The prime years of elite NBA point guards.

[Celtics18]

I'm kind of tired of people thinking the guy is going to get very much better as a shooter. This has been posted for 6 straight years here. Doesn't happen. There was a reasonable improvement a few years back, however it only put him to the level of "tolerable". He hasn't progressed past that for the past couple years. He is as good a shooter as he ever will be. Other than the jump in FG% from his rookie season, he has shot about the same. Going into his 8th season, he isn't going to magically change his ability to shoot. He is what he is.

http://www.hoopdata.com/shotstats.aspx?team=%&type=pg&posi=%&yr=2013&gp2=0&mins=25

Last year, he was one of the best mid-range jump shooters in the league. 

[Boris Badenov]

I'm kind of tired of people thinking the guy is going to get very much better as a shooter. This has been posted for 6 straight years here. Doesn't happen. There was a reasonable improvement a few years back, however it only put him to the level of "tolerable". He hasn't progressed past that for the past couple years. He is as good a shooter as he ever will be. Other than the jump in FG% from his rookie season, he has shot about the same. Going into his 8th season, he isn't going to magically change his ability to shoot. He is what he is.

http://www.hoopdata.com/shotstats.aspx?team=%&type=pg&posi=%&yr=2013&gp2=0&mins=25

Last year, he was one of the best mid-range jump shooters in the league.

You know what's weird? In the same category I think you're talking about (16-23 ft), Bradley rates out as very good too - about as good as Lillard, Conley, Tony Parker etc.

It was actually shots at the basket that killed AB's shooting effectiveness, more so than his mid-range game. His poor 3pt shooting is well-known of course, and that also mattered, but I hadn't realized what the rest of the picture looked like.

I'm sure others have pointed this out, but it's the first time I noticed it.

[LooseCannon]

You know what's weird? In the same category I think you're talking about (16-23 ft), Bradley rates out as very good too - about as good as Lillard, Conley, Tony Parker etc.

It was actually shots at the basket that killed AB's shooting effectiveness, more so than his mid-range game. His poor 3pt shooting is well-known of course, and that also mattered, but I hadn't realized what the rest of the picture looked like.

I'm sure others have pointed this out, but it's the first time I noticed it.

It's one of the reasons I speculate that a healthy Bradley can surprise people offensively.  Last season, his lack of upper body strength due to recovering from shoulder injuries was cited as a reason for his decreased ability to finish.  If he gets that back and pairs his ability shoot twos from last season with his ability to shoot threes from two seasons ago, while he will never be a go-to iso-ball scorer, he can be an All-Defensive-level guard who is above-average at catch-and-shoot situations.

[BballTim]

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/f/francst01.html
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/m/marbust01.html
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/a/architi01.html
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/w/willija02.html
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/s/stoudda01.html
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/s/smithke01.html
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/c/claxtsp01.html


It turns out that it's pretty easy to do this cherry-picking thing in the other direction, too.

Rondo could potentially increase his production as he gets older if he can add an outside shot and compensate in other ways for his gradual decline in speed and athleticism.

Or, he could decline rather rapidly after he turns 27-28 and be a limited role player before he reaches 35.

  I'm guessing you have a very different idea of what constitutes an elite pg than most people.

That was what I was thinking, but guys like Kevin Johnson and Penny Hardaway got hurt right around year 7/8 and were never the same.  I think that is a very real possibility with Rondo.  Tiny Archibald tailed off dramatically after his 7th year.  Isiah played 13 seasons, the last 6 he was never even at his career average in points and only eclipsed the assist career average once.  He went downhill pretty dramatically after his 7th year and was retired at 32.  Kevin Porter (who led the league in assists 4 times) was basically toast after his 7th year and retired at 32. 

  One can only hope that the surgical technique that was used on Rondo was quite a bit more modern than what was used on those guys. Same with the rehab.

