The prime years of elite NBA point guards.

[Celtics18]

I've been reading quite a bit of speculation that Rajon Rondo at twenty-seven years of age is facing a point where he is entering the downside of his career.

It always seemed to me that many of the elite point guards to play this game have played their best basketball well in to their thirties, so I decided to check out the numbers for the first seven seasons of their careers vs. the numbers for the next seven seasons of their careers for a selected group of the most recent elite point guards. 

The players I selected where John Stockton, Gary Payton, Jason Kidd, Steve Nash, and Tony Parker (in Parker's case, I compared his first seven years vs. his next five as he's only played 12 seasons to date).

Here are the numbers:

Stockton:

First seven years:  12.5 PPG, 10.9 APG

Next seven:  14.6 PPG, 11.6 APG

Payton:

First seven years:  15.5 PPG, 6.5 APG

Next seven:  20.7 PPG, 8.1 APG

Kidd:

First seven years:  14.1 PPG, 9.4 APG

Next seven:  14.3 PPG, 9.2 APG

Nash:

First seven years: 12.1 PPG, 5.6 APG

Next seven:  16.7 PPG, 10.7 APG

Parker:

First seven:  16 PPG, 5.5 APG

Next five:  18.9 PPG, 6.9 APG

Rondo:

First seven:  11.1 PPG, 8.3 APG

Next seven:  ?

Of the five players I looked at, only Jason Kidd didn't make a significant leap in production from his first seven years in the league to his next seven years in the league.

Assuming that Rondo can make a full recovery from his knee surgery, I'm confident that the best is yet to come from our (still) young point guard.  Keeping my fingers crossed. 

[PhoSita]

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/f/francst01.html
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/m/marbust01.html
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/a/architi01.html
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/w/willija02.html
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/s/stoudda01.html
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/s/smithke01.html
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/c/claxtsp01.html


It turns out that it's pretty easy to do this cherry-picking thing in the other direction, too.

Rondo could potentially increase his production as he gets older if he can add an outside shot and compensate in other ways for his gradual decline in speed and athleticism.

Or, he could decline rather rapidly after he turns 27-28 and be a limited role player before he reaches 35.

[Chris]

I hate doing comparisons with Rondo, because he is such a unique talent.  There really has been no one quite like him.  This makes it really hard to predict how the rest of his career will go.

Will he continue to get better at shooting, which will make him an even better player as he gets older?

Will he lose some of his athleticism, which set him apart in the first place, killing his effectiveness? 

Will his unique bodytype allow him to maintain his athleticism a lot longer than the average player (kind of like Iverson)?

[Celtics18]

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/f/francst01.html
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/m/marbust01.html
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/a/architi01.html
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/w/willija02.html
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/s/stoudda01.html
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/s/smithke01.html
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/c/claxtsp01.html


It turns out that it's pretty easy to do this cherry-picking thing in the other direction, too.

Rondo could potentially increase his production as he gets older if he can add an outside shot and compensate in other ways for his gradual decline in speed and athleticism.

Or, he could decline rather rapidly after he turns 27-28 and be a limited role player before he reaches 35.

Speedy Claxton?  Jason Williams?

You should have stopped after Kenny Smith or Damon Stoudemire.

Anyway, I realize that it's not a given that Rondo's best years are ahead of him.  I'm really only trying to point out that it's entirely possible. 

[PhoSita]

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/f/francst01.html
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/m/marbust01.html
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/a/architi01.html
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/w/willija02.html
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/s/stoudda01.html
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/s/smithke01.html
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/c/claxtsp01.html


It turns out that it's pretty easy to do this cherry-picking thing in the other direction, too.

Rondo could potentially increase his production as he gets older if he can add an outside shot and compensate in other ways for his gradual decline in speed and athleticism.

Or, he could decline rather rapidly after he turns 27-28 and be a limited role player before he reaches 35.

Speedy Claxton?  Jason Williams?

You should have stopped after Kenny Smith or Damon Stoudemire.

Anyway, I realize that it's not a given that Rondo's best years are ahead of him.  I'm really only trying to point out that it's entirely possible.

Honestly, I find comparing Rondo to Steve Nash just as questionable as comparing him to Jason Williams or Speedy Claxton.

