A logical scenario that could play out

[tyrone biggums]

What if we do what the majority of this board wants and tanks. We get one of the so called superstars in this draft. He busts under intense media scrutiny as being the new face of the franchise and being called the next LeBron or the next Pierce. Rondo ends up being a traded much to the tanking fans delight only to assert himself as one of the premier point guards in the game, again. So the Celtics continue to tank hard. Until 2018-2019 when they finally would have enough 1st round picks to compete. But those guys in 2014 and 2015 are tired of rebuilding they demand trades or even worse...hit free agency. Attendance drops and Ainge leaves.

Would tanking and not cashing in those picks for an established superstar or two be worth it? Would trading Rondo for nothing or close to nothing be worth it then?

[nostar]

I don't think you know what the word "logical" means.

What if Lebron decides to come here along with D12, KLove and Dwight Howard and we get Wiggins?

LOGIC!

I think what you're looking for is probability and I like   #s to accompany those arguments.

What is a bust? What is the probability that a player picked in the top-5 is a bust? what is the probability that we trade a top-10 player to tank? How frequently has that happened in NBA history?

These are better question maybe and can have quantitative answers to work with.

[rondohondo]

yea Danny is a moron , he is going to trade Rondo for nothing just to tank . Unless a Drummond type prospect is coming back, Rondo is not getting traded.

there's no logic in trading a top 20 player just entering his prime for a chance to draft a player you hope can be as good as playoff Rondo can be.

I am all for tanking , but not giving away Rondo in order to tank. We either get a blue chip prospect like Drummond along with a chance to draft in the top 5 in 2014 , or just sit Rondo out until after xmas and have Rondo and a top 5 pick next year.

[Quetzalcoatl]

Nobody is saying we want to tank for the next 8 years.  Literally nobody.  Pro-tanking people are largely saying:

1.) we just tank this year, because it's a strong draft and we don't have enough to go for a championship as it stands. The top 7 players in this draft are all likely superstars.  With the new CBA, one of those players on a rookie contract is a serious advantage against teams that don't have one

2.) we don't panic sign a free agent this year, since none of them are championship pieces and 2013-2014 is a weak free agent class.  2014-2015 is an extremely strong free agent class, so if we wait until then we can sign someone a lot more talented and we can free up more cap room in the meantime to make space for them

Cashing in our picks right now or singing a mediocre free agent to big money is a fool's errand.  If we had gotten Josh Smith and Monta Ellis, we still wouldn't have won a championship this year and we would be in salary cap hell for the next 5 years.  We can win all the first round playoff series in the world, but if we aren't winning a championship what is the point?  Boston only hangs championship banners in their rafters.  Taking a year off is our only real chance at seriously competing in the near future.

[hpantazo]

this is more like the "irrational fear scenario" than a "logical scenario"

[hpantazo]

how about this one"

what if we land Dwight Howard, Lebron, and Carmelo Anthony. They all get along well with Rondo and get so confident and relaxed that they start eating fried chicken and drinking beers in the locker room every night and during halftimes and on the bench, and become the worst team in the league? Then our GM and coach quit and we trade everyone.

Oh yea, that sort of already happened with the Red Sox.

[tyrone biggums]

Nobody is saying we want to tank for the next 8 years.  Literally nobody.  Pro-tanking people are largely saying:

1.) we just tank this year, because it's a strong draft and we don't have enough to go for a championship as it stands. The top 7 players in this draft are all likely superstars.  With the new CBA, one of those players on a rookie contract is a serious advantage against teams that don't have one

2.) we don't panic sign a free agent this year, since none of them are championship pieces and 2013-2014 is a weak free agent class.  2014-2015 is an extremely strong free agent class, so if we wait until then we can sign someone a lot more talented and we can free up more cap room in the meantime to make space for them

Cashing in our picks right now or singing a mediocre free agent to big money is a fool's errand.  If we had gotten Josh Smith and Monta Ellis, we still wouldn't have won a championship this year and we would be in salary cap hell for the next 5 years.  We can win all the first round playoff series in the world, but if we aren't winning a championship what is the point?  Boston only hangs championship banners in their rafters.  Taking a year off is our only real chance at seriously competing in the near future.

Here is the thing. Teams like the Bobcats Suns etc...don't plan to tank forever either they just keep finishing with bad records. If you don't develop young players and just do whatever with them then it will promote a losing culture. The draft class on paper is tremendous but remember that these are all high school kids who were playing against random high schoolers.

