ESPN predicts Celtics to finish #12 in the East.

[BballTim]

Iam actually hoping for rondo to arrive late and want to see what pressey can do a little at first.

This way we can see more of what stevens is about. Pressey also loves to push the ball anytime he has a chance, and is a ab style defender.

I also know its not true that rondo couldnt run bc kg and pp were older slower. When ab and lee was on the court, they ran all the time.

No one is saying that Rondo couldn't run.  He does run and he did run.  He's probably the best point guard in the league at pushing the ball end to end on the break.  We've seen it countless times, your selective memory notwithstanding. 

The negative hyperbole on one of the best point guards in the league reaches farcical levels sometimes.

Rondo has to run to maximize his skills. He can't/lack of confidence to shoot consistently and almost nil threat from the three, so dribbling slowly up the court like he is Chris Paul, Steph Curry won't work as great. He can still play half court, but he has to work harder and get other guys to run around more to get open.

  It's true that Rondo is great in the open court but he does fine running a half court offense. It's more work for him but people who don't run around much (like KG and Bass) get plenty of easy shots.

[bfrombleacher]

It's true that Rondo is great in the open court but he does fine running a half court offense. It's more work for him but people who don't run around much (like KG and Bass) get plenty of easy shots.

The stagnant offense could be by design as well as a result of personnel. In my opinion people overlook this and only see Rondo pound the rock.

But it's easier to defend 3-4 less athletic, essentially jump shooters, with an offense that revolves around the mid-range shot. Defenders can stick to their man because there's nobody underneath the basket to command the double team and their man probably won't cut to the basket. Defenses set and it was easy for our guys to get complacent.

There was quite a bit of standing around and waiting for Rondo to create 1 on 1.

[BballTim]

Stevens is about statistical analysis and everyone being on the same page. This means no rolling  the ball midcourt unless time is running out, no gambling on defense, no pounding the rock.

In certain spots, gambling on defense could be the correct play from a mathematical perspective.

which sport is that??

In basketball gambling on defense usually doesn't turn out well.  Rondo taking focus away from his man, trying to go for the steal somewhere else is risky. Player x predicting his player won't go to his left this time, when he can't go right is risky. Stevens wants high percentage plays from the games i've seen him coach. If that guy who can't dribble left very well, beats you going left once or twice, he is not going to care as long as you don't let him beat you going to his right.

Here are some numbers I made up in a simplified case.  The numbers are not intended to represent accurate real-game scenarios.

Let's say the following happens with normal defense:
The opposing team scores two points 45% of the time and on the following possession will give up two points 40% of the time because they can set their half-court defense.    The 55% of the time that the Celtics get a stop, they score on 50% of possessions because they sometimes have higher percentage opportunities in transition.

Let's say the following happens with a gambling defensive strategy.
Let's say that when gambling works, you give up zero points and have a 70% chance of scoring due to an even higher rate of having transition scoring opportunities.  When gambling doesn't work, you give up points 60% of the time and have a 40% chance of scoring on the following offensive possession.

The value of the first strategy is:
0.45(-2+0.4*2)+0.55(0+.5*2)=0.01

The value of the second strategy is:
x(0+0.7*2)+(1-x)(-2*0.6+0.4*2), where x is the rate at which gambling succeeds.

If I did the arithmetic right, for the value of the second strategy to be higher than than the value of the first strategy, gambling for a steal has to be successful more than 27.8% of the time.

I don't know what the actual value of gambling for a steal is.  I'd guess that always going for a steal is a bad strategy.  I'd guess that never gambling for a steal is also sub-optimal.  Rondo is probably better at stealing the ball than most other point guards, so he should probably be gambling for a steal more often than other players.

Good post but rondo is not great at stealing the ball.  Id give the green light to ab and lee to steal bc they are bonafide thieves but rondo needs to pick his spot better.

If you gamble or try, get burnt, its a horrible domino effect. A pg especially that is covered by no one or has 2 sec free to shoot jumpers will, usually get the basket.

Players that can stay in front of their man, rotate, not bite on pump fakes, fight through screens, box out guys consistently are the best defenders in the league. Stealing the ball is a luxury and if cant do it 3 out of 4 times success rate , dont do it. Rondo was more like 2 out of 4 times witg his success rate

  1v1 defense is important but so's team defense. Rondo gets plenty of steals but he also disrupts opposing offenses. He knocks the ball loose when people dribble near him, he gets into passing lanes, he cheats over and cuts off people who are trying to dribble past their man. Among other things, that pushes teams deeper into the shot clock, which makes it more difficult to score. All of those things are important to the team's success, but none of them appear in your list of traits of top defenders.

[nickagneta]

I am pretty sure it was a defensive tenet for the Celtics that the guard(PG or SG) that was guarding his man on the court's weakside was supposed to cheat off his man towards the paint and into a passing lane. Saw Ray, Rondo, Bradley and Lee do it so much, it had to be by design. This allowed for the guard to be available to steal cross court, over the top passes, double quickly down low from the weak side, if necessary, or rotate across the foul line to cover a man in the three point area if the man with the ball strong side goes baseline.

So, yeah, Rondo cheated into the passing lanes a lot but it was because that's what he was supposed to do. Bradley, Lee and Ray Ray too.

[Fafnir]

I am pretty sure it was a defensive tenet for the Celtics that the guard(PG or SG) that was guarding his man on the court's weakside was supposed to cheat off his man towards the paint and into a passing lane. Saw Ray, Rondo, Bradley and Lee do it so much, it had to be by design. This allowed for the guard to be available to steal cross court, over the top passes, double quickly down low from the weak side, if necessary, or rotate across the foul line to cover a man in the three point area if the man with the ball strong side goes baseline.

So, yeah, Rondo cheated into the passing lanes a lot but it was because that's what he was supposed to do. Bradley, Lee and Ray Ray too.

+1

C's overloaded the strong side, so the guard on the weakside goes zone in some manner, plays the passing lanes is part of that.