[BballTim]

I'm kind of tired of people thinking the guy is going to get very much better as a shooter. This has been posted for 6 straight years here. Doesn't happen. There was a reasonable improvement a few years back, however it only put him to the level of "tolerable". He hasn't progressed past that for the past couple years. He is as good a shooter as he ever will be. Other than the jump in FG% from his rookie season, he has shot about the same. Going into his 8th season, he isn't going to magically change his ability to shoot. He is what he is.

  There were less than 10 players in the league who play more than 20 minutes a game that shot better from 15-23 feet than Rondo did last year. What he did last year is pretty much good enough.

[PhoSita]

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/f/francst01.html
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/m/marbust01.html
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/a/architi01.html
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/w/willija02.html
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/s/stoudda01.html
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/s/smithke01.html
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/c/claxtsp01.html


It turns out that it's pretty easy to do this cherry-picking thing in the other direction, too.

Rondo could potentially increase his production as he gets older if he can add an outside shot and compensate in other ways for his gradual decline in speed and athleticism.

Or, he could decline rather rapidly after he turns 27-28 and be a limited role player before he reaches 35.

  I'm guessing you have a very different idea of what constitutes an elite pg than most people.

Or perhaps if we're defining "elite pg" by a grouping of Nash, Kidd, Stockton, etc, I don't really think that Rondo belongs.

I think Rondo is pretty clearly better than Speedy Claxton or Damon Stoudamire, but I wouldn't put him on the same level as the guys the OP mentioned.

Rather, I think Rondo's value is probably closer to a guy like Andre Miller.

[Chris]

I'm kind of tired of people thinking the guy is going to get very much better as a shooter. This has been posted for 6 straight years here. Doesn't happen. There was a reasonable improvement a few years back, however it only put him to the level of "tolerable". He hasn't progressed past that for the past couple years. He is as good a shooter as he ever will be. Other than the jump in FG% from his rookie season, he has shot about the same. Going into his 8th season, he isn't going to magically change his ability to shoot. He is what he is.

  There were less than 10 players in the league who play more than 20 minutes a game that shot better from 15-23 feet than Rondo did last year. What he did last year is pretty much good enough.

Yes, how he shot last year was good enough.  The question is whether he can continue to shoot that well, or close to it, if he is taking more shots (which he will likely have to do this year), and perhaps with closer coverage, as he won't have guys like Pierce and KG keeping the defenses attention from him. 

It will be interesting to see.  This is Rondo's chance to prove all the doubters wrong, and answer some of these questions.

[PhoSita]

I'm kind of tired of people thinking the guy is going to get very much better as a shooter. This has been posted for 6 straight years here. Doesn't happen. There was a reasonable improvement a few years back, however it only put him to the level of "tolerable". He hasn't progressed past that for the past couple years. He is as good a shooter as he ever will be. Other than the jump in FG% from his rookie season, he has shot about the same. Going into his 8th season, he isn't going to magically change his ability to shoot. He is what he is.

  There were less than 10 players in the league who play more than 20 minutes a game that shot better from 15-23 feet than Rondo did last year. What he did last year is pretty much good enough.

Yes, how he shot last year was good enough.  The question is whether he can continue to shoot that well, or close to it, if he is taking more shots (which he will likely have to do this year), and perhaps with closer coverage, as he won't have guys like Pierce and KG keeping the defenses attention from him. 

It will be interesting to see.  This is Rondo's chance to prove all the doubters wrong, and answer some of these questions.

Indeed.  Hitting a nice percentage when you're largely left open and you have plenty of time to think about taking the shot is one thing.

Hitting a high percentage when you're coming off screens and pin-downs and pulling up against tight coverage is decidedly another.

Scoring this year is going to be more difficult for everybody on the team -- though Rondo and Green especially -- now that Pierce and Garnett are gone.