A bust for me would be Darko or Beasley both #2 overall picks that busted. Darko was heavily hyped. We do not have to cash in picks right now. But say next year the Celtics get the 7th pick and are offered one of the free agents for next year in a sign and trade. If this team still has Rondo then you would have to do it. The whole point is to eventually win. And for everyone that didn't understand the exact point of this thread it was to show the younger fans what it was like in the good old days of Wesley/Fox/Antoine/Sherman Douglas/Alton Lister etc...you know really really good players. I remember when Eric Montrosse was supposed to be the answer too. Jerome Moiso? Come on down! Ron Mercer?!!

Lottery is never a sure thing. If you get the opportunity to get a legit star you would have to take it.

As for Rondo getting traded for nothing. I would say half the board would support that idea since its in the interests of tanking.

[bfrombleacher]

This is perfectly logical.

Not trading Rondo leads to frustration by the pro-tanking Celtics fans around the world. Because of their passionate frustration, the body temperature of those fans collectively rise. Enough to melt the polar ice caps to a tipping point. And before you know it, you're staring at the end of civilization as we know it.

Mankind would probably build underwater infrastructure capable of sustaining human life. But can you imagine what life would be like? ...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NPQVrjnC1jo

Yes, it would be cute at first. But just imagine that everyday for the rest of your life and your children's lives.

Don't destroy civilization as we know it. Don't ruin our collective childhoods. Trade Rondo.

[hpantazo]

Nobody is saying we want to tank for the next 8 years.  Literally nobody.  Pro-tanking people are largely saying:

1.) we just tank this year, because it's a strong draft and we don't have enough to go for a championship as it stands. The top 7 players in this draft are all likely superstars.  With the new CBA, one of those players on a rookie contract is a serious advantage against teams that don't have one

2.) we don't panic sign a free agent this year, since none of them are championship pieces and 2013-2014 is a weak free agent class.  2014-2015 is an extremely strong free agent class, so if we wait until then we can sign someone a lot more talented and we can free up more cap room in the meantime to make space for them

Cashing in our picks right now or singing a mediocre free agent to big money is a fool's errand.  If we had gotten Josh Smith and Monta Ellis, we still wouldn't have won a championship this year and we would be in salary cap hell for the next 5 years.  We can win all the first round playoff series in the world, but if we aren't winning a championship what is the point?  Boston only hangs championship banners in their rafters.  Taking a year off is our only real chance at seriously competing in the near future.

Here is the thing. Teams like the Bobcats Suns etc...don't plan to tank forever either they just keep finishing with bad records. If you don't develop young players and just do whatever with them then it will promote a losing culture. The draft class on paper is tremendous but remember that these are all high school kids who were playing against random high schoolers.

A bust for me would be Darko or Beasley both #2 overall picks that busted. Darko was heavily hyped. We do not have to cash in picks right now. But say next year the Celtics get the 7th pick and are offered one of the free agents for next year in a sign and trade. If this team still has Rondo then you would have to do it. The whole point is to eventually win. And for everyone that didn't understand the exact point of this thread it was to show the younger fans what it was like in the good old days of Wesley/Fox/Antoine/Sherman Douglas/Alton Lister etc...you know really really good players. I remember when Eric Montrosse was supposed to be the answer too. Jerome Moiso? Come on down! Ron Mercer?!!

Lottery is never a sure thing. If you get the opportunity to get a legit star you would have to take it.

As for Rondo getting traded for nothing. I would say half the board would support that idea since its in the interests of tanking.

the point is to sign players to long term, big money contracts, but only those players who you fully believe are worth it and will take you to the finals. It has a negative effect long term to sign hyped free agents to long term deals or trade for them because they are the only good players available. That's why we passed on Josh Smith this summer imo, and it was a great decision.

Don't forget, we signed or traded for guys like Dominique Wilkins, Xavier McDaniel, Rick Fox, Pervis Ellison, David Wesley, Dee Brown, Kenny Anderson, and Vin Baker to large deals during the dark ages. That's what kills rebuilds.

[cb8883]

Nobody is saying we want to tank for the next 8 years.  Literally nobody.  Pro-tanking people are largely saying:

1.) we just tank this year, because it's a strong draft and we don't have enough to go for a championship as it stands. The top 7 players in this draft are all likely superstars.  With the new CBA, one of those players on a rookie contract is a serious advantage against teams that don't have one

2.) we don't panic sign a free agent this year, since none of them are championship pieces and 2013-2014 is a weak free agent class.  2014-2015 is an extremely strong free agent class, so if we wait until then we can sign someone a lot more talented and we can free up more cap room in the meantime to make space for them

Cashing in our picks right now or singing a mediocre free agent to big money is a fool's errand.  If we had gotten Josh Smith and Monta Ellis, we still wouldn't have won a championship this year and we would be in salary cap hell for the next 5 years.  We can win all the first round playoff series in the world, but if we aren't winning a championship what is the point?  Boston only hangs championship banners in their rafters.  Taking a year off is our only real chance at seriously competing in the near future.

