The prime years of elite NBA point guards.

[Celtics18]

I'm actually looking forward to seeing him play on a team that hopefully isn't in the bottom two in the league in field goal attempts per game.  I think that with a different team style of play, we could see Rondo really flourish much in the way Steve Nash did when he moved to the up-tempo Phoenix Suns.

I'm hoping that Brad Stevens, despite his plodding style at Butler, has a little Mike D'Antoni in him somewhere.

This is a nice idea, but as I've said elsewhere, I just don't see it this year based on the roster we have.

Perhaps Rondo could orchestrate a prolific, fast-break heavy up-tempo offense.  But you'd need to surround him with a ton of shooters to do it.

The current roster isn't loaded with shooters.  In fact, if you look at the likely rotation I'd argue that there's going to be a notable lack of floor spacing.  I believe this team will be painful to watch on offense at times -- which is saying something considering they were already painful last year when Pierce and Garnett were still here.

I'd invite you to look at other teams that in recent years have had a lot of quick, athletic players with coaches who like to focus on defense.  The primary example that comes to my mind is the 76ers.  Those 76ers teams were awful offensively.  Other teams like the Wizards, Raptors, and Bobcats have had lots of quick, athletic players too.  They too were painful offensively.

What made those D'Antoni teams so potent offensively was all of the shooters they had and frontcourt players like Marion, Stoudemire, and Diaw who could rebound well even when they were playing out of their position at the 4/5 against guys who were bigger than them but much slower. 

Steve Nash's passing was a huge factor too, obviously, but so was Steve Nash's amazing shooting ability.

Well, we have Lee, Green, Bradley (who I think will ultimately be a better spot up shooter than he showed last season), Olynyk, and Bass (who doesn't have deep range, but is a great mid-range shooter) who can all shoot the ball.

I don't think long range shooting will be as big an issue as you seem to think. 

I don't even know if Stevens will attempt to institute a faster pace game plan, but I do think that trying to push the tempo more represents our best chance at having any kind of success next year. 

What those other young, athletic teams that you mention never had is an open court point guard with the end to end pace and the talent for finding open players of Rajon Rondo.

I view Lee and Green as our only reliable outside shooters, and they are spot-up guys.

Bradley is very streaky and not reliable except when he's in the right corner.

Bass is mid-range only. 

Olynyk can probably shoot, but he's a rookie and didn't take a lot of 3's in college so I expect he'll be inconsistent from outside early in his career.

Brooks / Crawford are streaky chuckers who can't really shoot that well.

Wallace can't shoot.

Rondo is Rondo.

If I had to guess I'd say our most common lineup with everybody healthy will be Rondo - Lee - Green - Sullinger - Humphries.

That group doesn't have any outright non-shooters, but only two of those guys can reliably hit threes, and then mostly as spot-up guys.

We don't really have any guys who are gonna come off screens or pull-up for three in transition, and nobody who I'd call an elite off-the-dribble shooter.

Luckily, Rondo has improved tremendously as a pull up mid-range jump shooter.  That has already proven to be a serviceable weapon in the transition game as the defense backs off him for fear of him getting in the lane or scrambles around trying to find other guys trailing or running to the rim. 

As far as our other main guys being mostly spot up shooters, that's not a bad thing if we are running a transition offense with Rondo at the helm.  There'll be plenty of opportunities for everybody to spot up for easy looks. 

Crash and Humphries (and Fav) will need to run hard to the rim on transition opportunities to either be the recipients of dunks and layups or to help open up opportunities for the spot up shooters.

Sully's role will be to rebound and outlet. 

For me, this will all be dependent on having a defense that creates lots of turnovers and generally disrupts the opposing teams' offense on the perimeter.  I think we have the personnel to be that kind of defense. 

[Boris Badenov]

Of the five players I looked at, only Jason Kidd didn't make a significant leap in production from his first seven years in the league to his next seven years in the league.