[Moranis]

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/f/francst01.html
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/m/marbust01.html
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/a/architi01.html
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/w/willija02.html
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/s/stoudda01.html
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/s/smithke01.html
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/c/claxtsp01.html


It turns out that it's pretty easy to do this cherry-picking thing in the other direction, too.

Rondo could potentially increase his production as he gets older if he can add an outside shot and compensate in other ways for his gradual decline in speed and athleticism.

Or, he could decline rather rapidly after he turns 27-28 and be a limited role player before he reaches 35.

  I'm guessing you have a very different idea of what constitutes an elite pg than most people.

That was what I was thinking, but guys like Kevin Johnson and Penny Hardaway got hurt right around year 7/8 and were never the same.  I think that is a very real possibility with Rondo.  Tiny Archibald tailed off dramatically after his 7th year.  Isiah played 13 seasons, the last 6 he was never even at his career average in points and only eclipsed the assist career average once.  He went downhill pretty dramatically after his 7th year and was retired at 32.  Kevin Porter (who led the league in assists 4 times) was basically toast after his 7th year and retired at 32. 

  One can only hope that the surgical technique that was used on Rondo was quite a bit more modern than what was used on those guys. Same with the rehab.

Isiah was never injured.  Kevin Porter wasn't injured either. 

Tim Hardaway had a noticeable decline right around year 7 as well.  Kenny Anderson dropped off a great deal (though he had injuries).  Nick Van Exel.  Mike Bibby peaked in year 8 and then dramatically fell off.

There are plenty of examples of top tier PG's whose first 7 years were significantly better than the remainder of their careers.

[Chris]

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/f/francst01.html
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/m/marbust01.html
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/a/architi01.html
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/w/willija02.html
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/s/stoudda01.html
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/s/smithke01.html
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/c/claxtsp01.html


It turns out that it's pretty easy to do this cherry-picking thing in the other direction, too.

Rondo could potentially increase his production as he gets older if he can add an outside shot and compensate in other ways for his gradual decline in speed and athleticism.

Or, he could decline rather rapidly after he turns 27-28 and be a limited role player before he reaches 35.

  I'm guessing you have a very different idea of what constitutes an elite pg than most people.

That was what I was thinking, but guys like Kevin Johnson and Penny Hardaway got hurt right around year 7/8 and were never the same.  I think that is a very real possibility with Rondo.  Tiny Archibald tailed off dramatically after his 7th year.  Isiah played 13 seasons, the last 6 he was never even at his career average in points and only eclipsed the assist career average once.  He went downhill pretty dramatically after his 7th year and was retired at 32.  Kevin Porter (who led the league in assists 4 times) was basically toast after his 7th year and retired at 32. 

  One can only hope that the surgical technique that was used on Rondo was quite a bit more modern than what was used on those guys. Same with the rehab.

Isiah was never injured.  Kevin Porter wasn't injured either. 

Tim Hardaway had a noticeable decline right around year 7 as well.  Kenny Anderson dropped off a great deal (though he had injuries).  Nick Van Exel.  Mike Bibby peaked in year 8 and then dramatically fell off.

There are plenty of examples of top tier PG's whose first 7 years were significantly better than the remainder of their careers.

Right.  Which is why it's so hard to make these predictions.  There are so many variables, and Rondo is just such a unique player anyways.  While it can be a fun exercise to discuss this stuff, ultimately, no one really has any clue what will happen, and both sides have very strong arguments.

[PhoSita]

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/f/francst01.html
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/m/marbust01.html
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/a/architi01.html
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/w/willija02.html
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/s/stoudda01.html
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/s/smithke01.html
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/c/claxtsp01.html


It turns out that it's pretty easy to do this cherry-picking thing in the other direction, too.

Rondo could potentially increase his production as he gets older if he can add an outside shot and compensate in other ways for his gradual decline in speed and athleticism.

Or, he could decline rather rapidly after he turns 27-28 and be a limited role player before he reaches 35.

  I'm guessing you have a very different idea of what constitutes an elite pg than most people.