Here is the thing. Teams like the Bobcats Suns etc...don't plan to tank forever either they just keep finishing with bad records. If you don't develop young players and just do whatever with them then it will promote a losing culture. The draft class on paper is tremendous but remember that these are all high school kids who were playing against random high schoolers.

A bust for me would be Darko or Beasley both #2 overall picks that busted. Darko was heavily hyped. We do not have to cash in picks right now. But say next year the Celtics get the 7th pick and are offered one of the free agents for next year in a sign and trade. If this team still has Rondo then you would have to do it. The whole point is to eventually win. And for everyone that didn't understand the exact point of this thread it was to show the younger fans what it was like in the good old days of Wesley/Fox/Antoine/Sherman Douglas/Alton Lister etc...you know really really good players. I remember when Eric Montrosse was supposed to be the answer too. Jerome Moiso? Come on down! Ron Mercer?!!

Lottery is never a sure thing. If you get the opportunity to get a legit star you would have to take it.

As for Rondo getting traded for nothing. I would say half the board would support that idea since its in the interests of tanking.

the point is to sign players to long term, big money contracts, but only those players who you fully believe are worth it and will take you to the finals. It has a negative effect long term to sign hyped free agents to long term deals or trade for them because they are the only good players available. That's why we passed on Josh Smith this summer imo, and it was a great decision.

Don't forget, we signed or traded for guys like Dominique Wilkins, Xavier McDaniel, Rick Fox, Pervis Ellison, David Wesley, Dee Brown, Kenny Anderson, and Vin Baker to large deals during the dark ages. That's what kills rebuilds.

Listen. This team absolutely needs to deal Rondo for ANYTHING. I think Danny is doing a terrible disservice to this tank to not pull the trigger on that Pistons trade. Knight is much younger and the expiring helps too. Rondo just is not a good player without KG. However, he would still help this team make the playoffs or get close, which means we need to sell him off. If you can only get 40 cents on the dollar then so be it.

I don't care how long the rebuild takes. I love watching athletic teams with potential and I'm stoked for this season where we might only win 20 games but it will at least be up tempo play. At least the regular season games mean something now. I hope we play great for 3 quarters and then Stevens gets with the program and sits whoever is hot for the 4th. We need to lose as much as possible. I do not want to see a HOF talent like Wiggins or any of the other top guys in this draft terrorizing this team for a decade while we're stuck with a 2nd rate PG like Rondo. Call Miami and see if they'll do Rondo and a future 2nd for Chalmers. At least that's a guy who can create his own shot. Plus again he helps with what we should be doing. TANKING!

[rondohondo]

Nobody is saying we want to tank for the next 8 years.  Literally nobody.  Pro-tanking people are largely saying:

1.) we just tank this year, because it's a strong draft and we don't have enough to go for a championship as it stands. The top 7 players in this draft are all likely superstars.  With the new CBA, one of those players on a rookie contract is a serious advantage against teams that don't have one

2.) we don't panic sign a free agent this year, since none of them are championship pieces and 2013-2014 is a weak free agent class.  2014-2015 is an extremely strong free agent class, so if we wait until then we can sign someone a lot more talented and we can free up more cap room in the meantime to make space for them

Cashing in our picks right now or singing a mediocre free agent to big money is a fool's errand.  If we had gotten Josh Smith and Monta Ellis, we still wouldn't have won a championship this year and we would be in salary cap hell for the next 5 years.  We can win all the first round playoff series in the world, but if we aren't winning a championship what is the point?  Boston only hangs championship banners in their rafters.  Taking a year off is our only real chance at seriously competing in the near future.

Here is the thing. Teams like the Bobcats Suns etc...don't plan to tank forever either they just keep finishing with bad records. If you don't develop young players and just do whatever with them then it will promote a losing culture. The draft class on paper is tremendous but remember that these are all high school kids who were playing against random high schoolers.

A bust for me would be Darko or Beasley both #2 overall picks that busted. Darko was heavily hyped. We do not have to cash in picks right now. But say next year the Celtics get the 7th pick and are offered one of the free agents for next year in a sign and trade. If this team still has Rondo then you would have to do it. The whole point is to eventually win. And for everyone that didn't understand the exact point of this thread it was to show the younger fans what it was like in the good old days of Wesley/Fox/Antoine/Sherman Douglas/Alton Lister etc...you know really really good players. I remember when Eric Montrosse was supposed to be the answer too. Jerome Moiso? Come on down! Ron Mercer?!!

