the fact that you don't currently know of any star players that will be available in trades in the next couple of years obviously doesn't imply that *none* will be available. Thirdly, while it's possible that Danny's willing to be bad for an extended period of time while he drafts and develops talent it's a completely different approach than he's ever took in the past.

Collecting young assets and draft picks is not a new approach for Danny Ainge.  He dumped Walker his first year despite the fact Walker was an all-star.  He saw a team that couldn't contend for a title... and spent several years collecting pieces that would either develop into cornerstones or be used to trade for quality talent.

It's going to take time.  We barely have lotto talent on this team.  We have three young players (Bradley, Sully, Oly) and none of them really hold much value at this point.  This process will take years.

[BballTim]

Boston, meanwhile, is at least a half decade away from sniffing the playoffs. 

  There's no real reason to think that this is true. There are way too many unknowns (including what they're going to do with the plethora of first rounders in the near future) to have any idea what the team will look like in a year or two.

+1, see 2007...one year we have the worst record in the league, next year we won the championship...

not saying this is the same, but my point is, Danny won't just sit back and see players develop and play our way into the playoffs. He is going to develop them, and trade them for more assets to get us there faster. Waiting for players to develop just to even make playoffs is painful and 5 years is a very long time, if by then he still keeps his job. He is probably going to trade a player or even a lot of players to get someone back within the next year or 2. Besides those first rounders, we also have that 10 mil trade exception which I am anxious to see how he is going to use it for.

I hear that.  And that's always a possibility, I guess.  Rondo could be our PIerce.  Once we bottom out this year, our Top 8 pick will probably be worth an aging star.  Are there any all-stars in their early 30s?

Unfortunately, there is no prospect on this team anywhere near the potential of Big Al in 2007.  And there's no aging superstar like KEvin Garnett available on the market.   Say you dump our top 8 pick for a 31 year old allstar like David Lee... and say it was at all possible to trade Sully + Oly + Bradley + multiple 1sts for 32 year old Dwayne Wade.    Yeah, I guess Wade, Rondo and Lee could make the playoffs.  Obviously that isn't happening, though.

I'm operating under the assumption this team is going to be build on guys who haven't even been drafted yet.  Even if we landed Wiggins in the draft... judging by how long it took Durant and LeBron, that probably means Boston isn't a playoff team until the 2016-17 season... and isn't a contender until the 2018-19 season. 

We already did the 3 year window thing.  It was fun... for 3 years.  It's not sustainable.  I think the plan now is to actually build the right way... draft young stars and build a foundation that lasts over a decade.  That process takes time.  We'll be garbage for a couple seasons at least.  It will take at least 5 for us to be a championship contender.  If you haven't done it yet, now would be a wonderful time to start having babies.  If you time it just right, you'll be able to enjoy Celtics games with your Children in 5-10 years when this team matters again.

  First of all, the next rebuild doesn't have to be identical to the last one. Secondly, the fact that you don't currently know of any star players that will be available in trades in the next couple of years obviously doesn't imply that *none* will be available. Thirdly, while it's possible that Danny's willing to be bad for an extended period of time while he drafts and develops talent it's a completely different approach than he's ever took in the past.

Collecting young assets and draft picks is not a new approach for Danny Ainge.  He dumped Walker his first year despite the fact Walker was an all-star.  He saw a team that couldn't contend for a title... and spent several years collecting pieces that would either develop into cornerstones or be used to trade for quality talent.

It's going to take time.  We barely have lotto talent on this team.  We have three young players (Bradley, Sully, Oly) and none of them really hold much value at this point.  This process will take years.

  He traded Walker for a player who he was hoping would be a solid player for the Celts for years to come. He made the playoffs his first few years running the club in spite of the fact that he was turning over the roster and collecting those assets. His one year of tanking came about because his best player missed an extended portion of the season with an injury. He came into a team with the realization that they weren't contenders and made a serious effort to remain competitive during the rebuild. Nothing he's done since he came to the Celts would suggest that he's planning on being bad for an extended period of time.

[PhoSita]

We already did the 3 year window thing.  It was fun... for 3 years.  It's not sustainable.  I think the plan now is to actually build the right way...

I'd say that the vast majority of teams rebuilding the "right way" for lack of any better options would love to have a 3 year window of relevance that results in 1 championship, a second Finals appearance, and a 7 game ECF appearance.

I'm perfectly happy with Ainge's decision to go for a 3 year window plan last time around.  I just don't think you can have that sort of outcome as your primary objective because it's just not likely that you'll have the chance to take advantage of circumstances the way that Ainge did in 07.

