Said this in another thread (even debated triboy16f about it, so I know he/she will disagree 
)
Most rookie big men don't average double digit points their rookie years.
Actually it goes way beyond that.
The only NBA player to meet or beat triboy16f's Olynyk predictions in every category last year was Kevin Durant.
The optimism around here amazes me.
Anyway I've gone on enough about this in other threads, I'm not going to do it now since we have about eight different prediction threads going at once.
A quick reminder though, if you want to take your predictions (or anyone else's) and see who among actual NBA players was comparable to them last year, you can do it here:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/psl_finder.cgi
what are you talking about?? Did i say Olynyk will score 25 and rebound 10 a game??
But i did say he will avg 10 points or more in his rookie year. Some factors why imo
- highest NCAA PER and third highest FG per stats last year
- Inside/Outside game
- High IQ/Motor
- 7 ft tall with mobility and above avg strength for 1st year rookie
- top three player of SL
What am I talking about? Here are your predictions, they are right in this thread:
16 pts, 7 reb, 2 assist, 1 block and 1 stl avg
Shooting over 50 fg and close to 80 ft percentages
First all rookie team and roy winner
So, all I did is see how many players matched or beat those numbers in all categories. The only one from last year is Durant. You can look it up if you want to.
If you want to know what player was *closest* to your predictions, I think it might be Chris Bosh. He averaged 16.6/6.8/1.5/0.9/1.4 with pretty close to 50/80 shooting. I looked that up too.
So do you think Olynyk will match Chris Bosh's 2013 production? Or KG's? He averaged 14.8/7.8/2.3/1.1/0.9 on pretty close to 50/80.
optimistically yes. Your examples are not the best. Good job using one overpaid superstar wannabe and respect to kg but older/injured guy to try to get your point across
1) Bosh is an underachiever. A guy who makes 20 million a year does 14.8/7.8 is kind of pathetic isn't it??
2) KG had his worse year as a celtic last year. Plus he was prob playing at 80 percent due to his age/injuries. You think kg of 2008 pulls those kind of number??
So yeah, Olynyk can at peak do what these guys did last year(off year). Realistically he is 12-16pts and 6-8reb , 1-2 assist and not 6 pts, 3 rebounds shooting at 40 fg per avg. That is crazy underrating. It must be a joke post
If you don't like my examples, feel free to pick your own.
If you want to focus on rookies, I will just tell you that since 1979 the total number of rookies who have averaged 16/7/2/1/1 or better is six. That is six total in 34 years.
Here is the list:
David Robinson
Chris Webber
Patrick Ewing
Christian Laettner
Lamar Odom
Lionel Simmons
Of those players, none hit your projections of close to 50/80 shooting.
In other words exactly zero rookies in the shot clock era have hit the numbers in all categories that you are projecting for Olynyk.
Even if you pick significantly more modest numbers there are very few rookies who put together the kind of balanced stat line you are projecting, particularly shooting so efficiently.
It's curious, given those facts, that you call your own projections "realistic" while calling the projections of others "crazy."
Anyway, if those are your projections, that's cool, we all hope that KO turns out to be a great player. But it's useful to have some perspective.
Topic: Kelly Olynyk 2013-2014 predictions. (Read 45192 times)