Coincidentally, Kidd is also the only one from the lot who hasn't been a consistent shooter for the large part of his career.

Isn't Kidd the best comparison of the group? I agree that there are many pgs who fall off a cliff after their first seven years in the league, but Rondo isn't only good because of his scoring ability - he is a do-it-all player like Kidd with an amazing sense for the ball. Unless he physically falls apart, I see his career most likely to resemble Kidd's.

Kidd is also a nice comparison because he had knee surgery - arguably more severe, since it was microfracture - about halfway through his career.

[banty19]

First off, I think you need to instantly throw out Nash and Stockton. Both are much better shooters and shooting is a skill that ages much better than what Rondo has.

After that, you have to stop using just points and assists. All of the Big 3 scored less points when they came together in 07-08. Did they get worse? Personally, I don't think so. Scoring is dependent on a variety of factors and can actually be a sign a player is selfish. Same with assists. You'd have to think Rondo won't put up as many assists as he did with the Big 3.

If you're looking for Rondo comparisons, I'd look for rebounding point guards that can't shoot. Off the top of my head, Andre Miller seems like a decent one:

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/m/millean02.html

Kidd is also a pretty good comparison.

[kozlodoev]

Of the five players I looked at, only Jason Kidd didn't make a significant leap in production from his first seven years in the league to his next seven years in the league.

Coincidentally, Kidd is also the only one from the lot who hasn't been a consistent shooter for the large part of his career.

Isn't Kidd the best comparison of the group? I agree that there are many pgs who fall off a cliff after their first seven years in the league, but Rondo isn't only good because of his scoring ability - he is a do-it-all player like Kidd with an amazing sense for the ball. Unless he physically falls apart, I see his career most likely to resemble Kidd's.

Kidd is also a nice comparison because he had knee surgery - arguably more severe, since it was microfracture - about halfway through his career.

If Rondo turns into a reasonable faximile of Jason Kidd for the rest of his career, I won't be disappointed. It's also worth noting that Kidd was never really close to carrying a team to a title on his back either.

[Celtics18]

First off, I think you need to instantly throw out Nash and Stockton. Both are much better shooters and shooting is a skill that ages much better than what Rondo has.

After that, you have to stop using just points and assists. All of the Big 3 scored less points when they came together in 07-08. Did they get worse? Personally, I don't think so. Scoring is dependent on a variety of factors and can actually be a sign a player is selfish. Same with assists. You'd have to think Rondo won't put up as many assists as he did with the Big 3.

If you're looking for Rondo comparisons, I'd look for rebounding point guards that can't shoot. Off the top of my head, Andre Miller seems like a decent one:

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/m/millean02.html

Kidd is also a pretty good comparison.

I don't see Rondo's assists dipping.  I expect his scoring numbers to go up, though. 

[BballTim]

Of the five players I looked at, only Jason Kidd didn't make a significant leap in production from his first seven years in the league to his next seven years in the league.

Coincidentally, Kidd is also the only one from the lot who hasn't been a consistent shooter for the large part of his career.

Isn't Kidd the best comparison of the group? I agree that there are many pgs who fall off a cliff after their first seven years in the league, but Rondo isn't only good because of his scoring ability - he is a do-it-all player like Kidd with an amazing sense for the ball. Unless he physically falls apart, I see his career most likely to resemble Kidd's.

Kidd is also a nice comparison because he had knee surgery - arguably more severe, since it was microfracture - about halfway through his career.

If Rondo turns into a reasonable faximile of Jason Kidd for the rest of his career, I won't be disappointed. It's also worth noting that Kidd was never really close to carrying a team to a title on his back either.

  Two trips to the finals isn't too bad.

[Boris Badenov]

Of the five players I looked at, only Jason Kidd didn't make a significant leap in production from his first seven years in the league to his next seven years in the league.

Coincidentally, Kidd is also the only one from the lot who hasn't been a consistent shooter for the large part of his career.