The point is just that you can find tons of point guards who showed a lot of promise or who were really productive their first 5-7 years in the league, then they got to their late 20's and declined pretty quickly.

It's not guaranteed that Rondo will be able to adjust to a loss of speed and athleticism, which will only be exacerbated by a major knee injury. 

Your correct that it's entirely possible that Rondo will be just fine well into his 30s.  I think it's a point of serious debate, though.

[Celtics18]

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/f/francst01.html
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/m/marbust01.html
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/a/architi01.html
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/w/willija02.html
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/s/stoudda01.html
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/s/smithke01.html
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/c/claxtsp01.html


It turns out that it's pretty easy to do this cherry-picking thing in the other direction, too.

Rondo could potentially increase his production as he gets older if he can add an outside shot and compensate in other ways for his gradual decline in speed and athleticism.

Or, he could decline rather rapidly after he turns 27-28 and be a limited role player before he reaches 35.

Speedy Claxton?  Jason Williams?

You should have stopped after Kenny Smith or Damon Stoudemire.

Anyway, I realize that it's not a given that Rondo's best years are ahead of him.  I'm really only trying to point out that it's entirely possible.

Honestly, I find comparing Rondo to Steve Nash just as questionable as comparing him to Jason Williams or Speedy Claxton.

The point is just that you can find tons of point guards who showed a lot of promise or who were really productive their first 5-7 years in the league, then they got to their late 20's and declined pretty quickly.

It's not guaranteed that Rondo will be able to adjust to a loss of speed and athleticism, which will only be exacerbated by a major knee injury. 

Your correct that it's entirely possible that Rondo will be just fine well into his 30s.  I think it's a point of serious debate, though.

I concede that it's a debatable point.  We'll have to wait and see.  But, there folks around these blogs (you are obviously not one of them) who are suggesting that it's a given that at the age of twenty-seven that Rajon Rondo's best years are behind him. 

All I'm saying is what you have echoed that it is entirely possible that we haven't seen the best of Rajon Rondo.

I'm actually looking forward to seeing him play on a team that hopefully isn't in the bottom two in the league in field goal attempts per game.  I think that with a different team style of play, we could see Rondo really flourish much in the way Steve Nash did when he moved to the up-tempo Phoenix Suns.

I'm hoping that Brad Stevens, despite his plodding style at Butler, has a little Mike D'Antoni in him somewhere. 

[PhoSita]

I'm actually looking forward to seeing him play on a team that hopefully isn't in the bottom two in the league in field goal attempts per game.  I think that with a different team style of play, we could see Rondo really flourish much in the way Steve Nash did when he moved to the up-tempo Phoenix Suns.

I'm hoping that Brad Stevens, despite his plodding style at Butler, has a little Mike D'Antoni in him somewhere.

This is a nice idea, but as I've said elsewhere, I just don't see it this year based on the roster we have.

Perhaps Rondo could orchestrate a prolific, fast-break heavy up-tempo offense.  But you'd need to surround him with a ton of shooters to do it.

The current roster isn't loaded with shooters.  In fact, if you look at the likely rotation I'd argue that there's going to be a notable lack of floor spacing.  I believe this team will be painful to watch on offense at times -- which is saying something considering they were already painful last year when Pierce and Garnett were still here.

I'd invite you to look at other teams that in recent years have had a lot of quick, athletic players with coaches who like to focus on defense.  The primary example that comes to my mind is the 76ers.  Those 76ers teams were awful offensively.  Other teams like the Wizards, Raptors, and Bobcats have had lots of quick, athletic players too.  They too were painful offensively.

What made those D'Antoni teams so potent offensively was all of the shooters they had and frontcourt players like Marion, Stoudemire, and Diaw who could rebound well even when they were playing out of their position at the 4/5 against guys who were bigger than them but much slower. 

Steve Nash's passing was a huge factor too, obviously, but so was Steve Nash's amazing shooting ability.

[Celtics18]

I'm actually looking forward to seeing him play on a team that hopefully isn't in the bottom two in the league in field goal attempts per game.  I think that with a different team style of play, we could see Rondo really flourish much in the way Steve Nash did when he moved to the up-tempo Phoenix Suns.