[bobbyv]

Lots of teams have fine point guards already.  Lotto teams likely don't want to build around Rondo... so the idea that they'll give up significant young prospects for him doesn't make sense.   The teams that will want a guy like Rondo are teams that #1 - are close to contention and #2 - actually have use for a quarterback.   That rules out a ton of teams.

So, a fringe playoff team with a PG who is inferior to Rondo?

Maybe the Toronto's front office wants to clear out the old regime's free agent mistakes and offer DeMar DeRozan, Kyle Lowry, Landry Fields and draft picks for Rondo, Bradley, and Wallace.  Or Portland, desperate to keep Lamarcus Aldridge offers a pupu platter of guys like Meyers Leonard and Thomas Robinson as well as a pick or two in the hopes of going with a three-guard rotation of Rondo, Lillard, and Matthews.

Possibly a fringe playoff team.  I think you're more likely to see a fringe contender go after him... a team that is almost on the verge of championship contention.  So a team like Memphis, Indiana or Rockets.    Those teams are in the race, but probably aren't winning anything.  Memphis is probably content with Conley.  I could see the Rockets or Indiana going for it, though.  If you replace Jeremy Lin with Rondo, how much better does that team become? If you replace George Hill with Rondo, can the Pacers take out the Bulls/Heat?   

If Toronto traded DeMar DeRozan, Kyle Lowry, Landry Fields for Rajon Rondo.... they wouldn't be a contender.  They probably would be worse, actually.

I'd say the Pacers would get through the Bulls and the Heat with ease if they had Rondo. Size and PG play is Miami's weakness, and Bulls will struggle scoring if they can't get through the Pacers D, which would only be improved with Playoff Rondo.

[PhoSita]

Lots of teams have fine point guards already.  Lotto teams likely don't want to build around Rondo... so the idea that they'll give up significant young prospects for him doesn't make sense.   The teams that will want a guy like Rondo are teams that #1 - are close to contention and #2 - actually have use for a quarterback.   That rules out a ton of teams.

So, a fringe playoff team with a PG who is inferior to Rondo?

Maybe the Toronto's front office wants to clear out the old regime's free agent mistakes and offer DeMar DeRozan, Kyle Lowry, Landry Fields and draft picks for Rondo, Bradley, and Wallace.  Or Portland, desperate to keep Lamarcus Aldridge offers a pupu platter of guys like Meyers Leonard and Thomas Robinson as well as a pick or two in the hopes of going with a three-guard rotation of Rondo, Lillard, and Matthews.

Possibly a fringe playoff team.  I think you're more likely to see a fringe contender go after him... a team that is almost on the verge of championship contention.  So a team like Memphis, Indiana or Rockets.    Those teams are in the race, but probably aren't winning anything.  Memphis is probably content with Conley.  I could see the Rockets or Indiana going for it, though.  If you replace Jeremy Lin with Rondo, how much better does that team become? If you replace George Hill with Rondo, can the Pacers take out the Bulls/Heat?   

If Toronto traded DeMar DeRozan, Kyle Lowry, Landry Fields for Rajon Rondo.... they wouldn't be a contender.  They probably would be worse, actually.

I'd say the Pacers would get through the Bulls and the Heat with ease if they had Rondo. Size and PG play is Miami's weakness, and Bulls will struggle scoring if they can't get through the Pacers D, which would only be improved with Playoff Rondo.

No team is getting through Miami "with ease."

[BballTim]

We already did the 3 year window thing.  It was fun... for 3 years.  It's not sustainable.  I think the plan now is to actually build the right way...

I'd say that the vast majority of teams rebuilding the "right way" for lack of any better options would love to have a 3 year window of relevance that results in 1 championship, a second Finals appearance, and a 7 game ECF appearance.

I'm perfectly happy with Ainge's decision to go for a 3 year window plan last time around.  I just don't think you can have that sort of outcome as your primary objective because it's just not likely that you'll have the chance to take advantage of circumstances the way that Ainge did in 07.

  Don't forget, they got within a game of the finals in year 5 of the "three year window". Also, building "the right way" probably fails about 95% of the time if you're trying to win a title.

[PhoSita]

We already did the 3 year window thing.  It was fun... for 3 years.  It's not sustainable.  I think the plan now is to actually build the right way...