Isn't Kidd the best comparison of the group? I agree that there are many pgs who fall off a cliff after their first seven years in the league, but Rondo isn't only good because of his scoring ability - he is a do-it-all player like Kidd with an amazing sense for the ball. Unless he physically falls apart, I see his career most likely to resemble Kidd's.

Kidd is also a nice comparison because he had knee surgery - arguably more severe, since it was microfracture - about halfway through his career.

If Rondo turns into a reasonable faximile of Jason Kidd for the rest of his career, I won't be disappointed. It's also worth noting that Kidd was never really close to carrying a team to a title on his back either.

  Two trips to the finals isn't too bad.

Not to mention the six All-NBA teams, nine All-Defensive teams, ten All-Star selections and five top-10 MVP finishes, including 2nd once.

Second all-time in steals. Second all-time in assists. Third in minutes played. Certain Hall of Famer.

If Rondo ends up having the career Kidd did, I'd be pretty happy.

[D.o.s.]

Of the five players I looked at, only Jason Kidd didn't make a significant leap in production from his first seven years in the league to his next seven years in the league.

Coincidentally, Kidd is also the only one from the lot who hasn't been a consistent shooter for the large part of his career.

Isn't Kidd the best comparison of the group? I agree that there are many pgs who fall off a cliff after their first seven years in the league, but Rondo isn't only good because of his scoring ability - he is a do-it-all player like Kidd with an amazing sense for the ball. Unless he physically falls apart, I see his career most likely to resemble Kidd's.

Kidd is also a nice comparison because he had knee surgery - arguably more severe, since it was microfracture - about halfway through his career.

If Rondo turns into a reasonable faximile of Jason Kidd for the rest of his career, I won't be disappointed. It's also worth noting that Kidd was never really close to carrying a team to a title on his back either.

  Two trips to the finals isn't too bad.

That was probably the worst Eastern Conference of the last twenty years.

that said, if Rondo turns out to be Kidd 2.0, that's cool with me.

[kozlodoev]

That was probably the worst Eastern Conference of the last twenty years.

In the two years when Kidd made it out with NJ, he had Todd McCulloch and Jason Collins start and play 20+ minutes. Not sure this is a testament about Kidd's ability, or an illustration of the quality in the East at that time. Probably both.

[BballTim]

Of the five players I looked at, only Jason Kidd didn't make a significant leap in production from his first seven years in the league to his next seven years in the league.

Coincidentally, Kidd is also the only one from the lot who hasn't been a consistent shooter for the large part of his career.

Isn't Kidd the best comparison of the group? I agree that there are many pgs who fall off a cliff after their first seven years in the league, but Rondo isn't only good because of his scoring ability - he is a do-it-all player like Kidd with an amazing sense for the ball. Unless he physically falls apart, I see his career most likely to resemble Kidd's.

Kidd is also a nice comparison because he had knee surgery - arguably more severe, since it was microfracture - about halfway through his career.

If Rondo turns into a reasonable faximile of Jason Kidd for the rest of his career, I won't be disappointed. It's also worth noting that Kidd was never really close to carrying a team to a title on his back either.

  Two trips to the finals isn't too bad.

That was probably the worst Eastern Conference of the last twenty years.

that said, if Rondo turns out to be Kidd 2.0, that's cool with me.

  I don't think that some of the other teams that made it out of the East (like the Pacers or Sixers, for instance) were appreciably better than the Nets.

[Boris Badenov]

Of the five players I looked at, only Jason Kidd didn't make a significant leap in production from his first seven years in the league to his next seven years in the league.

Coincidentally, Kidd is also the only one from the lot who hasn't been a consistent shooter for the large part of his career.

Isn't Kidd the best comparison of the group? I agree that there are many pgs who fall off a cliff after their first seven years in the league, but Rondo isn't only good because of his scoring ability - he is a do-it-all player like Kidd with an amazing sense for the ball. Unless he physically falls apart, I see his career most likely to resemble Kidd's.