I'm hoping that Brad Stevens, despite his plodding style at Butler, has a little Mike D'Antoni in him somewhere.

This is a nice idea, but as I've said elsewhere, I just don't see it this year based on the roster we have.

Perhaps Rondo could orchestrate a prolific, fast-break heavy up-tempo offense.  But you'd need to surround him with a ton of shooters to do it.

The current roster isn't loaded with shooters.  In fact, if you look at the likely rotation I'd argue that there's going to be a notable lack of floor spacing.  I believe this team will be painful to watch on offense at times -- which is saying something considering they were already painful last year when Pierce and Garnett were still here.

I'd invite you to look at other teams that in recent years have had a lot of quick, athletic players with coaches who like to focus on defense.  The primary example that comes to my mind is the 76ers.  Those 76ers teams were awful offensively.  Other teams like the Wizards, Raptors, and Bobcats have had lots of quick, athletic players too.  They too were painful offensively.

What made those D'Antoni teams so potent offensively was all of the shooters they had and frontcourt players like Marion, Stoudemire, and Diaw who could rebound well even when they were playing out of their position at the 4/5 against guys who were bigger than them but much slower. 

Steve Nash's passing was a huge factor too, obviously, but so was Steve Nash's amazing shooting ability.

Well, we have Lee, Green, Bradley (who I think will ultimately be a better spot up shooter than he showed last season), Olynyk, and Bass (who doesn't have deep range, but is a great mid-range shooter) who can all shoot the ball.

I don't think long range shooting will be as big an issue as you seem to think. 

I don't even know if Stevens will attempt to institute a faster pace game plan, but I do think that trying to push the tempo more represents our best chance at having any kind of success next year. 

What those other young, athletic teams that you mention never had is an open court point guard with the end to end pace and the talent for finding open players of Rajon Rondo. 

[PhoSita]

I'm actually looking forward to seeing him play on a team that hopefully isn't in the bottom two in the league in field goal attempts per game.  I think that with a different team style of play, we could see Rondo really flourish much in the way Steve Nash did when he moved to the up-tempo Phoenix Suns.

I'm hoping that Brad Stevens, despite his plodding style at Butler, has a little Mike D'Antoni in him somewhere.

This is a nice idea, but as I've said elsewhere, I just don't see it this year based on the roster we have.

Perhaps Rondo could orchestrate a prolific, fast-break heavy up-tempo offense.  But you'd need to surround him with a ton of shooters to do it.

The current roster isn't loaded with shooters.  In fact, if you look at the likely rotation I'd argue that there's going to be a notable lack of floor spacing.  I believe this team will be painful to watch on offense at times -- which is saying something considering they were already painful last year when Pierce and Garnett were still here.

I'd invite you to look at other teams that in recent years have had a lot of quick, athletic players with coaches who like to focus on defense.  The primary example that comes to my mind is the 76ers.  Those 76ers teams were awful offensively.  Other teams like the Wizards, Raptors, and Bobcats have had lots of quick, athletic players too.  They too were painful offensively.

What made those D'Antoni teams so potent offensively was all of the shooters they had and frontcourt players like Marion, Stoudemire, and Diaw who could rebound well even when they were playing out of their position at the 4/5 against guys who were bigger than them but much slower. 

Steve Nash's passing was a huge factor too, obviously, but so was Steve Nash's amazing shooting ability.

Well, we have Lee, Green, Bradley (who I think will ultimately be a better spot up shooter than he showed last season), Olynyk, and Bass (who doesn't have deep range, but is a great mid-range shooter) who can all shoot the ball.

I don't think long range shooting will be as big an issue as you seem to think. 

I don't even know if Stevens will attempt to institute a faster pace game plan, but I do think that trying to push the tempo more represents our best chance at having any kind of success next year. 

What those other young, athletic teams that you mention never had is an open court point guard with the end to end pace and the talent for finding open players of Rajon Rondo.

I view Lee and Green as our only reliable outside shooters, and they are spot-up guys.

Bradley is very streaky and not reliable except when he's in the right corner.

Bass is mid-range only. 

Olynyk can probably shoot, but he's a rookie and didn't take a lot of 3's in college so I expect he'll be inconsistent from outside early in his career.