I'd say that the vast majority of teams rebuilding the "right way" for lack of any better options would love to have a 3 year window of relevance that results in 1 championship, a second Finals appearance, and a 7 game ECF appearance.

I'm perfectly happy with Ainge's decision to go for a 3 year window plan last time around.  I just don't think you can have that sort of outcome as your primary objective because it's just not likely that you'll have the chance to take advantage of circumstances the way that Ainge did in 07.

  Don't forget, they got within a game of the finals in year 5 of the "three year window". Also, building "the right way" probably fails about 95% of the time if you're trying to win a title.

Indeed, despite all of the "bad luck" that the Celtics had with injuries to KG and Perk, they got a lot more out of that group than I think was reasonable to expect when the Big 3 first game together back in the summer of 07.  It was a great run.

Still, even though rebuilding the "right way" has a low success rate, that low success rate is probably higher than the chances of a situation like that one Ainge took advantage of in 2007 presenting itself again and resulting in an immediate championship. 

If Ainge sees a chance to turn a pu pu platter of young assets into a handful of veteran stars, he should absolutely do it, but I'd be really amazed if that happens again.

[BballTim]

We already did the 3 year window thing.  It was fun... for 3 years.  It's not sustainable.  I think the plan now is to actually build the right way...

I'd say that the vast majority of teams rebuilding the "right way" for lack of any better options would love to have a 3 year window of relevance that results in 1 championship, a second Finals appearance, and a 7 game ECF appearance.

I'm perfectly happy with Ainge's decision to go for a 3 year window plan last time around.  I just don't think you can have that sort of outcome as your primary objective because it's just not likely that you'll have the chance to take advantage of circumstances the way that Ainge did in 07.

  Don't forget, they got within a game of the finals in year 5 of the "three year window". Also, building "the right way" probably fails about 95% of the time if you're trying to win a title.

Indeed, despite all of the "bad luck" that the Celtics had with injuries to KG and Perk, they got a lot more out of that group than I think was reasonable to expect when the Big 3 first game together back in the summer of 07.  It was a great run.

  It was a great run, but I thought the "three year" thing was based more on people repeating what others were saying than anything else.

Still, even though rebuilding the "right way" has a low success rate, that low success rate is probably higher than the chances of a situation like that one Ainge took advantage of in 2007 presenting itself again and resulting in an immediate championship. 

  These discussions all revolve around semantics and reading tea leaves. Talk about needing a top draft pick that you selected as part of your core because most champions have that and it's almost an imperative that the Celts tank. Change that to having a star player that the team drafted and suddenly the Celts are all set, adding to him through trades and FA signings would make the team a pretty typical contender.

[PhoSita]

We already did the 3 year window thing.  It was fun... for 3 years.  It's not sustainable.  I think the plan now is to actually build the right way...

I'd say that the vast majority of teams rebuilding the "right way" for lack of any better options would love to have a 3 year window of relevance that results in 1 championship, a second Finals appearance, and a 7 game ECF appearance.

I'm perfectly happy with Ainge's decision to go for a 3 year window plan last time around.  I just don't think you can have that sort of outcome as your primary objective because it's just not likely that you'll have the chance to take advantage of circumstances the way that Ainge did in 07.

  Don't forget, they got within a game of the finals in year 5 of the "three year window". Also, building "the right way" probably fails about 95% of the time if you're trying to win a title.

Indeed, despite all of the "bad luck" that the Celtics had with injuries to KG and Perk, they got a lot more out of that group than I think was reasonable to expect when the Big 3 first game together back in the summer of 07.  It was a great run.

  It was a great run, but I thought the "three year" thing was based more on people repeating what others were saying than anything else.

Still, even though rebuilding the "right way" has a low success rate, that low success rate is probably higher than the chances of a situation like that one Ainge took advantage of in 2007 presenting itself again and resulting in an immediate championship. 

  These discussions all revolve around semantics and reading tea leaves. Talk about needing a top draft pick that you selected as part of your core because most champions have that and it's almost an imperative that the Celts tank. Change that to having a star player that the team drafted and suddenly the Celts are all set, adding to him through trades and FA signings would make the team a pretty typical contender.

As I've said elsewhere, and as I think Eric Weiss and/or Kevin Connor put quite well on the front page recently, I view top pick prospects as investment assets.  If you're trying to increase your wealth, it becomes much easier to do that when you have significant capital to start with.  Substantial individual assets.  I think that's why you prioritize high draft picks -- not because it necessarily means you'll get a franchise star, but because higher draft picks make so many other moves possible.