Lottery is never a sure thing. If you get the opportunity to get a legit star you would have to take it.

As for Rondo getting traded for nothing. I would say half the board would support that idea since its in the interests of tanking.

the point is to sign players to long term, big money contracts, but only those players who you fully believe are worth it and will take you to the finals. It has a negative effect long term to sign hyped free agents to long term deals or trade for them because they are the only good players available. That's why we passed on Josh Smith this summer imo, and it was a great decision.

Don't forget, we signed or traded for guys like Dominique Wilkins, Xavier McDaniel, Rick Fox, Pervis Ellison, David Wesley, Dee Brown, Kenny Anderson, and Vin Baker to large deals during the dark ages. That's what kills rebuilds.

Listen. This team absolutely needs to deal Rondo for ANYTHING. I think Danny is doing a terrible disservice to this tank to not pull the trigger on that Pistons trade. Knight is much younger and the expiring helps too. Rondo just is not a good player without KG. However, he would still help this team make the playoffs or get close, which means we need to sell him off. If you can only get 40 cents on the dollar then so be it.

I don't care how long the rebuild takes. I love watching athletic teams with potential and I'm stoked for this season where we might only win 20 games but it will at least be up tempo play. At least the regular season games mean something now. I hope we play great for 3 quarters and then Stevens gets with the program and sits whoever is hot for the 4th. We need to lose as much as possible. I do not want to see a HOF talent like Wiggins or any of the other top guys in this draft terrorizing this team for a decade while we're stuck with a 2nd rate PG like Rondo. Call Miami and see if they'll do Rondo and a future 2nd for Chalmers. At least that's a guy who can create his own shot. Plus again he helps with what we should be doing. TANKING!

Yea Rondo clearly sucks without KG , I mean he only averaged 17/10/10 in the 2008 playoffs when KG was out .Hasn't even hit his prime yet, but he clearly has to go, even if not getting anything of value in return . Wow......

[nostar]

I'm pro-tanking in 2013/14 and I'd like to keep Rondo. I hear he might be ready to start the season.

I think our team with Rondo is an 8th seed. I think without it we're in the bottom 10 in the league.

Ideally what Danny would do is convince Rondo to sit out a lot of next season to "heal". Yes there will be media scrutiny but who cares. Hopefully we will have Rondo back around the trade deadline (or more likely 2-3 weeks before it) and he'll be the talk of the NBA for those weeks. We'll either get a ton of assets for him at the deadline or we will keep him and try to "develop our young guys" for the rest of the season or we trade him and tank like crazy. There is no reason Rondo has to go. With some creative coaching we can have a bottom-5 record and Rondo. Doc had Pierce and Al Jefferson in 2006/7 and he came up with the 2nd worst record in the NBA.

So let's let things play out and do what is best depending on the situation. Right now what's best is positioning ourselves for the 2014 draft class. Ainge made that clear enough by signing no one.

[nickagneta]

While logical is probably the wrong wording this is a possible scenario with some highly probable variables in it.

Rondo coming back and being Rondo is extremely possible if not likely.

Drafting someone high, even in a draft class loaded with top end talent, that turns into a bust, happens all the time(Darko, Marvin Williams, Michael Olowakandi) so that is a likely scenario as well.

Drafting a superstar and having them leave for bigger and better things because they are impatient with management is probably THE most likely variable out of all the OP discussed(Lebron, Howard, Bosh, KG, Chris Paul, etc.).

So is this scenario possible? Absolutely. Is it likely? No, because every scenario coming true is probably not going to happen. But many could which makes a full fledged tank a seriously bad idea.

[slamtheking]

I think someone would argue with your 'logic'

[hwangjini_1]

this is more like the "irrational fear scenario" than a "logical scenario"

thank you for drawing the distinction. a tp for you.

to echo some points above, not only is tanking only ONE option, so is accumulating a boatload of good players with the first round picks even if tanking in 2014 doesnt work.

from there, i trust danny to do the voodoo that he do so well. 

as for 2013-14, i am actually looking forward to a low/no stress season for a change. instead, i am looking forward to watching the younger players learn to play under stevens' system. heck, i am even looking forward to seeing whether some of the baby celtics are nba caliber players - melo, iverson, pressy. enough speculation and talk, let's see them really play.

my mantra will something along the lines of.... "what's that you said? the celtics got beaten like rented mules again? that's ok, just tell me how the kids played."

it will be a fun year. and after that, the rebuilding starts in ernest.