Brooks / Crawford are streaky chuckers who can't really shoot that well.

Wallace can't shoot.

Rondo is Rondo.

If I had to guess I'd say our most common lineup with everybody healthy will be Rondo - Lee - Green - Sullinger - Humphries.

That group doesn't have any outright non-shooters, but only two of those guys can reliably hit threes, and then mostly as spot-up guys.

We don't really have any guys who are gonna come off screens or pull-up for three in transition, and nobody who I'd call an elite off-the-dribble shooter.

[kozlodoev]

Of the five players I looked at, only Jason Kidd didn't make a significant leap in production from his first seven years in the league to his next seven years in the league.

Coincidentally, Kidd is also the only one from the lot who hasn't been a consistent shooter for the large part of his career.

[jambr380]

Of the five players I looked at, only Jason Kidd didn't make a significant leap in production from his first seven years in the league to his next seven years in the league.

Coincidentally, Kidd is also the only one from the lot who hasn't been a consistent shooter for the large part of his career.

Isn't Kidd the best comparison of the group? I agree that there are many pgs who fall off a cliff after their first seven years in the league, but Rondo isn't only good because of his scoring ability - he is a do-it-all player like Kidd with an amazing sense for the ball. Unless he physically falls apart, I see his career most likely to resemble Kidd's.

[BballTim]

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/f/francst01.html
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/m/marbust01.html
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/a/architi01.html
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/w/willija02.html
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/s/stoudda01.html
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/s/smithke01.html
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/c/claxtsp01.html


It turns out that it's pretty easy to do this cherry-picking thing in the other direction, too.

Rondo could potentially increase his production as he gets older if he can add an outside shot and compensate in other ways for his gradual decline in speed and athleticism.

Or, he could decline rather rapidly after he turns 27-28 and be a limited role player before he reaches 35.

  I'm guessing you have a very different idea of what constitutes an elite pg than most people.

[BballTim]

Of the five players I looked at, only Jason Kidd didn't make a significant leap in production from his first seven years in the league to his next seven years in the league.

Coincidentally, Kidd is also the only one from the lot who hasn't been a consistent shooter for the large part of his career.

  I think it's more the case that Kidd hit his prime as a player much faster than anyone else on the list. It's like comparing Rondo to CP or Deron, they both reached close to their peak in a year or two, Rondo took longer. His numbers are more likely to go up as his career progresses than either of them.

[blink]

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/f/francst01.html
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/m/marbust01.html
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/a/architi01.html
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/w/willija02.html
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/s/stoudda01.html
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/s/smithke01.html
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/c/claxtsp01.html


It turns out that it's pretty easy to do this cherry-picking thing in the other direction, too.

Rondo could potentially increase his production as he gets older if he can add an outside shot and compensate in other ways for his gradual decline in speed and athleticism.

Or, he could decline rather rapidly after he turns 27-28 and be a limited role player before he reaches 35.

Speedy Claxton?  Jason Williams?

You should have stopped after Kenny Smith or Damon Stoudemire.

Anyway, I realize that it's not a given that Rondo's best years are ahead of him.  I'm really only trying to point out that it's entirely possible.

Honestly, I find comparing Rondo to Steve Nash just as questionable as comparing him to Jason Williams or Speedy Claxton.

That doesn't make any sense to me.  So I guess that we should use the 'barely hung onto a roster spot' guys to determine what Rondo's career path might be?

Seriously, you should be comparing him to other point guards that had more than 3 all star appearances, led the league in assists multiple times, and led the league in triple doubles multiple times....oh wait, yeah there isn't anyone that we can compare him to except Magic or Oscar R.

I agree with the previous post that says it is really hard to predict Rondo's career path.  But he is a step up at least from most of the players on your neg cherry picked list.

[nickagneta]

Honestly, I find comparing Rondo to Steve Nash just as questionable as comparing him to Jason Williams or Speedy Claxton.

I don't. Rondo has done stuff(like average over 11 assists per game for three separate and consecutive years) that very few PGs(less than 5), have ever done. Comparing him to the best of the best PGs I think is a whole lot more realistic than comparing him to extremely average to role player average PGs like Claxton, Jason Williams or Damon Stoudemire.