That was what I was thinking, but guys like Kevin Johnson and Penny Hardaway got hurt right around year 7/8 and were never the same.  I think that is a very real possibility with Rondo.  Tiny Archibald tailed off dramatically after his 7th year.  Isiah played 13 seasons, the last 6 he was never even at his career average in points and only eclipsed the assist career average once.  He went downhill pretty dramatically after his 7th year and was retired at 32.  Kevin Porter (who led the league in assists 4 times) was basically toast after his 7th year and retired at 32. 

  One can only hope that the surgical technique that was used on Rondo was quite a bit more modern than what was used on those guys. Same with the rehab.

Isiah was never injured.  Kevin Porter wasn't injured either. 

Tim Hardaway had a noticeable decline right around year 7 as well.  Kenny Anderson dropped off a great deal (though he had injuries).  Nick Van Exel.  Mike Bibby peaked in year 8 and then dramatically fell off.

There are plenty of examples of top tier PG's whose first 7 years were significantly better than the remainder of their careers.

Another Porter -- Terry Porter -- is an example of a player whose career lasted a long time but who declined pretty quickly once he turned 30 and was just a role player for the last decade or so of his career.

[Celtics18]

I'm kind of tired of people thinking the guy is going to get very much better as a shooter. This has been posted for 6 straight years here. Doesn't happen. There was a reasonable improvement a few years back, however it only put him to the level of "tolerable". He hasn't progressed past that for the past couple years. He is as good a shooter as he ever will be. Other than the jump in FG% from his rookie season, he has shot about the same. Going into his 8th season, he isn't going to magically change his ability to shoot. He is what he is.

  There were less than 10 players in the league who play more than 20 minutes a game that shot better from 15-23 feet than Rondo did last year. What he did last year is pretty much good enough.

Yes, how he shot last year was good enough.  The question is whether he can continue to shoot that well, or close to it, if he is taking more shots (which he will likely have to do this year), and perhaps with closer coverage, as he won't have guys like Pierce and KG keeping the defenses attention from him. 

It will be interesting to see.  This is Rondo's chance to prove all the doubters wrong, and answer some of these questions.

Indeed.  Hitting a nice percentage when you're largely left open and you have plenty of time to think about taking the shot is one thing.

Hitting a high percentage when you're coming off screens and pin-downs and pulling up against tight coverage is decidedly another.

Scoring this year is going to be more difficult for everybody on the team -- though Rondo and Green especially -- now that Pierce and Garnett are gone.

Despite his improved jump shot, I don't see Rondo coming off a lot of screens and pin downs and being a catch and shoot player. 

As far as pulling up against tight coverage goes, I'm guessing Rondo will still get plenty of opportunities to pull up for open jumpers.  Defenses don't guard someone like Rondo extremely closely when he has the ball in his hands on the perimeter.  It's not because (and never has been) they are off double teaming other guys, it's because they are backing off to try to stop him getting in the lane.  My guess is that defenses continue to try to guard against him getting in the lane, thus giving him plenty of opportunities for open pull up, mid range jump shots. 

[BballTim]

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/f/francst01.html
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/m/marbust01.html
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/a/architi01.html
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/w/willija02.html
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/s/stoudda01.html
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/s/smithke01.html
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/c/claxtsp01.html


It turns out that it's pretty easy to do this cherry-picking thing in the other direction, too.

Rondo could potentially increase his production as he gets older if he can add an outside shot and compensate in other ways for his gradual decline in speed and athleticism.

Or, he could decline rather rapidly after he turns 27-28 and be a limited role player before he reaches 35.

  I'm guessing you have a very different idea of what constitutes an elite pg than most people.