Kidd is also a nice comparison because he had knee surgery - arguably more severe, since it was microfracture - about halfway through his career.

If Rondo turns into a reasonable faximile of Jason Kidd for the rest of his career, I won't be disappointed. It's also worth noting that Kidd was never really close to carrying a team to a title on his back either.

  Two trips to the finals isn't too bad.

That was probably the worst Eastern Conference of the last twenty years.

that said, if Rondo turns out to be Kidd 2.0, that's cool with me.

  I don't think that some of the other teams that made it out of the East (like the Pacers or Sixers, for instance) were appreciably better than the Nets.

Or the Knicks!

That stretch was just really bad for the East. Related to another discussion that's been going on here, from 99-05 you could argue that all the East final teams put together had a total of one top 5 player (Iverson in 01) in any one year.

[guava_wrench]

Of the five players I looked at, only Jason Kidd didn't make a significant leap in production from his first seven years in the league to his next seven years in the league.

Coincidentally, Kidd is also the only one from the lot who hasn't been a consistent shooter for the large part of his career.

Isn't Kidd the best comparison of the group? I agree that there are many pgs who fall off a cliff after their first seven years in the league, but Rondo isn't only good because of his scoring ability - he is a do-it-all player like Kidd with an amazing sense for the ball. Unless he physically falls apart, I see his career most likely to resemble Kidd's.

Kidd is also a nice comparison because he had knee surgery - arguably more severe, since it was microfracture - about halfway through his career.

Kidd became a 3pt shooter for the second half of his career. This is why he no longer needed quickness. Kidd was also stronger, so he could body guys on defense as his lateral movement decreased. While Rondo isn't going to grow, he can still develop a better perimeter game.

Kidd also didn't hold on to the ball as much as Rondo. Kidd is quick to move the ball. Rondo will need to improve on that if he wants a longer career as an elite PG as he experiences a decrease in explosiveness. He might slow down, but the ball doesn't.

Miller is an interesting comparison because he has been around a while, is almost as good as when he led the league in assists, but never developed a shot.

[bobbyv]

Rondo's IQ will take him pretty far into his thirties like Kidd, although he needs to add 3-point range to make it easier.

[Moranis]

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/f/francst01.html
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/m/marbust01.html
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/a/architi01.html
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/w/willija02.html
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/s/stoudda01.html
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/s/smithke01.html
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/c/claxtsp01.html


It turns out that it's pretty easy to do this cherry-picking thing in the other direction, too.

Rondo could potentially increase his production as he gets older if he can add an outside shot and compensate in other ways for his gradual decline in speed and athleticism.

Or, he could decline rather rapidly after he turns 27-28 and be a limited role player before he reaches 35.

  I'm guessing you have a very different idea of what constitutes an elite pg than most people.

That was what I was thinking, but guys like Kevin Johnson and Penny Hardaway got hurt right around year 7/8 and were never the same.  I think that is a very real possibility with Rondo.  Tiny Archibald tailed off dramatically after his 7th year.  Isiah played 13 seasons, the last 6 he was never even at his career average in points and only eclipsed the assist career average once.  He went downhill pretty dramatically after his 7th year and was retired at 32.  Kevin Porter (who led the league in assists 4 times) was basically toast after his 7th year and retired at 32. 

While his choice of PG's was suspect, he was absolutely correct in that you can cherry pick any group of players and leave off the ones that don't help the position you want to take.

[EJPLAYA]

I'm kind of tired of people thinking the guy is going to get very much better as a shooter. This has been posted for 6 straight years here. Doesn't happen. There was a reasonable improvement a few years back, however it only put him to the level of "tolerable". He hasn't progressed past that for the past couple years. He is as good a shooter as he ever will be. Other than the jump in FG% from his rookie season, he has shot about the same. Going into his 8th season, he isn't going to magically change his ability to shoot. He is what he is.