That was what I was thinking, but guys like Kevin Johnson and Penny Hardaway got hurt right around year 7/8 and were never the same.  I think that is a very real possibility with Rondo.  Tiny Archibald tailed off dramatically after his 7th year.  Isiah played 13 seasons, the last 6 he was never even at his career average in points and only eclipsed the assist career average once.  He went downhill pretty dramatically after his 7th year and was retired at 32.  Kevin Porter (who led the league in assists 4 times) was basically toast after his 7th year and retired at 32. 

  One can only hope that the surgical technique that was used on Rondo was quite a bit more modern than what was used on those guys. Same with the rehab.

Isiah was never injured.  Kevin Porter wasn't injured either. 

Tim Hardaway had a noticeable decline right around year 7 as well.  Kenny Anderson dropped off a great deal (though he had injuries).  Nick Van Exel.  Mike Bibby peaked in year 8 and then dramatically fell off.

There are plenty of examples of top tier PG's whose first 7 years were significantly better than the remainder of their careers.

  Did you see Isiah play at all? He never suffered a major injury that kept him out of the lineup for long but the downturn in his career was due to his body breaking down due to the injuries he suffered as a player. I don't think Tim Hardaway was as free from injury as you think he was either.

[Chris]

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/f/francst01.html
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/m/marbust01.html
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/a/architi01.html
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/w/willija02.html
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/s/stoudda01.html
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/s/smithke01.html
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/c/claxtsp01.html


It turns out that it's pretty easy to do this cherry-picking thing in the other direction, too.

Rondo could potentially increase his production as he gets older if he can add an outside shot and compensate in other ways for his gradual decline in speed and athleticism.

Or, he could decline rather rapidly after he turns 27-28 and be a limited role player before he reaches 35.

  I'm guessing you have a very different idea of what constitutes an elite pg than most people.

That was what I was thinking, but guys like Kevin Johnson and Penny Hardaway got hurt right around year 7/8 and were never the same.  I think that is a very real possibility with Rondo.  Tiny Archibald tailed off dramatically after his 7th year.  Isiah played 13 seasons, the last 6 he was never even at his career average in points and only eclipsed the assist career average once.  He went downhill pretty dramatically after his 7th year and was retired at 32.  Kevin Porter (who led the league in assists 4 times) was basically toast after his 7th year and retired at 32. 

  One can only hope that the surgical technique that was used on Rondo was quite a bit more modern than what was used on those guys. Same with the rehab.

Isiah was never injured.  Kevin Porter wasn't injured either. 

Tim Hardaway had a noticeable decline right around year 7 as well.  Kenny Anderson dropped off a great deal (though he had injuries).  Nick Van Exel.  Mike Bibby peaked in year 8 and then dramatically fell off.

There are plenty of examples of top tier PG's whose first 7 years were significantly better than the remainder of their careers.

  Did you see Isiah play at all? He never suffered a major injury that kept him out of the lineup for long but the downturn in his career was due to his body breaking down due to the injuries he suffered as a player. I don't think Tim Hardaway was as free from injury as you think he was either.

Right, and the same wear and tear that deteriorated Isiah could very well hurt Rondo.  While surgical techniques have improved, wear and tear still affects these players, particularly little guys who need to basically give up their body in order to be effective, which Rondo qualifies as.

[Celtics18]

There is the possibility that Rondo will never be the same player he was before his injury, that he will spend the rest of his career battling his health, and that he will start to rapidly deteriorate, with his best years behind him.  It's possible.  Injuries are a nasty thing, and we've seen them cut short the careers of many a promising player. 

It's also possible that he will recover from his knee surgery and have another seven years as productive--or more--as his first seven.  There is a good amount of precedence for good to great point guards having their best years from their late twenties into their mid thirties.

So, for those of you who want to take the cynical approach and say that the former is more likely, go ahead.  I understand wanting to take the negative view and guard expectations against disappointment. 

I'm going to go ahead and take the more optimistic view that says the evidence shows that there are elite level players (even ones who suffered major injuries mid-career) who have gone on to have had lots of success later in their career.  And, I expect Rajon Rondo to follow that path.